Penn State Future Wager (+2650)!!!

JBpicks76 · Nov 1, 2017

$100 to win $2,650 on Penn State to win National Championship:

All about value here...buying PSU at their lowest point.
This team has 1 loss on the road by 1 pt. to a very good Ohio St. Team. I feel like if PSU can run the table and finish 11-1 they have a legit shot to make the final 4.....and anything can happen from there.

My gut tells me all PAC 12 and Big 12
Teams will end the year with 2 + losses....I also think Ga losses twice and ND will lose 1 more as well....and if Clemson's QB isn't 100% they could easily drop another one (possibly this week).....and don't think Ohio St can't lose at Michigan - cause anything goes in that game.

The point is it's way to early to write Penn state off so I think it's worth it to take a shot here as this is really nice value.

I'm happy to hear anyone's opinion on this - thanks!

REDEYE · Nov 1, 2017

Bigger odds then that to get in imo , let alone win it.. They have no quality wins , will not play in a conference championship game.. resume will not stack up with any 1 loss teams , especially teams with an extra game that wins that wins their conference.

8ate · Nov 1, 2017

And the Buckeyes are there..gl..!!

JBpicks76 · Nov 1, 2017

Red Eye - I appreciate the feedback as I respect your opinion......by no means am I recommending this play - I'm up a decent amount YTD (so far) so I'm purely taking a stab at a long shot here:

One thing to keep in mind is PSU only needs to come in at #4 to have a shot.....I ageee that currently there might be 1-loss teams with a better resume BUT will there be 4 one or zero loss teams (not including PSU) at the end of the year. I'm betting that there wont as a lot of these teams will start canceling each other out.
Also - when it's all said and done I think Michigan is gonna be a better win than people think.....just because Penn State beat them down in a revenge game at home, at night doesn't make Michigan a bad team- there gonna play Wisconsin and Ohio St at the end of the year and I bet they beat 1 of them which probably puts them at 9-3 which is pretty solid.

REDEYE · Nov 1, 2017

I think all of these teams with 1 loss get in before Penn ST..

all 3 Big 12 teams , obviously only 1 has that possibility
ACC champ with 1 loss
Bama
GA
Auburn even with 2 losses
Ohio St
Notre Dame

I would rather grab Oklahoma at 40/1 even though their not a s good

all of these teams have a better chance of improving their resume . Penn St doesn't

JBpicks76 · Nov 1, 2017

....and yes I agree that of course the Buckeyes are there but they still have to play at Iowa, Mich St, and at Michigan - and then possibly Wisconsin....so I know everyone is back on the OSU bandwagon but the reality is they could easily lose 1 of those games....if not even 2. That's the beautiful thing about college football....u just never know!

JBpicks76 · Nov 2, 2017

Hey Red Eye....so if we're going by your list you've got penn state at #8....which makes sense and is basically where there at right now.

But....if all Big 12 teams have 2 losses(very possible) and ND loses to either Standford or Miami(very possible) that puts PSU at 6......and 3 of the other teams u listed are in the SEC - we all know there not getting 3 teams in as Auburn still has to play Ga (possibly twice) and Bama....so at the very least that moves PSU up to 5...possibly 4 - and that's not even considering the ACC having a 1 loss team - as it's possible they won't as well.

Anyways - clearly a lot of things need to fall PSU's way so we'll see - should be fun to watch down the stretch- good luck with all your plays!!!

exploited17 · Nov 2, 2017

I would say....I don't see Penn St winning it all. I just don't thnk they are the best team. That isn't the point of the wager though. There is value at 26.5-1

solrosenberg · Nov 2, 2017

Not a bad idea at +2650, I could see some weird stuff happening the next 4 weekends and PSU making the playoffs.
McSorley is the type of mobile QB that traditionally gives Alabama trouble.
No reason PSU couldn't beat a Big 12 team or a Georgia in a playoff game. Good luck.

REDEYE · Nov 2, 2017

the problem I see for Penn St is they don't get in over any 1 loss team, so they need a few losses by a few teams. resume doesn't match up with any 1 loss team , and the schedule doesn't give them any boost to their resume

PeePee · Nov 3, 2017

I like Pen st chance to win out and once in playoffs they have a chance with that offense... problem is their remaining schedule is too weak to jump any of the top 6 teams, even if Georgia loses the SEC champ. Their only chance is winning the B10 champ convincingly.
The comm has shown so far that they prefer strength of schedule/wins over record.... see Wisconsin.