Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 9
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
11/1/17
During the first six weeks of the season, there was not an individual week in which underdogs covered less than half of the time. Over the past two weeks, 'dogs have gone just a paltry 7-19-2 against the spread (ATS). As we look ahead to another light slate with just 13 games on the board, we'll be expecting 'dogs to go back to their winning, or at least covering, ways.
Taking an underdog in general is a contrarian strategy on its own. Public bettors love favorites, home teams, popular teams, etc. According to Bet Labs Sports, 'dogs have received more than 50 percent of bets in just over 20 percent of games since 2003. However, underdogs have done their fair share and then some by covering 50.4 percent of the time. Since square, public bettors are always loading up on favorites, sportsbooks will shade those lines and create value on the unpopular 'dogs.
This week, we'll specifically be looking at underdogs that are coming off three straight losses. Since 2003, these teams have covered at a 57.9 percent rate.
Why it works
Due to poor recent performances, teams that have lost three straight games are cast aside by the public. For this week's sample, none of the three teams are currently receiving more than 40-percent of spread bets.
All of these teams are 'dogs and expected to lose for a fourth straight time, but who's to say they can't at least cover? Though their combined record reads 0-9 over the past few weeks, their ATS record is 3-5-1. Not anything to write home about, but also not a trainwreck. With football being a game of inches, we expect things to even out in the long run, as regression is king in sports gambling.
Barely anybody expects these teams to cover, yet alone win. We'll want to stay on the side that the sportsbooks are rooting for and take these woebegone teams plus the points.
Week 9 system matches
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Both of these teams have surprised bettors and football fans during the first half of the season. At 5-2 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS, Buffalo has been one of the kindest teams to sports bettors. They're almost certain to eclipse their preseason win total of 6.5, which had minus-150 juice on the under.
Though they've lost three straight, the Jets have managed to cover in two of the three and have a 5-2-1 ATS record on the season. They are also very close to going over their season win total of 3.5 (u-155.)
Set to be played on color rush Thursday, this game opened BUF -3.5 around most of the market, but has gone to the key number of -3 at many books, as sharp bettors have jumped at the opportunity to take the Jets +3.5 at home. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has the line at BUF -3.5, but the juice on the Jets has moved to minus-120, indicating that the line may soon move to -3.
With both teams due to regress a bit, we'll take the home 'dog getting just 28 percent of spread bets.
The pick: Jets +3.5
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles
The Broncos have not only failed to win in three straight, they've failed to cover three straight as well. At 2-4-1 ATS, they're in the bottom 25 percentile of the league when it comes to spread betting. Meanwhile, they'll be taking on an Eagles team that continues to impress both fans and oddsmakers. You can imagine which side public bettors will be on for this game.
Though he isn't guaranteed to play this weekend, Philadelphia may have a new option on offense in Jay Ajayi. He isn't having a great season and won't cause oddsmakers to move the line, but his addition to an already strong offense will only bolster the public's expectations.
Westgate opened their line with Philly as a 7.5-point home favorite, but it has already moved to -8 at a number of offshore books. Given the trends, you may want to wait to get a better number, although 8 and 9 aren't exactly key numbers in the NFL.
The pick: Denver +7.5
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
This game may be the most intriguing of the bunch in my mind, as Houston is coming off an exciting loss against the Seahawks and the Colts are coming off a close loss to the Bengals in which a pick-six kept them from a double-digit upset.
With Houston's offense running like a well-oiled machine right now and the Colts' defense being one of the worst in the league, oddsmakers are giving the Texans a huge edge. They opened at -12.5 at Westgate and -13 around the offshore market. Though two-thirds of early spread bets are on the Texans, 70 percent of dollars are on the Colts, according to Sports Insights. We'll look to follow the money and take Indy once again as a double-digit 'dog.
The pick: Colts +12.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
11/1/17
During the first six weeks of the season, there was not an individual week in which underdogs covered less than half of the time. Over the past two weeks, 'dogs have gone just a paltry 7-19-2 against the spread (ATS). As we look ahead to another light slate with just 13 games on the board, we'll be expecting 'dogs to go back to their winning, or at least covering, ways.
Taking an underdog in general is a contrarian strategy on its own. Public bettors love favorites, home teams, popular teams, etc. According to Bet Labs Sports, 'dogs have received more than 50 percent of bets in just over 20 percent of games since 2003. However, underdogs have done their fair share and then some by covering 50.4 percent of the time. Since square, public bettors are always loading up on favorites, sportsbooks will shade those lines and create value on the unpopular 'dogs.
This week, we'll specifically be looking at underdogs that are coming off three straight losses. Since 2003, these teams have covered at a 57.9 percent rate.
Why it works
Due to poor recent performances, teams that have lost three straight games are cast aside by the public. For this week's sample, none of the three teams are currently receiving more than 40-percent of spread bets.
All of these teams are 'dogs and expected to lose for a fourth straight time, but who's to say they can't at least cover? Though their combined record reads 0-9 over the past few weeks, their ATS record is 3-5-1. Not anything to write home about, but also not a trainwreck. With football being a game of inches, we expect things to even out in the long run, as regression is king in sports gambling.
Barely anybody expects these teams to cover, yet alone win. We'll want to stay on the side that the sportsbooks are rooting for and take these woebegone teams plus the points.
Week 9 system matches
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Both of these teams have surprised bettors and football fans during the first half of the season. At 5-2 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS, Buffalo has been one of the kindest teams to sports bettors. They're almost certain to eclipse their preseason win total of 6.5, which had minus-150 juice on the under.
Though they've lost three straight, the Jets have managed to cover in two of the three and have a 5-2-1 ATS record on the season. They are also very close to going over their season win total of 3.5 (u-155.)
Set to be played on color rush Thursday, this game opened BUF -3.5 around most of the market, but has gone to the key number of -3 at many books, as sharp bettors have jumped at the opportunity to take the Jets +3.5 at home. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has the line at BUF -3.5, but the juice on the Jets has moved to minus-120, indicating that the line may soon move to -3.
With both teams due to regress a bit, we'll take the home 'dog getting just 28 percent of spread bets.
The pick: Jets +3.5
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles
The Broncos have not only failed to win in three straight, they've failed to cover three straight as well. At 2-4-1 ATS, they're in the bottom 25 percentile of the league when it comes to spread betting. Meanwhile, they'll be taking on an Eagles team that continues to impress both fans and oddsmakers. You can imagine which side public bettors will be on for this game.
Though he isn't guaranteed to play this weekend, Philadelphia may have a new option on offense in Jay Ajayi. He isn't having a great season and won't cause oddsmakers to move the line, but his addition to an already strong offense will only bolster the public's expectations.
Westgate opened their line with Philly as a 7.5-point home favorite, but it has already moved to -8 at a number of offshore books. Given the trends, you may want to wait to get a better number, although 8 and 9 aren't exactly key numbers in the NFL.
The pick: Denver +7.5
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
This game may be the most intriguing of the bunch in my mind, as Houston is coming off an exciting loss against the Seahawks and the Colts are coming off a close loss to the Bengals in which a pick-six kept them from a double-digit upset.
With Houston's offense running like a well-oiled machine right now and the Colts' defense being one of the worst in the league, oddsmakers are giving the Texans a huge edge. They opened at -12.5 at Westgate and -13 around the offshore market. Though two-thirds of early spread bets are on the Texans, 70 percent of dollars are on the Colts, according to Sports Insights. We'll look to follow the money and take Indy once again as a double-digit 'dog.
The pick: Colts +12.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
