Lions simply cannot run the ball. The back is too small and the line can’t block. Stafford is elusive, so he can buy some time getting out of the pocket on pass plays. That is that offense’s only saving grace. Packers’ quarterback must show improvement since the Saints game. He has to connect on some pass plays. Green Bay ran the ball well against Saints. I’m sure the Packers’ defense will play inspired football. Not only is it a divisional matchup, but also, teams do not like to lose back to backs at home. That is a real embarrassment. Coming off the bye, McCarthy should have a set of plays for the young QB to execute. I’ve been looking at this one, too. I think a Packers win is very doable.
I don't think it will be a slam but my numbers say the Packers win outright in close game but I'm making the assumption that Hundley plays at a competent level ie not at a Simian level.
Lions are almost a good team but short a couple of playmakers. 7 trips to redzone with 5 field goals to show is not going to get it done in competitive NFL. They need to get a bit better in the skill positions to make the most of Staffords talent, rather than relying on him to do it all. A bit like the situation with the Colts and Andrew Luck.
GB defense not as good as Steelers, but Lions won't have homefield advantage. I cap it around Lions -2 on neutral field, so +1 at Lambeau. I made an allowance of 4 pts for the drop off from Rogers to Hundley. He was pretty good at college and seems to be football smart and may currently be a bit under rated based on his low draft position. Also nice to see Rogers helping him out with his preparation.
The drop off from Brady to Cassel a few years back worked out at around 6pts, and Hundley hopefully better than Cassel. Rogers probably close to Brady level.
Its also forecast to be cold at time of game and Stafford is not quite as effective in cold weather. Situational stat.
Lions are almost a good team but short a couple of playmakers. 7 trips to redzone with 5 field goals to show is not going to get it done in competitive NFL. They need to get a bit better in the skill positions to make the most of Staffords talent, rather than relying on him to do it all. A bit like the situation with the Colts and Andrew Luck.
GB defense not as good as Steelers, but Lions won't have homefield advantage. I cap it around Lions -2 on neutral field, so +1 at Lambeau. I made an allowance of 4 pts for the drop off from Rogers to Hundley. He was pretty good at college and seems to be football smart and may currently be a bit under rated based on his low draft position. Also nice to see Rogers helping him out with his preparation.
The drop off from Brady to Cassel a few years back worked out at around 6pts, and Hundley hopefully better than Cassel. Rogers probably close to Brady level.
Its also forecast to be cold at time of game and Stafford is not quite as effective in cold weather. Situational stat.
I think there is a HUGE dropoff from Rodgers to Hundley. Sure, they will change the game plan to accommodate Hundley's limitations, it will be a conservative game plan. GBs strength is Rodgers and the many WR, TE, and RB receiving options. Rodgers is one of the best NFL deep throwers in the last decade, a rare commodity. Can Hundley get back there and wing it all over the field, deep?
SO with Hundley, GB is not GB anymore. IMO the line off a bye with Rodgers healthy would have been GB -6 or -7, an 8.5 or 9.5 pt difference.
(again, dropoff from a banged up Bradford to Keenum is not much if anything. Dropoff from Palmer to Stanton is not that much. Dropoff from Carr to Manuel is huge though Carr has been inconsistent this year... losing a QB varies by team. Flacco is bad but Mallett is very bad)
SO with Hundley, GB is not GB anymore. IMO the line off a bye with Rodgers healthy would have been GB -6 or -7, an 8.5 or 9.5 pt difference.
(again, dropoff from a banged up Bradford to Keenum is not much if anything. Dropoff from Palmer to Stanton is not that much. Dropoff from Carr to Manuel is huge though Carr has been inconsistent this year... losing a QB varies by team. Flacco is bad but Mallett is very bad)
Good points, thanks. I like the Ravens analysis.
Do you see any pick up for Denver going to Oswelleiler over Simian?
Hundley's play is the big uncertainty for this game. Cassel also was playing for BB which may have reduced the drop off, McCarthy not at same level as BB. Think I'll pass on this one. 5 Lions field goals may be enough....
GB? Ah, no.
