Best bets for Buffalo-New York
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/2/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at New York Jets
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent on Buffalo
Steele: These two teams have combined to go 9-3-2 ATS this year when not playing against each other. In the season-opening meeting, Buffalo dominated 21-12 with a 408-214 yardage edge. The Jets were expected to flirt with a winless season at the time, but eight weeks later, they are 3-5 with close losses to the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. I feel like the Bills are the better team, but I like Jets here. These teams are close statistically, with Buffalo registering a differential of minus-44 yards per game and the Jets at minus-53. Buffalo has been a division road favorite three times in 10 years and lost all of them against the spread, including at Miami and New York last year. The Jets are plus-49 yards per game at home, and Buffalo is minus-119 on the road. Finally, the Bills must win by more than three to cover, so I like the home 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Sharp: As winners of four of their past five, the Bills appear to be heading in the opposite direction of the Jets, who have dropped three straight. Buffalo traded for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin at the deadline on Tuesday, and there is a renewed sense of optimism in Buffalo as it pushes for the playoffs.
The Bills should have plenty of success on the ground against the Jets. In the year to date, the Bills are an average run offense, but they have faced a top-10 schedule of run defenses. After their bye week, they came out against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' and Oakland Raiders' run defenses, which rank below average, and LeSean McCoy averaged nearly 150 total yards in those two games. In fact, against above-average run defenses (Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals), McCoy never hit 100 combined yards in any game and averaged just 67 yards per game, as the team went 1-2. But against bottom-half run defenses, McCoy exceeded 100 combined yards in every game (averaged 138 yards per game), as the Bills went 4-0 in those contests. Still, while the Bills are the better, scrappier team, I believe we see a great effort from the Jets to offset what McCoy will bring to the table. McCoy will get his yardage, but this game could be tight to the end.
Pick: Pass
Rynning: No question about it, the Bills will miss Marcell Dareus on the defensive side of the football. However, the chemistry has been outstanding for the unit this season, as it's more about the group carrying out the scheme than just the individual talent. The Bills are allowing just 16.4 points per game. Of course, they did add to their team at the deadline on the other side of the ball by obtaining Benjamin, but on a short week, it's difficult to envision him making an impact if he even plays. This is still Josh McCown against Tyrod Taylor, and the two below-average quarterbacks will put points at a premium.
Pick: Under 42.5
Clay prediction: Buffalo 23, New York 20
Parolin's prop bets
82.5 rushing yards by LeSean McCoy (O/U -110): Entering the season, the supposed lone strength of the Jets roster was their defensive line. Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams composed one of the better three-man units in the league, but Richardson was traded to Seattle before Week 1, and the Jets rush defense is a far cry from the unit that allowed 3.7 yards per rush last year, fourth in the league. New York's 4.3 yards per rush allowed ranks 23rd, and the Jets have allowed over 128 rush yards per game (27th). The Jets have certainly been better than expected in some ways this season, but the rushing defense hasn't been up to expectations.
But Shady hasn't been great either. McCoy is averaging 3.8 yards per rush, 31st in the NFL, after Buffalo's running game was dominant last year. McCoy is ninth in yards per game (74.4), and it's basically all coming before contact. McCoy is averaging a league-worst 1.14 yards after contact per rush, well behind the next-closest rusher (Samaje Perine, 1.33). The problem for New York? McCoy's strength and weakness mirrors the split of the Jets defense, which has the third-highest yards allowed after contact per rush average in the league, but ranks 14th in yards before contact. That 2.2 yard average is enough space for a player with Shady's burst to take advantage and hit the over, especially given the quality of the Bills defense and the likelihood it will limit the Jets' passing game.
Play: Over
55.5 receiving yards by Robby Anderson (O/U -110): Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse aren't a traditional top pairing of wide receivers, but both rank in the top 50 in receiving yards this year. Anderson leads the Jets with 54.4 receiving yards this year, but has been all over the map. He has as many games above 75 receiving yards as he does below 30 (three), and one of the unders came in Week 1 against the Bills (four catches for 22 yards). Anderson saw eight targets in the game, but the average throw distance on his completions was 2.0 yards downfield. The Bills secondary has allowed three touchdowns on wide receiver targets, with 10 interceptions. They allowed 6.7 yards per target to wide receivers this season, fifth best in the league, and that average actually shrinks to 6.3 yards per target on throws outside the numbers, where Anderson plies his trade. Anderson would need nine targets to pass 55 yards in the game at that rate (something he's done once this season), and given his struggles in Week 1 against the same Bills defense, the Jets may need to rely on Kearse and Austin Seferian-Jenkins to move the ball through the air.
Play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/2/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at New York Jets
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent on Buffalo
Steele: These two teams have combined to go 9-3-2 ATS this year when not playing against each other. In the season-opening meeting, Buffalo dominated 21-12 with a 408-214 yardage edge. The Jets were expected to flirt with a winless season at the time, but eight weeks later, they are 3-5 with close losses to the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. I feel like the Bills are the better team, but I like Jets here. These teams are close statistically, with Buffalo registering a differential of minus-44 yards per game and the Jets at minus-53. Buffalo has been a division road favorite three times in 10 years and lost all of them against the spread, including at Miami and New York last year. The Jets are plus-49 yards per game at home, and Buffalo is minus-119 on the road. Finally, the Bills must win by more than three to cover, so I like the home 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Sharp: As winners of four of their past five, the Bills appear to be heading in the opposite direction of the Jets, who have dropped three straight. Buffalo traded for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin at the deadline on Tuesday, and there is a renewed sense of optimism in Buffalo as it pushes for the playoffs.
The Bills should have plenty of success on the ground against the Jets. In the year to date, the Bills are an average run offense, but they have faced a top-10 schedule of run defenses. After their bye week, they came out against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' and Oakland Raiders' run defenses, which rank below average, and LeSean McCoy averaged nearly 150 total yards in those two games. In fact, against above-average run defenses (Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals), McCoy never hit 100 combined yards in any game and averaged just 67 yards per game, as the team went 1-2. But against bottom-half run defenses, McCoy exceeded 100 combined yards in every game (averaged 138 yards per game), as the Bills went 4-0 in those contests. Still, while the Bills are the better, scrappier team, I believe we see a great effort from the Jets to offset what McCoy will bring to the table. McCoy will get his yardage, but this game could be tight to the end.
Pick: Pass
Rynning: No question about it, the Bills will miss Marcell Dareus on the defensive side of the football. However, the chemistry has been outstanding for the unit this season, as it's more about the group carrying out the scheme than just the individual talent. The Bills are allowing just 16.4 points per game. Of course, they did add to their team at the deadline on the other side of the ball by obtaining Benjamin, but on a short week, it's difficult to envision him making an impact if he even plays. This is still Josh McCown against Tyrod Taylor, and the two below-average quarterbacks will put points at a premium.
Pick: Under 42.5
Clay prediction: Buffalo 23, New York 20
Parolin's prop bets
82.5 rushing yards by LeSean McCoy (O/U -110): Entering the season, the supposed lone strength of the Jets roster was their defensive line. Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams composed one of the better three-man units in the league, but Richardson was traded to Seattle before Week 1, and the Jets rush defense is a far cry from the unit that allowed 3.7 yards per rush last year, fourth in the league. New York's 4.3 yards per rush allowed ranks 23rd, and the Jets have allowed over 128 rush yards per game (27th). The Jets have certainly been better than expected in some ways this season, but the rushing defense hasn't been up to expectations.
But Shady hasn't been great either. McCoy is averaging 3.8 yards per rush, 31st in the NFL, after Buffalo's running game was dominant last year. McCoy is ninth in yards per game (74.4), and it's basically all coming before contact. McCoy is averaging a league-worst 1.14 yards after contact per rush, well behind the next-closest rusher (Samaje Perine, 1.33). The problem for New York? McCoy's strength and weakness mirrors the split of the Jets defense, which has the third-highest yards allowed after contact per rush average in the league, but ranks 14th in yards before contact. That 2.2 yard average is enough space for a player with Shady's burst to take advantage and hit the over, especially given the quality of the Bills defense and the likelihood it will limit the Jets' passing game.
Play: Over
55.5 receiving yards by Robby Anderson (O/U -110): Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse aren't a traditional top pairing of wide receivers, but both rank in the top 50 in receiving yards this year. Anderson leads the Jets with 54.4 receiving yards this year, but has been all over the map. He has as many games above 75 receiving yards as he does below 30 (three), and one of the unders came in Week 1 against the Bills (four catches for 22 yards). Anderson saw eight targets in the game, but the average throw distance on his completions was 2.0 yards downfield. The Bills secondary has allowed three touchdowns on wide receiver targets, with 10 interceptions. They allowed 6.7 yards per target to wide receivers this season, fifth best in the league, and that average actually shrinks to 6.3 yards per target on throws outside the numbers, where Anderson plies his trade. Anderson would need nine targets to pass 55 yards in the game at that rate (something he's done once this season), and given his struggles in Week 1 against the same Bills defense, the Jets may need to rely on Kearse and Austin Seferian-Jenkins to move the ball through the air.
Play: Under
