Best CFB Week 10 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/2/17
Our experts are back with their Week 10 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 10 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-4-1 in Week 9 (31-39-2 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 4-1 in Week 9 (28-14-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 5-1-1 in Week 9 (36-28-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday afternoon.
Common games
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5)
Steele: The Big 12 moved this game up to the earliest it has been played since 2004, as they were perhaps expecting a rematch in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma is averaging 203 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average, and Sooners running back Abdul Adams is fully healthy. He's averaging an absurd 10.4 yards per carry, and Oklahoma State has allowed three foes to rush for over 200 yards. Backing up Adams will be Rodney Anderson, who has come back from a serious neck injury to rush for 328 yards and 7.6 yards per carry over the last two games. Each team has faced one top-10 foe: Oklahoma beat Ohio State on the road by 15, while Oklahoma State lost to TCU at home by 13. I will take the Sooners as a 'dog and call for the outright upset.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 40
Coughlin: I'm not sure there is a player tougher to bet against in college football than Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield. The moxy, the guts, the toughness and the talent make him one of my favorites to back on any given Saturday, especially as an underdog in a rivalry road game. I picked the Sooners when they went to Columbus earlier this year because of the continuity of the senior signal-caller and his first year head coach Lincoln Riley, and even though the opponent might have a closer relationship between Mason Rudolph and Mike Gundy (seeing how Gundy used to run the Cowboys' offense), I'll back the visitors here. While plenty of people point out how bad the Sooners' defense has been, that unit was pretty damn good in Columbus, and I think it has the talent to mirror the defensive blueprint that TCU laid out when they defeated the Cowboys last month in Stillwater.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 31
Fallica: Rudolph hasn't looked right the last couple of weeks. He has attempted just seven passes thrown 20 yards in the air (9.7 percent of his pass attempts, down from 17.6 percent in the first six games), and he produced a season-low five attempts thrown at least 15 yards in the air last week. That leads me to believe something isn't right with the All-American-caliber signal-caller. The Sooners haven't been at their focused best since the Ohio State upset win, but on the road against their in-state rival as an underdog makes me think we'll see a better defensive effort and a fiery Baker Mayfield.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 44, Oklahoma State 38
No. 4 Clemson Tigers (-7.5) at No. 20 NC State Wolfpack
Steele: Clemson dominated Georgia Tech last week. The Tigers had allowed just 151 total yards before a meaningless touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter, which unfortunately cost them the cover. North Carolina State was held to just 263 total yards last week versus Notre Dame, and Clemson has a much better defense than the Fighting Irish. The Wolfpack do have a great defensive line -- despite allowing 318 rushing yards last week -- which can slow down the Tigers enough to keep this game low scoring. Last year with Deshaun Watson under center, Clemson had just 24 points versus NC State. With two defensive-minded teams, I'll call for this game to go under the total.
Pick: Under 51 points
Score: Clemson 27, NC State 20
Coughlin: This ACC matchup features two defensive lines featuring professional talent. Against Notre Dame last week, the Wolfpack's defensive line got handled by what I think is the best offensive line in the country to the tune of 318 rushing yards. They face a rushing attack that they are more accustomed to this week, as the Tigers' offense will be in the shotgun with Kelly Bryant running that spread offense, so I think NC State will be better this week. In last year's game, the Pack held the Tigers to 117 yards on the ground. Many people forget that the Clemson needed a missed field goal at the buzzer and then overtime to beat this NC State team. I think the home teams feeds off a great home crowd and keeps the game close in a loss.
ATS pick: NC State
Score: Clemson 26, NC State 21
Fallica: Last week was exactly what the Tigers needed, as Bryant looked healthy and the defensive line controlled the game. The winner basically locks up the ACC Atlantic this week, and that should help the Wolfpack bounce back from last week's loss in South Bend. I wonder how much of what happened last year is on the minds of Clemson's coaches and players, though. There will be no sneaking up on anyone this time. The Tigers have already gone on the road and throttled Louisville and Virginia Tech. Plus, NC State has some injuries it needs to worry about too. I have to make a pick in the common game, so I will side with Clemson.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 27, NC State 17
No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (-8.5) at No. 24 Michigan State Spartans
Steele: These two have faced four common opponents this year: Penn State has beaten Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan by 21.5 points per game, while Michigan State is 3-1 versus those teams with a point differential of only plus-1.7 points per game. Penn State struggled versus perhaps the best defensive line in the country last week, and while Michigan State is good on defense, they don't have the same type of athletes. Penn State has a large edge in my offensive rankings (No. 8 versus No. 52) with an even larger edge in my special teams rankings (No. 9 versus No. 111). Even in a tough spot off Michigan and Ohio State, my computer has the Nittany Lions by over two touchdowns, and I agree.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 30, Michigan State 14
Fallica: It was close on the scoreboard last week, but Penn State was statistically dominated by Ohio State. The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions 529-283 (6.8 to 4.4 yards per play). Penn State was unable to run at all (35 carries for 91 yards), and I don't know if the Lions will find running the ball much easier this week. After Penn State poured it on Michigan State last year in the fourth quarter in an effort to impress the CFP Committee (throwing with less than four minutes left in a 38-12 game), don't be surprised if Mark Dantonio and his team remember that. If Brian Lewerke and Felton Davis III play the way they did in the overtime loss at Northwestern, the Spartans have a real shot. Remember, MSU controls its destiny to get to the Big Ten title game and each of their conference games have been decided by one score. I expect this one will be, too. Michigan State has been a dangerous home underdog (and underdog in general) when getting a bunch of points.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Score: Michigan State 28, Penn State 27
Friday games
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida Atlantic Owls (-7.5)
Steele: Marshall lost to Florida International by 11 at home last week, as it was minus-three in turnover margin. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic beat Western Kentucky on the road by 14 last week, despite having nine fewer first downs. The Owls' first two touchdown drives were just 8 and 18 yards, and they trailed by eight in the fourth quarter. There's solid value with Marshall, as Florida Atlantic is more than a touchdown favorite. Marshall is plus-141 yards per game in C-USA play, while Florida Atlantic is plus-125. I will gladly take the extra value provided from last week's results.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 30, Florida Atlantic 27
Saturday games
No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
Steele: At the start of the year, I had Miami as the top team in the ACC Atlantic Division, and I still feel that way. The Canes have taken on the tougher schedule and won at Florida State. While they beat Georgia Tech by only one point, they did finish with a 200-yard edge. In Virginia Tech's biggest games, they were outgained by West Virginia by 123 yards and trailed Clemson by 21 before a late touchdown. Miami has a talented defensive front seven, and while it hasn't played to its potential, I expect it to do so this week. Miami has been winning a lot of close games, but is undefeated and a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) at Virginia Cavaliers
Steele: Georgia Tech beat Virginia by two touchdowns in a misleading game last year. Virginia had a 25-8 first down edge on the road, with the majority of Georgia Tech's points coming from four big plays, including a 24-yard interception return at the end of the game. The Jackets are off three straight misleading finals. They were outgained 481-281 by Miami, but lost by only one; they trailed Wake Forest at home by five late in the third quarter, but a 70-yard touchdown put them ahead by seven with 1:57 left and they won by 14; and they were dominated last week by Clemson (outgained 399-151) prior to a late drive for a garbage touchdown in their 14-point loss. Don't forget that Bronco Mendenhall is one of the best at defending the option.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Georgia Tech 21, Virginia 20
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-23.5)
Steele: Coastal Carolina has played five Power 5 teams and lost them all by an average score of 55-5. Arkansas may have saved Bret Bielema's job with the late comeback last week, but it did beat a much stronger New Mexico State team by 18 and now faces a one-win Coastal Carolina team that lost to Texas State by 20 at home last week. Arkansas has played a vastly tougher schedule (No. 31 versus No. 109). The Razorbacks' offense is improving with each Cole Kelly start at quarterback, and after facing defenses like Alabama and Auburn, he will thrive against a Coastal Carolina defense that's allowing 510 yards per game over its past three games.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 48, Coastal Carolina 17
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14)
Steele: Notre Dame has a nice edge with new defensive coordinator Mike Elko having been the Wake Forest coordinator the last three years, so he knows the personnel inside and out. Wake Forest is on their third road game in four weeks and just pulled a big upset over Louisville at home. The Deacons lost their top wide receiver, Greg Dortch, who had four touchdowns last week. Elko's defense is allowing just 16 points per game while not allowing 20 points in a single game all season. Notre Dame has taken on my No. 9 toughest schedule, while Wake Forest has taken on my No. 34 toughest slate. My computer loves the Irish here, and they've won six in a row versus the Vegas number and will continue to roll.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 38, Wake Forest 17
Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (-3)
Steele: Missouri has taken on six non-Power 5 teams over the past two years and has averaged 671 yards and 63 points per game in those games. When taking on Power 5 teams, it is averaging just 20 points per game, which is 45 points per game less. Drew Lock averages 423 passing yards per game, completing 65 percent of his throws versus non-Power 5 teams -- his numbers drop to 229 passing yards per game, 51 percent completion against Power 5 squads. After scoring 68 points versus Idaho and 52 versus Connecticut the past two weeks, there will be a large drop off this week. I'm not afraid of the fact that Florida has an interim head coach in Randy Shannon. Oregon State, UTEP and Georgia Southern all covered versus the Vegas line in their first games with interim head coaches this season.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 28, Missouri 24
No. 21 Stanford Cardinal at No. 25 Washington State Cougars (-2)
Coughlin: Sometimes you have to gamble in order to gamble. You have to take a chance and have to go on a notion. I'm making this pick based off the idea that Bryce Love won't be playing for the second straight week due to an ankle injury. I also can't get the Wazzu blowout of Stanford last year in Palo Alto out of my head, as Luke Falk picked apart the Cardinal defense for 357 yards and four touchdowns. I know Falk was benched last week in Tucson, but he is going to start this week as Mike Leach announced, and you add that on top of Stanford losing their top cornerback in Alijah Holder last week for the year. That Stanford offense looked awful without Love, and even if David Shaw decides to shake things up and start K.J. Costello at quarterback, it would be his first start on the road in a tough environment.
ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Washington State 28, Stanford 17
No. 22 Arizona Wildcats at No. 17 USC Trojans (-7.5)
Coughlin: There are few things that I like more in the sport of college football than an "angry" Sam Darnold, and I was so happy to see "angry" Sam Darnold back under center for the Trojans last week as he scorched the favorite Arizona State Sun Devils on their home turf for 266 yards and three scores through the air. The Trojans also rushed for 318 yards, led by my most underrated player in the country, Ronald Jones II, who went for 216 yards on just 18 carries. In a win over the Washington State Cougars last week, the Wildcats gave up over 500 yards in the air in the second half to a backup quarterback and only outscored the Cougs thanks to Wazzu's four red zone interceptions. I think USC slows down quarterback Khalil Tate and wins a track meet on Saturday night in the Coliseum.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 48, Arizona 38
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-9.5)
Coughlin: This line simply doesn't make sense to me. A 3-5 team is favored by nearly double digits over a team with five wins? I know Vanderbilt plays in the SEC and WKU is in Conference USA, but a 9.5-point spread? I'll try to not overthink this one and trust the guys who make the spreads and take the favorite. Western Kentucky seems like one of the most overrated teams in the country. They were picked by many to win C-USA and have done nothing to prove they are worthy. The 'Dores have lost five games in a row, starting with that 59-0 dismantling from Alabama. In that losing streak, they have improved on the offensive side of the ball by averaging over 25 points in their last four games. There aren't too many games on the Vandy schedule that are more winnable than this one, and I think the home team wins and covers the number.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Vanderbilt 35, Western Kentucky 20
No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (-13.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
Fallica: Indiana has some injuries to worry about, as the Hoosiers may play one-time starter Richard Lagow if Peyton Ramsey can't go. But that might not be a bad thing, as the better way to attack the Badgers is through the air. Wisconsin has injury concerns of their own with running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Quintez Cephus. IU has seemingly found ways to lose each week, but they finally gave up a bunch of points on defense last week. Despite that, 13.5 points are too many for me to pass up. The Hoosiers' propensity to be in close games and the fact the Wisconsin offense could be shorthanded again puts the Hoosiers on my docket.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Wisconsin 23, Indiana 17
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
Fallica: The Vols' last stand might have been last week, as they nearly pulled the upset in Lexington. The fan base is irate that Florida has made a coaching change while the status of Butch Jones is still up in the air. Check out the #EmptyNeyland campaign on Twitter to get a gauge of the feelings in Knoxville right now. Will that carry over to the players? Nobody knows for sure, but don't expect much of a home-field edge at all on Saturday. Southern Miss is coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite versus UAB, so it looks like this should be a win for the Vols. But the Southern Miss offense with running back Ito Smith and quarterback Keon Howard have put up points most of the year, and I don't think this will be a "gimme" at all for the Vols.
ATS pick: Southern Miss
Score: Tennessee 22, Southern Miss 21
Maryland Terrapins (-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Fallica: After three straight double-digit losses in which the offense was a no-show, Maryland put up 42 on Indiana last week. Odds of a second-straight offensive outburst? Not great. Rutgers has actually shown improvement this year, especially on defense, winning at Illinois, beating Purdue at home, giving Washington a game into the second half and throwing a scare into Nebraska in Lincoln. After a predictable loss in Ann Arbor last week, I think Chris Ash will have his team ready, and the State University of New Jersey will pick up win No. 4 on the year.
ATS pick: Rutgers
Score: Rutgers 27, Maryland 24
UMass Minutemen at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-31.5)
Fallica: The Minutemen lost quarterback Andrew Ford to injury last week, but still pulled off an overtime win over Appalachian State. Even if Ford doesn't play, this could be a spot to take the Minutemen plus the big number, as the Bulldogs host Alabama next week and are coming off convincing wins at Texas A&M and versus Kentucky. Last year in Massachusetts, Mississippi State struggled on the road as a 23-point favorite in the week before hosting Auburn. It seems like a similar spot here.
ATS pick: UMass
Score: Mississippi State 42, UMass 17
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/2/17
Our experts are back with their Week 10 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 10 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-4-1 in Week 9 (31-39-2 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 4-1 in Week 9 (28-14-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 5-1-1 in Week 9 (36-28-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday afternoon.
Common games
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5)
Steele: The Big 12 moved this game up to the earliest it has been played since 2004, as they were perhaps expecting a rematch in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma is averaging 203 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average, and Sooners running back Abdul Adams is fully healthy. He's averaging an absurd 10.4 yards per carry, and Oklahoma State has allowed three foes to rush for over 200 yards. Backing up Adams will be Rodney Anderson, who has come back from a serious neck injury to rush for 328 yards and 7.6 yards per carry over the last two games. Each team has faced one top-10 foe: Oklahoma beat Ohio State on the road by 15, while Oklahoma State lost to TCU at home by 13. I will take the Sooners as a 'dog and call for the outright upset.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 40
Coughlin: I'm not sure there is a player tougher to bet against in college football than Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield. The moxy, the guts, the toughness and the talent make him one of my favorites to back on any given Saturday, especially as an underdog in a rivalry road game. I picked the Sooners when they went to Columbus earlier this year because of the continuity of the senior signal-caller and his first year head coach Lincoln Riley, and even though the opponent might have a closer relationship between Mason Rudolph and Mike Gundy (seeing how Gundy used to run the Cowboys' offense), I'll back the visitors here. While plenty of people point out how bad the Sooners' defense has been, that unit was pretty damn good in Columbus, and I think it has the talent to mirror the defensive blueprint that TCU laid out when they defeated the Cowboys last month in Stillwater.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 31
Fallica: Rudolph hasn't looked right the last couple of weeks. He has attempted just seven passes thrown 20 yards in the air (9.7 percent of his pass attempts, down from 17.6 percent in the first six games), and he produced a season-low five attempts thrown at least 15 yards in the air last week. That leads me to believe something isn't right with the All-American-caliber signal-caller. The Sooners haven't been at their focused best since the Ohio State upset win, but on the road against their in-state rival as an underdog makes me think we'll see a better defensive effort and a fiery Baker Mayfield.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 44, Oklahoma State 38
No. 4 Clemson Tigers (-7.5) at No. 20 NC State Wolfpack
Steele: Clemson dominated Georgia Tech last week. The Tigers had allowed just 151 total yards before a meaningless touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter, which unfortunately cost them the cover. North Carolina State was held to just 263 total yards last week versus Notre Dame, and Clemson has a much better defense than the Fighting Irish. The Wolfpack do have a great defensive line -- despite allowing 318 rushing yards last week -- which can slow down the Tigers enough to keep this game low scoring. Last year with Deshaun Watson under center, Clemson had just 24 points versus NC State. With two defensive-minded teams, I'll call for this game to go under the total.
Pick: Under 51 points
Score: Clemson 27, NC State 20
Coughlin: This ACC matchup features two defensive lines featuring professional talent. Against Notre Dame last week, the Wolfpack's defensive line got handled by what I think is the best offensive line in the country to the tune of 318 rushing yards. They face a rushing attack that they are more accustomed to this week, as the Tigers' offense will be in the shotgun with Kelly Bryant running that spread offense, so I think NC State will be better this week. In last year's game, the Pack held the Tigers to 117 yards on the ground. Many people forget that the Clemson needed a missed field goal at the buzzer and then overtime to beat this NC State team. I think the home teams feeds off a great home crowd and keeps the game close in a loss.
ATS pick: NC State
Score: Clemson 26, NC State 21
Fallica: Last week was exactly what the Tigers needed, as Bryant looked healthy and the defensive line controlled the game. The winner basically locks up the ACC Atlantic this week, and that should help the Wolfpack bounce back from last week's loss in South Bend. I wonder how much of what happened last year is on the minds of Clemson's coaches and players, though. There will be no sneaking up on anyone this time. The Tigers have already gone on the road and throttled Louisville and Virginia Tech. Plus, NC State has some injuries it needs to worry about too. I have to make a pick in the common game, so I will side with Clemson.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 27, NC State 17
No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (-8.5) at No. 24 Michigan State Spartans
Steele: These two have faced four common opponents this year: Penn State has beaten Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan by 21.5 points per game, while Michigan State is 3-1 versus those teams with a point differential of only plus-1.7 points per game. Penn State struggled versus perhaps the best defensive line in the country last week, and while Michigan State is good on defense, they don't have the same type of athletes. Penn State has a large edge in my offensive rankings (No. 8 versus No. 52) with an even larger edge in my special teams rankings (No. 9 versus No. 111). Even in a tough spot off Michigan and Ohio State, my computer has the Nittany Lions by over two touchdowns, and I agree.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 30, Michigan State 14
Fallica: It was close on the scoreboard last week, but Penn State was statistically dominated by Ohio State. The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions 529-283 (6.8 to 4.4 yards per play). Penn State was unable to run at all (35 carries for 91 yards), and I don't know if the Lions will find running the ball much easier this week. After Penn State poured it on Michigan State last year in the fourth quarter in an effort to impress the CFP Committee (throwing with less than four minutes left in a 38-12 game), don't be surprised if Mark Dantonio and his team remember that. If Brian Lewerke and Felton Davis III play the way they did in the overtime loss at Northwestern, the Spartans have a real shot. Remember, MSU controls its destiny to get to the Big Ten title game and each of their conference games have been decided by one score. I expect this one will be, too. Michigan State has been a dangerous home underdog (and underdog in general) when getting a bunch of points.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Score: Michigan State 28, Penn State 27
Friday games
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida Atlantic Owls (-7.5)
Steele: Marshall lost to Florida International by 11 at home last week, as it was minus-three in turnover margin. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic beat Western Kentucky on the road by 14 last week, despite having nine fewer first downs. The Owls' first two touchdown drives were just 8 and 18 yards, and they trailed by eight in the fourth quarter. There's solid value with Marshall, as Florida Atlantic is more than a touchdown favorite. Marshall is plus-141 yards per game in C-USA play, while Florida Atlantic is plus-125. I will gladly take the extra value provided from last week's results.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 30, Florida Atlantic 27
Saturday games
No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
Steele: At the start of the year, I had Miami as the top team in the ACC Atlantic Division, and I still feel that way. The Canes have taken on the tougher schedule and won at Florida State. While they beat Georgia Tech by only one point, they did finish with a 200-yard edge. In Virginia Tech's biggest games, they were outgained by West Virginia by 123 yards and trailed Clemson by 21 before a late touchdown. Miami has a talented defensive front seven, and while it hasn't played to its potential, I expect it to do so this week. Miami has been winning a lot of close games, but is undefeated and a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) at Virginia Cavaliers
Steele: Georgia Tech beat Virginia by two touchdowns in a misleading game last year. Virginia had a 25-8 first down edge on the road, with the majority of Georgia Tech's points coming from four big plays, including a 24-yard interception return at the end of the game. The Jackets are off three straight misleading finals. They were outgained 481-281 by Miami, but lost by only one; they trailed Wake Forest at home by five late in the third quarter, but a 70-yard touchdown put them ahead by seven with 1:57 left and they won by 14; and they were dominated last week by Clemson (outgained 399-151) prior to a late drive for a garbage touchdown in their 14-point loss. Don't forget that Bronco Mendenhall is one of the best at defending the option.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Georgia Tech 21, Virginia 20
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-23.5)
Steele: Coastal Carolina has played five Power 5 teams and lost them all by an average score of 55-5. Arkansas may have saved Bret Bielema's job with the late comeback last week, but it did beat a much stronger New Mexico State team by 18 and now faces a one-win Coastal Carolina team that lost to Texas State by 20 at home last week. Arkansas has played a vastly tougher schedule (No. 31 versus No. 109). The Razorbacks' offense is improving with each Cole Kelly start at quarterback, and after facing defenses like Alabama and Auburn, he will thrive against a Coastal Carolina defense that's allowing 510 yards per game over its past three games.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 48, Coastal Carolina 17
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14)
Steele: Notre Dame has a nice edge with new defensive coordinator Mike Elko having been the Wake Forest coordinator the last three years, so he knows the personnel inside and out. Wake Forest is on their third road game in four weeks and just pulled a big upset over Louisville at home. The Deacons lost their top wide receiver, Greg Dortch, who had four touchdowns last week. Elko's defense is allowing just 16 points per game while not allowing 20 points in a single game all season. Notre Dame has taken on my No. 9 toughest schedule, while Wake Forest has taken on my No. 34 toughest slate. My computer loves the Irish here, and they've won six in a row versus the Vegas number and will continue to roll.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 38, Wake Forest 17
Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (-3)
Steele: Missouri has taken on six non-Power 5 teams over the past two years and has averaged 671 yards and 63 points per game in those games. When taking on Power 5 teams, it is averaging just 20 points per game, which is 45 points per game less. Drew Lock averages 423 passing yards per game, completing 65 percent of his throws versus non-Power 5 teams -- his numbers drop to 229 passing yards per game, 51 percent completion against Power 5 squads. After scoring 68 points versus Idaho and 52 versus Connecticut the past two weeks, there will be a large drop off this week. I'm not afraid of the fact that Florida has an interim head coach in Randy Shannon. Oregon State, UTEP and Georgia Southern all covered versus the Vegas line in their first games with interim head coaches this season.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 28, Missouri 24
No. 21 Stanford Cardinal at No. 25 Washington State Cougars (-2)
Coughlin: Sometimes you have to gamble in order to gamble. You have to take a chance and have to go on a notion. I'm making this pick based off the idea that Bryce Love won't be playing for the second straight week due to an ankle injury. I also can't get the Wazzu blowout of Stanford last year in Palo Alto out of my head, as Luke Falk picked apart the Cardinal defense for 357 yards and four touchdowns. I know Falk was benched last week in Tucson, but he is going to start this week as Mike Leach announced, and you add that on top of Stanford losing their top cornerback in Alijah Holder last week for the year. That Stanford offense looked awful without Love, and even if David Shaw decides to shake things up and start K.J. Costello at quarterback, it would be his first start on the road in a tough environment.
ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Washington State 28, Stanford 17
No. 22 Arizona Wildcats at No. 17 USC Trojans (-7.5)
Coughlin: There are few things that I like more in the sport of college football than an "angry" Sam Darnold, and I was so happy to see "angry" Sam Darnold back under center for the Trojans last week as he scorched the favorite Arizona State Sun Devils on their home turf for 266 yards and three scores through the air. The Trojans also rushed for 318 yards, led by my most underrated player in the country, Ronald Jones II, who went for 216 yards on just 18 carries. In a win over the Washington State Cougars last week, the Wildcats gave up over 500 yards in the air in the second half to a backup quarterback and only outscored the Cougs thanks to Wazzu's four red zone interceptions. I think USC slows down quarterback Khalil Tate and wins a track meet on Saturday night in the Coliseum.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 48, Arizona 38
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-9.5)
Coughlin: This line simply doesn't make sense to me. A 3-5 team is favored by nearly double digits over a team with five wins? I know Vanderbilt plays in the SEC and WKU is in Conference USA, but a 9.5-point spread? I'll try to not overthink this one and trust the guys who make the spreads and take the favorite. Western Kentucky seems like one of the most overrated teams in the country. They were picked by many to win C-USA and have done nothing to prove they are worthy. The 'Dores have lost five games in a row, starting with that 59-0 dismantling from Alabama. In that losing streak, they have improved on the offensive side of the ball by averaging over 25 points in their last four games. There aren't too many games on the Vandy schedule that are more winnable than this one, and I think the home team wins and covers the number.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Vanderbilt 35, Western Kentucky 20
No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (-13.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
Fallica: Indiana has some injuries to worry about, as the Hoosiers may play one-time starter Richard Lagow if Peyton Ramsey can't go. But that might not be a bad thing, as the better way to attack the Badgers is through the air. Wisconsin has injury concerns of their own with running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Quintez Cephus. IU has seemingly found ways to lose each week, but they finally gave up a bunch of points on defense last week. Despite that, 13.5 points are too many for me to pass up. The Hoosiers' propensity to be in close games and the fact the Wisconsin offense could be shorthanded again puts the Hoosiers on my docket.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Wisconsin 23, Indiana 17
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
Fallica: The Vols' last stand might have been last week, as they nearly pulled the upset in Lexington. The fan base is irate that Florida has made a coaching change while the status of Butch Jones is still up in the air. Check out the #EmptyNeyland campaign on Twitter to get a gauge of the feelings in Knoxville right now. Will that carry over to the players? Nobody knows for sure, but don't expect much of a home-field edge at all on Saturday. Southern Miss is coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite versus UAB, so it looks like this should be a win for the Vols. But the Southern Miss offense with running back Ito Smith and quarterback Keon Howard have put up points most of the year, and I don't think this will be a "gimme" at all for the Vols.
ATS pick: Southern Miss
Score: Tennessee 22, Southern Miss 21
Maryland Terrapins (-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Fallica: After three straight double-digit losses in which the offense was a no-show, Maryland put up 42 on Indiana last week. Odds of a second-straight offensive outburst? Not great. Rutgers has actually shown improvement this year, especially on defense, winning at Illinois, beating Purdue at home, giving Washington a game into the second half and throwing a scare into Nebraska in Lincoln. After a predictable loss in Ann Arbor last week, I think Chris Ash will have his team ready, and the State University of New Jersey will pick up win No. 4 on the year.
ATS pick: Rutgers
Score: Rutgers 27, Maryland 24
UMass Minutemen at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-31.5)
Fallica: The Minutemen lost quarterback Andrew Ford to injury last week, but still pulled off an overtime win over Appalachian State. Even if Ford doesn't play, this could be a spot to take the Minutemen plus the big number, as the Bulldogs host Alabama next week and are coming off convincing wins at Texas A&M and versus Kentucky. Last year in Massachusetts, Mississippi State struggled on the road as a 23-point favorite in the week before hosting Auburn. It seems like a similar spot here.
ATS pick: UMass
Score: Mississippi State 42, UMass 17
