How to bet the 2017 Breeders' Cup

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hacheman@therx.com
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How to bet the 2017 Breeders' Cup
Chris Fallica
ESPN INSIDER

For those who don't know, the Breeders' Cup is a two-day event featuring top horses from around the world. Every year, there are big upsets and huge payoffs. This happens because these are all high-quality horses, yet many of them get overlooked by the betting public and go off at higher odds than you would ever see them at in regular races -- and odds in excess of their true chances to win.

Here is how I'm handicapping every Breeders' Cup race for 2017:

Friday

Marathon


I don't have a strong lean on this race. On paper, it looks like (3) Destin should find the pace to his liking and maybe work out a trip either at or near the lead, just like he did when he nearly won the Belmont. His 2017 form has been awful, though, so tread lightly. It would be no shock if (7) Hard Aces once again found the distance at this track to his liking.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

It's not a creative pick, but (11) Rushing Fall looks like a standout here. If she travels well and likes the surface, she will be tough to beat. I'm not as high on (2) Happily. It seems like the O'Brien runners that get bet are never the ones who end up winning. I'll use (1) Best Performance, (8) Significant Form, (13) Juliet Capulet and (14) Moon Dash in the exacta box along with Rushing Fall.

Dirt Mile

I expect the short prices to continue on Friday with (6) Mor Spirit in the Dirt Mile. He won't be far off (3) Sharp Azteca, whom he crushed in a freakish performance in the Met Mile. Some might be concerned that Mor Spirit hasn't raced since, but his works indicate he is ready. I'll use (2) Giant Expectations and (5) Awesome Slew from off the pace as exotics kickers. Peter Eurton had a good Del Mar (DMR) meet this summer, and the Pat O'Brien winner should sit a good trip and enjoy the extra furlong here. After acting up at Santa Anita (SA) in his last start, if I had to pick one horse to pull the upset here, it would be him.

Juvenile Turf

This is one of the better betting races of the day. I'll make (5) Beckford my top pick as he adds Lasix and will be stretching out. After having won his first two starts, he's been a beaten favorite in his last three. It's clear he's well-regarded, so this might be the time he fires. (6) Masar also has a huge shot here, adding Lasix. I think one of those two will win. Take a look at (13) My Boy Jack as a potential price underneath.

Distaff

(5) Elate has been the talk of the track, and there's a chance she goes off as favorite, even with the presence of (2) Stellar Wind in the field. Elate has been awesome in her last four races, and there's no reason not to expect her to be at her best on Friday. (7) Paradise Woods is a bet against in my book, as she has had everything her own way in her two wins vs. winners. That likely won't be the case on Friday. (4) Abel Tasman could be a bit of an overlay. (6) Forever Unbridled will be moving late, but I don't think the pace will be so fast that it allows her to get to the winner's circle.

Saturday

Juvenile Fillies

(7) Moonshine Memories is a deserving favorite, given her success out west. She will be on the ticket for sure, but I will be using a bunch of horses -- including a couple of prices -- at first and second with her in the exacta: (1) Heavenly Love, (3) Princess Warrior, (8) Piedi Bianchi and (12) Caledonia Road. Piedi Bianchi is especially interesting given she just missed here in the Del Mar Debutante against Moonshine Memories. She then had the widest of trips at Santa Anita and was only beaten by three lengths by the favorite. When Doug O'Neill wins, quite often it comes at a big price.

Turf Sprint

(1) Disco Partner is a key in the exotics and the most likely winner in my eyes. He should sit a good trip from the inside off the pace, which should be extremely quick and come home fast. If Lady Aurelia beats me, so be it. If you're looking for some prices to use with Disco Partner, consider (9) Mongolian Saturday, who will also benefit from a quick pace and was 7-2 in his last start (20-1 money line). (6) Marsha will also warrant play in the exotics.

Filly and Mare Sprint

(11) Unique Bella is the 9-5 ML favorite and a must-use in the exotics. Given she has just the one race since an injury that caused her to miss the Kentucky Oaks, you have to wonder if there will be a regression due to the layoff, or if she is primed to take another step forward in a big field of elders. I think it's worth a shot putting a few on top of her in the tris and exactas, just in case. Those I would consider using include (4) Finest City, who won this race last year and hasn't raced since late July, (7) By the Moon, who is very versatile, and (9) Finley'sluckycharm, who showed she can rate (if need be) in her last start.

Filly and Mare Turf

(9) Lady Eli has been a great story, but she has left herself a good bit of work to do in most of her races since returning from injury. I'm inclined to look elsewhere for the winner, although she is impossible to root against. I'll make (13) Goodyearforroses my top pick. Richard Baltas and Corey Nakatani have had a great deal of success at DMR and, after just missing there with a big effort off the layoff, she predictably regressed in her SA start as the favorite. The blinkers come off here and she looks to be ready for a big effort at a big number. Note that she was beaten by just a half-length by Lady Eli in the Gamely at SA in May. (10) Queen's Trust has a good chance of repeating her win in this race from last year. (5) Wuheida looks to be a huge overlay at 20-1 on the ML, as she gets Lasix for the first time and has kept good company overseas. (1) War Flag is dangerous as well, if she runs back to the Flower Bowl. There's too much value here for me to settle on the favorite.

Sprint

People are talking as if (2) Drefong is a sure thing. I don't see it that way at all. He's drawn inside and will have to take the heat all the way around from (10) Imperial Hint and (7) Takaful. Can he do it? Sure. That said, I see too much value in the field to not take a chance with a price on top. What's wrong with (9) Ransom the Moon? He was the recipient when Drefong ducked in during the Bing Crosby, but he still ran a huge race. His last outing was a total prep as he had no chance from the rail. Now he's drawn outside and Flavien Prat sticks around. I see a perfect trip and a win at a nice number. (3) American Pastime could also sneak into the exotics.

Mile

Finishing either first or second in 11 of 15 lifetime starts means (10) Ribchester is a must-use on the ticket. (7) Om is interesting to me at 20-1. He rarely runs a bad race, has been in the money all six of his lifetime starts at Del Mar and should appreciate the stretch-out from 6.5 furlongs down the hill in his last start. He missed by a nose in the Turf Sprint last year to Obviously. He will be all over my ticket. (14) Karar will also be on my ticket. He stretches out for Frankie Dettori and warrants a long-shot look. He lost all chance at the start last year when he broke in the air at 6.5 in the Turf Sprint. If (2) Heart to Heart or (5) World Approval wins, I lose.

Juvenile

Visually dominant in all three of his starts -- two coming at Del Mar -- (11) Bolt d'Oro is the most likely winner on the card for me. He can be placed anywhere, and that will serve him well from this post position. If there's no pace, he'll be on it. If it's too fast, he'll sit and pounce. I'd be shocked if he didn't run his race on Saturday. It might be worth playing some press Pick 4 tickets with him singled. I'll be using (6) Good Magic as a price underneath, as well as (12) Hollywood Star.

Turf

On paper, it looks like (3) Highland Reel won't get away with theft up front like he did when he won last year's race, as (12) Beach Patrol and (14) Oscar Performance will keep him honest. (7) Itsinthepost and (11) Hunt have shown an affinity for the Del Mar turf and are must-uses. I'm on the fence about (10) Fanciful Angel, who I thought was a fluke after finishing a close second in the Arlington Million at 73-1. He then backed it up with a good second to Beach Patrol, who had everything his own way at Belmont. My gut says to use him.

Classic

From what I read and hear, (1) Arrogate looks a lot better than he did earlier this year when he was a no-show in the San Diego and beaten by a half-length by (11) Collected in the Pacific Classic. The rail draw might force Mike Smith's hand some, as Arrogate will likely be in the race from the start. If he's right, he wins. (8) West Coast will try to keep Bob Baffert's run of 3-year-old Classic winners going. This is a huge step up in class, facing elders in a Graded Stakes for the first time. I'll be using the longer price of the uncoupled Baffert entry (6) Mubtaahij as well. He won the Awesome Again from off the pace, and if Arrogate, Gun Runner, Collected and West Coast (or any of combination of those) hook up, Mubtaahij will be the biggest beneficiary. (5) Gun Runner has been awesome since coming back from Dubai, and obviously, if Arrogate isn't right, he would be your winner. Still, if I have to choose between the two, I'll side with Arrogate as my top pick.
 

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