Best bets on Week 9 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 9 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: The Titans return from their bye week with quarterback Marcus Mariota closer to 100 percent following a hamstring injury a few weeks back. In their past two home games, they did beat Seattle and got a late Derrick Henry touchdown run (thank you!) to beat Indianapolis by 14 on a Monday night. Baltimore is averaging just 280 yards, and Joe Flacco (just a 6:8 TD:INT ratio this season) is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. Baltimore is known for their defense but actually have the No. 30 run defense this season, which could make it tough to slow down Henry and DeMarco Murray (No. 8 rush attack).
ATS pick: Lean on Tennessee
Warren Sharp's take: After starting the season playing four consecutive games against top-half offenses, the Titans defense has had the fortune of facing the 32nd-, 31st- and 30th-ranked offenses in consecutive weeks as it headed into its bye. That, and that alone, is the reason the Titans posted a 2-1 record in those games. Mariota's hamstring was not healthy, but it should be healthy now following a bye. The Ravens have a poor offense, and it is one that defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is familiar with, given his time in Pittsburgh. Benefiting the Ravens is the Titans' poor pass rush, which ranks third worst in the league. Defensively, Baltimore has one of the better pass rushes, which has helped their second-rated pass defense. The Ravens defense struggled earlier in the season, but with Brandon Williams back, the run defense has been much improved. That is where this game will be decided. If the Titans are able to run the ball to set up the pass, they should be able to lock the win.
ATS pick: Lean on Tennessee
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Baltimore 20
ATS pick: Baltimore
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Total: 52
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: At the start of the season, I had Tampa Bay rated as more of a playoff contender than New Orleans due to an expected edge on the defensive side of the ball. It is clear to me at this point that the 2017 Saints defense is the superior unit as they are allowing just 345 yards per game with 19 sacks, while the Buccaneers are allowing 386 yards per game with just seven sacks. Over the past four weeks, New Orleans has the No. 5 defense in the NFL holding foes to 22 yards per game below their season average and are holding foes to the lowest passer rating in the NFL. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is allowing foes 67 yards per game above their season average. New Orleans is in the Superdome in this one and has the better run game and quarterback, while their offensive line has allowed just seven sacks. Cementing my lean with New Orleans is that they're 8-2 ATS vs. Tampa Bay and 10-3 ATS versus NFC South rivals overall, dating back to the start of 2015 (all five Saints wins this year have come by eight points or more).
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans
Erin Rynning's take: After two weeks of Brett Hundley and Mitchell Trubisky, the Saints will actually be tested with an opponent's passing game this week. The Saints are making small strides on defense. However, the unit ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play against a soft schedule of opposing offenses. It's still about offense for the Saints with Drew Brees playing quarterback, as they rank second in the NFL averaging 390 yards per game. Yes, the Buccaneers' defense is finally regaining some health, but it has failed to live up to its talent level. The Bucs are allowing 5.8 yards per play, and the Saints' balance will give them problems.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: While the Saints offense is just as potent as it has been over the past few years, New Orleans is happy to implement a new style of play which has resulted in less variance -- running the ball and playing good pass defense. While this may sound strange, the Saints rank fourth in pass offense and pass defense. The key will be for the Buccaneers to get their run game going because the Saints' run defense ranks 29th in efficiency, despite playing the eighth-easiest schedule of run offenses. The trick will be to convincing Dirk Koetter to run the ball, as the Buccaneers are the most pass-heavy team in the NFL. Even in the past two weeks, when Jameis Winston's shoulder was injured, the Bucs still went 67 percent passing in neutral situations, which is just far too high. With a defense that is getting healthier, the Bucs have a chance to keep this game close if they can run more and play better rush defense.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 30, Tampa Bay 23
Pick: Over
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at New York Giants
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: While I'm aware that the Giants beat the Broncos on the road this year, it still does not make sense to me. The Giants have a poor offensive line, and wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall are on the injured reserve list. The Los Angeles Rams have won at Dallas and at Jacksonville and are plus-41 yards per game. The Giants (who faced the tougher schedule) are minus-83 yards per game and sit at 1-6 returning from their bye. I have been riding with the Rams on most weeks and believe that their pass rush will have a good edge against the New York offensive line. With Todd Gurley II back in 2015 form and some solid receiving weapons at Jared Goff's disposal, I'll go ahead and lean in the direction of the Rams in this one.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants' defense has been a massive disappointment. A unit that was quite similar to that of 2016 has not produced anything close to the expected level of performance, and the poor play has come against a very manageable level of competition. It won't look any better this week, as the Giants will be without Janoris Jenkins, their leading tackler in the secondary. The Giants' performance out in Denver to earn their sole win was a bit of an anomaly, as they were rolled by the Seattle Seahawks in the following week. Due to all of the wide receiver injuries, the Giants have thrown 31 percent of passes to the tight end, the fourth-most in the league. The problem is the Rams are the NFL's second-best defense against tight end passes, allowing only 44 percent to grade as successful for just 6.1 yards per attempt.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles 24, New York 21
Pick: Over
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: I have been on the Eagles all year, and they continue to win and cover. They just added running back Jay Ajayi from Miami and will get their defensive backs returning soon from injury. Denver has held every opponent to 276 yards or fewer. A surprising stat to me is that Denver has out-gained every foe this year and are plus 81 yards per game despite their 3-4 record. Denver is going through a quarterback change after averaging just 12 points per game over their past five. While only plus-45 yards per game, I feel the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL and are in a good situation. Denver is on a third straight road game, playing on a short rest and traveling across the country. I will call for the Broncos' fourth straight double-digit loss.
ATS pick: Lean on Philadelphia
Erin Rynning's take: If the Broncos could just not turn over the ball. For better or worse, they'll insert Brock Osweiler at quarterback with hope to effectively improve on their minus-11 turnover ratio. The 3-4 SU Broncos are amazingly a perfect 7-0, out-gaining their opposition this season, with their defense ranked first overall. Meanwhile, the Eagles are the toast of the NFL, maybe much like the Kansas City Chiefs were a few weeks ago. No question with the development of Carson Wentz this is a well-rounded football team. However, this Eagles' offense will face a firm test against the Broncos defense.
ATS pick: Denver and the under
Warren Sharp's take: Denver is switching back to Osweiler, and it's nearly impossible for it to be worse than what Trevor Siemian was delivering in the passing game. The Broncos tried to become a more run-heavy team, but they face the 13th-rated Eagles run defense after playing four straight games against run defenses ranking in the league's bottom 10. For the Eagles, their offense has performed even against the most difficult defenses they've faced (34, 30 and 28 points versus the Redskins' and Panthers' defenses), but they now face their toughest test of the year with the second-rated Broncos defense.
ATS pick: Lean on Denver
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Denver 16
ATS pick: Philadelphia and the under
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: These teams are fairly even coming in, as Carolina is sitting at 5-3 and plus-47 yards per game, while Atlanta comes in at 4-3 and plus-54 yards per game. I have been more impressed with Carolina's wins, however, as they have perhaps the best defense in the NFL. Chicago had a first and goal on Atlanta and failed on four shots at the end zone in the six-point defeat. Detroit had a game-winning touchdown overturned versus Atlanta. The Falcons also trailed the Jets in the fourth quarter and appear to be suffering from the Super Bowl-loser jinx. The Panthers are surprisingly laying less than a field goal in Charlotte with odds makers still looking back to last year's results, when Atlanta was a playoff team and Carolina finished at just 6-10. With this being Atlanta's third consecutive road contest, I fully expect the home team to get the job done in this one.
ATS pick: Carolina
Warren Sharp's take: This should be an interesting game from the Panthers after the team traded away Kelvin Benjamin, their No. 1 wide receiver and a close teammate to Cam Newton. The Panthers' offense already was struggling to run the ball, ranking 25th in rush efficiency despite playing the 26th-rated schedule of run defenses. Yes, the Falcons defense ranks 26th in pass rush efficiency against the NFL's worst schedule of offensive lines (we all know how badly Newton's confidence and play spins out of control if the pass rush gets to him) and the Panthers have one of the toughest run defenses that the Falcons have faced so far this year, but I lean toward the Falcons being able to do enough in the run game to set up the pass game.
ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 21, Atlanta 19
Pick: Under
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: I have been pointing out how the Jaguars have followed every great game with a poor game, followed by a great game, and I have been riding that roller coaster successfully. In the past 26 games, Jacksonville has been favored just six times and are 1-5 straight up in them. I feel last week's bye for Jacksonville was huge, as that could have been their down week, and they could be back up again here with Leonard Fournette expected to return from injury. Jacksonville is plus-61 yards per game this season, and the Bengals are minus-55 yards per game. The Jacksonville defense has recorded 33 sacks and Cincinnati has allowed 22. Once again, the angles cement it with the Bengals just 1-5 ATS as an away 'dog the past two seasons, and the Jaguars posting a 6-1 ATS mark following their past seven bye weeks.
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: The Jaguars have the No. 1 pass defense and total defense, but they rank dead last against the run. There are a couple of factors that could play into their favor. First, they have faced a brutal schedule of run offenses. Against top-half run offenses, the Jaguars allowed 61 percent of runs to grade as successful, but against bottom-half run offenses, they allowed just 44 percent. The Bengals offense ranks 27th in rushing efficiency, which provides hope for this Jaguars defense coming off the bye. Additionally, the Jaguars added Marcell Dareus from Buffalo to help clog those run lanes. With Fournette back, the Jaguars should be content with the ground game with a few targeted shots downfield mixed in.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 22, Cincinnati 16
ATS pick: Jacksonville and the under
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-7)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: The Texans defense was right at the top of the NFL entering the 2017 season. While it still remains in the upper echelon of the league, the unit has allowed 450 or more yards twice since the departure of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus (past three contests). With rookie Deshaun Watson under center, the Texans were in range of outright upsets against three quality opponents (New England, Kansas City and Seattle). But after his injury, they turn to Tom Savage. Indianapolis outgained Cincinnati last week 331-276, but have lost four games by 14-plus points (26.5 point per game average). Houston is plus-67 yards per game with Watson starting, but were held to just 203 yards in the opener with Savage as the starter. The Colts are the worst in the NFL in yardage differential at minus-111 per game on the year. While the Texans are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as a home favorite over the past three seasons, and the Colts at just 3-7-1 ATS as an AFC South away 'dog dating back to 2008, I'll pass on this one with the late change at quarterback.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: It was brutal to hear of Watson's torn ACL. This offense was the most entertaining in the league, thanks to the things Bill O'Brien was dialing up, but now they are starting Savage, who has proven to be one of the worst NFL quarterbacks in recent memory. It could certainly be in Houston's interest to maybe let Braxton Miller (a one-time Ohio State quarterback) throw some passes or find other ways to mix up the offense. It would be painful to watch the Texans destroy one of the NFL's best defenses on the road in the hostile environment of Seattle, and then come home and be impotent against the NFL's worst defense.
Pick: Over on Indianapolis team total of 19.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 26, Indianapolis 18
ATS pick: Houston and the under
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Arizona
Phil Steele's take: San Francisco has won just one of their past 23 games, including an 0-8 start to the 2017 campaign. Arizona, meanwhile, came into the season thinking playoffs but need a win here to even their record at 4-4. The Cardinals were already down running back David Johnson, offensive guard Mike Iupati and linebacker Markus Golden, then lost quarterback Carson Palmer in their most recent game. Drew Stanton has hit just 53 percent of his passes with a 14:20 TD:INT ratio in his career. While San Francisco hasn't compiled a lot of good spread records in recent years, they are 9-2 ATS inside of their division, dating back to the middle of 2015, when they covered at home against this very same Arizona squad. With some confidence coming in for the 49ers after a narrow three-point overtime loss earlier this year in the desert, I give them a solid chance of getting the outright upset win here as a small home 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on San Francisco
Warren Sharp's take: After covering but losing five straight close games, the 49ers faced two top-10 offenses and lost by 23-plus points in both games. That won't be a concern when they face the 25th-ranked offense of the Cardinals, but their health will be. Their offensive line does not seem capable of supporting the play of C.J. Beathard, and now the line is without Joe Staley and the receiving corps lost Pierre Garcon. After a terrible loss in London which saw the Cardinals lose Palmer, the team had a bye week to at least attempt to integrate Stanton. The Cardinals fortunately have a roster around Stanton that is far more talented than that of the 49ers, both offensively and defensively.
ATS pick: Lean on Arizona
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Arizona 23, San Francisco 21
Pick: Over
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: I was originally thinking Washington here, as Seattle has yet to play a four-quarter game. They have two blowout wins but trailed both Indianapolis and the New York Giants at the half. While Washington lost to Philadelphia by 13, Kansas City by nine and Dallas by 14, all three saw their opponents score late in the game. Washington is plus-35 yards per game this year, while Seattle is just plus-37 yards per game. Two key factors have me leaning to Seattle. Washington is coming off two physical divisional games versus Philadelphia and Dallas and now travels across the country to the home of the "12th Man." The main reason for my lean with the Seahawks, however, is due to the inexperienced offensive line that Washington will have to put on the field due to numerous injuries.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Erin Rynning's take: The Redskins' offensive line shined in the early season, but injuries and attrition have piled up. In fact, they could very well be without much of their starting unit, while turning to rookies and recent pickups. Unfortunately, the task will become magnified playing in the rocking and noisy Seattle venue, while matching up against the talented Seahawks defense. Russell Wilson lit up the banged-up Texans defense last week. However, this is still an offense that has sputtered throughout the campaign, while the overachieving Redskins defense keeps them in check.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: The Redskins' offensive line has fallen victim to clusters of injuries, and it won't be easy for this line to communicate and perform in the most hostile environment in the NFL. With the struggles on the line, the obvious offset will be for the Redskins to pass the ball quicker, but slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder has yet to practice this week and may miss the game with a hamstring injury. That leaves their most likely valve play in running back Chris Thompson, the center point of the NFL's best RB-pass offense. However, the Seahawks rank third best against RB passes. While Seattle will have to face this 13th-ranked Redskins defense, Washington is missing several starters, including Mason Foster and Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys gashed the Redskins in the rain last weekend, and while the Seahawks don't have a run game capable of replicating that, the Redskins are in an uphill battle thanks to untimely injuries and Seattle's strong defensive and deep-passing offense,.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 23, Washington 19
ATS pick: Washington and the under
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Kansas City
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 9 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: The Titans return from their bye week with quarterback Marcus Mariota closer to 100 percent following a hamstring injury a few weeks back. In their past two home games, they did beat Seattle and got a late Derrick Henry touchdown run (thank you!) to beat Indianapolis by 14 on a Monday night. Baltimore is averaging just 280 yards, and Joe Flacco (just a 6:8 TD:INT ratio this season) is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. Baltimore is known for their defense but actually have the No. 30 run defense this season, which could make it tough to slow down Henry and DeMarco Murray (No. 8 rush attack).
ATS pick: Lean on Tennessee
Warren Sharp's take: After starting the season playing four consecutive games against top-half offenses, the Titans defense has had the fortune of facing the 32nd-, 31st- and 30th-ranked offenses in consecutive weeks as it headed into its bye. That, and that alone, is the reason the Titans posted a 2-1 record in those games. Mariota's hamstring was not healthy, but it should be healthy now following a bye. The Ravens have a poor offense, and it is one that defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is familiar with, given his time in Pittsburgh. Benefiting the Ravens is the Titans' poor pass rush, which ranks third worst in the league. Defensively, Baltimore has one of the better pass rushes, which has helped their second-rated pass defense. The Ravens defense struggled earlier in the season, but with Brandon Williams back, the run defense has been much improved. That is where this game will be decided. If the Titans are able to run the ball to set up the pass, they should be able to lock the win.
ATS pick: Lean on Tennessee
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Baltimore 20
ATS pick: Baltimore
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Total: 52
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: At the start of the season, I had Tampa Bay rated as more of a playoff contender than New Orleans due to an expected edge on the defensive side of the ball. It is clear to me at this point that the 2017 Saints defense is the superior unit as they are allowing just 345 yards per game with 19 sacks, while the Buccaneers are allowing 386 yards per game with just seven sacks. Over the past four weeks, New Orleans has the No. 5 defense in the NFL holding foes to 22 yards per game below their season average and are holding foes to the lowest passer rating in the NFL. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is allowing foes 67 yards per game above their season average. New Orleans is in the Superdome in this one and has the better run game and quarterback, while their offensive line has allowed just seven sacks. Cementing my lean with New Orleans is that they're 8-2 ATS vs. Tampa Bay and 10-3 ATS versus NFC South rivals overall, dating back to the start of 2015 (all five Saints wins this year have come by eight points or more).
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans
Erin Rynning's take: After two weeks of Brett Hundley and Mitchell Trubisky, the Saints will actually be tested with an opponent's passing game this week. The Saints are making small strides on defense. However, the unit ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play against a soft schedule of opposing offenses. It's still about offense for the Saints with Drew Brees playing quarterback, as they rank second in the NFL averaging 390 yards per game. Yes, the Buccaneers' defense is finally regaining some health, but it has failed to live up to its talent level. The Bucs are allowing 5.8 yards per play, and the Saints' balance will give them problems.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: While the Saints offense is just as potent as it has been over the past few years, New Orleans is happy to implement a new style of play which has resulted in less variance -- running the ball and playing good pass defense. While this may sound strange, the Saints rank fourth in pass offense and pass defense. The key will be for the Buccaneers to get their run game going because the Saints' run defense ranks 29th in efficiency, despite playing the eighth-easiest schedule of run offenses. The trick will be to convincing Dirk Koetter to run the ball, as the Buccaneers are the most pass-heavy team in the NFL. Even in the past two weeks, when Jameis Winston's shoulder was injured, the Bucs still went 67 percent passing in neutral situations, which is just far too high. With a defense that is getting healthier, the Bucs have a chance to keep this game close if they can run more and play better rush defense.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 30, Tampa Bay 23
Pick: Over
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at New York Giants
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: While I'm aware that the Giants beat the Broncos on the road this year, it still does not make sense to me. The Giants have a poor offensive line, and wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall are on the injured reserve list. The Los Angeles Rams have won at Dallas and at Jacksonville and are plus-41 yards per game. The Giants (who faced the tougher schedule) are minus-83 yards per game and sit at 1-6 returning from their bye. I have been riding with the Rams on most weeks and believe that their pass rush will have a good edge against the New York offensive line. With Todd Gurley II back in 2015 form and some solid receiving weapons at Jared Goff's disposal, I'll go ahead and lean in the direction of the Rams in this one.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants' defense has been a massive disappointment. A unit that was quite similar to that of 2016 has not produced anything close to the expected level of performance, and the poor play has come against a very manageable level of competition. It won't look any better this week, as the Giants will be without Janoris Jenkins, their leading tackler in the secondary. The Giants' performance out in Denver to earn their sole win was a bit of an anomaly, as they were rolled by the Seattle Seahawks in the following week. Due to all of the wide receiver injuries, the Giants have thrown 31 percent of passes to the tight end, the fourth-most in the league. The problem is the Rams are the NFL's second-best defense against tight end passes, allowing only 44 percent to grade as successful for just 6.1 yards per attempt.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles 24, New York 21
Pick: Over
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: I have been on the Eagles all year, and they continue to win and cover. They just added running back Jay Ajayi from Miami and will get their defensive backs returning soon from injury. Denver has held every opponent to 276 yards or fewer. A surprising stat to me is that Denver has out-gained every foe this year and are plus 81 yards per game despite their 3-4 record. Denver is going through a quarterback change after averaging just 12 points per game over their past five. While only plus-45 yards per game, I feel the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL and are in a good situation. Denver is on a third straight road game, playing on a short rest and traveling across the country. I will call for the Broncos' fourth straight double-digit loss.
ATS pick: Lean on Philadelphia
Erin Rynning's take: If the Broncos could just not turn over the ball. For better or worse, they'll insert Brock Osweiler at quarterback with hope to effectively improve on their minus-11 turnover ratio. The 3-4 SU Broncos are amazingly a perfect 7-0, out-gaining their opposition this season, with their defense ranked first overall. Meanwhile, the Eagles are the toast of the NFL, maybe much like the Kansas City Chiefs were a few weeks ago. No question with the development of Carson Wentz this is a well-rounded football team. However, this Eagles' offense will face a firm test against the Broncos defense.
ATS pick: Denver and the under
Warren Sharp's take: Denver is switching back to Osweiler, and it's nearly impossible for it to be worse than what Trevor Siemian was delivering in the passing game. The Broncos tried to become a more run-heavy team, but they face the 13th-rated Eagles run defense after playing four straight games against run defenses ranking in the league's bottom 10. For the Eagles, their offense has performed even against the most difficult defenses they've faced (34, 30 and 28 points versus the Redskins' and Panthers' defenses), but they now face their toughest test of the year with the second-rated Broncos defense.
ATS pick: Lean on Denver
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Denver 16
ATS pick: Philadelphia and the under
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: These teams are fairly even coming in, as Carolina is sitting at 5-3 and plus-47 yards per game, while Atlanta comes in at 4-3 and plus-54 yards per game. I have been more impressed with Carolina's wins, however, as they have perhaps the best defense in the NFL. Chicago had a first and goal on Atlanta and failed on four shots at the end zone in the six-point defeat. Detroit had a game-winning touchdown overturned versus Atlanta. The Falcons also trailed the Jets in the fourth quarter and appear to be suffering from the Super Bowl-loser jinx. The Panthers are surprisingly laying less than a field goal in Charlotte with odds makers still looking back to last year's results, when Atlanta was a playoff team and Carolina finished at just 6-10. With this being Atlanta's third consecutive road contest, I fully expect the home team to get the job done in this one.
ATS pick: Carolina
Warren Sharp's take: This should be an interesting game from the Panthers after the team traded away Kelvin Benjamin, their No. 1 wide receiver and a close teammate to Cam Newton. The Panthers' offense already was struggling to run the ball, ranking 25th in rush efficiency despite playing the 26th-rated schedule of run defenses. Yes, the Falcons defense ranks 26th in pass rush efficiency against the NFL's worst schedule of offensive lines (we all know how badly Newton's confidence and play spins out of control if the pass rush gets to him) and the Panthers have one of the toughest run defenses that the Falcons have faced so far this year, but I lean toward the Falcons being able to do enough in the run game to set up the pass game.
ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 21, Atlanta 19
Pick: Under
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: I have been pointing out how the Jaguars have followed every great game with a poor game, followed by a great game, and I have been riding that roller coaster successfully. In the past 26 games, Jacksonville has been favored just six times and are 1-5 straight up in them. I feel last week's bye for Jacksonville was huge, as that could have been their down week, and they could be back up again here with Leonard Fournette expected to return from injury. Jacksonville is plus-61 yards per game this season, and the Bengals are minus-55 yards per game. The Jacksonville defense has recorded 33 sacks and Cincinnati has allowed 22. Once again, the angles cement it with the Bengals just 1-5 ATS as an away 'dog the past two seasons, and the Jaguars posting a 6-1 ATS mark following their past seven bye weeks.
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: The Jaguars have the No. 1 pass defense and total defense, but they rank dead last against the run. There are a couple of factors that could play into their favor. First, they have faced a brutal schedule of run offenses. Against top-half run offenses, the Jaguars allowed 61 percent of runs to grade as successful, but against bottom-half run offenses, they allowed just 44 percent. The Bengals offense ranks 27th in rushing efficiency, which provides hope for this Jaguars defense coming off the bye. Additionally, the Jaguars added Marcell Dareus from Buffalo to help clog those run lanes. With Fournette back, the Jaguars should be content with the ground game with a few targeted shots downfield mixed in.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 22, Cincinnati 16
ATS pick: Jacksonville and the under
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-7)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: The Texans defense was right at the top of the NFL entering the 2017 season. While it still remains in the upper echelon of the league, the unit has allowed 450 or more yards twice since the departure of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus (past three contests). With rookie Deshaun Watson under center, the Texans were in range of outright upsets against three quality opponents (New England, Kansas City and Seattle). But after his injury, they turn to Tom Savage. Indianapolis outgained Cincinnati last week 331-276, but have lost four games by 14-plus points (26.5 point per game average). Houston is plus-67 yards per game with Watson starting, but were held to just 203 yards in the opener with Savage as the starter. The Colts are the worst in the NFL in yardage differential at minus-111 per game on the year. While the Texans are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as a home favorite over the past three seasons, and the Colts at just 3-7-1 ATS as an AFC South away 'dog dating back to 2008, I'll pass on this one with the late change at quarterback.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: It was brutal to hear of Watson's torn ACL. This offense was the most entertaining in the league, thanks to the things Bill O'Brien was dialing up, but now they are starting Savage, who has proven to be one of the worst NFL quarterbacks in recent memory. It could certainly be in Houston's interest to maybe let Braxton Miller (a one-time Ohio State quarterback) throw some passes or find other ways to mix up the offense. It would be painful to watch the Texans destroy one of the NFL's best defenses on the road in the hostile environment of Seattle, and then come home and be impotent against the NFL's worst defense.
Pick: Over on Indianapolis team total of 19.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 26, Indianapolis 18
ATS pick: Houston and the under
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Arizona
Phil Steele's take: San Francisco has won just one of their past 23 games, including an 0-8 start to the 2017 campaign. Arizona, meanwhile, came into the season thinking playoffs but need a win here to even their record at 4-4. The Cardinals were already down running back David Johnson, offensive guard Mike Iupati and linebacker Markus Golden, then lost quarterback Carson Palmer in their most recent game. Drew Stanton has hit just 53 percent of his passes with a 14:20 TD:INT ratio in his career. While San Francisco hasn't compiled a lot of good spread records in recent years, they are 9-2 ATS inside of their division, dating back to the middle of 2015, when they covered at home against this very same Arizona squad. With some confidence coming in for the 49ers after a narrow three-point overtime loss earlier this year in the desert, I give them a solid chance of getting the outright upset win here as a small home 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on San Francisco
Warren Sharp's take: After covering but losing five straight close games, the 49ers faced two top-10 offenses and lost by 23-plus points in both games. That won't be a concern when they face the 25th-ranked offense of the Cardinals, but their health will be. Their offensive line does not seem capable of supporting the play of C.J. Beathard, and now the line is without Joe Staley and the receiving corps lost Pierre Garcon. After a terrible loss in London which saw the Cardinals lose Palmer, the team had a bye week to at least attempt to integrate Stanton. The Cardinals fortunately have a roster around Stanton that is far more talented than that of the 49ers, both offensively and defensively.
ATS pick: Lean on Arizona
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Arizona 23, San Francisco 21
Pick: Over
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: I was originally thinking Washington here, as Seattle has yet to play a four-quarter game. They have two blowout wins but trailed both Indianapolis and the New York Giants at the half. While Washington lost to Philadelphia by 13, Kansas City by nine and Dallas by 14, all three saw their opponents score late in the game. Washington is plus-35 yards per game this year, while Seattle is just plus-37 yards per game. Two key factors have me leaning to Seattle. Washington is coming off two physical divisional games versus Philadelphia and Dallas and now travels across the country to the home of the "12th Man." The main reason for my lean with the Seahawks, however, is due to the inexperienced offensive line that Washington will have to put on the field due to numerous injuries.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Erin Rynning's take: The Redskins' offensive line shined in the early season, but injuries and attrition have piled up. In fact, they could very well be without much of their starting unit, while turning to rookies and recent pickups. Unfortunately, the task will become magnified playing in the rocking and noisy Seattle venue, while matching up against the talented Seahawks defense. Russell Wilson lit up the banged-up Texans defense last week. However, this is still an offense that has sputtered throughout the campaign, while the overachieving Redskins defense keeps them in check.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: The Redskins' offensive line has fallen victim to clusters of injuries, and it won't be easy for this line to communicate and perform in the most hostile environment in the NFL. With the struggles on the line, the obvious offset will be for the Redskins to pass the ball quicker, but slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder has yet to practice this week and may miss the game with a hamstring injury. That leaves their most likely valve play in running back Chris Thompson, the center point of the NFL's best RB-pass offense. However, the Seahawks rank third best against RB passes. While Seattle will have to face this 13th-ranked Redskins defense, Washington is missing several starters, including Mason Foster and Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys gashed the Redskins in the rain last weekend, and while the Seahawks don't have a run game capable of replicating that, the Redskins are in an uphill battle thanks to untimely injuries and Seattle's strong defensive and deep-passing offense,.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 23, Washington 19
ATS pick: Washington and the under
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Kansas City
