How to bet Detroit at Green Bay
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/6/7
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Detroit Lions (-2) at Green Bay Packers
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent on Detroit
Phil Steele
This is a rare situation for both teams as the Lions head to Lambeau Field as an away favorite for just the second time in the past 26 years. The prior time they were listed as chalk came in the final week of 2011 when the Packers were resting their starters for the playoffs. Other than then, the Packers had not been a division home underdog since the 2006 opener against Chicago. The Lions are 3-8 ATS over the past 11 games following last weekend's loss to Pittsburgh, while the Packers have gone 9-1-1 ATS after their bye week. With Brett Hundley having another week to prepare as the starting quarterback for the injured Aaron Rodgers, I expect Green Bay's offense to display more consistency in this one.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Erin Rynning
The Packers' bye week came at the exact right time. They clearly needed the extra time to adjust their offense to Hundley. Look for a few new wrinkles to catch the Lions off-guard. In addition, this Packers team was dealing with quite a few injuries, and the week off gave many a chance to heal. The Lions are not playing well enough to be favored on the road. They've lost three straight while being outgained during five of their past six games with pressure mounting on coach Jim Caldwell.
Pick: Lean on Green Bay
Warren Sharp
Hopefully Green Bay will use Hundley much differently than it did heading into the bye vs. the Saints. In that game, the Packers ran 51 percent running plays in the first three quarters, compared to the 63 percent passing plays called up to that date. Mike McCarthy has to design more for Hundley in the passing game, and has to allow this team to run off of the pass.
Detroit is a better team than its record indicates. The Lions' recent losses came to the Steelers, Saints and Panthers, and there's absolutely nothing to feel bad about with that competition. They've played a brutal schedule, ranking top four in both defenses faced and offenses faced. The key offensively for Detroit will be to stay out of third downs by using high-percentage passes and running into optimal situations.
Pick: Lean on Green Bay
Mike Clay
Prediction: Detroit 22, Green Bay 21
ATS pick: Green Bay +2
John Parolin's prop bet
190.5 passing yards by Brett Hundley (O/U -110)
There aren't many players in the league who cover up flaws the way Aaron Rodgers does, and the best way to see that is taking him away from the Green Bay offense. Hundley hasn't proven he can run an NFL offense yet in a number of ways. Start with passes as simple as they come: Hundley has a league-worst 2.06 yards per attempt on throws 5 yards downfield or shorter with a 53 percent completion percentage. In standard pocket passing situations -- 80 percent of Hundley's pass attempts -- he has a touchdown and four interceptions to go with a league-worst 4.4 yards per attempt.
An average quarterback should have the opportunity to gain yards against the Lions, a team that has surrendered 254.6 pass yards per game (25th in the league). But even 191 yards is a lot for Hundley at his current 4.1 yards per attempt average -- he would need to throw 47 passes at that rate. Even some improvement in his rates would still require too much for a Packers team that has had some success running the ball of late.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/6/7
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Detroit Lions (-2) at Green Bay Packers
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent on Detroit
Phil Steele
This is a rare situation for both teams as the Lions head to Lambeau Field as an away favorite for just the second time in the past 26 years. The prior time they were listed as chalk came in the final week of 2011 when the Packers were resting their starters for the playoffs. Other than then, the Packers had not been a division home underdog since the 2006 opener against Chicago. The Lions are 3-8 ATS over the past 11 games following last weekend's loss to Pittsburgh, while the Packers have gone 9-1-1 ATS after their bye week. With Brett Hundley having another week to prepare as the starting quarterback for the injured Aaron Rodgers, I expect Green Bay's offense to display more consistency in this one.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Erin Rynning
The Packers' bye week came at the exact right time. They clearly needed the extra time to adjust their offense to Hundley. Look for a few new wrinkles to catch the Lions off-guard. In addition, this Packers team was dealing with quite a few injuries, and the week off gave many a chance to heal. The Lions are not playing well enough to be favored on the road. They've lost three straight while being outgained during five of their past six games with pressure mounting on coach Jim Caldwell.
Pick: Lean on Green Bay
Warren Sharp
Hopefully Green Bay will use Hundley much differently than it did heading into the bye vs. the Saints. In that game, the Packers ran 51 percent running plays in the first three quarters, compared to the 63 percent passing plays called up to that date. Mike McCarthy has to design more for Hundley in the passing game, and has to allow this team to run off of the pass.
Detroit is a better team than its record indicates. The Lions' recent losses came to the Steelers, Saints and Panthers, and there's absolutely nothing to feel bad about with that competition. They've played a brutal schedule, ranking top four in both defenses faced and offenses faced. The key offensively for Detroit will be to stay out of third downs by using high-percentage passes and running into optimal situations.
Pick: Lean on Green Bay
Mike Clay
Prediction: Detroit 22, Green Bay 21
ATS pick: Green Bay +2
John Parolin's prop bet
190.5 passing yards by Brett Hundley (O/U -110)
There aren't many players in the league who cover up flaws the way Aaron Rodgers does, and the best way to see that is taking him away from the Green Bay offense. Hundley hasn't proven he can run an NFL offense yet in a number of ways. Start with passes as simple as they come: Hundley has a league-worst 2.06 yards per attempt on throws 5 yards downfield or shorter with a 53 percent completion percentage. In standard pocket passing situations -- 80 percent of Hundley's pass attempts -- he has a touchdown and four interceptions to go with a league-worst 4.4 yards per attempt.
An average quarterback should have the opportunity to gain yards against the Lions, a team that has surrendered 254.6 pass yards per game (25th in the league). But even 191 yards is a lot for Hundley at his current 4.1 yards per attempt average -- he would need to throw 47 passes at that rate. Even some improvement in his rates would still require too much for a Packers team that has had some success running the ball of late.
The play: Under
