Weekend's worst bad beats
Rob Nelson
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend's gambling action.
Friday
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida Atlantic Owls
Line: Florida Atlantic -6.5
Of all the bad beats in 2017, this might have been the worst one. It's also safe to say that this was the first time in college football history that a head coach acknowledged an ATS loss on social media. That's Lane Kiffin for you, folks.
So what exactly happened?
Florida Atlantic took a 30-16 lead with 10:37 left, just in time for heavy rain to hit South Florida. Those who took the Owls on the closing line of -6.5 just needed to avoid two late Marshall scores. The Thundering Herd would respond with a wild 14-play drive that featured a successful fake punt, three Florida Atlantic penalties, and a diving 15-yard touchdown by Ryan Yurachek on fourth-and-10.
With the Owls now leading just 30-23, they went three-and-out, but then picked off Marshall's Chase Litton to get the ball back with 2:30 left. All Florida Atlantic had to do was run it three times, maybe get a first down, and if not, punt it back to Marshall with a few seconds left. But Kiffin and his coaching staff couldn't do simple math and kept calling kneel-downs for big losses. This set up a fourth-and-24 with 14 seconds left on which the Owls elected to have their punter intentionally take a safety, as he ran backward and slid through the back of the end zone to make the score 30-25, with eight seconds left.
That crushed those who went from winners to losers on that play, and if there is anything worse than a head coach botching time management to cost you a bet, it's that same coach joking about it afterward.
Final score: Florida Atlantic 30, Marshall 25 (Marshall covers)
Saturday
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line: Notre Dame -16.5
If you would have told those people who took Notre Dame -16.5 that the Fighting Irish would rack up 720 yards of offense and be ahead by 25 points in the fourth quarter, they would have certainly liked their chances. However, Wake Forest, who entered the game 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons, wouldn't go down without a fight.
The Demon Deacons ended up scoring touchdowns on each of their final four possessions, capped off by an Isaiah Robinson two-yard score with 51 seconds left to cut the final deficit from 18 points down to just 11. The 37 points scored by Wake Forest were the most by the team in 61 all-time games against an AP top-10 opponent.
Final score: Notre Dame 48, Wake Forest 37 (Wake Forest covers)
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils
Line: Arizona State -6.5
Colorado has thrived as a road underdog over the past two seasons, and the team looked like it would cover once again in this spot. The Buffaloes were in control throughout the first three quarters, leading 27-17 entering the fourth. Those who took the Buffs +6.5 just needed to avoid a complete destruction in the final 15 minutes.
Unfortunately for those bettors, Arizona State's offense couldn't be stopped down the stretch. The Sun Devils outscored Colorado 24-3 in the fourth quarter, as Manny Wilkins' 1-yard touchdown with 46 seconds left gave them a double-digit lead. The Buffaloes would get one last chance, but Steven Montez was picked off in the end zone on the game's final play to seal the fate of those on the underdog.
Final score: Arizona State 41, Colorado 30 (Arizona State covers)
Sunday
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Line: Over/under 41
Those who went with the under on this game must not be reading this weekly piece, as this marked the third-straight week that the under bet in a Baltimore game wound up as a bad beat.
With less than 10 minutes to go, the Titans led 16-6. The 22 combined points were still 19 shy of the closing over/under. Much to the dismay of those on the under, the offenses came alive late. After the teams exchanged touchdowns to make the score 23-13, Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace hooked up for a 1-yard touchdown with 46 seconds left to push the total over.
That score, along with Justin Tucker's extra point, also took away a winning bet for those on the Titans -3. Bettors may want to avoid the stress and unpredictability of taking a game involving the Ravens, who have now scored nine more fourth-quarter points in the last three weeks (41) than in the first three quarters of those same games (32).
Final score: Titans 23, Ravens 20 (total goes over)
Rob Nelson
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend's gambling action.
Friday
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida Atlantic Owls
Line: Florida Atlantic -6.5
Of all the bad beats in 2017, this might have been the worst one. It's also safe to say that this was the first time in college football history that a head coach acknowledged an ATS loss on social media. That's Lane Kiffin for you, folks.
So what exactly happened?
Florida Atlantic took a 30-16 lead with 10:37 left, just in time for heavy rain to hit South Florida. Those who took the Owls on the closing line of -6.5 just needed to avoid two late Marshall scores. The Thundering Herd would respond with a wild 14-play drive that featured a successful fake punt, three Florida Atlantic penalties, and a diving 15-yard touchdown by Ryan Yurachek on fourth-and-10.
With the Owls now leading just 30-23, they went three-and-out, but then picked off Marshall's Chase Litton to get the ball back with 2:30 left. All Florida Atlantic had to do was run it three times, maybe get a first down, and if not, punt it back to Marshall with a few seconds left. But Kiffin and his coaching staff couldn't do simple math and kept calling kneel-downs for big losses. This set up a fourth-and-24 with 14 seconds left on which the Owls elected to have their punter intentionally take a safety, as he ran backward and slid through the back of the end zone to make the score 30-25, with eight seconds left.
That crushed those who went from winners to losers on that play, and if there is anything worse than a head coach botching time management to cost you a bet, it's that same coach joking about it afterward.
Final score: Florida Atlantic 30, Marshall 25 (Marshall covers)
Saturday
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Line: Notre Dame -16.5
If you would have told those people who took Notre Dame -16.5 that the Fighting Irish would rack up 720 yards of offense and be ahead by 25 points in the fourth quarter, they would have certainly liked their chances. However, Wake Forest, who entered the game 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons, wouldn't go down without a fight.
The Demon Deacons ended up scoring touchdowns on each of their final four possessions, capped off by an Isaiah Robinson two-yard score with 51 seconds left to cut the final deficit from 18 points down to just 11. The 37 points scored by Wake Forest were the most by the team in 61 all-time games against an AP top-10 opponent.
Final score: Notre Dame 48, Wake Forest 37 (Wake Forest covers)
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils
Line: Arizona State -6.5
Colorado has thrived as a road underdog over the past two seasons, and the team looked like it would cover once again in this spot. The Buffaloes were in control throughout the first three quarters, leading 27-17 entering the fourth. Those who took the Buffs +6.5 just needed to avoid a complete destruction in the final 15 minutes.
Unfortunately for those bettors, Arizona State's offense couldn't be stopped down the stretch. The Sun Devils outscored Colorado 24-3 in the fourth quarter, as Manny Wilkins' 1-yard touchdown with 46 seconds left gave them a double-digit lead. The Buffaloes would get one last chance, but Steven Montez was picked off in the end zone on the game's final play to seal the fate of those on the underdog.
Final score: Arizona State 41, Colorado 30 (Arizona State covers)
Sunday
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Line: Over/under 41
Those who went with the under on this game must not be reading this weekly piece, as this marked the third-straight week that the under bet in a Baltimore game wound up as a bad beat.
With less than 10 minutes to go, the Titans led 16-6. The 22 combined points were still 19 shy of the closing over/under. Much to the dismay of those on the under, the offenses came alive late. After the teams exchanged touchdowns to make the score 23-13, Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace hooked up for a 1-yard touchdown with 46 seconds left to push the total over.
That score, along with Justin Tucker's extra point, also took away a winning bet for those on the Titans -3. Bettors may want to avoid the stress and unpredictability of taking a game involving the Ravens, who have now scored nine more fourth-quarter points in the last three weeks (41) than in the first three quarters of those same games (32).
Final score: Titans 23, Ravens 20 (total goes over)
