Wednesday 11/08/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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NBA Knowledge

Knicks won/covered four of last five games with Orlando; under is 6-3 in last nine series games. New York is 3-1-1 vs spread in last five visits here. Knicks won six of last seven games; three of their last four went over the total. NY is 1-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Orlando lost their last two games; they’re 0-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Last three Magic home teams stayed under the total.

Pacers won/covered their last six games with Detroit; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to the Motor City (over 3-2). Indiana lost at home last night, their third loss in row; Pacers are 3-2 as a road underdog. Over is 4-2 in Indiana road games. Detroit won five of its last six games; they’re 3-2 vs spread as home favorites. Under is 3-2 in their home games this season.

Lakers lost their last three games with Boston, but covered seven of last nine, three of last four in Beantown. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Lakers won three of last four games; they are 2-1 as road underdogs. LA’s last three games went over the total. Celtics won their last nine games (8-1 vs spread); they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Miami won/covered nine of last ten games with Phoenix; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Heat covered four of their last five visits to the desert. Miami lost five of last seven games; they are 1-3 on road, 0-1 as a road favorite. Last four Heat games stayed under the total. Suns lost their last three games; four of their last six games went over total. Phoenix is 2-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Minnesota is 8-1-1 vs spread in its last 10 games vs Golden State (2-8 SU); they’re 4-0-1 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Wolves won their last five games (4-0-1 vs spread); they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Over is 4-1 in Minnesota road tilts. Golden State won four in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 1-4 vs spread as home favorites. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
 

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NBA Long Sheet

NEW YORK (6 - 4) at ORLANDO (6 - 4) - 11/8/2017, 7:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 38-53 ATS (-20.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 61-91 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-3 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 4-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________

INDIANA (5 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 3) - 11/8/2017, 7:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 7-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 7-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________
LA LAKERS (5 - 5) at BOSTON (9 - 2) - 11/8/2017, 8:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
BOSTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________

MIAMI (4 - 6) at PHOENIX (4 - 7) - 11/8/2017, 9:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 120-157 ATS (-52.7 Units) in November games since 1996.
PHOENIX is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________

MINNESOTA (7 - 3) at GOLDEN STATE (8 - 3) - 11/8/2017, 10:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 89-60 ATS (+23.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Trend REport

INDIANA @ DETROIT
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

NEW YORK @ ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games on the road
New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against New York

LA LAKERS @ BOSTON
LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

MIAMI @ PHOENIX
Miami is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Phoenix
Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing Miami

MINNESOTA @ GOLDEN STATE
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
 

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StatFox Super Situations

LA LAKERS at BOSTON
Play Under - Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

MIAMI at PHOENIX
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a losing record 183-119 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 65.3 units ) 4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | -0.3 units )

MINNESOTA at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (GOLDEN STATE) top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more 29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
 

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Red-hot TWolves, Warriors battle

The new-look Wolves get their first shot at the kings of the West.

Heading into Monday night's game with the Heat, the Warriors had lost six straight games when scoring under 100 points—they hadn't won one since April of last year against the Spurs. But, despite a tough shooting night, Golden State broke that streak against Miami with an easy 97-80 win. It was the team's fourth straight victory, and their seventh in eight games after a surprising 1-2 start to the year. On Wednesday night the Dubs will host Minnesota in one of the more anticipated matchups of the young season, as the upstart Timberwolves have added superstar SF Jimmy Butler to a lineup that could pose a challenge to Golden State's Western Conference supremacy in years to come, if perhaps not this season. The Wolves are 7-3 on the year but 7-1 in games in which Butler has played, including recent victories over Dallas and Charlotte that have come by a combined 31 points. Minnesota has won five in a row. Over the last five seasons, teams coming off of three consecutive covers as a favorite (GSW) are 3-10 ATS in November games. Since 1996, road underdogs of 10 or more points allowing an opponent shooting percentage of at least .480 on the season (MIN) are 134-81 ATS.
The Warriors had trouble finding the mark against the Heat on Monday, shooting 29.2% from the floor in the first quarter before going on to shooting 36.8% on the night. As the final score suggests, though, the Heat fared worse (36.1%) thanks to some strong Golden State defense. The long-limbed Warriors also forced 23 turnovers from Miami, while committing only 15 of their own. Last season, the Warriors were second to only the Spurs in allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions. Their defense hasn't been quite as stingy this year at a defensive rating of 102.9, but that mark is still good for 13th in the league and, as the Miami performance showed, they're gelling quickly. SF Kevin Durant led the team in scoring against the Heat with 21 points, while also pitching in eight rebounds and six assists. He's shooting 53.0% from the floor this year. SG Klay Thompson and PF Draymond Green are also at least at the 50.0% mark (50.8% and 50.0, respectively), a mark that is unsustainable but representative of the team finding plenty of open looks. Green was one of the few Warriors who shot well against the Heat, as he was 4-of-6 from three-point land. PG Stephen Curry leads the team in scoring at 25.7 PPG, but is yet to score more than 22 points in a game through three November contests.

It's no surprise that Butler has fit in so well considering he's coached by Tom Thibodeau, the guy whose system he bought into so fully in Chicago. Butler is an old-school, hard-nosed hard worker, and the fact that he emphasizes full effort on the defensive end of the floor despite his superstar status serves as a positive example for teammates. He's only scoring 15.1 PPG, putting him third on the team, and has taken different roles in the offense depending on the game. On October 27th, he scored 25 points in a tight win over the Thunder. This past Saturday, he only managed four points in a 112-99 win against Dallas. The Timberwolves' leading scorer (and rebounder and shot-blocker) is 21-year-old C Karl-Anthony Towns, whose scoring 21.8 PPG (10.9 RPG; 2.0 BPG). His 33 pt/19 reb and 31/12 lines in those OKC and Dallas games, respectively, show the kind of dominant force he can be on offense and the boards. His incredibly poor defense, though, has come under fire already this year. He certainly has the physical tools, and if Thibs of all people can't straighten him out on that end, it will soon become a real concern. PG Jeff Teague and PF Taj Gibson join Butler as new starters in Minnesota this season, and Teague is averaging a career-high 8.4 APG. Former No. 1 draft pick SF Andrew Wiggins has noticeably improved his offensive skills in what is now his fourth year in the league
 

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Wednesday's Tip Sheet

Game of the Night: Wolves at Warriors

Minnesota (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) is finally coming around to become a legitimate playoff team in the Western Conference following a 13-year postseason drought. The Wolves own a solid 7-1 record when guard Jimmy Butler is in the lineup, while coming off five consecutive victories. Minnesota cruised past Dallas and Charlotte at home by double-digits, while limiting three straight opponents to below 100 points. Tom Thibodeau’s squad heads out west for a three-game road swing that extends to Phoenix on Saturday and Utah on Monday.

Golden State (8-3, 5-6 ATS) is fresh off four blowouts following a home loss to Detroit on October 29. The Warriors rolled past the Heat on Monday, 97-80 to cash as 14½-point favorites in spite of shooting 37% from the floor. Steve Kerr’s club began the season with a dreadful 1-6 ATS record, but has covered in each of their last four victories, although only one of those ATS covers came as a double-digit favorite.

Last season, the Warriors captured three of four meetings from the Wolves, but Minnesota managed a 3-0-1 ATS record in the series. Minnesota has compiled an incredible 8-1-1 ATS mark in the past 10 matchups with Golden State since 2014, including a 4-0-1 ATS ledger in its past five visits to Oracle Arena. Minnesota forward Andrew Wiggins was limited to 16 points in the first meeting last season, but scored 25, 24, and 24 points in the final three matchups with Golden State.

New Bird vs. Magic?

The Lakers/Celtics rivalry from the 1980’s is long gone although these teams met in the NBA Finals are recently as 2010. Young stars for each of these legendary franchises have taken over with Boston’s Kyrie Irving squaring off Los Angeles rookie Lonzo Ball at TD Garden for the first time. Boston (9-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) lost its first two games of the season before ripping off nine consecutive victories. The Celtics failed to cover in their last contest on Monday in a three-point win at Atlanta, snapping an eight-game ATS hot streak.

Los Angeles (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) leaves the west coast for the first time this season, trying to build off back-to-back home wins over Brooklyn and Memphis. The Lakers are currently on a 4-0 ATS hot streak, which includes a cover in their last road game, a 113-110 setback at Portland as 6½-point underdogs. Ball has struggled to score in his rookie campaign as he reached double-figures only twice, while scoring a combined 15 points in his past three games.

The Lakers have seen success in their last few visits to Beantown from an ATS perspective by covering in the past two trips to Boston as double-digit underdogs, including a 112-104 victory in 2015.

Addition by Subtraction

Suddenly the Knicks (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) look like a new team since dealing Carmelo Anthony to the Thunder prior to the season. New York has overcome an 0-3 start by winning six of its last seven games, including pulling off another epic second half comeback in Tuesday’s 118-113 home triumph over Charlotte as short underdogs. Kristaps Porzingis led the rally for New York by scoring 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting, while former OKC sharpshooter Doug McDermott put up 20 points off the bench on 7-of-8 shooting.

The Knicks head to Orlando with no rest to take on the surprising Magic (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS). Orlando looks to finish off its homestand with a victory after losing to Chicago and Boston by double-digits. The Magic thrived offensively through their first eight games by topping the 113-point mark seven times, but Orlando has taken a step back of late by putting up 83 and 88 in the last two contests. Last season, the Knicks claimed three of four meetings from the Magic, including a pair of victories in central Florida.

All Systems Go

Was this finally the season that Stan Van Gundy’s Pistons would break out and return to the playoffs in the East? Detroit (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) is one of the top teams from an ATS perspective, while owning a 3-1-1 ATS mark at brand new Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons continue a five-game homestand with the Pacers after beating the Bucks and Kings on a back-to-back set last weekend. Detroit has plenty to play for against an Indiana squad that swept the Pistons last season, while limiting the Pistons to 98 points or less three times.

Indiana (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) continues to ride a roller-coaster this season, winning three straight with victories over Cleveland and San Antonio in a four-day span, but now riding a three-game skid. The most recent loss came at home to New Orleans on Tuesday, 117-112, as all three teams the Pacers have lost to in this stretch have been on fire of late (Pelicans, Knicks, 76ers).

Fire Starters

The Heat and Suns will look to keep the building hot in Phoenix when they meet up. Miami (4-6 SU, 2-6-2 ATS) continues a six-game road trip as the Heat have posted a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS record so far. The Heat dropped a one-point decision at Denver last Friday, but bounced back by holding off the Clippers on Sunday, 104-101. Miami’s defense performed well on Monday, but its offense was non-existent in a 97-80 loss at Golden State as the Heat are riding a four-game UNDER streak.

The Suns (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) finally moved on from Eric Bledsoe as the disgruntled guard was dealt to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Phoenix heated up following the firing of head coach Earl Watson by going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS from October 23 through November 1, but have gone backwards of late by posting an 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games. The Suns lost eight straight meetings with the Heat from 2012 through 2016, but split a pair of matchups last season, including a 99-90 home victory as five-point favorites.
 

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NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Wednesday's Picks and Analysis

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic (-5.5, 213.5)

Not many teams can get by when the two guys at the top of the point guard depth chart go down to injury. Magic starter Elfrid Payton strained his hamstring in the second game of the season and backup D.J. Augustin pulled his hammy at Memphis last week.

Orlando is trying to make due with third stringer Sheldon Mack sharing the point guard duties with swing man Jonathan Simmons. The experiment is not working out very well. The Magic are 0-2 straight up and against the spread since Augustin joined Payton on the injured list.

“It’s just a challenge because you have to put in a different guy in that position who has to run the team and he doesn’t really know all the sets from that position,” Magic center Nikola Vucevic told the Orlando Sentinel. “It was such a short time for Simmons to learn them all. So you kind of have to go away from some of the stuff that was working really well for you because he’s not at that position.”

Making matters worse, the Magic have to dream up a game plan for slowing down the Big Apple’s Big Unicorn. Aaron Gordon will likely get the assignment guarding Knicks big man Kristaps Porzingis. Gordon should be able to keep up with the Zinger, but he’s giving up six inches. It could mean a lot of clean looks at the rim for Porzingis.

Pick: Knicks +5.5

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-11, 229.5)

This is a larger spread on the surface than you would expect just by looking at the two records of the teams playing. The 7-3 T-Wolves enter the Bay Area riding a five-game win streak and own a tidy 5-0-1 ATS mark vs. the Warriors in their last six matchups.

The difference between the two sides is the numbers say the Wolves aren’t as good as their record and the Warriors are better than theirs.

Minnesota is 5-1 this season in games decided by 10 or fewer points. The club has also been blown out by Detroit and Indiana which helps explain why it owns a mediocre -0.5 net rating. Golden State, meanwhile is outscoring its opponents by 13.5 points per 100 possessions and sits first in Covers.com NBA power rankings – 11 spots above the Timberwolves.

Pick: Warriors -11

Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 22-22

Total Streaks

*The Under is 12-3 in the Pistons’ last 15 home games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Magic’s last four games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last four games.

Injury to Watch

Pacers center Domantas Sabonis missed Tuesday’s home loss against the Pelicans and is questionable to play against the Pistons because of a strained calf. Sabonis was the fill-in starting center while Myles Turner was out and he played great. The second-year pro is the Pacers’ fourth-leading scorer at 13.5 points per game and leading rebounder at 10.3 per game.

Trends

*The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days’ rest.
*The Heat are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games.

Consensus

Nearly 65 percent of players like the C’s to cover as 8.5-point home favorites tonight against the Laker
 

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NBA GOTD Betting Preview: Timberwolves at Warriors

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-10.5, 229.5)

The Golden State Warriors wow fans with their offensive exploits, but they also do strong work on the other end of the floor. The Warriors, who led the NBA in defensive field-goal percentage en route to the championship last season, will try to follow up their best defensive performance of the 2017-18 campaign with another strong effort when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday.

Golden State did not get off to the best start on the defensive end this season but is coming on of late and put everything together while holding the Miami heat to 36.1 percent shooting in a 97-80 victory on Monday. "I thought it was our best defensive effort of the year," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "It was tremendous. We forced 23 turnovers, we were attentive on our switching. ... I thought we made really good decisions out there." The Timberwolves should pose a challenge to that defense after averaging 114.4 points during a five-game winning streak. Minnesota boasts five scorers averaging double figures, led by Karl-Anthony Towns' 21.8 points, and is enjoying the franchise's first five-game winning streak since 2009.

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 10-point home favorites and that spread has been bet up slightly to -10.5. The total hit betting boards at 228 and has been bumped to 229.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Timberwolves -
C J. Patton (Out Indefinitely, Toe).

Warriors - No injuries to report.

POWER RANKINGS: Timberwolves (-7.8 ) - Warriors (-18) + home court (-3) = Warriors -13.2

CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES:

T-Wolves +4,000
Warriors -200

ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-3-1 O/U): Minnesota brought in veterans Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague over the summer to supplement a solid young corps, and they believe the team is only scratching the surface. "This is still a work in progress," Teague told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We're still trying to figure out each other. It can be a lot better. We all know that. We're starting to get into a groove here. But we have miles to go to be the team we want to be." Teague recorded 18 points and 12 assists in a 112-94 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday to continue his own groove with a fourth double-double in five games.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Golden State leads the NBA in scoring average (118.5 points) and assists (30.5) but suffered through a rare off shooting night while connecting at 36.8 percent in Monday's win. That slump did not extend to forward Draymond Green, who scored 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting and is 23-of-34 from the floor during a four-game winning streak. The reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year averaged 7.1 points on 36.4 percent shooting in the first seven games but scored at least 15 points in each of the last four contests.

TRENDS:

* Timberwolves are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games.
* Over is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 vs. Western Conference.
* Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 62 percent of the spread wagers are on the road underdog Wolves while 72 percent of the totals selections are on the Over.
 

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College Football Week 11

Western Michigan lost two of three games since its epic 71-68 OT win over Buffalo; four of their last six games went over total. Western ran ball for 315 yards in 35-28 home loss to Central Mich LW- they’re 1-3 as a home favorite this year. Kent State lost five of last six games; they allowed 563 yards in last two games, are 2-3 as road dogs. Favorites covered eight of last nine Kent-WMU games; Flashes lost three of last four visits to Kalamazoo, with all three losses by 23+ points- Kent covered last three series games. Under is 5-2 in last seven Kent games.

Ohio (+16) upset Toledo 31-26 LY, in teams’ first meeting since 2010; total yardage was 560-512. Rockets won last three visits to Athens, by 7-9-7 points. Toledo won its last five games, covering last four; they’re 3-1 on road, with all three wins by 13+ points- they lost 52-30 at unbeaten Miami, FL. Ohio won three in row, six of last seven games; they’re 4-1 at home, with a 26-23 loss to Central Michigan. Four of Bobcats’ last five games went over the total. MAC home underdogs are 3-9 vs spread this season.

Eastern Michigan snapped a 6-game skid LW with 56-14 win over Ball St; all is of those losses were by 7 or less points. Eagles are 1-4 on road, with win 16-13 at Rutgers. Central Michigan won three of its last four games- they scored 91 points in winning last two games. CMU won six of last eight games with Eastern Michigan, winning three of last four here, winning by 7-32-48 points. EMU outgained Central 538-383 in LY’s win. Over is 3-1 in last four EMU games, 2-5 in last seven Chippewa games.

KENT ST (2 - 7) at W MICHIGAN (5 - 4) - 11/8/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-0 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TOLEDO (8 - 1) at OHIO U (7 - 2) - 11/8/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
TOLEDO is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TOLEDO is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
TOLEDO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-0 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

E MICHIGAN (3 - 6) at C MICHIGAN (5 - 4) - 11/8/2017, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


KENT STATE @ WESTERN MICHIGAN
Kent State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Western Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kent State's last 7 games
Western Michigan is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Western Michigan is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

TOLEDO @ OHIO
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toledo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Ohio
Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Ohio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games when playing at home against Eastern Michigan
 

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Wednesday's MAC Action

There are three games on tap in the MAC on Wednesday night. That means college football bettors have six options with sides and totals. Let’s get you ready for the action with in-depth previews of two games and some notes on the other.

Toledo at Ohio

In what might be a preview of the MAC Championship Game, Ohio (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) will play host to Toledo in a battle between division leaders. The Bobcats were in a first-place tie with Akron (pending the Zips’ Tuesday night result at Miami (OH) in the East with identical 4-1 league records. Meanwhile, Toledo holds a one-half game lead over Northern Illinois in the West. The Rockets are 5-0 in conference play, while the Huskies are 4-1.

As of Tuesday night, most betting shops had Toledo (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) listed as a four-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 65. The Bobcats were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).

Toledo took its only loss at Miami by a 52-30 count as a 13.5-point road underdog. However, this was a misleading final, as the Rockets led 16-10 at halftime and trailed by only eight midway through the fourth quarter.

Jason Candle’s team is 3-0 both SU and ATS as a road favorite this season. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five such spots since Candle took over for current Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell going into the 2016 campaign.

Toledo has ripped off five consecutive wins since the loss at Miami. The Rockets have covered the number in four straight, winning each of those games by double-digit margins. They’re off last week’s 27-17 win over No. Illinois last Thursday as 7.5-point home favorites. Senior quarterback Logan Woodside completed 23-of-31 passes for 361 yards, while senior RB Terry Swanson rushed for 116 yards and three TDs on 29 carries. Sophomore WR Diontae Jonson had 10 receptions for 166 yards, while sophomore TE Jordan Fisher brought down six catches for 102 yards.

Woodside, a first-team All-MAC selection in 2016 when he threw for 4,129 yards with a stellar 45/9 TD-INT, hasn’t missed a beat despite losing his favorite target Cody Thompson to a season-ending injury. Thompson, a senior WR who was also a first-team All-MAC pick in ’16, went down in early October. He had 28 catches for 537 yards and four TDs in the team’s first four games (and change; he was injured early in a 20-15 home win over Eastern Michigan). Woodside has connected on 64.3 percent of his throws for 2,656 yards with a 19/2 TD-INT ratio.

Diontae Jonson has a team-best 46 receptions for 859 yards and eight TDs. Jon’Vea Johnson, a second-team All-MAC selection last season, has 24 grabs for 354 yards and three TDs.

Toledo is three-deep in the backfield. Swanson gets the bulk of the touches and he’s rushed for 844 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Shakif Seymour has run for 468 yards and six TDs with a 6.6 YPC average, while Art Thompkins has rushed for 466 yards and one TD with a 5.5 YPC average.

Toledo is sixth in the nation in total offense, averaging 519.7 yards per game. The Rockets are ranked 19th in the country in passing offense, 23rd in rushing and 14th in scoring with a 39.0 points-per-game average.

Since losing 26-23 to Central Michigan as a 10.5-point home favorite on Oct. 7, Frank Solich’s 13th team at Ohio has won three consecutive games both SU and ATS. Solich’s squad has won those three games by margins of 17 points or more, including last Tuesday’s 45-28 win over Miami (OH.) as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 73 combined points soared above the 54-point total to provide the Bobcats with their third straight ‘over.’ Nathan Rourke completed 21-of-33 passes for 294 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rourke absolutely dominated the game, rushing for 54 yards and three TDs on 10 attempts as well. RB A.J. Ouellette added 80 rushing yards on 20 carries, while senior WR Brendan Cope had five catches for 80 yards and one TD. Papi White contributed five receptions for 80 yards and one TD.

Ohio’s only other loss of the year came in Week 2 when it dropped a 44-21 decision at Purdue. The Bobcats hosted Kansas in non-conference play, defeating the Jayhawks 42-20 as 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’

Rourke has completed 56.7 percent of his passes for 1,517 yards with a 13/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 548 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.2 YPC. Ouellette has run for a team-best 832 yards and six TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Dorian Brown has added 458 rushing yards, four TDs on the ground and a 5.7 YPC average.

Cope has been Rouke’s favorite target, making 31 catches for 436 yards and three TDs. Andrew Meyer has 25 receptions for 361 yards and two TDs, while White has 17 grabs for 312 yards and two TDs.

During Solich’s tenure, Ohio has compiled an 11-5 spread record in 16 games as a home underdog.

Toledo saw its 12-game winning streak over Ohio snapped in a 31-26 loss as a 15-point home favorite in last season’s meeting. Brown was the catalyst for the winners, rushing for 212 yards and one TD on 29 carries. White had three catches for 64 yards and one TD, in addition to five rushing attempts for 54 yards. In the losing effort, Woodside threw for 438 yards and three TDs with one interception. Swanson ran for 58 yards on 10 carries, while J-Johnson had six receptions for 156 yards and two TDs.

The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall for the Bobcats, 4-1 in their home outings. They’ve watched their games net combined scores of 66.9 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Rockets, 2-2 in their four road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 63.4 PPG.

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan

As of Tuesday night, most spots had Eastern Michigan (3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS) installed as a two-point road favorite. The Chippewas were +105 to win outright.

Eastern Michigan brought its brutal six-game losing streak to an end with last week’s 56-14 bludgeoning of Ball St. as a 25-point home favorite. Presuming you’d like me to define a ‘brutal’ six-game losing streak, here goes: EMU lost three of the six games in overtime, including back-to-back OT setbacks before the win over the Cardinals. The six defeats came by 23 combined points and the OT home loss to Ohio was the widest margin (seven; 27-20).

EMU started the season 2-0 both SU and ATS with a home win vs. Charlotte (24-7) and a 16-13 triumph at Rutgers. In the victory over Ball State, senior QB Brogan Roback connected on 15-of-21 passes for 263 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ian Eriksen ran 21 times for 114 yards and one TD, while Sergio Bailey contributed two catches for 110 yards and one TD.

For the season, Roback has completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,347 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. Bailey is his favorite target, hauling in 46 receptions for 763 yards and six TDs. Meanwhile, Antoine Porter has 38 catches for 464 yards and four TDs, while John Niupalau has 24 grabs for 328 yards and three TDs.

Eriksen, EMU’s junior RB, has produced a team-high 535 yards and five TDs with a 4.4 YPC average.

Eastern Michigan has lost four of its five games on the road, but it has hooked up its backers with an incredible 5-0 spread record.

This is only the second time Eastern Michigan has been a road favorite during Chris Creighton’s four-year tenure. The Eagles took the cash in the lone prior such situation by beating Charlotte 37-19 last year as three-point road ‘chalk.’

Central Michigan (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS since dropping three consecutive games. John Bonamego’s squad won 35-28 at Western Michigan last week as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas rallied from a 28-14 deficit with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Shane Morris threw both of his TD passes in the final stanza, including a 77-yard scoring strike to Corey Willis with 2:37 left. Jonathan Ward rushed for 130 yards and one TD on 18 carries. Morris threw for 243 yards without a pick and he also had a pair of scoring runs. Willis caught five balls for 148 yards and one TD, while Ward added four receptions for 81 yards.

For the season, Morris has completed 55.2 percent of his passes for 2,209 yards with an 18/11 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 136 yards and three scores. Ward has run for 590 yards and five TDs with a 5.2 YPC average. Willis, a second-team All-MAC selection last season, has 28 receptions for 441 yards and five TDs. He missed four games with an injury, though. Mark Chapman has a team-best 44 catches for 593 yards and three TDs, while Ward has 38 grabs for 326 yards and one TD.

CMU has limped to a 1-2 SU record and a 0-3 ATS mark at home. The Chippewas are 2-3 ATS as home ‘dogs on Bonamego’s watch, failing to cover in their lone such spot this year in a 30-10 loss to Toledo.

CMU has won four in a row over EMU until losing 26-21 last year. The Eagles prevailed thanks to Roback’s 24-yard scoring strike to Bailey with 21 ticks remaining.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for CMU, 3-0 in its home contests. The Chippewas have seen their games produce average combined scores of 53.9 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for EMU, 3-2 in its five road assignments. Their games have netted average combined scores of 45.0 PPG.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Western Michigan will host Kent State in a third #MACtion game on Wednesday night. This 7:00 p.m. Eastern kick will be on the CBS Sports College Network. As of Tuesday night, most spots had the Broncos installed as 21.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5. The Golden Flashes haven’t scored more than 17 points against an FBS foes all year long. Their team total was 13 at most books as of Tuesday night.

Miami junior DE Demetrious Jackson had season-ending knee surgery on Monday. This is a big loss for the ‘Canes, who are poised to take on Notre Dame in South Florida on Saturday. Jackson had recorded 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks, four TFL’s, one interception with a four-yard return, one QB hurry and two passes broken up.

5Dimes.eu has Alabama listed as a seven-point favorite over Georgia for a potential matchup at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta during the first weekend of December.
 

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Toledo-Ohio is pretty interesting as this is probably the first of two meetings these teams will have. Ohio can take over sole possession of the top spot in their half of the MAC with a win. But the game they have to win is next Tuesday at Akron. Toledo is now alone on top of their division plus they have the tie breaker against Northern Illinois after defeating the Huskies last week. Both teams sound very excited about this matchup though, and chances are it’s going to be a pretty high scoring game. Toledo QB Woodside rarely makes mistakes and the Rockets can utilize three running backs, each of whom is averaging better than five yards per carry. The Bobcats are ground oriented with Ouelette and QB Rourke. The latter is kind of a sketchy passer but he’s off a really good game vs. Miami. I think it’s a tossup that should be close all the way, making the points with Ohio of some value. Just not enough at this point to warrant a play.

Western Michigan line appears too high. But Kent State has been really bad and their head coach does some weird stuff. Last week against Bowling Green the Flashes go down 17-0 but then put together a nice drive and get a TD. The defense then gets a stop. So for reasons only he knows, Paul Haynes decides that’s the right time to put in freshman Crum, and he immediately turns the ball over. I would only consider Kent State here though. WMU is clearly not the same team with QB Wassink injured and the backup Goddard was beyond awful last week in the loss to CMU. Assuming we see WMU run the ball at every opportunity and Kent State cannot stop the run. Gun to head, Golden Flashes but I just can’t risk money on them.

EMU-CMU is a really good game. I think the Eagles are the better team, but EMU also leads the entire nation in close losses. All six of their defeats by 7 or less. Meanwhile CMU has been in three close games and the Chips have won them all. I guess since this figures close, I’d have to lean ever so slightly to the team that knows how to win the tight ones, which would be CMU.
 

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NHL Knowledge

Minnesota won its last seven games with Toronto; last 10 series games stayed under the total. Wild won their last three games in this building. Minnesota lost three of last four games; they’re 2-4 on the road. Over is 5-4-1 in their last ten games. Maple Leafs lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-2 in last five home tilts. Toronto’s last three games went over the total.

Rangers won their last five games with Boston; over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Bruins were outscored 15-7 in losing their last four visits to Manhattan. Boston is 0-5 this season is game following a win; they’re 1-3 on the road. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Rangers won their last four games, scoring 18 goals; over is 8-2 in their last 10. New York won four of its last five home games.

Road team won six of last seven Lightning-Shark games; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Tampa Bay split its last four games in the Shark Tank. Lightning won six of last eight games overall, four of last five on the road- over is 3-1 in their last four road games. San Jose won its last four games, allowing six goals; their last six games stayed under the total. Sharks won their last four home games.

MINNESOTA (5-6-0-2, 12 pts.) at TORONTO (9-7-0-0, 18 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-6 ATS (+19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 84-101 ATS (-60.4 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 129-142 ATS (-70.6 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
TORONTO is 359-386 ATS (-81.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.3 Units)

BOSTON (6-4-0-3, 15 pts.) at NY RANGERS (7-7-0-2, 16 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 2-7 ATS (-8.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
BOSTON is 24-30 ATS (-21.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 186-148 ATS (+338.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
BOSTON is 143-99 ATS (+23.4 Units) in November games since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 5-14 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 119-121 ATS (-65.9 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 134-134 ATS (-85.3 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 96-109 ATS (-43.9 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 5-1 (+4.4 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 5-1-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)

TAMPA BAY (11-2-0-2, 24 pts.) at SAN JOSE (8-5-0-0, 16 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 43-91 ATS (+151.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 191-141 ATS (+43.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 168-145 ATS (-79.1 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 58-57 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 3-1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units

MINNESOTA @ TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

BOSTON @ NY RANGERS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston

TAMPA BAY @ SAN JOSE
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Jose's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

StatFox Super Situations

BOSTON at NY RANGERS
Play Against - Any team against the money line (NY RANGERS) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) in the first half of the season 57-28 since 1997. ( 67.1% | 30.0 units )

BOSTON at NY RANGERS
Play Against - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (NY RANGERS) after having won 4 of their last 5 games, with a losing record 52-32 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.9% | 31.5 units )

BOSTON at NY RANGERS
Play Against - Any team against the money line (NY RANGERS) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) 148-94 since 1997. ( 61.2% | 57.0 units )
 

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MORNING LINE REPORT

Today’s intro isn’t going to be about hockey, so if you would prefer to just get to today’s games feel free to skip below. It won’t hurt my feelings.

It’s with a heavy heart I write this piece this morning. Some of you know this about me but most of you probably don’t. I’m a die-hard Toronto Blue Jays fan. They are the only sports team in any league that I have been a fan for my whole life. The 1992 and 1993 World Series moments were the highlight of my childhood as a sports fan.

The news late yesterday afternoon of Roy Halladay dying in a plane crash instantly hit me hard. I had a shower where the water helped mask my tears and then I went for a long walk. As someone who has dealt with mental health issues over the past couple of years it was a difficult night for me as I began questioning a lot of things again.

Some things are bigger than hockey. Roy Halladay was bigger than life.

Roy Halladay was an incredible baseball player but he was an exceptional human being. His kindness and outlook on life is something every person could learn from. This is a screwed up world we live in and to lose someone who you looked up to as a hero-type figure is difficult to process.

I had wanted to write more about this today but I can’t even get through anymore without the tears blanketing my eyes. I strongly suggest reading the piece written by Ken Rosenthal last night on Halladay as it’s fantastic. The Athletic is normally a subscription site but they made this piece free to everyone and I thank them for that kind gesture. I retweeted the link on my Twitter this morning. It had some stories from his former teammates in Philadelphia but he’s also going to have one later with stories from Toronto’s side.

In terms of hockey, it had felt like it was coming for a few days now. That first really bad night of the year where if it could go wrong – it would. And it happened last night as we came out on the wrong side of some third period coin flips and ended with a 1-4 record. When your only victory of the night is with the Buffalo Sabres then you know it was probably a rough one. Let’s get back at it today.

MINNESOTA WILD @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Alex Stalock (confirmed)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)

Injury Report
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out)
Toronto – Matthews (questionable)

The Minnesota Wild kicked off a four game road trip with another poor effort in Monday’s 5-3 loss at Boston. Devan Dubnyk was pulled after 40 minutes and gave way to Alex Stalock. Dubnyk has been a big reason why the Wild continue to struggle as he’s well below his career averages with just a .907 save percentage and a goals-against average of over three. He just doesn’t look right and I’m not sure if he’s battling an unknown injury or what but he needs to be better if the Wild hope to turn this season around. The Wild begin a back-to-back tonight so he’ll give way to Stalock here who will get the start against his former team.

This is going to be a bit of a grudge game for Stalock who was traded from San Jose to Toronto but never actually played a game with them. The team literally told him they didn’t need him and he was placed on waivers immediately. He didn’t even get a chance to play much for the Marlies in the AHL so he’ll have extra motivation to win this game.

Fun time was over in practice yesterday as Boudreau took a new approach after a tough loss. A couple of weeks ago after a 1-0 loss to Vancouver, Boudreau let the team off the hook with a “fun” practice to try and keep things loose. Yesterday was anything but loose as he put the Wild through a grueling near hour-long practice followed by an extensive video session. Boudreau also called out Nino Niederreiter for his lack of effort during Monday’s game and then the rest of the team for not working hard enough.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had lost five of their previous six games before Monday’s harder than expected 4-3 shootout win over Vegas.

The big news for the Leafs here is Auston Matthews was absent from practice yesterday as he’s dealing with soreness. The world almost imploded on Monday when it was announced on Twitter that Matthews left practice just minutes into the session and did not return. He was a game-time decision that night but ended up playing and had a good game but Babcock thought it was clear he was lacking his normal power. Babcock said he wasn’t sure if Matthews might need to miss a game so that will be the biggest thing to watch for this morning.

William Nylander, fresh out of Babcock’s doghouse played center in yesterday’s practice and Babcock was less than thrilled about it and said he isn’t sure what the lines would look like for tonight if Matthews is out. As deep as the Leafs were to begin the season they are suddenly struggling with their depth down the middle.

This line opened a touch high but has dropped significantly with the sharp move this morning. I had written this previously with Minnesota locked in as a +131 play and the move happened right when I was about to submit today’s report. Technically there isn’t the usual amount of value I recommend for a play but it’s still a touch over my range so I’m still going to play the Wild tonight.

BOSTON BRUINS @ NEW YORK RANGERS

Projected Goaltenders
Boston – Tuukka Rask (confirmed)
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist (likely)

Injury Report
Boston – Krejci (out), Backes (out), Spooner (out), Marchand (out), McQuaid (out)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries

The Boston Bruins took two out of three on their homestand, capped by Monday’s 5-3 win over Minnesota and now hit the road for a pair of games. The Bruins play a home-and-home against Toronto after this stop in New York so this might be a game they overlook a bit with the big rivalry on deck.

The big news here is Brad Marchand has already officially been ruled out for tonight.

The Bruins were able to overcome his absence in Monday’s game against a lackluster Wild team who didn’t show up until it was too late in the third period. They might not be so fortunate tonight against a Rangers team who have suddenly won four straight while averaging 4.5 goals a game.

The New York Rangers continued their recent surge with a comeback 5-3 victory over Columbus on Monday night which has temporarily removed Alain Vigneault from the hot seat. The Rangers 5-on-5 play actually hasn’t been the best over this recent run but their powerplay is firing on all cylinders with six goals over the last four games. Vigneault has also shortened his bench lately, including the entire third period last game where he only rolled three lines. It’s helped in the short-term but playing without a fourth line at all isn’t going to be sustainable. New York has been fortunate with one of the easiest travel schedules to begin the season and things don’t really get tough for them until January so maybe Vigneault can continue squeezing everything he can from the current setup.

This line opened just below where it should be and a small drop overnight has given us enough value to play the Rangers tonight. There’s not a lot of wiggle room here so hopefully we can get this line early enough before an expected move.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ SAN JOSE SHARKS

Projected Goaltenders
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy/Peter Budaj (unknown)
San Jose – Martin Jones (likely)

Injury Report
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
San Jose – Martin (out), Vlasic (probable), Thornton (probable)

The Tampa Bay Lightning found their way back into the win column with Saturday’s 5-4 shootout win over Columbus and now hit the road for the three game trek through California.

The Lightning will travel to Los Angeles for tomorrow’s game on the back-to-back and it’s unclear whether we’ll see Vasilevskiy or Budaj tonight.

The San Jose Sharks are banking points on their current five game homestand with their third consecutive win on Saturday, 2-1 over Anaheim.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic has fully practiced the last two days and is expected to return to the lineup tonight after missing time going through concussion protocol. His presence will be critical tonight to slow down the top line of Stamkos and Kucherov.
Another player to look for today is Joe Thornton who left Monday’s practice early and did not participate yesterday in what DeBoer called a “maintenance day”. DeBoer said he expects Thornton to play tonight but we’ll wait and see.

Kevin Labanc was sent down to the AHL on Sunday. He was recently dropped from the top line to the fourth but DeBoer insists it had nothing to do with his compete level. Labanc was off to a nice start so the demotion was interesting.

My numbers say we had a big edge on Tampa Bay based on the opener but an early sharp move this morning has moved the Bolts to a favorite where they should be. There’s just enough value left to make this a play but I’m going to wait until a goaltender confirmation and re-evaluate. If Vlasic ends up not playing for some reason (and Thornton to a lesser extent) then this would still be an auto-play on the Lightning so we’ll look for that confirmation, as well.
 

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Projected Starting Goalies:

51 Minnesota Wild +115 Over 6 -110 Dubnyk: 4-5-1, 3.03, 0.907 (5-1-1, 2.46, .922)
52 Toronto Maple Leafs -135 Under 6 -110 Andersen: 8-6-0, 3.43, 0.895 (2-2-0, 2.78, .893)

53 Boston Bruins +115 Over 5½ -110 Rask: 3-4-2, 2.73, 0.903 (9-7-3, 2.25, .923)
54 New York Rangers -135 Under 5½ -110 Lundqvist: 6-4-2, 3.07, 0.900 (25-12-2, 1.93, .936)

55 Tampa Bay Lightning +100 Over 5½ -115 Vasilevskiy: 11-1-1, 2.52, 0.924 (0-1-0, 2.56, .906)
56 San Jose Sharks -120 Under 5½ -105 Jones: 7-3-0, 1.98, 0.930 (2-0-0, 1.50, .946)
 

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