Thursday 11/09/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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Soccer

World Cup

2:45pm ET

Northern Ireland v Switzerland

Last Head-To-Heads in Northern Ireland:
1-0 (Northern Ireland win)

Recent Form:
Northern Ireland: 4-2
Switzerland: 5-1

KEY STAT: Northern Ireland have lost only three of their last 18 matches at Windsor Park

EXPERT VERDICT: If Northern Ireland are to make it to a second-successive major tournament then they will have to do so the hard way. Judged on group-stage performances, Switzerland were the best of the eight group runners-up in the playoffs and that is backed up by Fifa, who rank the Swiss the highest of those eight nations. In their home qualifying victories over Czech Rep and Norway, Northern Ireland had less possession but showed exemplary organisation and patience. Roared on by a vociferous Windsor Park crowd, they can claim a draw.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
 

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Soccer

World Cup

2:45pm ET

Croatia v Greece

Last Head-To-Heads in Croatia:
0-0
2-2
1-1

Recent Form:
Croatia: 3-2-1
Greece: 2-1-3

KEY STAT: Croatia have conceded just once in four home games

EXPERT VERDICT: Croatia will be disappointed they didn’t beat Iceland to top spot in Group I but can make amends and move one step closer to Russia with victory over Greece. The Croatians are a classy unit and should claim a first-leg lead against the visitors, who are faltering and have won just two of their last eight matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Croatia to win 3-1 (1)
 

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Soccer

World Friendly International

2:45pm ET

Scotland v Holland

Last Head-To-Heads in Scotland:
0-1 (Holland win)
1-0 (Scotland win)
0-1 (Holland win)
2-1 (Scotland win)

Recent Form:
Scotland: 4-0-2
Holland: 5-1

KEY STAT: Scotland have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Scotland’s failure to qualify for the World Cup in Russia called time on Gordon Strachan. He has been replaced on an interim basis by Malky Mackay who has named eight uncapped players in his squad for this friendly against the Dutch at Pittodrie. Holland have plenty of their own problems to contend with after they also failed to make it to Russia in 2018.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
 

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Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:17 PM EASTERN POST
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STARTER ALLOWANCE $55,000.00 PURSE

#4 HONOR WAY
#2 ISOTOPE
#6 SHORT KAKES
#1 JUMP FOR JOY

#4 HONOR WAY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both her 2nd and 5th races back. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche and Trainer Danny Gargan send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of their last 80 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 ISOTOPE, the speed and pace profile leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in four of her last five outings overall, winning three times, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: 3

#11 MAJESTIC BOLD (ML=3/1)
#8 AWESOME DAY (ML=5/1)
#13 BELLISSIMA INDY (ML=6/1)


MAJESTIC BOLD - This filly's last speed rating registered on August 27th is uppermost in last race speed figs. Asmussen moves this filly to the dirt today. Look for an improvement from the most recent race on the turf. AWESOME DAY - When Court and Morse combine forces on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +111. I am keen on that last race on October 14th at Keeneland where she ran third. Look at this pattern of improvement. 17/59/66 are the last three speed figures. BELLISSIMA INDY - Landeros rode this mount for the first time last out and comes right back today. Landeros and Calhoun perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +82 ROI for a jock and conditioner. Finished off the board last out at Churchill Downs, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance. Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. A good sign Calhoun thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 CHANNEL NINE (ML=5/1), #5 SOPHIE'S ANGEL (ML=5/1), #3 SECRET SPENDER (ML=6/1),

CHANNEL NINE - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a short distance race to be worth it at minimal odds in a sprint. When checking today's class rating, she will have to register a better speed fig than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. SOPHIE'S ANGEL - This horse hasn't been around in either of her last couple of races around the track. SECRET SPENDER - Not easy to play any runner in a short distance race if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#11 MAJESTIC BOLD is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
11 with [8,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [8,11,13] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[8,11,13] with [8,11,13] with [6,8,11,13,14] with [6,8,11,13,14] Total Cost: $36
 

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The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TALE OF A SONG 9/5

# 2 DETTIFOSS 7/2

# 6 THIRTY PERCENT 12/1

TALE OF A SONG is my choice. With Cruz getting the mount, watch out for this horse. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Is a solid choice - given the 84 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. DETTIFOSS - Has been running soundly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. THIRTY PERCENT - Is a definite contender - given the 74 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $0.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)


Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 12:45
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
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Horse
Morn
Line

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Odds


Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SWEET LOUISA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SWEET LOUISA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BLISSFUL ROSE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5
SWEET LOUISA
8/5

3/2
3
BLISSFUL ROSE
2/1

9/2
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park West - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: 4

#6 OSCURA (ML=8/1)
#3 SAMURAI'SFIRSTLADY (ML=5/2)


OSCURA - This mare ran well in her last race but just couldn't catch the winner. Note that she was well ahead of the 3rd horse, and looks like a major contender in this field. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Reyes, and this one could bound home the winner. Have to give this mare a good shot. Ran a good race in the last race within the last month. SAMURAI'SFIRSTLADY - Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Gulfstream Park, scored a big turf number. Have to think she can do it again in today's race. Equibase speed figures on the grass point to this racer as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance & surface. This filly's last speed rating is strong enough to score here, I'll bet on her back again in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CRAVE (ML=8/5), #2 REINA LA KELSY (ML=7/2),

CRAVE - October 15th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. REINA LA KELSY - This mount just hasn't looked sharp recently.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #6 OSCURA to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Pass
 

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The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11200 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 SANAVI 9/5

# 1 LITTLE IKE 7/2

# 5 MCHENRY 15/1

I think about SANAVI here. Boasts sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. Posted a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. A solid 88 avg class fig may give this colt a distinct class edge against this group. LITTLE IKE - Has earned formidable Equibase speed figs in dirt route races in the past. With Santiago in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early for this event. MCHENRY - Should best this group here, showing decent figures of late.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)


Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 65 • Purse: $14,850 • Post: 7:07P
FOR MAIDEN, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $15,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
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Line

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Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SHOWIT is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHOWIT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DYLAN DID IT: Today is a sprint and this is the ho rse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AMOUR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own ha lf-mile time in its last race.
6
SHOWIT
9/2

3/1
5
DYLAN DID IT
4/5

9/2
7
AMOUR
6/1

8/1
 

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NFL Week 10

Seahawks (5-3) @ Cardinals (4-4) —
Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) in 17-14 home loss to Redskins, Brown’s first game as their new LT; they outgained Skins 437-244, but committed 16 penalties for 138 yards- they’ve been penalized 358 yards in last three games. Seahawks are 2-2 on road, 1-0 as road favorite- they’ve held six of eight foes to 18 or less points. Arizona is 0-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Dallas by 11. Road teams are 4-0-1 in last five series games; Seattle is 3-0-1 in last four visits here, holding Arizona to 6 points in each of last three- teams tied 6-6 here in an ugly game LY. Six of last seven Arizona games, three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

SEATTLE (5 - 3) at ARIZONA (4 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing at home against Seattle
 

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Seahawks, Cardinals meet on Thursday night

The Seahawks will be trying to bounce back from a bad home less when they take on the Cardinals in Arizona on Thursday.

Seattle was an eight-point home favorite against Washington last week, but the Redskins ended up winning 17-14 thanks to a late drive that resulted in the touchdown that got them to 17. Seattle had taken a 14-10 lead late in the game, but was unable to get off the field for the win. The Seahawks now face a banged up Cardinals team on Thursday, so they have to be thinking that this is a great opportunity for them to get back in the win column. They desperately need that, as they do not want the Rams to start running away with the division now. The Cardinals, meanwhile, can get themselves back into postseason talks with a win on Thursday. Arizona is without both QB Carson Palmer (Arm) and RB David Johnson (Wrist) until something like Week 16 or 17, but the team is still at the .500 mark and was able to earn a road victory over San Francisco last week. If the Cardinals can take this one at home then they’ll be 5-4 with some winnable games remaining on the schedule. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks are 7-0 ATS on Thursday nights under head coach Pete Carroll, but the Cardinals are 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or fewer under head coach Bruce Arians.

The Seahawks are coming off of a rough loss, but they won’t let it get to them too much. They know that this is a winnable game on Thursday, so expect them to be prepared and ready to go here. QB Russell Wilson is a guy that should be in for a pretty big game here, as Seattle has really relied on Wilson as of late. Over the past three weeks, Wilson has thrown for nine touchdowns and only three picks. He did, however, throw two picks against Washington last week and must do a better job of taking care of the football on Thursday. The Cardinals don’t have much offensively right now, so turnovers are really the only things that can put Seattle in a bad position here. It would, however, help Wilson and this passing game if the Seahawks could get anything from their running backs. RBs Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy have not been cutting it for Seattle, as the two of them combined to rush for just 59 yards on 15 carries last game. This is a team that used to thrive with its rushing attack, and Pete Carroll knows that he needs to find somebody he can trust there.

If the Cardinals are going to find a way to beat the Seahawks on Thursday then RB Adrian Peterson must continue to play well for this team. Since being traded to the Cardinals, Peterson has rushed for over 130 yards on two separate occasions. Last week, the 32-year-old rushed for 159 yards in a win over San Francisco. It won’t be as easy to find holes against the Seahawks, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals winning without him rushing for at least 80 here. QB Drew Stanton isn’t one of the worst backups in the league, but he’s also not going to go out there and win this one as a passer. His job is to take care of the ball and move the chains as often as possible. Defensively, the Cardinals will probably need to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Seahawks have a miserable offensive line, so Arizona should have no trouble getting to him. The team just needs to make sure it is ready to capitalize on any of his mistakes.
 

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Seahawks at Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6, 41)

The Seattle Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed field-goal attempts and a season-high 16 penalties. Speaking of ties, the Seahawks return to the site of a rare draw last season when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday.

"Yeah, it's a great challenge, obviously, for Thursday night games. ... I think the biggest thing is the preparation part of it," Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight week and fifth time in six games in Sunday's 17-14 loss to Washington, told reporters. The 28-year-old tossed four scoring strikes in a 34-31 setback against Arizona last season on Christmas Eve after both teams were limited to field goals in a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23, 2016. Adrian Peterson was not a member of the Cardinals for those contests, but the 32-year-old is making up for lost time in a hurry with a career-high 37 rushes for 159 yards in Sunday's 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco. When asked what type of workload is expected for Peterson on the short week, Arizona coach Bruce Arians told reporters, "I would think the same as last week. ... I wouldn't challenge him in any form or fashion by saying, 'You're only going to get 20 (carries)' because I'd probably have to fight him on the sideline."

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as five-point road favorites and by Wednesday that number was bumped up to 6 points. The total hit betting boards at 42.5 and has been bet down to 41.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-2.5) - Cardinals (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -2.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks -
TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), DE Dion Jordan (Probable, Knee), CB Jeremy Lane (Probable, Thigh), G Germain Ifedi (Probable, Finger), DE Michael Bennett (Probable, Heel), G Oday Aboushi (Probable, Shoulder), WR Tyler Lockett (Probable, Shoulder), RB C.J. Prosise (Probable, Ankle), DT Sheldon Richardson (Questionable, Oblique), WR Paul Richardson (Questionable, Groin), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Ankle), S Earl Thomas (Doubtful, Hamstring), DE Marcus Smith (Out, Concussion), RB Eddie Lacy (Out, Groin), G Luke Joeckel (Out, Knee), G Rees Odhiambo (I-R, Hand), FB Tre Madden (I-R, Calf), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (Questionable, Concussion), DE Cliff Avril (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Carson (I-R, Knee), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee), T George Fant (I-R, Knee), CB DeAndre Elliott (I-R, Ankle).

Cardinals - DL Frostee Rucker (Probable, Shin), LB Karlos Dansby (Probable, Finger), S Budda Baker (Probable, Ankle), WR Chad Williams (Questionable, Back), WR Brittan Golden (Questionable, Groin), RB T.J. Logan (Questionable, Wrist), C Daniel Munyer (I-R, Toe), RB David Johnson (I-R, Wrist), QB Carson Palmer (Out, Arm), LS Aaron Brewer (Out, Hand), LB Markus Golden (I-R, Knee), G Mike Iupati (Out, Tricep), CB Ronald Zamort (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U):Blair Walsh had reason to hang his head after missing field-goal attempts of 44, 39 and 49 yards versus the Redskins, but coach Pete Carroll didn't want those misfires to lead to the 27-year-old kicker worrying about his job security. "I'm concerned that he had trouble in this game," Carroll said on his 710 ESPN Seattle radio show. "I don't think that that has to do with anything (on Thursday). We'll find out. We'll see him come on back." Doug Baldwin, who made a career-best 13 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown in the last encounter with Arizona, has 22 receptions on 34 targets for 254 yards and two scores over his last three games.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U): Drew Stanton traditionally has stepped up when called upon, and the 33-year-old did precisely that by extending his winning streak to four starts - albeit spread over nearly three years - by tossing two touchdown passes versus the 49ers. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." J.J. Nelson rolled up 132 receiving yards in his last encounter with Seattle but has made just three catches for 54 yards in his last three overall games.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 12-3 in Cardinals last 15 home games.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Arizona.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road fave Seahawks at a rate of 55 percent and the Under is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers
 

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TNF - Seahawks at Cardinals

Last week's trade for All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown was appropriately greeted with hopeful enthusiasm in Seattle. Although it cost them a 2019 second-rounder and a third and a fifth-round pick in the next draft, players, team officials and fans would've stopped just short of dealing their first-born in exchange for some help up front.

Ever since projected left tackle George Fant was lost in the preseason, the Seahawks have been fighting an uphill battle as they've looked to protect Russell Wilson. Despite wins in five of seven, the offense looked compromised, so being able to plug that hole with an elite option who hadn't even put on a lot of miles this season due to a well-publicized holdout that spilled into the season was more than fortunate.

You would've imagined the improvement would've been immediate given the upgrade, but someone didn't give head coach Pete Caroll and oft-maligned offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell the memo. In fairness, the improvement up front wasn't instant, so Wilson was indeed pressured often, but the game plan was typically conservative outside of a gadget play or wrinkle or two. So it was that the depleted 'Skins managed to hop on their cross-country fresh off a 17-14 comeback win engineered by Kirk Cousins.

Give him all the credit for walking through a door the Seahawks left open via inconsistent offense, but the fact that he solved an Earl Thomas-less defense by driving his team down the field rather quickly through the air in the closing stages means Seattle enters this one with all players feeling the burden of pulling their weight as they open the second half of the season looking up at a Rams team they've already beaten in L.A. and will host on Dec. 17.

It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks handle this road test against the desperate Cardinals in a stadium where they haven't lost since 2012. Last year's game in Glendale produced an ugly 6-6 tie, which begs the question of whether we'll see another low-scoring game where Carroll-led Seattle attempts to stall until the other team makes a mistake. We've seen this group play down to their opponent's level in a 12-9 win over lowly San Francisco, which is what you have to weigh when considering laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a team solely interested in the result, not the style points.

The temptation will certainly be there since the Seahawks are likely coming into this one under the assumption that backup Drew Stanton can't beat them. Although he was effective in his first start in last week's 20-10 road win over the 49ers that Arizona never trailed in, Stanton is a career backup for a reason and doesn't appear to pose much of a threat against one of the NFL's elite defenses. Adrian Peterson has adjusted well to being the focal point of an offense again and brings relatively fresh legs to the table, but he's coming off a 37-carry game on Sunday. The prospect of him having to carry another heavy workload in a short week situation makes my knees hurt in sympathy for his surgically repaired ones.

The 32-year-old Peterson has only carried the ball 30-plus times in consecutive games only once in his career, but he told reporters in Arizona that he felt "fresh and rejuvenated, ready to roll." The plan is for the run game to be Stanton's best friend here, as keepin the ball out of the air appears to be a priority.

Despite losing QB Carson Palmer for the remainder of the season and not expecting All-Pro RB David Johnson back, the Cards have been rejuvenated by Peterson's arrival and a return to health from a Larry Fitzgerald-led receiving corps that's healthier than it has been all season. Arizona begins a stretch of four home games in five outings that will realistically decide whether it factors into the playoff race in an injury-plagued season that will end in Seattle on Dec. 31.

Seattle Seahawks
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win NFC West: 1/3 to 10/11
Odds to win NFC: 7/2 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 12/1

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -160, Under +140)
Odds to win NFC West: 80/1 to 30/1
Odds to win NFC: 150/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 300/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Seattle's loss to Washington, combined with the Rams' dominant effort against the Giants, have made it close to an even-money pick to win the NFC West after opening the regular season a 1-to-3 bet. Before the upset, Westgate had those same odds for them before adjusting. The Cardinals were 3-to-1 to start the season and went from 80-to-1 to 30-to-1 after beating the 49ers. See the chart above to monitor the movement from Week 9 to the latest update for Week 10 released Tuesday.

Seattle was 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 8-to-1 to win the NFC before the season began, so they've been kept in that same vicinity despite the inconsistent start. If they win this game, expect a less lucrative figure entering their Monday night home date with the Falcons on Nov. 20.

As far as this matchup is concerned, Seattle was a 7-point favorite when early numbers were released by Westgate last Tuesday, opened at 6 this week and had dipped to as low 5 at CG Technology before heading back in the 5.5-to-6 range. The total opened at 43 at most spots but had been bet down to 41 as of Wednesday evening as the expectation that both teams utilize a conservative, run-heavy approach intensifies.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu conveyed what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday.

"The wiseguys have faded Seattle regularly this season, for good reason, and they've gone back to the well here for the most part. Currently, we have more than 70 percent of the tickets on the Seahawks, but the money handle favors Arizona 60-40 so the big bets are on the home side," Cooley said. "The under is a popular sharp play as well with 65 percent of the action there."

INJURY CONCERNS

RB Eddie Lacy has been ruled out due to a groin injury, so Thomas Rawls is expected to get the bulk of the work. Due to a short week, there are a lot of players who didn't participate in practices and are therefore considered questionable, but the Seahawks are considering star safety Earl Thomas and DE Marcus Smith doubtful. Other big names like TE Jimmy Graham, WR Paul Richardson, G Rees Odhiambo and DT Sheldon Richardson are also question marks.

The Cardinals are much healthier outside of the aforementioned big names they've lost for the season, which also include LB Markus Golden and G Mike Iupati, but having welcomed back the likes of Tyrell Mathieu, Deone Bucannon, Frostee Rucker and Robert Nkemdiche in recent weeks, the defense is healthier than it has been in weeks.

RECENT MEETINGS (Seattle 5-3-1 SU, 6-4 ATS last nine; OVER 5-4)

12/24/16 Cardinals 34-31 vs. Seahawks (AZ +9, 43.5)
10/23/16 Seahawks 6-6 at Cardinals (SEA +2.5, 43)
1/3/16 Seahawks 36-6 at Cardinals (SEA +6.5, 47)
11/15/15 Cardinals 39-32 at Seahawks (AZ +3, 44.5)
12/21/14 Seahawks 35-6 at Cardinals (SEA -9, 36)
11/23/14 Seahawks 19-3 vs. Cardinals (SEA -7, 41)
12/22/13 Cardinals 17-10 at Seahawks (AZ +9, 42.5)
10/17/13 Seahawks 34-22 at Cardinals (SEA -4.5, 41)
12/9/12 Seahawks 58-0 vs. Cardinals (SEA -10, 36)
 

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BALL ST (2 - 7) at N ILLINOIS (6 - 3) - 11/9/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GA SOUTHERN (0 - 8 ) at APPALACHIAN ST (5 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

N CAROLINA (1 - 8 ) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 5) - 11/9/2017, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BALL STATE @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ball State's last 6 games
Ball State is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ball State
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ball State

NORTH CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH
North Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ APPALACHIAN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games
Appalachian State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Appalachian State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games


StatFox Super Situations

BALL ST at N ILLINOIS
Play Against - Road underdogs (BALL ST) poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored 67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

BALL ST at N ILLINOIS
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (BALL ST) outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season, after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games 196-116 since 1997. ( 62.8% | 68.4 units ) 12-3 this year. ( 80.0% | 8.7 units )
 

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College Football Week 11

Northern Illinois won its last eight games with Ball State, covering four of last five. Cardinals lost last four visits to DeKalb, losing 59-41/48-27 in last two trips here. NIU had 4-game win streak snapped by Toledo LW; Huskies are 3-1 at home, with MAC wins by 21-3 points- they lost 23-20 at home to Boston College. NIU is 0-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Ball State lost its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread)- they gave up 55+ points in four of last five games, with 28 points the closest of those five losses.

Georgia Southern is 0-8 but they’ve got a good, mobile freshman QB and are still competing; they’re 2-2 vs spread as a road underdog, covering at Auburn/Troy. Eagles lost 34-10/31-13 to Appalachian State the last two years. Favorites are 2-1 vs spread in this series. App State is 5-4, needs one more win to be bowl eligible; Mountaineers are 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 20-19 to Wake Forest. Five of last six Ga Southern games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five App State games.

North Carolina lost its last six games, is having a dreadful 1-8 season; they’re 0-2 as road underdogs, getting outscored 92-14 at Ga Tech/Virginia- they did win on road at Old Dominion. Pittsburgh is 4-5, needs two wins to get to a bowl; Panthers beat Duke/Virginia last two weeks, allowing 17-14 points. Pitt lost six of last seven games with UNC, losing last four in row, all by 7 or less points. Tar Heels won last three visits here, by 7-7-3 points. Five of last six UNC games stayed under the total; under is 5-0-1 in last six Panther game
 

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UNC at Pittsburgh

While Thursday’s ACC matchup isn’t going to make a dent on the national scene or even the ACC standings, North Carolina and Pittsburgh have played four consecutive tight games as ACC foes including one of the better games of the season last year.

Two teams in disappointing seasons look for a big late season win in Thursday’s national TV game to start the college football weekend.

Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: At Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 9, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Pittsburgh -9, Over/Under 52½
Last Meeting: 2016, at North Carolina (-7) 37, Pittsburgh 36

Since Pittsburgh joined the ACC in 2013 the matchup with North Carolina has been an entertaining series with four single-score results and an average of more than 63 points scored per game. The past two seasons this Coastal matchup has carried some weight with both teams in the division race as these teams combined to go 24-9 in ACC games in 2015 and 2016, with North Carolina appearing in the ACC championship in the 2015 season. North Carolina sits at 0-6 in ACC play this season while Pittsburgh is just 2-3 as it has been step-back season for both programs.

A North Carolina program that was routinely stocked with NFL talent but seemed to plateau at 7 or 8 wins in the best years in the 2000s finally had a breakthrough season in 2015, going 11-1 in the regular season and giving Clemson a great game in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels fell back to a modestly successful 8-5 campaign last season and in Larry Fedora’s sixth season in Chapel Hill very little has gone right.

The Tar Heels had to replace the #2 pick in the NFL draft at quarterback and it has been a challenge to replace Mitch Trubisky. Former LSU quarterback Brandon Harris was expected to lead the team but after early season struggles, freshman Chazz Surratt has been the team’s main quarterback. Sophomore Nathan Elliott took the bulk of the snaps two weeks ago in the narrow homecoming loss to Miami after Surratt was injured however as it isn’t clear what will happen under center this week.

The Tar Heels were a great rushing team two years ago posting 6.0 yards per rush and still a decent ground team last season. This year’s team has gained just 3.8 yards per carry as the poor quarterback play has deteriorated the potential of the entire offense. Sophomore Jordon Brown leads the team in carries and yards but freshman Michael Carter has been a big play threat with seven touchdowns on 6.0 yards per carry.

Ryan Switzer had 96 catches for the Tar Heels last season as Trubisky’s favorite target but this year’s team lacks a receiver with more than 20 catches. Brown has 24 catches out of the backfield but the young receiving corps has struggled with the lack of consistency at quarterback and the unit has been beset with several injuries including losing four scholarship receivers to season-ending injuries.

North Carolina is surrendering 33.4 points per game on 447 yards per game ranking 104th nationally in scoring defense and 111th in total defense. The Tar Heels have surrendered 205 yards per game rushing this season on 4.6 yards per carry. The secondary has lost two starters to injury as well as it has been a tough-luck season for the North Carolina roster.

North Carolina has also taken on one of the nation’s most difficult schedules playing non-conference games with California and Notre Dame to add to the 1-8 record on the season. From the Atlantic the Tar Heels played Louisville in September and will face NC State in the season finale for a difficult crossover pull.

While North Carolina doesn’t have a bowl game to play for the Tar Heels have an opportunity on a national stage this week and certainly this is a team that can perform at a higher level than the 1-8 record indicates. Five losses have been decided by 12 or fewer points and the 24-19 late October loss to undefeated Miami shows the potential of this group. Despite playing most of the game with an inexperienced third-string quarterback, North Carolina out-gained Miami 428-415 and might have won if not for four turnovers.

Pittsburgh started the season needing overtime to defeat FCS Youngstown State and most of the first half of the season was a struggle with the Panthers going 2-5 in the first seven games. Pittsburgh played Penn State and Oklahoma State in non-conference action for a very difficult start to the season but with wins in the final two games of October the Panthers are 4-5 and still have bowl aspirations.

This looks like a must-win game in the postseason goal as the Panthers will close the regular season with games against the top two ACC Coastal squads, at Virginia Tech next week and closing the season lurking as a potential spoiler hosting undefeated Miami.

The Panthers also had to replace a NFL quarterback with Nathan Peterman drafted by the Bills in the fifth round. Peterman actually led the ACC in quarterback rating last season ahead of Trubiksy and Deshaun Watson and he was a key to the success the Panthers have had in Pat Narduzzi’s first two seasons at Pittsburgh with matching 8-5 campaigns and winning ACC seasons.

Pittsburgh thought they had a quick-fix replacement at quarterback with USC transfer Max Browne. Once the most sought after high school quarterback in the nation, Browne struggled as the USC starter early last season facing great expectations. With Sam Darnold clearly establishing himself he looked for another opportunity and wound up at Pittsburgh. His senior season hasn’t worked out as planned who began to split time with sophomore Ben DiNucci after the 1-2 start to the season and then Browne suffered a season ending injury in early October.

DiNucci’s numbers haven’t been stronger than Browne’s even through a lighter schedule but the Panthers are playing better ball in recent weeks. Pittsburgh also lost top running back James Conner to the NFL and the rushing attack took awhile to develop this season. Moving junior Darrin Hall into a more prominent role has paid dividends as he rushed for 365 yards in the wins over Duke and Virginia with four touchdowns.

Pittsburgh’s defensive numbers are only slightly better than the numbers for North Carolina though allowing 92 points in the losses to Penn State and Oklahoma State skew the numbers a bit. In ACC play Pittsburgh has allowed 25.6 points per game compared to 35.0 points per game allowed by North Carolina. Pittsburgh’s run defense was a strength last season allowing only 3.6 yards per rush despite deficiencies against the pass but this year the Panthers have shown improvement against the pass but are allowing 4.5 yards per rush.

Both teams entered this season appearing to head towards rebuilding seasons and certainly Pittsburgh has had a better run towards that aim heading into the final three weeks. A win this week and an upset in one of the final two games can get the Panthers into a bowl game for a 10th consecutive season. For North Carolina this is an opportunity to avoid a winless ACC season with a tough finale at NC State as the only other opportunity. For two teams caught in the middle of the ACC pecking order in now a wide swath of recruiting territory in a 14-team conference, any positive national TV exposure can help the cause.

Last Season: These teams met in late September in Chapel Hill for an early ACC opener. Both teams were 2-1 with North Carolina losing to Georgia but Beating Illinois and James Madison. Pittsburgh had a marquee win over Penn State but had lost in a shootout with Oklahoma State the previous week. A game that ended with 73 points actually started with a safety and a 50-yard field goal as Pittsburgh led 5-0 at the end of the first quarter. Early in the second half Pittsburgh still had a slight advantage with a 26-16 lead and the Panthers appeared on their way to victory after a fourth quarter field goal made the score 36-23 and the Pittsburgh defense forced a 3-and-out. Pittsburgh had to punt back to the Tar Heels halfway through the final frame and a marginal punt with a strong return shifted momentum back to the Tar Heels. Trubisky converted a big 4th down play with about six minutes remaining and eventually put the Tar Heels in the end zone to close to within six. Conner and Peterman weren’t able to pick up a first down and Trubisky led one of the drives of the season needing 17 plays and three 4th down conversions to eventually score with two seconds remaining for a one-point win.

Historical Trends:

North Carolina has won all four meetings as ACC Coastal foes with last season’s one-point win the only missed cover.

Since 1982 North Carolina is 6-2 S/U and ATS in this series though Pittsburgh won the only postseason meeting with a 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl win.

North Carolina is 11-7 S/U and ATS in road games since 2014 and riding a 15-11-1 ATS run when dogged by 7 or more points going back to 2006.

Pittsburgh is just 5-14-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2013, though splitting the two instances this season.

Since 2013 Pittsburgh is also just 4-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more points though losing S/U just twice in that span
 

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ACC Report - Week 11

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

The forgettable, injury-plagued season is almost over for the Tar Heels. They limp into Thursday's game in the Steel City with a 1-5 ATS mark over their past six outings, and they're 1-7 ATS across the past eight ACC bouts. Pittsburgh has been a little more impressive against the number, going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five overall. However, they're still 8-20 ATS in the past 28 home games and 1-6 ATS in their past seven at home against teams with a losing road mark. The Panthers are nine-point favorites as of Thursday morning
 

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NBA Long Sheet

LA LAKERS (5 - 6) at WASHINGTON (5 - 5) - 11/9/2017, 7:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 391-457 ATS (-111.7 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 106-152 ATS (-61.2 Units) in November games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 95-126 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

______________________________________________

NEW ORLEANS (6 - 5) at TORONTO (6 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 7:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

______________________________________________

CLEVELAND (5 - 6) at HOUSTON (8 - 3) - 11/9/2017, 8:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

______________________________________________

PHILADELPHIA (6 - 4) at SACRAMENTO (2 - 8 ) - 11/9/2017, 10:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

______________________________________________

OKLAHOMA CITY (4 - 6) at DENVER (6 - 5) - 11/9/2017, 10:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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