NCAA (Week 11)

last week 10-4
a long way to go but at least maybe back on the right track


1 unit: 23-18 +3.20
2 unit: 18-21 -10.70

overall: 41-39 -7.50

Tuesday:

#101 Akron/Miami Ohio under 52 -110 (1)
#104 Buffalo -7 -120 (1)

Akron at 5-4 and 1-8 ats on the O/U and 1-4 ats O/U away (like it)
Miami O at 3-6 and 4-5 ats on the O/U and 1-3 ats o/u at home (okay)

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Akron's last 9 games when playing Miami-Ohio. (like it a lot)

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami-OH (like it)

Miami Ohio QB Rayland listed as ? with lower body injury. So I don't know if he's playing or not, but if he does play how effective will he be and for how long can he last. I don't know but something that I like on my side when playing the under.

Akron scoring 22.6 and giving up 25 ppg = 47 ppg
Miami O scoring 24.2 giving up 26.7 ppg = 50.9 ppg

Round to 49 so looks like a 3 point edge on their games total.

Anyway, worth a (1) for me on a Tuesday night.

Bowling Green at Buffalo -7

BG at 2-7 straight up and 2-7 ATS (like it)
Buff at 3-6 straight up and 7-2 ATS and 4-0 ats at home (love it)

Reasons not to play the game are BG 8-2 straight up and 5-0 last 5 in this series. But, Bowling Green had a pretty good team the past 4 years and Buff was struggling. The tide has turned somewhat as Buff def is playing really well and at home this year they have been really good.
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home (like it)

BG rushing Def allowing 252 per game and this is where I think Buff has the advantage.

Playing Buff for a (1)

Thanks United

Thursday

#116 App St -17 -120 (1)

Georgia S at 0-8 straight up and 2-5-1 ATS and 1-3 ats on the road.
App St at 5-4 straight up and 2-7 ATS but are 2-2 ats at home.

I know this is a tough game to play. I do see advantages for App St to cover this spread at home.

They are up against a team that is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games.

GS scoring 17.6 ppg and giving up 38.3 ppg
App scoring 31.1 ppg giving up 25.8 ppg

I get a diff around 27 so of course I like it. Line could be higher but App St not exactly killing it on covering spreads.
Appalachian State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games (scary)
Appalachian State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home (advantage? always giving to many in conf play because their used to being one of the best)

What I do like is App St has won the last two years in a row by scores of 34-10 and 31-13.

I like playing against teams that give up over 38 ppg especially when their playing a team that can score a lot.
GS also coming off a tough rivalry game in which they lost to Georgia St by 4 points.

Game is worth a shot for me but only a (1)

BOL U! Let's get that Buffalo money buddy

bol

Tbird, Stick, lovetobet, good luck all week

Friday

#122 Washington/Stanford under 52 -110 (2)

Wash at 8-1 and 3-6 on the O/U and 0-4 on the O/U on the road. (road game)
Stanford at 6-3 and 3-6 on the O/U and 1-2 on the O/U at home.

Wash scoring 38.5 ppg and giving up 11.1 ppg, (stingy D allowing only 92.3 rushing)
Stanford scoring 33.6 giving up 21.3 ppg

Last 3 in the series have totaled 50, 45, and 33 points.
This Wash D has been very good. Stanford loves to run the ball. Clock hopefully will keep moving in this one.

Wash D 2nd in fewest points allowed.
Wash D 1st in total yards at 242.1.
Wash D 6th in rushing yards and 1st in allowing only 2.6 per carry.
Wash D has 28 sacks.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Stanford
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Stanford

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 5 games

Under it is and I like it for a (2)


Working on Sat games.

I will work on my reasons tomorrow. Notes are a mess right now.
Nice start on the Tuesday games hitting both of them.

Tuesday:

#101 Akron/Miami Ohio under 52 -110 (1) W
#104 Buffalo -7 -120 (1) W

Thursday

#116 App St -17 -120 (1)

Friday

#122 Washington/Stanford under 52 -110 (2)

Saturday

#130 Georgia T +3 -110 (1)
#130 VT/GT under 50 -110 (1)
#160 Oklahoma -6 1/2 -110 (1)
#172 Purdue/NW under 47 -110 (1)
#178 Bama/Miss St under 51 -110 (1)
#185 Iowa +11 1/2 -110 (1)
#185 Iowa/Wiscy under 46 -110 (1)
#189 Tennessee +11 -110 (1)
#196 Kentucky/Vandy under 53 -110 (1)

#125 Michigan -17 -110 (2)
#165 Notre Dame -2 1/2 -120 (2)
#187 Georgia -2 1/2 -115 (2)
#216 Arizona -22 -110 (2)

Good calls united

Thanks nice work

nice work. keep 'em coming

Michigan -17 @ Maryland (2)

Michigan at 7-2 straight up and 3-5-1 ats and 2-1 ats on the road.
Maryland at 4-5 straight up and 4-5 ats and 2-2 ats at home.

Michigan scoring 27.1ppg and giving up 17.1 ppg
Maryland scoring 29.8 ppg and giving up 36.3 ppg

A difference of around 17 home worth 3 so line is higher. It's probably higher due to Michigan being a more popular betting team. Also, Maryland QB Max Borten Schlager was injured last game early in the 4th. He's going to be a game time decision according to his coach. He is the 3rd qb already to be injured for Maryland this year.

SO if he plays how healthy, and will he last with Michigan coming at him, and how good is the 4th string qb all remains to be seen.

What I do know is Maryland has lost to the top teams in the big 10 (Ohio St by 38) (Wiscy by 25) and even (NW by 16). They will be facing a pretty good D in Michigan with the less than 100% QB if he plays.

Michigan can't afford any slip ups now and I look for them to come out strong.
Siince their loss to Penn St they have won 2 straight by margins of 21 and 23 points.

Michigan won last year 59-3 at Mich and the year before 28-0 at Maryland. Now this Maryland offense has been putting some points up on the board but they were putting up last year.

Playing Mich on the road and giving up 17 may be crazy, but I think they can get the cover.


Notre Dame -2 1/2 @ Miami (2)

ND at 8-1 straight up and 7-2 ats and 3-0 ats on the road. (nice)
MF at 8-0 straight up and 4-4 ats and 2-3 ats at home

ND scoring 41.3 ppg giving up 18.4 ppg
MF scoring 31.5 ppg giving up 17.6 ppg

Diff of 9 home worth at least 3-4 so line could be 5-6 points.
A lot of people think the line is way out of whack! It isn't! You can't give a undefeated team at home to many points in a game that could determine who makes the playoffs. Throw in the game being at night time in you know what will be a sell out and the line does make sense. Throw in a ND qb who will be playing with a injury o his other arm and a top running back who is probably one good hit to the head away from having to come out of the game because of the concussion protocol and this line is right.

So why Notre Dame for a (2) ?

Yes, MF is undefeated and beat Florida St 3-5, and beat VT last week (they got no respect last week and put it to VT). So they are getting some respect this game.

Notre Dame has just been so impressive this season in their wins and have played the tougher schedule. I'm sure the WF game has brought up questions about the D. Hey, they got a big, big lead, and then coasted, the dogs weren't hungry anymore, and the offense sat out Wimbush the 4th quarter. And believe me, I was pissed about losing that cover, but I do understand the let down and the look ahead to this MF game and not pouring it on WF. Which is why I'm taking ND in this one. They were looking ahead! They know this is the BIG game to staying in the top 4 and maybe evening advancing up higher. They are much more disciplined and used to everyone coming at them.

And MF will be ready. They only lost last year at ND by 3 points.

Yes, this is a big chance I'm taking on this game, and I would be lying if I said I wasn't a ND fan. But those of you that know me, know that I've bet against the Irish many times in the past.


Georgia -2 1/2 @ Auburn (2)

Georgia at 9-0 straight up and 6-3 ats and 4-0 ats on the road.
Auburn at 7-2 straight up and 3-5-1 ats and 1-3 ats at home

Georgia scoring 36.5 ppg and giving up 11.6 ppg
Auburn scoring 36.8 ppg and giving up 16.8 ppg

Diff of 5 in favor of Georgia and Auburn worth 3-4 at home, line is close, maybe a 1-2 high.

This will be another dandy matchup this Sat in college football.

Auburn rushing for 236 ypg and giving up 126 rushing yards per game
Georgia rushing at 279 ypg and giving up 84 rushing yards a game.

So Georgia has the edge on the ground.
Auburn has the advantage through the air.

Georgia is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ats last 10 in this series. (like it)
Georgia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Auburn (like it)

I just like the way Georgia has gone about things this season. Their last 5 conf games they have won by margins of 14, 35, 31, and 41 points.

Auburn also has some impressive spreads, but they have been beaten twice already.

Tough to play the road team but the spread is small and Georgia has a hell of a lot riding on this game.

My money is on Georgia for a (2)



Oregon St @ Arizona -22 (2)

Oregon St at 1-8 straight up and 3-6 ats and 1-3 ats on the road
Arizona at 6-3 straight up and 5-4 ats and 3-2 ats at home.

Oregon St scoring 20.6 ppg and giving up 39.7 ppg (almost 40 ppg) (like it)
Zona scoring 43.8 ppg giving up 32.3 ppg (scoring almost 44 a game) (like it)

A differential of around 30 and factor home worth 3-4, line could be much higher.
It really all depends on how bad Zona wants to pour it on especially with Oregon on deck.

Oregon St has 10 players ? for Sat game. That's a lot for a team that has already lost its starting QB and have beem taking a beating in most of their games this year.

Oreg St has controlled this series going 7-3 straight up and 7-3 ats last 10 (hoping Zona takes out a lot of frustration in this one) Zona got hammered last year at Oreg St 42-17 (coach would stress this and it would definitely be on my mind if I was a player or coach)

Arizona is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games (I'm going against my norm)

Zona has put up 35, 58, 45, and 47 points in their last 4 games. (love it)
No telling how many they put up at home against a team that is giving up 40 a game and a team that they owe big time.

Zona for a (2)

U, I dub thee BigMACAttack, LOL. Nice night last night!

~T~

Good luck tonight....

Friday (this total should read under 50, not 52, 52 was the MAC game, my error when reading notes)

#122 Washington/Stanford under 52 -110 (2)

Wash at 8-1 and 3-6 on the O/U and 0-4 on the O/U on the road. (road game)
Stanford at 6-3 and 3-6 on the O/U and 1-2 on the O/U at home.

Wash scoring 38.5 ppg and giving up 11.1 ppg, (stingy D allowing only 92.3 rushing)
Stanford scoring 33.6 giving up 21.3 ppg

Last 3 in the series have totaled 50, 45, and 33 points.
This Wash D has been very good. Stanford loves to run the ball. Clock hopefully will keep moving in this one.

Wash D 2nd in fewest points allowed.
Wash D 1st in total yards at 242.1.
Wash D 6th in rushing yards and 1st in allowing only 2.6 per carry.
Wash D has 28 sacks.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Stanford
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Stanford

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 5 games

Under it is and I like it for a (2)

United.........nicely done on Tues.........BOL with all your action this weekend.........indy

United said:

Thursday

#116 App St -17 -120 (1)

Georgia S at 0-8 straight up and 2-5-1 ATS and 1-3 ats on the road.
App St at 5-4 straight up and 2-7 ATS but are 2-2 ats at home.

I know this is a tough game to play. I do see advantages for App St to cover this spread at home.

They are up against a team that is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games.

GS scoring 17.6 ppg and giving up 38.3 ppg
App scoring 31.1 ppg giving up 25.8 ppg

I get a diff around 27 so of course I like it. Line could be higher but App St not exactly killing it on covering spreads.
Appalachian State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games (scary)
Appalachian State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home (advantage? always giving to many in conf play because their used to being one of the best)

What I do like is App St has won the last two years in a row by scores of 34-10 and 31-13.

I like playing against teams that give up over 38 ppg especially when their playing a team that can score a lot.
GS also coming off a tough rivalry game in which they lost to Georgia St by 4 points.

Game is worth a shot for me but only a (1)

Click to expand...

Gonna be the first "cold" game in Boone tonight U so I like your thinking on the 1 unit play, cold hands first go around can be damn unpredictable. GL!!!

~T~

thanks T, Indy, xs, GF, and light

VT @ GT +3 (1) and under 50 (1)

VT at 7-2 straight up and 5-4 ats and 1-2 ats on the road
GT at 4-4 straight up and 6-1-1 ats and 5-0 ats at home (like it)

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games (like it)
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 6 games (like it)

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Virginia Tech's last 20 games on the road (road)
Virginia Tech is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Georgia Tech (like it)
Georgia Tech is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games (spread covering team so far)
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia Tech's last 5 games when playing VT

All I know is that the series is generally close to the vest with the average score the last 10 games 23.9 to 20 in favor of VT,
The over/under is 1-9 the last 10 games in this series. (I'm playing it)


TCU @ Oklahoma -6 1/2 (1)

TCU at 8-1 straight up and 6-3 ats and 3-1 ats on the road (nice covering team)
Oklahoma at 8-1 straight up and 5-4 ats and 3-1 ats at home

Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home (home)

TCU only giving up 13.8 ppg but now they are on the road and Oklahoma has been even better at home and scoring 45 ppg. They are going to have to keep up with Mayfield and this offense to stay in the game.

Oklahoma won in a slugfest last year 52-46 at TCU.
Oklahoma is definitely in the hunt to get in that top 4. Who knows if Notre Dame or may be Georgia could go down this week then the spot is ripe for the picking.

Honestly, if TCU could only put up 24 on Texas and 14 on Iowa St, I just don't see how they can keep pace in this one. That D id hold both Texas and Iowa St to just 7 points and that's why they won the low scoring affairs, but I see know way of slowing the Sooners down in this one.


Purdue @ NW under 47 (1)

Purdue at 4-5 straight up and 6-3 ats and 2-7 on the O/U and 0-3 ats O/U away
NW at 6-3 straight up and 6-3 ats and 1-3-1 o/u at home

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Purdue's last 7 games (like it)

Purdue scoring 24.6 ppg and giving up 18.8 ppg for 43.4
NW scoring 28.0 and giving up 24.2 ppg for 52.4

I'm getting 47.9 so total right on

Liking the under because Purdue has a different qb as Blough is out for the season.

The over/under is 3-7 last 10 in this series. (like it)
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Purdue's last 7 games (they run it a lot more than the olden days

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Purdue's last 6 games on the road (road again)

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northwestern's last 6 games when playing at home against Purdue (home)


Alabama @ Miss St under 51

Alabama at 9-0 straight up and 4-5 ats and 1-1-1 o/U on the road
Miss St at 7-2 straight up and 6-3 ats and 2-7 on the O/U and 0-5 O/U at home

Bama scoring 40.8 ppg and giving up 9.7 ppg for a total of 50.5
Miss St scoring 33.8 ppg and giving up 18.0 ppg for a total of 51.8

I'm getting around 51 points, so another line left to the heads up matchups

When I see a two defense giving up only 9.7 and 18 ppg the under is always on my mind.

And seeing how Miss St is 2-7 and 0-5 on the O/U at home this was a auto play for me.

In the last 10 games in this series the O/U is 1-8 and a push (love it)
The average score the last 10 games is Bama 29.4 to Miss ST 8.7 (wow)

Now I'm wondering why I didn't play it for a (2) (only because Bama D can score quickly and I hope the LSU game doesn't have any affects on this game.


Iowa +11 1/2 (1) @ Wiscy and under 46 (1)

Iowa at 6-3 straight up and 5-3-1 ats and 3-6 on the o/u and 1-2 away o/u
Wiscy at 9-0 strightup and 5-4 ats and 2-3 ats at home

Iowa scoring at 28.3 ppg and giving up 18.1 ppg for a total of 46.4
Wiscy scoring at 36.1 ppg and giving up 13.3 for a total of 49.4

I'm getting 47.9 so total close to vest.
I;m getting 13 point diff +3-4 for Wiscy at home line could be 16-17

But it's not, probably due to Iowa knocking off Ohio ST so convincingly and Wiscy has Michigan on deck.

The last 10 games in this series the average score is Iowa 19.4 to Wiscy 18.5. Now that is low scoring and very close games.

Only two times in the 10 games the margin went over 10. That's why you can't give them 17 points. These two teams usually battle it out in the trenches.

Iowa is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Wisconsin (like it)
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa's last 6 games when playing Wisconsin(like it)

playing Iowa and the under both at a (1)



Tenn +11 (1) at Missouri

Tenn at 4-5 straight up and 3-6 ats and 2-2 ats on the road
Missouri at 4-5 straight up and 5-4 ats and 2-4 ats at home


Tenn scoring 20.7 ppg and giving up 25.2 ppg
Missouri scoring 36.5 ppg and giving up 33.5 ppg

Getting a diff of 8 and Missouri worth 3 at home so line is spot on.

I see Tenn QB is probable for Sat.
I see Tenn lit them up last year 63-37. Missouri will do the same thing if they have the opportunity. With both teams at 4-5 someone has to get to 500. I see maximum effort by both teams to get there.

I'm not sure how good this Missouri offense is. They butchered a Florida team that has just had everything possible happen to them this year.

Last 3 games they scored:

Florida 45
UCONN 52
Idaho 68

No wonder they are dd fav's in this game. Probably a really dumb bet taking Tenn, but I think they hang around in this one or I wouldn't have played the game.



Kentucky @ Vandy under 53 (1)

Kentucky at 6-3 and 2-7 ats and 4-5 on the o/u and 0-3 o/u on the road
Vandy at 4-5 and 3-5-1 ats and 5-4 o/u and 2-3 o/u at home

Kentucky scoring 26.1 ppg and giving up 26.2 ppg for a total of 52.3
Vandy scoring 23.8 ppg giving up 29.2 ppg for a total of 53

I'm getting a diff of 52 1/2 line is spot on.

The over/under is 3-7 last 10 games in this series
Average score 22.5 to 18.1 (like it)

The last 7 games the total points scored have been:

33
38
24
28
40
46

These are the kind of things that I like to play on.
Now they may beat the total in this game but so be it!

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kentucky's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 5 games when playing at home against Kentucky


This most likely will be it for me as college hoops start up tomorrow and I will not have the time to write up like this. Besides I don't think anyone gives a dam anyway. So probably just wasting my time.

Good luck everyone

Tuesday:

#101 Akron/Miami Ohio under 52 -110 (1) W
#104 Buffalo -7 -120 (1) W

Thursday

#116 App St -17 -120 (1) W

Friday

#122 Washington/Stanford under 50 -110 (2)

Saturday

#130 Georgia T +3 -110 (1)
#130 VT/GT under 50 -110 (1)
#160 Oklahoma -6 1/2 -110 (1)
#172 Purdue/NW under 47 -110 (1)
#178 Bama/Miss St under 51 -110 (1)
#185 Iowa +11 1/2 -110 (1)
#185 Iowa/Wiscy under 46 -110 (1)
#189 Tennessee +11 -110 (1)
#196 Kentucky/Vandy under 53 -110 (1)

#125 Michigan -17 -110 (2)
#165 Notre Dame -2 1/2 -120 (2)
#187 Georgia -2 1/2 -115 (2)
#216 Arizona -22 -110 (2)

Thanks for app st play!!

Always enjoy your thread Coach!

That Au / Ga game hard to figure out. I beieve come down to coaching and if Gus reverts back to a moronic high school coach the Saban taught coach will come out victorious

Do or die for AU