Best bets for Seattle-Arizona
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/9/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent on Seattle
Steele: The Seahawks have yet to play a complete game this season. They came close last week with a 437-244 yardage edge over a Washington Redskins team missing three starting offensive linemen, but they lost the game partially due to three missed field goals in the first half. The Cardinals sit at 4-3 and can move into a tie for second in the division with a win, but their four wins have been versus the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- three teams that combine for a record of 5-21. In Arizona's four losses, it has been outscored by 21 points per game.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Sharp: This meeting highlights a difference in offensive style. Over the past four weeks, the Seahawks have passed on 63 percent of their offensive plays, the second most in the NFL. With Adrian Peterson in the fold and no Carson Palmer, the Cardinals have gone aerial just 52 percent of the time, the sixth least in the NFL. The Cards are defensively-balanced, ranking second in pass success rate allowed and third in rushing success rate allowed, although adjusting based on efficiency of opponents drops these rankings some. The Seahawks are much better defending the pass than the run, but they are now without Earl Thomas over the top. This defense has a history of falling apart without Thomas patrolling the secondary
This game comes down to whether the Cardinals can keep Russell Wilson in the pocket and prevent him from making big plays in the pass game, and whether the Seahawks can stop the Cardinals' run game. Arizona cannot afford to make any mistakes if it is to pull off the upset at home.
Pick: Pass
Rynning: The Seahawks can be a maddening team. This was firmly on display in last week's 17-14 loss to the Washington Redskins. The Seahawks outgained Washington by almost 200 yards, while garnering a 5.8-4.1 yards-per-play advantage, yet couldn't manage a win. Meanwhile, the Cardinals slogged through a victory last week against the depleted and winless 49ers team. It's difficult to give the Cardinals much credit with the schedule of teams they have beaten. The Seattle defense should control the Cardinals' diminished offensive unit, keying a comfortable victory.
ATS pick: Seattle
Clay ATS pick and prediction: Arizona (Seattle 24, Arizona 18)
Parolin's prop bets
68.5 rushing yards by Adrian Peterson (O/U -110)
Talk about a resurgence. Peterson has 104.7 rush yards per game in his three games with the Cardinals, along with twice as many rushing touchdowns as the rest of the team combined for over the rest of the season. There isn't a ton of ambiguity about how Peterson gains his yards. His snaps with the Cardinals have split out to be 81-45 in favor of running plays, and 93 percent of his rushing yards have come from between the tackles. No stretch runs, not much passing impact (three catches for 20 yards) -- just straight downhill running.
Seattle had no trouble with downhill rushers over the previous three seasons, allowing a league-best 3.4 yards per rush inside the tackles. However, this year has been different, with Seattle ranking 21st in yards per interior rush (4.15) and a troubling 2.5 yards before contact per rush, the eighth-highest mark in the league. A game-by-game look at Seattle reinforces an over on rushing yards: Teams below 70 rush yards inside the tackles against Seattle are the Green Bay Packers, New York Giants and Redskins (all outside the top 20 in interior rushing), while the 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Colts, Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans (average rank of 10.2) all went over 70 rush yards on inside rushes. Peterson is getting such a substantial share of the rushes for Arizona that 70 should be in play.
Pick: Over
66.5 receiving yards by Doug Baldwin (O/U -110)
As always, the question for those facing the Cardinals' defense is "who gets to avoid Patrick Peterson?" The answer is generally "whoever is in the slot." Two of the three best performances by receivers against the Cardinals this season came from players who spent almost the entire game in the slot (Golden Tate at 107 yards and Nelson Agholor at 93). Peterson has played 457 of his 515 snaps as a perimeter cornerback this season, with a total of 46 snaps through eight games in the slot. Only Tate has more slot targets than Doug Baldwin (44), and Baldwin's 29 receptions from the slot trail only Tate and Larry Fitzgerald. Baldwin has plenty of experience against the Cardinals, and he has produced in those outings.
He has 69 or more yards in four of his last five games against Arizona dating back to Week 16 of 2014 and has at least five catches in all five games. He's averaging 5.4 catches for 68.8 yards from the slot alone in those games, putting him over the number without a single perimeter route run. Russell Wilson is averaging an NFL-best 324.8 pass yards per game, 20 yards ahead of any other quarterback, and his top wide receiver will get enough Peterson-free looks to reach 67 yards.
Pick: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
11/9/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent on Seattle
Steele: The Seahawks have yet to play a complete game this season. They came close last week with a 437-244 yardage edge over a Washington Redskins team missing three starting offensive linemen, but they lost the game partially due to three missed field goals in the first half. The Cardinals sit at 4-3 and can move into a tie for second in the division with a win, but their four wins have been versus the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- three teams that combine for a record of 5-21. In Arizona's four losses, it has been outscored by 21 points per game.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Sharp: This meeting highlights a difference in offensive style. Over the past four weeks, the Seahawks have passed on 63 percent of their offensive plays, the second most in the NFL. With Adrian Peterson in the fold and no Carson Palmer, the Cardinals have gone aerial just 52 percent of the time, the sixth least in the NFL. The Cards are defensively-balanced, ranking second in pass success rate allowed and third in rushing success rate allowed, although adjusting based on efficiency of opponents drops these rankings some. The Seahawks are much better defending the pass than the run, but they are now without Earl Thomas over the top. This defense has a history of falling apart without Thomas patrolling the secondary
This game comes down to whether the Cardinals can keep Russell Wilson in the pocket and prevent him from making big plays in the pass game, and whether the Seahawks can stop the Cardinals' run game. Arizona cannot afford to make any mistakes if it is to pull off the upset at home.
Pick: Pass
Rynning: The Seahawks can be a maddening team. This was firmly on display in last week's 17-14 loss to the Washington Redskins. The Seahawks outgained Washington by almost 200 yards, while garnering a 5.8-4.1 yards-per-play advantage, yet couldn't manage a win. Meanwhile, the Cardinals slogged through a victory last week against the depleted and winless 49ers team. It's difficult to give the Cardinals much credit with the schedule of teams they have beaten. The Seattle defense should control the Cardinals' diminished offensive unit, keying a comfortable victory.
ATS pick: Seattle
Clay ATS pick and prediction: Arizona (Seattle 24, Arizona 18)
Parolin's prop bets
68.5 rushing yards by Adrian Peterson (O/U -110)
Talk about a resurgence. Peterson has 104.7 rush yards per game in his three games with the Cardinals, along with twice as many rushing touchdowns as the rest of the team combined for over the rest of the season. There isn't a ton of ambiguity about how Peterson gains his yards. His snaps with the Cardinals have split out to be 81-45 in favor of running plays, and 93 percent of his rushing yards have come from between the tackles. No stretch runs, not much passing impact (three catches for 20 yards) -- just straight downhill running.
Seattle had no trouble with downhill rushers over the previous three seasons, allowing a league-best 3.4 yards per rush inside the tackles. However, this year has been different, with Seattle ranking 21st in yards per interior rush (4.15) and a troubling 2.5 yards before contact per rush, the eighth-highest mark in the league. A game-by-game look at Seattle reinforces an over on rushing yards: Teams below 70 rush yards inside the tackles against Seattle are the Green Bay Packers, New York Giants and Redskins (all outside the top 20 in interior rushing), while the 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Colts, Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans (average rank of 10.2) all went over 70 rush yards on inside rushes. Peterson is getting such a substantial share of the rushes for Arizona that 70 should be in play.
Pick: Over
66.5 receiving yards by Doug Baldwin (O/U -110)
As always, the question for those facing the Cardinals' defense is "who gets to avoid Patrick Peterson?" The answer is generally "whoever is in the slot." Two of the three best performances by receivers against the Cardinals this season came from players who spent almost the entire game in the slot (Golden Tate at 107 yards and Nelson Agholor at 93). Peterson has played 457 of his 515 snaps as a perimeter cornerback this season, with a total of 46 snaps through eight games in the slot. Only Tate has more slot targets than Doug Baldwin (44), and Baldwin's 29 receptions from the slot trail only Tate and Larry Fitzgerald. Baldwin has plenty of experience against the Cardinals, and he has produced in those outings.
He has 69 or more yards in four of his last five games against Arizona dating back to Week 16 of 2014 and has at least five catches in all five games. He's averaging 5.4 catches for 68.8 yards from the slot alone in those games, putting him over the number without a single perimeter route run. Russell Wilson is averaging an NFL-best 324.8 pass yards per game, 20 yards ahead of any other quarterback, and his top wide receiver will get enough Peterson-free looks to reach 67 yards.
Pick: Over
