Week 11: Let's Try This Again

After last week's debacle, I doubt there are many looking for my picks, but if you are, I'm still at it. Needed a few days to just get away from it. Got beat up bad on most of the larger plays, and went 7-2 on the smaller ones. Maybe I can get hot not over-thinking it. Then again, I've had some really poor bets on the 1*s that were not advisable even by me.

The Ducks: Herbert didn't play, although the line and the latest news indicated he would. I guess Taggart didn't want to risk him getting beat up by the Huskies D???? With him playing, Oregon is a totally different team and +21 was a good play. Without him, they have NO passing game. 3rd and 7 is going to be run…..

YTD: 83-65, -10.95 units(we'll just say -1) It's a miracle I only lost 7.3 units last week considering losing UCF, Nevada and Oregon plays.


Should know better than to bet the MAC, but what the hell.

1* NIU -31 Never take a favorite at a number like this, but Ball State is down to their 4th string QB, who is a very raw freshman. NIU easily has the best D in the MAC, and needs this game. I think we'll see points here strictly on turnovers, field position and overly conservative Ball State play-calling. Besides that, Ball State is terrible stopping the run and is playing a lot of freshman. The danger is Ball State scoring on a fluke or two. When you're giving up 31, you risk back doors, fluke scores and NIU letting up 2nd half.

Fred - I always look for your plays and enjoy reading your write-ups as well. Most ppl just post games, but i enjoy the reasoning behind it, so thank you for that (win or lose).

You're due for a run. Good luck this week!

:toast:

Skeeter123 said:

Fred - I always look for your plays and enjoy reading your write-ups as well. Most ppl just post games, but i enjoy the reasoning behind it, so thank you for that (win or lose).

You're due for a run. Good luck this week!

:toast:

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Thanks Skeeter. Overdue for a good run.

4* Washington -6 I "get" the red flags here. Stanford at home... Bryce Love... Washington lost to ASU, Stanford beat them…..Washington's easy schedule. But there's enough to offset all that that makes UW -6 a good play. First off, I can't see this line getting any better than this, if you like the Huskies. Also:

* Stanford hasn't really played like a top 20 type team since the 2nd game of last season when they beat USC, and that was when Max Browne QB'ed the Trojans. In fact, you could argue that Stanford hasn't beaten a team with a good offense in 2 years. UW and WSU crushed them last year, WSU beat them last week, USC whipped them earlier this year, and so on… Part of the premise of this play is that Stanford has been living on past reputation and has not beaten a team of UW's caliber since that Max Browne USC team.
* Stanford's schedule has also been fairly easy this year. 3 losses, a win over Rice, a squeaker over Oregon St. that they should have lost. Bryce Love was spectacular in 3-4 games giving them wins over ASU, Utah, UCLA..and that gets me to my next point.
* This is not a good matchup for this Stanford offense. If KJ Costello has a lights-out game, then I lose. But that's not likely. UW's defense is really brutally tough in the middle of the DL, and in its linebackers. This D doesn't get a bunch of sacks, or TFLs, but they are excellent at keeping to their assignments, limiting big plays, and are 3rd in the nation in YPC and 5th in defensive efficiency(which includes SOS and garbage time). I think they hold Love to his lowest run total of the year, although he'll likely break off 1-2 big ones. I think this is where UW wins this game, on their D vs. the Stanford offense.
* Stanford fans know this is true. That their OL and DL just do not dominate anymore. 3rd and 3 used to be automatic for the O. They cannot physically dominate opponents, and David Shaw has refused to adjust to this, and in fact has stubbornly refused to break out of his ultra-conservative game-planning altogether. That includes in-game adjustments too. The QB play is bottom of the PAC 12 along with the Beavs. Without Love getting 180+ yards, or something like that, this offense is awful. I think UW's D limits Love enough to make Costello a key player.
* Chris Petersen is an excellent coach, and I think he'll have his team ready. He will have to allow Jake Browning to establish the passing game to go with UW's excellent run game. If Petersen gets conservative, UW is in trouble. But I doubt that happens. UW also has an extra weapon, Salvon Ahmed.
* Don't be fooled by Stanford's close loss last week. They had 198 yards of offense to Wazzu's 430. They scored on a long run by Love, who otherwise was held to 3.4 ypc….a pick 6, and one other 60 yard drive.
* Another premise of this play: If Stanford had lost to OSU(they should have), and the Huskies had squeaked out a win over ASU(easily could have), this line would be about 10. That's about where it should be. Stanford lost 2 at home last year, and had two other ATS losses at home. The Huskies will have a large contingent of fans at this game, and the Trees are not invincible at home. I can see Stanford covering, barely, but there is also a better than even chance UW wins going away.

Bet these last night so the lines may have changed. The lines seem to really change later Friday.

7* LSU -17 Of all the games this week where the spread isn't ridiculous(28+, although NIU covered at 31), this feels the most like an ass kicking. Take out LSU's loss to Troy, and they have had a reasonably good season. The unrealistic expectations of some fans and media folks of them going to the playoffs never matched with the reality of this team going into the season. Last week, they played Alabama on the road almost even. The Bama punter was incredible and field position was LSU's nemesis all game. They also took care of a very good Auburn team. LSU needs a win right here, and the Hogs(IMO) are worse off than even many of us CFB observers think. The OL is unable to pass block or run block well. The DL is only slightly better. Arkansas has had some injuries that they don't have the depth to replenish. You could say LSU, coming off their Alabama game, not a good play. But LSU pounded Arkansas last year after their Alabama game. I think the motivation is there. LSU will dominate the time of possession with their running game, and with nothing to lose, allow Etling to throw. He is just a game manager type QB, but a pretty good one and doesn't turn the ball over much. Arkansas' struggle to beat Coastal Carolina was not an "off" game, but an indication of how bad this team is.

7* Notre Dame-3 This is just a game I'm trying not to over think. Last week, many bettors jumped on VT, thinking Miami looks very beatable. But really, VT was overrated a bit, and Miami has the kind of team that can rise to the occasion against very good competition. This week, I think they a play a different kind of foe…after a big win vs. a conference rival. Notre Dame reminds of other pro and college teams of the past. Simple, not flashy. Maybe the best OL in CFB, and an underrated defensive front. Great running game, a QB not known for his passing, but gets it done when it counts. With an offense that runs this well, and a defense that is better than any Miami has faced, I think ND wins here. I also think the loss of RB Mark Walton was a big loss for a team trying to stay undefeated. Notre Dame pulled Wimbush and Adams last week in a game that ND had big leads throughout, but they are fine. Also, don't be fooled by Wake scoring 37 last week. ND looked like they were pulling on the horses for the whole 4th quarter. Remember more those stretches in the NC State game, the USC game, at Michigan State…and how they matched up evenly with #1 Georgia….this team can dominate when they are playing highly motivated. Miami has enough flaws to have some really bad stretches Saturday. ND's running game reminds me of Alabama at their best.

o fred said:

7* Notre Dame-3 This is just a game I'm trying not to over think. Last week, many bettors jumped on VT, thinking Miami looks very beatable. But really, VT was overrated a bit, and Miami has the kind of team that can rise to the occasion against very good competition. This week, I think they a play a different kind of foe…after a big win vs. a conference rival. Notre Dame reminds of other pro and college teams of the past. Simple, not flashy. Maybe the best OL in CFB, and an underrated defensive front. Great running game, a QB not known for his passing, but gets it done when it counts. With an offense that runs this well, and a defense that is better than any Miami has faced, I think ND wins here. I also think the loss of RB Mark Walton was a big loss for a team trying to stay undefeated. Notre Dame pulled Wimbush and Adams last week in a game that ND had big leads throughout, but they are fine. Also, don't be fooled by Wake scoring 37 last week. ND looked like they were pulling on the horses for the whole 4th quarter. Remember more those stretches in the NC State game, the USC game, at Michigan State…and how they matched up evenly with #1 Georgia….this team can dominate when they are playing highly motivated. Miami has enough flaws to have some really bad stretches Saturday. ND's running game reminds me of Alabama at their best.

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Wanted to add: Actually Travis Homer has been a pretty good fill-in for Walton, but he's not the consistent playmaker Walton was. Homer only carried about 3 ypc vs. NC and Syracuse combined. And the Miami OL and dropsy receivers are a concern. Wimbush, Adams and Deon McIntosh are just impossible for me to play against. With their OL, and these runners, the ND passing game is opened up due to defenses having to overcompensate trying to stop them. Love Rosier's game, but sometimes it seems he's carrying the whole load on his shoulders, and you got to worry about the injury likelihood.

Is Winbush 100%?
Isn’t it his non throwing hand? That could be nothing or a lot. Makes me nervous.

5* Colorado +12.5 This is the 11th game in a row for USC without a bye. That is almost inhumane for a college team. Especially one that is dinged up, and injury riddled, as USC. I just think this game looks like a road game letdown. USC is traveling, playing early, and I just can't see the Trojans being sharp throughout. Phillip Lindsay will get the ball often and this will help Colorado keep possession away from USC's offense. Montez has looked better recently. The Buffs are 5-5, playing at home, and can cement a bowl game here with a win. The motivation is there. Last home game for seniors, playing USC, and a chance to redeem their season and tie up a bowl spot. I can see USC winning, but not covering. Their season is punctuated with poor halves, sloppy play at times, and games they won that could have easily gone the other way. I also think Colorado has a decent chance of pulling the outright upset.

Serbone said:

Is Winbush 100%?
Isn’t it his non throwing hand? That could be nothing or a lot. Makes me nervous.

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A bruised left hand, his non-throwing hand. He's fine. Apparently he had a busy academic week, and other commitments last week before WF, and didn't feel good. Ian Book and the backup RBs looked pretty good. I think Wimbush has a big game here.

4* Utah ML (+100) Utah is a different team at home, with QB Tyler Huntley playing. Wazzu, likewise, has been mediocre on the road. They almost looked like a different team at Cal and Arizona. I also think Utah's defense, which has been inconsistent this year, makes a difference here in front of their home crowd. Wazzu looks like the play at practically a ML, so why aren't they giving up more points? Because this is a "spot" play. Though the Cougs are the better team, WSU has the Huskies coming up, off a Stanford win, and plays poorly on the road. Utah, like Colorado, may lose, but will be highly motivated.

Interesting nugget: Bryce Love has 12 plays of 40 yards or longer this year...UW is the only team in college football yet to give up a play of 40+ yards.

I appreciate that you take the time to explain your plays. Good luck!

o fred said:

5* Colorado +12.5 This is the 11th game in a row for USC without a bye. That is almost inhumane for a college team. Especially one that is dinged up, and injury riddled, as USC. I just think this game looks like a road game letdown. USC is traveling, playing early, and I just can't see the Trojans being sharp throughout. Phillip Lindsay will get the ball often and this will help Colorado keep possession away from USC's offense. Montez has looked better recently. The Buffs are 5-5, playing at home, and can cement a bowl game here with a win. The motivation is there. Last home game for seniors, playing USC, and a chance to redeem their season and tie up a bowl spot. I can see USC winning, but not covering. Their season is punctuated with poor halves, sloppy play at times, and games they won that could have easily gone the other way. I also think Colorado has a decent chance of pulling the outright upset.

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Ugh..This game now at 14. If you're interested, you'll get a better line than me.

2* Michigan St. +17 I know this is a bad spot for MSU after beating Penn State and Ohio State getting punked by Iowa. Yet I think Ohio State is still getting too much love for their yearly beatings of the weaker teams, and yet underperforming when playing the better teams. They pulled out the Penn State game(didn't cover), but if you watched the Iowa or Oklahoma losses(eye test), or god forbid, their Clemson debacle last year in the playoffs, this OSU team is overrated in games like this. 17 to a really good defense like the Spartans? And MSU's offense is finally looking capable and Lewerke has found a very good downfield passing game. Barrett showed his ugly side last week, and although there Buckeye DL is a definite strength, the rest of the OSU defense looks lost at times- vs. PSU and Iowa. Giving up 93 points to these two opponents is not made up for by shutting down Rutgers, Maryland, and other Big Ten cream puffs. The OSU defensive stats are skewed. They should have 2 different sets of stats- 1) vs. likely bowl teams 2) vs. the crappy offenses that languish in the Big 10, and a couple of weak non-conference opponents. Oh, and Mark Dantonio has out-coached Urban Meyer the last 2 years, no doubt about it. Meyer wins the recruiting crown, but on the field, with the talent Dantonio gets, no contest.

Love the buffs, love the posts..gl ..$$..

3* ODU/ FIU- under 48 ODU's 6-0 win over Charlotte last week an indicator of how bad their QB play is. He's a 17 year old freshman that has the reins held tight by his OC. Their OL has been part of the problem.ODU also loses their best RB to injury, Jeremy Cox. ODU does play pretty solid defense, and with an FIU team that is run heavy, throws a lot of short passes, I can't see this getting near 48. ODU's biggest strength is their DL, and that plays well to this bet.

3* Oklahoma/ TCU- over 61 I know all about TCU's defense, but I think OU's offense is sort of in that unstoppable phase right now. Mayfield is in the zone, and his mobility presents a problem for even a good D like TCU has. I also think TCU knows it has to open up the playbook to keep up with OU. If OU gets out front here, TCU will have to pass more often(though their running threats are dangerous too), and their playmakers are small and fast. TCU can put up 30+ here and maybe more in this type of game. I can think of many good defenses in the Big 12, over the past many years, getting into high scoring, late season shootouts. As for Kenny Hill, he only has 5 ints, has mobility also, and I like the possibilities of his game vs. this OU defense.

o fred said:

5* Colorado +12.5 This is the 11th game in a row for USC without a bye. That is almost inhumane for a college team. Especially one that is dinged up, and injury riddled, as USC. I just think this game looks like a road game letdown. USC is traveling, playing early, and I just can't see the Trojans being sharp throughout. Phillip Lindsay will get the ball often and this will help Colorado keep possession away from USC's offense. Montez has looked better recently. The Buffs are 5-5, playing at home, and can cement a bowl game here with a win. The motivation is there. Last home game for seniors, playing USC, and a chance to redeem their season and tie up a bowl spot. I can see USC winning, but not covering. Their season is punctuated with poor halves, sloppy play at times, and games they won that could have easily gone the other way. I also think Colorado has a decent chance of pulling the outright upset.

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Respectfully disagree. Buffs are regressing and their undersized defense will get steamrolled by USC. I'm a C.U. alum and have watched this team succumb to offenses a lot less talented than the Trojans.

1* Iowa State +7(-125) If James Washington is out or not quite 90%, then OSU's offense loses their most dangerous weapon. Iowa State plays well on their home grass field. It seems to help their defense deal with high scoring teams like the Cowboys. If I had any guts, I'd play the ML.

1* Ga. Tech +3 GT has been tough to stop for everyone except Clemson. VT coming off their Miami loss, will have to prep for a totally different offense, and could be a little down. GT running game looks to be the best in recent years, and gets the Hokies at home.

1* Colorado St. +7 (-130) CSU is better than they have played. Major redemption game here at home vs. an overrated Boise team. I still think Boise's offense is terribly inconsistent.

1* Air Force -3 ​Like CSU, Air Force should be succeeding more on the scoreboard than they are. Wyoming has shown improvement in recent games, but the MWC is full of ups and downs, and I think Wyoming struggles here on the road.

Thanks for all the write ups.

I think you are bang on with your assessment of the convicts vs catholics game. 60 minutes of solid football from the irish vs 35 minutes of good football from the U.

BOL