Best CFB Week 11 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
Our experts are back with their Week 11 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-5 in Week 10 (35-44-2 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 5-0 in Week 10 (33-14-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 4-3 in Week 10 (40-31-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) at No. 10 Auburn Tigers
Steele: Georgia has won nine of the past 11 in the series and has pulled off back-to-back upsets in the past two years. Georgia is playing with unbeaten pressure and has the No. 1 target on its back. Auburn has solid numbers, registering plus-146 yards per game in SEC play and with its defense holding foes to 111 yards per game below their season average. Auburn's defensive numbers have suffered from giving up yards with large leads. Up big versus Mississippi, the Tigers allowed 20 points in the second half, and they gave up late touchdowns in each of their past two games. Georgia has even better numbers at plus-228 yards per game in conference play, and its defense holds foes to 152 yards per game below their season average. Both teams have excellent defensive fronts, but with Kamryn Pettway out, Georgia has the deeper roster of running backs. Home teams have done well in big games this year (not to mention, the home team has won six of the past eight in this series), and these two squads are very close in talent. I give a slight edge at quarterback to Auburn, so I'm going with the home team to pull the upset.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 23, Georgia 20
Coughlin: What should we expect from the Bulldogs in this spot, on the road against a rival as the No. 1 team in the country? Earlier this year, the Bulldogs went to Notre Dame and won, but they were the underdog. I don't see either team scoring more than 20 points. Jarrett Stidham had to envision games like this when he chose Auburn as the school he would play for after Baylor. I trust Georgia's talent to win and cover this game on the road.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Auburn 16
Fallica: This will be Georgia's toughest task to date. We've seen the Auburn defense shut down Clemson and Mississippi State, and I'd expect that unit to be flying around Jordan-Hare Stadium with everything in front of them this season. The same goes for the other side of the field, where Kirby Smart's crew is a pretty salty bunch themselves. I don't expect many points in this one, and the winner is basically a coin flip. I feel stronger about the total here.
Pick: Under 47 total points
Score: Georgia 20, Auburn 17
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)
Steele: Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule of the two (No. 11 versus No. 56) and is playing to an average game grade of 108.8, compared with TCU at 102.2. Factor in a five-point home edge, and that power rating has Oklahoma by 11.4. Still, TCU has the best defense in the Big 12 and holds foes to 161 yards per game below their season average. TCU also holds the edge on special teams (No. 17 versus No. 104), and Gary Patterson has the big-game coaching edge. Lincoln Riley is 2-0 in his biggest games this year, but both were as an underdog.
Oklahoma is 104-10 at home over the past 19 years, and it is plus-273 yards per game in home games this season; the Horned Frogs are just plus-73 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma also has the best offense in the country and averages 223 yards per game more than what their opponents normally allow in Big 12 play, whereas TCU's offense gains 15 yards per game less than what their Big 12 foes normally allow.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 37, TCU 27
Coughlin: The winner will be alone in first place in the Big 12 with two games to play, but the loser will still be in solid position to make the conference title game. The Horned Frogs are first in rushing defense nationally, allowing less than 70 yards per game. Baker Mayfield has been unreal running the Sooners' offense, which averages 45 points and 608 yards of offense per contest, but it should be pointed out that Oklahoma has run for 200 or more yards just three times this season. Patterson might use a game plan similar to the one he used to defeat Oklahoma State earlier this year, and I think the Horned Frogs will slow down the Sooners' offense in this one, as well. Expect the TCU rushing offense, which averages 193 yards per game, to control play enough for the Horned Frogs to stay in the game.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Oklahoma 31, TCU 28
Fallica: OU moved through the Oklahoma State defense at will last week, but TCU has done a good job this season, slowing down Oklahoma State and West Virginia, two of the best offenses in the Big 12. It's rare to win in both Stillwater and Norman in the same season, but I get the sense that coach Gary Patterson and his team are still irked by letting one get away last season versus Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs' defense will do enough to keep TCU, at the very least, in this one all the way.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Oklahoma 38, TCU 35
No. 19 Washington State Cougars (-1) at Utah Utes
Steele: Washington State opened with five home games, but now plays its fourth road game in six weeks. The Cougars lost their past two road games by 34 and 31 points. Utah was without quarterback Tyler Huntley versus Stanford and USC, but also dropped the next two when he returned. However, Huntley then guided Utah to 506 yards and 48 points against UCLA last week. Utah is now in its second straight home game, increasing its altitude advantage. The Utes sit at five wins, just one shy of bowl eligibility. Washington State does have the better defense, holding foes to 111 yards per game below their season average, but the Cougs also net just 4 yards per game on the road.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 27, Washington State 23
Coughlin: Few coaches give me the confidence that Kyle Wittingham does, and few teams in college football give me the confidence that Utah does when it plays at home. Just look at last week, a Friday night home game versus a 4-4 UCLA team. There wasn't an empty seat in Rice-Eccles Stadium. A nationally ranked Washington State team comes in with a potential Pac-12 title-game spot on the line, along with a very slim chance at the College Football Playoff. The issue I have with the Cougars -- and trust me, it has nothing to do with them beating my Cardinal last week -- is that they haven't looked like themselves in their past two road games, getting blown out by California and Arizona. I think Utah has the talent on defense to limit the Wazzu run game and focus on pressuring Luke Falk, and I think Utah wins.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 27, Washington State 24
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14) at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Steele: Not only has Alabama won nine in a row in the series, it has held Mississippi State to seven total touchdowns in those nine meetings. The Tide have allowed 10 points or less in all but one, winning by 25 and 48 points in the past two years. They were coming off LSU in each of those, just as they are this year, and they only have Mercer on deck. Alabama held Nick Fitzgerald to 15 rushing yards and 145 pass yards last year, with Mississippi State gaining 166 of its 274 yards after trailing by 30 at the half. The Tide get more motivated on the SEC road and have beaten the Vegas number nine of the past 11 times. Bama is plus-294 yards per game in SEC play, averaging 6.1 rushing yards per carry.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 10
Fallica: Alabama hasn't been this small of a favorite since the FSU season opener. The Tide look like a team in need of a breather right now. The defense is littered with injuries, and I get the sense that quarterback Jalen Hurts isn't quite 100 percent right now, either. The Tide had trouble running the ball on LSU at home, and after sleepwalking through the close victory against UMass last week, I think Dan Mullen will have his Bulldogs ready for a prime effort. I don't know if it will be good enough to win outright, but it could mimic the 2014 game, which ended with an Alabama 25-20 win. The Bulldogs have been very pesky as a big home 'dog lately.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Alabama 31, Mississippi State 21
Saturday games
No. 23 NC State Wolfpack (-3) at Boston College Eagles
Steele: Boston College has won eight of 12 in the series and upset the Wolfpack on the road last year as a two-touchdown underdog. The visitor has now won three in a row. This is a great situation for Boston College, which is fresh off a bye, whereas NC State just had tough losses in huge games versus Notre Dame and Clemson. Boston College has a slight schedule edge (No. 33 versus No. 15). Both own upsets of Louisville and Florida State to go along with losses to Notre Dame and Clemson. BC averaged just 322 yards per game during its first six games, but then jumped to 465 yards per game during its past three games. The Eagles actually have my No. 1-rated pass defense and held their past two foes to season-low yard totals. Both teams have dynamic pass-rushers, and the sack totals for each team are close. Boston College has beaten the Vegas number by 19.8 points per game in its past five games, so I'll call for the upset.
ATS pick: Boston College
Score: Boston College 28, NC State 23
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Marshall Thundering Herd (-13)
Steele: Western Kentucky is on the road for a second-straight game, but Marshall is off a pair of tough losses. The Herd offensive line has allowed just four sacks, and Western Kentucky has recorded just seven sacks, so Chase Litton should have plenty of time to throw. When Marshall chooses to rush, it has seen success, averaging 175 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry in C-USA play; Western Kentucky averages just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.3 yards per carry, and it is also allowing 5.8 yards per carry in conference play. Since being embarrassed by 54 points to end last year, Marshall has covered in seven of nine games. WKU quarterback Mike White (14-6 TD-INT ratio) is also questionable for this game.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 30, Kentucky 10
Michigan Wolverines (-17) at Maryland Terrapins
Steele: Maryland third-string quarterback Max Bortenschlager got injured last week, and Air Force transfer Ryan Brand took over and could be the starter this week. Even if Bortenschlager is able to play, Maryland is averaging just 303 yards per game in conference play, which is 42 yards per game less than its opponents allow on average. In Brandon Peters' first start, Michigan put up 427 yards versus a Minnesota team that was allowing just 317 yards per game -- Maryland's defense is allowing 449 yards per game. Versus Ohio State and Wisconsin, Maryland lost by an average of 50-14 and was outgained by 345 yards per game.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 38, Maryland 10
Duke Blue Devils (-3) at Army Black Knights
Steele: David Cutcliffe does a great job when facing option offenses, holding the past seven to 41 yards per game below their season average. Duke has the added edge of being off a bye, and with Georgia Tech on deck, it will be fully focused. The Blue Devils won their last trip here in 2015 by 41 points, and Army was held to a season-low 168 yards. Duke then held Army to a season-low 214 yards last year in Durham. This year, the Blue Devils are allowing just 340 yards per game.
Duke has taken on my 46th-toughest schedule, whereas Army has taken on my 102nd-toughest. Quarterback Daniel Jones began the season completing 67 percent of his passes, but has completed just 45 percent during the Blue Devils' five-game losing streak. Keep in mind that streak is against five ACC teams, including Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech, which combine to average my No. 9 pass-efficiency defense. Army has my No. 106-ranked pass-efficiency defense. The Black Knights have beaten the Vegas line versus FBS foes at home just once in their past 10 games and are coming off a huge upset win over their rival.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 20, Army 13
No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5) at No. 7 Miami Hurricanes
Coughlin: Last week's Miami win impressed me quite a bit. The defense demolished Virginia Tech and made it so hard on the offense. But how challenging is the Hokies' offense when you really think about it? That offense doesn't come close to the Irish's talent. Notre Dame comes in averaging 41 points per game and an amazing 324 yards on the ground, which ranks fifth in the country. I'm just not sure that Miami can play better on defense than it did last week, when it created four turnovers and held Virginia Tech to 10 points. I think the Irish are ready for this atmosphere and stage, and I think the road favorite wins and covers.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 23, Miami 17
No. 17 Virginia Tech Hokies (-3) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Fallica: The Jackets have dropped their past couple of games, one by a big margin and one by a close score. Including the loss at Miami, they have lost three of four. This series has recently been controlled by the road team, but I like the home side here catching points. After Virginia Tech saw its Coastal hopes dashed, I wonder if this spot sets up perfectly for the Jackets to catch the Hokies sleeping with the early kick, as they run that option up and down the field intent on snapping their recent slump. Paul Johnson is a proud man, and there will be no quit in the Jackets.
ATS pick: Georgia Tech
Score: Georgia Tech 33, Virginia Tech 28
No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6.5) at No. 21 Iowa State Cyclones
Fallica: Iowa State continues to be undervalued. A win here would give the Cyclones a big tiebreaker edge in the race for the Big 12 championship game. Iowa State's defense has played lights out much of the season in Big 12 play, and after falling down 20 last week in Morgantown, West Virginia, it shutout one of the better offenses in the conference the rest of the way. The Cyclones just couldn't capitalize in the red zone to get the win. Back home for the final time this season, I like Iowa State to win. Oklahoma State has struggled in Ames lately, and I expect that to continue.
ATS pick: Iowa State
Score: Iowa State 31, Oklahoma State 30
Purdue Boilermakers at No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats (-4.5)
Fallica: This line stinks. Purdue has dropped three of four since a 3-2 start, but each of those losses were close. Purdue needs two wins to hit the magic number of six for bowl eligibility, and that would mean pulling a road upset this week or at Iowa next week, in addition to capturing the bucket in the season finale against Indiana. How much do the Wildcats have in the tank after winning three straight overtime games? Aren't they due to come out a little flat here? As I said, even in defeat, Purdue has scrapped, losing 17-9 to Wisconsin, losing by two at Rutgers and blowing the Nebraska game. The Boilers will be in this one with a good chance to win outright.
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Northwestern 28, Purdue 27
Friday games
Temple Owls (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bearcats
Coughlin: The Owls went to Michie Stadium a few weeks back and lost a heartbreaking game to Army in overtime. The Black Knights drove the length of the field in the last minute of the game to force overtime and hit a field goal to start the extra frame, and Temple went on to miss a 20-yard attempt. The Owls started Frank Nutile at quarterback in that game, and they looked a lot better on offense. They then hosted Navy last Thursday out of their bye and pulled a 34-26 upset, with Nutile throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns. I like the spot for Temple here. The Owls need this game to keep their bowl chances afloat. Give me the road favorite to win and cover.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: Temple 17, Cincinnati 3
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
Our experts are back with their Week 11 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-5 in Week 10 (35-44-2 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 5-0 in Week 10 (33-14-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 4-3 in Week 10 (40-31-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) at No. 10 Auburn Tigers
Steele: Georgia has won nine of the past 11 in the series and has pulled off back-to-back upsets in the past two years. Georgia is playing with unbeaten pressure and has the No. 1 target on its back. Auburn has solid numbers, registering plus-146 yards per game in SEC play and with its defense holding foes to 111 yards per game below their season average. Auburn's defensive numbers have suffered from giving up yards with large leads. Up big versus Mississippi, the Tigers allowed 20 points in the second half, and they gave up late touchdowns in each of their past two games. Georgia has even better numbers at plus-228 yards per game in conference play, and its defense holds foes to 152 yards per game below their season average. Both teams have excellent defensive fronts, but with Kamryn Pettway out, Georgia has the deeper roster of running backs. Home teams have done well in big games this year (not to mention, the home team has won six of the past eight in this series), and these two squads are very close in talent. I give a slight edge at quarterback to Auburn, so I'm going with the home team to pull the upset.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 23, Georgia 20
Coughlin: What should we expect from the Bulldogs in this spot, on the road against a rival as the No. 1 team in the country? Earlier this year, the Bulldogs went to Notre Dame and won, but they were the underdog. I don't see either team scoring more than 20 points. Jarrett Stidham had to envision games like this when he chose Auburn as the school he would play for after Baylor. I trust Georgia's talent to win and cover this game on the road.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Auburn 16
Fallica: This will be Georgia's toughest task to date. We've seen the Auburn defense shut down Clemson and Mississippi State, and I'd expect that unit to be flying around Jordan-Hare Stadium with everything in front of them this season. The same goes for the other side of the field, where Kirby Smart's crew is a pretty salty bunch themselves. I don't expect many points in this one, and the winner is basically a coin flip. I feel stronger about the total here.
Pick: Under 47 total points
Score: Georgia 20, Auburn 17
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)
Steele: Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule of the two (No. 11 versus No. 56) and is playing to an average game grade of 108.8, compared with TCU at 102.2. Factor in a five-point home edge, and that power rating has Oklahoma by 11.4. Still, TCU has the best defense in the Big 12 and holds foes to 161 yards per game below their season average. TCU also holds the edge on special teams (No. 17 versus No. 104), and Gary Patterson has the big-game coaching edge. Lincoln Riley is 2-0 in his biggest games this year, but both were as an underdog.
Oklahoma is 104-10 at home over the past 19 years, and it is plus-273 yards per game in home games this season; the Horned Frogs are just plus-73 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma also has the best offense in the country and averages 223 yards per game more than what their opponents normally allow in Big 12 play, whereas TCU's offense gains 15 yards per game less than what their Big 12 foes normally allow.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 37, TCU 27
Coughlin: The winner will be alone in first place in the Big 12 with two games to play, but the loser will still be in solid position to make the conference title game. The Horned Frogs are first in rushing defense nationally, allowing less than 70 yards per game. Baker Mayfield has been unreal running the Sooners' offense, which averages 45 points and 608 yards of offense per contest, but it should be pointed out that Oklahoma has run for 200 or more yards just three times this season. Patterson might use a game plan similar to the one he used to defeat Oklahoma State earlier this year, and I think the Horned Frogs will slow down the Sooners' offense in this one, as well. Expect the TCU rushing offense, which averages 193 yards per game, to control play enough for the Horned Frogs to stay in the game.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Oklahoma 31, TCU 28
Fallica: OU moved through the Oklahoma State defense at will last week, but TCU has done a good job this season, slowing down Oklahoma State and West Virginia, two of the best offenses in the Big 12. It's rare to win in both Stillwater and Norman in the same season, but I get the sense that coach Gary Patterson and his team are still irked by letting one get away last season versus Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs' defense will do enough to keep TCU, at the very least, in this one all the way.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Oklahoma 38, TCU 35
No. 19 Washington State Cougars (-1) at Utah Utes
Steele: Washington State opened with five home games, but now plays its fourth road game in six weeks. The Cougars lost their past two road games by 34 and 31 points. Utah was without quarterback Tyler Huntley versus Stanford and USC, but also dropped the next two when he returned. However, Huntley then guided Utah to 506 yards and 48 points against UCLA last week. Utah is now in its second straight home game, increasing its altitude advantage. The Utes sit at five wins, just one shy of bowl eligibility. Washington State does have the better defense, holding foes to 111 yards per game below their season average, but the Cougs also net just 4 yards per game on the road.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 27, Washington State 23
Coughlin: Few coaches give me the confidence that Kyle Wittingham does, and few teams in college football give me the confidence that Utah does when it plays at home. Just look at last week, a Friday night home game versus a 4-4 UCLA team. There wasn't an empty seat in Rice-Eccles Stadium. A nationally ranked Washington State team comes in with a potential Pac-12 title-game spot on the line, along with a very slim chance at the College Football Playoff. The issue I have with the Cougars -- and trust me, it has nothing to do with them beating my Cardinal last week -- is that they haven't looked like themselves in their past two road games, getting blown out by California and Arizona. I think Utah has the talent on defense to limit the Wazzu run game and focus on pressuring Luke Falk, and I think Utah wins.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 27, Washington State 24
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14) at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Steele: Not only has Alabama won nine in a row in the series, it has held Mississippi State to seven total touchdowns in those nine meetings. The Tide have allowed 10 points or less in all but one, winning by 25 and 48 points in the past two years. They were coming off LSU in each of those, just as they are this year, and they only have Mercer on deck. Alabama held Nick Fitzgerald to 15 rushing yards and 145 pass yards last year, with Mississippi State gaining 166 of its 274 yards after trailing by 30 at the half. The Tide get more motivated on the SEC road and have beaten the Vegas number nine of the past 11 times. Bama is plus-294 yards per game in SEC play, averaging 6.1 rushing yards per carry.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 10
Fallica: Alabama hasn't been this small of a favorite since the FSU season opener. The Tide look like a team in need of a breather right now. The defense is littered with injuries, and I get the sense that quarterback Jalen Hurts isn't quite 100 percent right now, either. The Tide had trouble running the ball on LSU at home, and after sleepwalking through the close victory against UMass last week, I think Dan Mullen will have his Bulldogs ready for a prime effort. I don't know if it will be good enough to win outright, but it could mimic the 2014 game, which ended with an Alabama 25-20 win. The Bulldogs have been very pesky as a big home 'dog lately.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Alabama 31, Mississippi State 21
Saturday games
No. 23 NC State Wolfpack (-3) at Boston College Eagles
Steele: Boston College has won eight of 12 in the series and upset the Wolfpack on the road last year as a two-touchdown underdog. The visitor has now won three in a row. This is a great situation for Boston College, which is fresh off a bye, whereas NC State just had tough losses in huge games versus Notre Dame and Clemson. Boston College has a slight schedule edge (No. 33 versus No. 15). Both own upsets of Louisville and Florida State to go along with losses to Notre Dame and Clemson. BC averaged just 322 yards per game during its first six games, but then jumped to 465 yards per game during its past three games. The Eagles actually have my No. 1-rated pass defense and held their past two foes to season-low yard totals. Both teams have dynamic pass-rushers, and the sack totals for each team are close. Boston College has beaten the Vegas number by 19.8 points per game in its past five games, so I'll call for the upset.
ATS pick: Boston College
Score: Boston College 28, NC State 23
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Marshall Thundering Herd (-13)
Steele: Western Kentucky is on the road for a second-straight game, but Marshall is off a pair of tough losses. The Herd offensive line has allowed just four sacks, and Western Kentucky has recorded just seven sacks, so Chase Litton should have plenty of time to throw. When Marshall chooses to rush, it has seen success, averaging 175 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry in C-USA play; Western Kentucky averages just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.3 yards per carry, and it is also allowing 5.8 yards per carry in conference play. Since being embarrassed by 54 points to end last year, Marshall has covered in seven of nine games. WKU quarterback Mike White (14-6 TD-INT ratio) is also questionable for this game.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 30, Kentucky 10
Michigan Wolverines (-17) at Maryland Terrapins
Steele: Maryland third-string quarterback Max Bortenschlager got injured last week, and Air Force transfer Ryan Brand took over and could be the starter this week. Even if Bortenschlager is able to play, Maryland is averaging just 303 yards per game in conference play, which is 42 yards per game less than its opponents allow on average. In Brandon Peters' first start, Michigan put up 427 yards versus a Minnesota team that was allowing just 317 yards per game -- Maryland's defense is allowing 449 yards per game. Versus Ohio State and Wisconsin, Maryland lost by an average of 50-14 and was outgained by 345 yards per game.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 38, Maryland 10
Duke Blue Devils (-3) at Army Black Knights
Steele: David Cutcliffe does a great job when facing option offenses, holding the past seven to 41 yards per game below their season average. Duke has the added edge of being off a bye, and with Georgia Tech on deck, it will be fully focused. The Blue Devils won their last trip here in 2015 by 41 points, and Army was held to a season-low 168 yards. Duke then held Army to a season-low 214 yards last year in Durham. This year, the Blue Devils are allowing just 340 yards per game.
Duke has taken on my 46th-toughest schedule, whereas Army has taken on my 102nd-toughest. Quarterback Daniel Jones began the season completing 67 percent of his passes, but has completed just 45 percent during the Blue Devils' five-game losing streak. Keep in mind that streak is against five ACC teams, including Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech, which combine to average my No. 9 pass-efficiency defense. Army has my No. 106-ranked pass-efficiency defense. The Black Knights have beaten the Vegas line versus FBS foes at home just once in their past 10 games and are coming off a huge upset win over their rival.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 20, Army 13
No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5) at No. 7 Miami Hurricanes
Coughlin: Last week's Miami win impressed me quite a bit. The defense demolished Virginia Tech and made it so hard on the offense. But how challenging is the Hokies' offense when you really think about it? That offense doesn't come close to the Irish's talent. Notre Dame comes in averaging 41 points per game and an amazing 324 yards on the ground, which ranks fifth in the country. I'm just not sure that Miami can play better on defense than it did last week, when it created four turnovers and held Virginia Tech to 10 points. I think the Irish are ready for this atmosphere and stage, and I think the road favorite wins and covers.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 23, Miami 17
No. 17 Virginia Tech Hokies (-3) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Fallica: The Jackets have dropped their past couple of games, one by a big margin and one by a close score. Including the loss at Miami, they have lost three of four. This series has recently been controlled by the road team, but I like the home side here catching points. After Virginia Tech saw its Coastal hopes dashed, I wonder if this spot sets up perfectly for the Jackets to catch the Hokies sleeping with the early kick, as they run that option up and down the field intent on snapping their recent slump. Paul Johnson is a proud man, and there will be no quit in the Jackets.
ATS pick: Georgia Tech
Score: Georgia Tech 33, Virginia Tech 28
No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6.5) at No. 21 Iowa State Cyclones
Fallica: Iowa State continues to be undervalued. A win here would give the Cyclones a big tiebreaker edge in the race for the Big 12 championship game. Iowa State's defense has played lights out much of the season in Big 12 play, and after falling down 20 last week in Morgantown, West Virginia, it shutout one of the better offenses in the conference the rest of the way. The Cyclones just couldn't capitalize in the red zone to get the win. Back home for the final time this season, I like Iowa State to win. Oklahoma State has struggled in Ames lately, and I expect that to continue.
ATS pick: Iowa State
Score: Iowa State 31, Oklahoma State 30
Purdue Boilermakers at No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats (-4.5)
Fallica: This line stinks. Purdue has dropped three of four since a 3-2 start, but each of those losses were close. Purdue needs two wins to hit the magic number of six for bowl eligibility, and that would mean pulling a road upset this week or at Iowa next week, in addition to capturing the bucket in the season finale against Indiana. How much do the Wildcats have in the tank after winning three straight overtime games? Aren't they due to come out a little flat here? As I said, even in defeat, Purdue has scrapped, losing 17-9 to Wisconsin, losing by two at Rutgers and blowing the Nebraska game. The Boilers will be in this one with a good chance to win outright.
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Northwestern 28, Purdue 27
Friday games
Temple Owls (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bearcats
Coughlin: The Owls went to Michie Stadium a few weeks back and lost a heartbreaking game to Army in overtime. The Black Knights drove the length of the field in the last minute of the game to force overtime and hit a field goal to start the extra frame, and Temple went on to miss a 20-yard attempt. The Owls started Frank Nutile at quarterback in that game, and they looked a lot better on offense. They then hosted Navy last Thursday out of their bye and pulled a 34-26 upset, with Nutile throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns. I like the spot for Temple here. The Owls need this game to keep their bowl chances afloat. Give me the road favorite to win and cover.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: Temple 17, Cincinnati 3
