How to bet Miami-Carolina
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's game between the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on Miami
Phil Steele
Miami has averaged 24 points per game at home, but just nine points and 246 yards per game on the road. The Dolphins were shutout by the middle-of-the-road Baltimore Ravens, 40-0, in their most recent road contest. Carolina leads the NFL by holding opposing offenses to 84 yards per game below their average, while Miami averages 76 yards per game below what their opponents usually allow. It is hard to imagine the Panthers' offense scoring a lot, but the Ravens put up 40 despite just totaling 295 yards. Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck and win this by double digits.
ATS pick: Carolina
Erin Rynning
The offensive lines for both teams will have their hands full in this matchup. The Dolphins will not have Ja'Wuan James on their offensive line, and the Panthers' defense ranks second in the NFL in sacks. On the other side, the Panthers will once again be without their center in Ryan Kalil on their own offensive line. Both defensive fronts are solid, and Cam Newton won't have consistent time to pick apart an iffy Dolphins secondary.
Pick: Lean on under
Mike Clay
Prediction: Carolina 21, Miami 15
ATS pick: Miami and the under
John Parolin's prop bet
4.5 combined sacks by both teams (Over -120, Under +110)
Remember when the Panthers were going to modify their offense to protect Newton? That really seems so long ago, and Carolina's quarterback has been sacked and hit more often (2.6 sacks per game) and has run the ball himself more often this year than he did last year. Since Newton's 2011 rookie season, he's been contacted 1,018 times (sacked, hit on a running play or hit while throwing). The next-closest quarterback in that span is Russell Wilson (679, 339 times fewer than Newton). Newton alone makes a five total sacks more likely than four, but Jay Cutler's 1.9 sacks per game also reinforces the over. Nothing about these pass rushes should dissuade the over, either. Carolina's pass rush has sacks on 8.9 percent of opponent pass plays, the second-best mark in the league behind the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Panthers are one of five defenses to pressure opposing quarterbacks on at least 30 percent of pass plays and could get to Cutler. Miami's pass rush has produced a sack on 6.0 percent of pass plays, almost in line with the league average (6.4). Five is a more reasonable expectation than four, and by more than the simple difference in pricing.
Pick: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's game between the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on Miami
Phil Steele
Miami has averaged 24 points per game at home, but just nine points and 246 yards per game on the road. The Dolphins were shutout by the middle-of-the-road Baltimore Ravens, 40-0, in their most recent road contest. Carolina leads the NFL by holding opposing offenses to 84 yards per game below their average, while Miami averages 76 yards per game below what their opponents usually allow. It is hard to imagine the Panthers' offense scoring a lot, but the Ravens put up 40 despite just totaling 295 yards. Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck and win this by double digits.
ATS pick: Carolina
Erin Rynning
The offensive lines for both teams will have their hands full in this matchup. The Dolphins will not have Ja'Wuan James on their offensive line, and the Panthers' defense ranks second in the NFL in sacks. On the other side, the Panthers will once again be without their center in Ryan Kalil on their own offensive line. Both defensive fronts are solid, and Cam Newton won't have consistent time to pick apart an iffy Dolphins secondary.
Pick: Lean on under
Mike Clay
Prediction: Carolina 21, Miami 15
ATS pick: Miami and the under
John Parolin's prop bet
4.5 combined sacks by both teams (Over -120, Under +110)
Remember when the Panthers were going to modify their offense to protect Newton? That really seems so long ago, and Carolina's quarterback has been sacked and hit more often (2.6 sacks per game) and has run the ball himself more often this year than he did last year. Since Newton's 2011 rookie season, he's been contacted 1,018 times (sacked, hit on a running play or hit while throwing). The next-closest quarterback in that span is Russell Wilson (679, 339 times fewer than Newton). Newton alone makes a five total sacks more likely than four, but Jay Cutler's 1.9 sacks per game also reinforces the over. Nothing about these pass rushes should dissuade the over, either. Carolina's pass rush has sacks on 8.9 percent of opponent pass plays, the second-best mark in the league behind the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Panthers are one of five defenses to pressure opposing quarterbacks on at least 30 percent of pass plays and could get to Cutler. Miami's pass rush has produced a sack on 6.0 percent of pass plays, almost in line with the league average (6.4). Five is a more reasonable expectation than four, and by more than the simple difference in pricing.
Pick: Over
