CFB betting look for Week 12: Cycling down on Iowa State
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 12, we explain why we're selling one of the best stories of the year, examine one of this week's SEC tilts with an eye toward Week 13, and explore the November phenomenon of scoreboard-watching.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
New Mexico State Aggies
One of a host of four- and five-win teams jockeying for a bowl berth, New Mexico State hasn't been to the postseason party since the 1960 Sun Bowl. The Aggies entered this season with something to prove in their Sun Belt swan song and high expectations for what is easily fifth-year coach Doug Martin's best squad.
The Aggies are 4-5 and coming off an open date with three games left to play. An improved defense is still undermanned, so New Mexico State is still having to try to outscore opponents almost every week. However, with the nation's seventh-leading passer Tyler Rogers slinging the rock and NFL prospect Larry Rose III toting it, they're more equipped to win their share of those games than ever before.
A road trip to Lafayette, followed by home dates with Idaho and South Alabama, give this team a decent chance to snap the nation's longest bowl drought.
Sell
Iowa State Cyclones
We loved backing Matt Campbell's Toledo teams and are full believers in what's happening in Ames, but the next two games are not the time to send it in on the Cyclones. Their four-game winning streak, which began with an upset win at Oklahoma and the emergence of Kyle Kempt at quarterback, was capped by an emotional home win over then-unbeaten TCU.
The Cyclones fell behind West Virginia 20-0 in the obvious letdown spot, then fought back to lose 20-16. Then last week, a seesaw game with Oklahoma State saw Iowa State's hopes die at the 3-yard line in the final seconds for a gut-wrenching loss. It's been a whirlwind season with a string of recent tight games, the open date is far in the rearview mirror, and the Cyclones' last outing was a heartbreak for the ages.
To put it bluntly, this bunch is out of gas, and not even an excellent coaching staff can prevent them from stopping to grab a subconscious breath heading into the matchup with a one-win Baylor team. The prices have caught up with this surprise team, too, as evidenced by their last two games ending in half-point ATS losses. Prior to that, Iowa State was 7-1 ATS, with the four-game winning streak producing four ATS wins, by an average of nearly 25 points.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
LSU Tigers (-15.5) at Tennessee Volunteers
Bear with me, here: Vanderbilt started out 3-0 then lost four straight games by an average of more than 31 points. Then came a well-timed open date, during which the team regrouped in time to put forth its best effort since September in a 34-27 loss at South Carolina -- the only one of the team's (now six) SEC losses by single digits. The Commodores turned the positives from that game into a 14-point home win over Western Kentucky the following week.
Saturday's home game versus a Kentucky team (which had just dropped a heartbreaker) set up better for Vanderbilt than any conference game all year, and the Commodores continued to progress last week in practice. It was pretty much a "must-win" to turn the momentum and improvements started during their open date into a strong finish. Unfortunately for them, Kentucky successfully channeled their Ole Miss loss into anger and determination. When Kentucky's "A-game" met Vanderbilt's "A-game" on Saturday night, the Wildcats were 23 points better -- on Vandy's field, no less.
OK. So, what does that all of that have to do with Tennessee and LSU?
Butch Jones' inevitable ouster finally became official, and that's a huge weight off everybody at Tennessee. Plenty of interim coaches have led their squads to spirited finishes in such circumstances, and if Brady Hoke can do the same, Vanderbilt might be ripe for the picking in two weeks, especially if the Commodores can't upset surging Missouri in Week 12.
Sometimes it's just a matter of a "cloud lifting" and football suddenly becomes fun again. Sometimes the players just need to hear a new voice. Sometimes it's other things. In many circumstances, the firing of a head coach can be a spark. However, sometimes the team simply has such bad chemistry, it's just better to get the season over with as soon as possible. The coming week will bring plenty of clues as to whether or not Tennessee's players like being around each other enough to try to extend their season. If this bunch plays hard, shows progress and gains confidence against LSU, even in defeat, it won't be hard to imagine the Volunteers swallowing their seventh loss fairly easily, getting hungry for a win and treating the home revenge matchup with Vanderbilt as their bowl game.
At this point, we've no idea what's going to happen when LSU comes to Knoxville and, while we're certainly going to try, we don't anticipate having that figured out by kickoff. Without unexpectedly strong reads during the week, we'll probably pass on this game. Still, we'll be watching closely because playing LSU will reveal what this Tennessee team has left in it and what it will look like on the field in terms of structure, personnel, game plan, etc.
If Hoke can reunite and galvanize the staff and team while overseeing a few schematic improvements, it will show up this week even if the Volunteers can't pull the upset. For us, this is one of the most fascinating games of the week, but it's all about watching to see if Tennessee gives us the "buy sign" for next week and the finale against a fading Vanderbilt outfit.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
'Scoreboard-watching' is a November tradition among contending teams.
In last season's final week, Penn State trailed Michigan State 12-10 at the half, but it erupted in the second half for a 45-12 win. The Beaver Stadium crowd was exuberant in the first half when it learned that Ohio State had beaten Michigan. That result meant that Penn State had gotten the help it needed to once again control its own destiny. The Nittany Lions would claim the Big Ten East if it could close out the Spartans -- and by the end of halftime every man in the locker room knew it.
What happened in the second half was no accident, just as reports of a Michigan win would likely have given Michigan State a far better chance of holding its slim halftime lead. The power of one game's final score being able to impact a different game being played hundreds of miles away is part of a larger reality that's central to the sport. External stimuli constantly cause stark changes in performance. As the conference races wind down in November, you want to be on the lookout for teams that might, like Penn State, catch themselves scoreboard-watching -- for better or worse.
San Diego State needs Fresno State to lose twice but knows the Bulldogs have a tough outing in league power Boise State next week. Fresno State plays at Wyoming a full eight-and-a-half hours before San Diego State kicks it off as a big favorite versus Nevada. If the Bulldogs win in the afternoon to clinch the division, that would definitely reduce the appeal of backing the Aztecs that night.
Stanford kicks it off with Cal at 5 p.m. local time as huge 17-point favorites, and a Cardinal win would eliminate Washington from the Pac-12 race. The Huskies start just a few hours later in front of a home crowd that will be very interested in the score of the Big Game. Sure, the Huskies are still alive, but Stanford just beat them, so the team has likely accepted that they've already blown their shot. If Stanford is handling their business against Cal, we wouldn't advise making any second half bets on Washington.
If that ends up being the case, next week's Apple Cup would still determine the Pac-12 North, but it would be the Cardinal who could find themselves scoreboard-watching while trying to battle Notre Dame. Washington State would claim the division with an Apple Cup win, but a Washington win would see the Cardinal representing the North in San Francisco. Neither game's time has yet been set, but there's a good chance that the timing will work out for Stanford to have one eye on Seattle.
Know who controls their own destiny. Know who needs help. Know who might be keeping an eye on that help and what effect that might have. Be especially aware of the scoreboard-watching phenomenon in the Sun Belt race, which currently has four teams tied at the top -- and multiple weeks of play left to go since their title is not resolved by a conference championship game.
Needing just one other team to win or lose paints a simple picture that impacted teams can easily grasp, but for more complicated scenarios you need both an understanding of the league and division tiebreakers, as well as a read on the degree to which the players themselves are aware of the myriad implications that come with a wide range of "in play" games.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 12, we explain why we're selling one of the best stories of the year, examine one of this week's SEC tilts with an eye toward Week 13, and explore the November phenomenon of scoreboard-watching.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
New Mexico State Aggies
One of a host of four- and five-win teams jockeying for a bowl berth, New Mexico State hasn't been to the postseason party since the 1960 Sun Bowl. The Aggies entered this season with something to prove in their Sun Belt swan song and high expectations for what is easily fifth-year coach Doug Martin's best squad.
The Aggies are 4-5 and coming off an open date with three games left to play. An improved defense is still undermanned, so New Mexico State is still having to try to outscore opponents almost every week. However, with the nation's seventh-leading passer Tyler Rogers slinging the rock and NFL prospect Larry Rose III toting it, they're more equipped to win their share of those games than ever before.
A road trip to Lafayette, followed by home dates with Idaho and South Alabama, give this team a decent chance to snap the nation's longest bowl drought.
Sell
Iowa State Cyclones
We loved backing Matt Campbell's Toledo teams and are full believers in what's happening in Ames, but the next two games are not the time to send it in on the Cyclones. Their four-game winning streak, which began with an upset win at Oklahoma and the emergence of Kyle Kempt at quarterback, was capped by an emotional home win over then-unbeaten TCU.
The Cyclones fell behind West Virginia 20-0 in the obvious letdown spot, then fought back to lose 20-16. Then last week, a seesaw game with Oklahoma State saw Iowa State's hopes die at the 3-yard line in the final seconds for a gut-wrenching loss. It's been a whirlwind season with a string of recent tight games, the open date is far in the rearview mirror, and the Cyclones' last outing was a heartbreak for the ages.
To put it bluntly, this bunch is out of gas, and not even an excellent coaching staff can prevent them from stopping to grab a subconscious breath heading into the matchup with a one-win Baylor team. The prices have caught up with this surprise team, too, as evidenced by their last two games ending in half-point ATS losses. Prior to that, Iowa State was 7-1 ATS, with the four-game winning streak producing four ATS wins, by an average of nearly 25 points.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
LSU Tigers (-15.5) at Tennessee Volunteers
Bear with me, here: Vanderbilt started out 3-0 then lost four straight games by an average of more than 31 points. Then came a well-timed open date, during which the team regrouped in time to put forth its best effort since September in a 34-27 loss at South Carolina -- the only one of the team's (now six) SEC losses by single digits. The Commodores turned the positives from that game into a 14-point home win over Western Kentucky the following week.
Saturday's home game versus a Kentucky team (which had just dropped a heartbreaker) set up better for Vanderbilt than any conference game all year, and the Commodores continued to progress last week in practice. It was pretty much a "must-win" to turn the momentum and improvements started during their open date into a strong finish. Unfortunately for them, Kentucky successfully channeled their Ole Miss loss into anger and determination. When Kentucky's "A-game" met Vanderbilt's "A-game" on Saturday night, the Wildcats were 23 points better -- on Vandy's field, no less.
OK. So, what does that all of that have to do with Tennessee and LSU?
Butch Jones' inevitable ouster finally became official, and that's a huge weight off everybody at Tennessee. Plenty of interim coaches have led their squads to spirited finishes in such circumstances, and if Brady Hoke can do the same, Vanderbilt might be ripe for the picking in two weeks, especially if the Commodores can't upset surging Missouri in Week 12.
Sometimes it's just a matter of a "cloud lifting" and football suddenly becomes fun again. Sometimes the players just need to hear a new voice. Sometimes it's other things. In many circumstances, the firing of a head coach can be a spark. However, sometimes the team simply has such bad chemistry, it's just better to get the season over with as soon as possible. The coming week will bring plenty of clues as to whether or not Tennessee's players like being around each other enough to try to extend their season. If this bunch plays hard, shows progress and gains confidence against LSU, even in defeat, it won't be hard to imagine the Volunteers swallowing their seventh loss fairly easily, getting hungry for a win and treating the home revenge matchup with Vanderbilt as their bowl game.
At this point, we've no idea what's going to happen when LSU comes to Knoxville and, while we're certainly going to try, we don't anticipate having that figured out by kickoff. Without unexpectedly strong reads during the week, we'll probably pass on this game. Still, we'll be watching closely because playing LSU will reveal what this Tennessee team has left in it and what it will look like on the field in terms of structure, personnel, game plan, etc.
If Hoke can reunite and galvanize the staff and team while overseeing a few schematic improvements, it will show up this week even if the Volunteers can't pull the upset. For us, this is one of the most fascinating games of the week, but it's all about watching to see if Tennessee gives us the "buy sign" for next week and the finale against a fading Vanderbilt outfit.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
'Scoreboard-watching' is a November tradition among contending teams.
In last season's final week, Penn State trailed Michigan State 12-10 at the half, but it erupted in the second half for a 45-12 win. The Beaver Stadium crowd was exuberant in the first half when it learned that Ohio State had beaten Michigan. That result meant that Penn State had gotten the help it needed to once again control its own destiny. The Nittany Lions would claim the Big Ten East if it could close out the Spartans -- and by the end of halftime every man in the locker room knew it.
What happened in the second half was no accident, just as reports of a Michigan win would likely have given Michigan State a far better chance of holding its slim halftime lead. The power of one game's final score being able to impact a different game being played hundreds of miles away is part of a larger reality that's central to the sport. External stimuli constantly cause stark changes in performance. As the conference races wind down in November, you want to be on the lookout for teams that might, like Penn State, catch themselves scoreboard-watching -- for better or worse.
San Diego State needs Fresno State to lose twice but knows the Bulldogs have a tough outing in league power Boise State next week. Fresno State plays at Wyoming a full eight-and-a-half hours before San Diego State kicks it off as a big favorite versus Nevada. If the Bulldogs win in the afternoon to clinch the division, that would definitely reduce the appeal of backing the Aztecs that night.
Stanford kicks it off with Cal at 5 p.m. local time as huge 17-point favorites, and a Cardinal win would eliminate Washington from the Pac-12 race. The Huskies start just a few hours later in front of a home crowd that will be very interested in the score of the Big Game. Sure, the Huskies are still alive, but Stanford just beat them, so the team has likely accepted that they've already blown their shot. If Stanford is handling their business against Cal, we wouldn't advise making any second half bets on Washington.
If that ends up being the case, next week's Apple Cup would still determine the Pac-12 North, but it would be the Cardinal who could find themselves scoreboard-watching while trying to battle Notre Dame. Washington State would claim the division with an Apple Cup win, but a Washington win would see the Cardinal representing the North in San Francisco. Neither game's time has yet been set, but there's a good chance that the timing will work out for Stanford to have one eye on Seattle.
Know who controls their own destiny. Know who needs help. Know who might be keeping an eye on that help and what effect that might have. Be especially aware of the scoreboard-watching phenomenon in the Sun Belt race, which currently has four teams tied at the top -- and multiple weeks of play left to go since their title is not resolved by a conference championship game.
Needing just one other team to win or lose paints a simple picture that impacted teams can easily grasp, but for more complicated scenarios you need both an understanding of the league and division tiebreakers, as well as a read on the degree to which the players themselves are aware of the myriad implications that come with a wide range of "in play" games.
