Here are a list of teams that need to win out to get a bowl birth. I haven't looked at the stats on any of these games yet, but just throwing these out there for thought. Some of these teams are playing against teams that are also motivated for other reasons (revenge, conference aspirations, etc.), but what I have seen is that these type teams give plus efforts in these spots, and often cover or win outright as dogs. Next 2 weeks as well, where 5 win teams need one win for bowl game. There are probably a few teams out there as well that have 5 wins with a non-winnable game in the final week, but didn't research it.
MIAMI OHIO - Opponent Eastern Michigan (EM can't get to a bowl)
BUFFALO - Ball State (Ball State terrible, but number is high and Buffalo on road)
UNLV - New Mexico (NM trending downward, but UNLV on road)
RUTGERS AND INDIANA (playing each other)
ARKANSAS - (Mississippi State - wouldn't touch ARK with 10 foot pole)
LA MONROE - (Auburn - not winnable, but LAM is only 4-5 and has 2 more opportunities)
PITT - (VT - Pitt on road but VT fading)
ODU - (Rice - Rice is bad club)
LTECH - (UTEP - UTEP 0-10, UTEP at home, but LT is much better team)
SOUTH ALABAMA (Geo Southern - 0-9 - GS at home, but again, SALA better club)
DUKE (GT - tough one here....GT off big win over VT - Duke stopped Army but GT is a step up)
PURDUE (Iowa - hard to see PU going in there and winning)
SYRACUSE (Louisville - these 2 will wear out the scoreboard)
MARYLAND (Michigan State - MD is down to its 4th QB I think)
NEBRASKA (Penn State - hard to back them with the beating they took last week...plus PSU motivated as well)
TULANE (Houston - Tulane is DD home dog here)
NMST/LALAF (both 4-5 but playing each other)
TENNESSEE (LSU - LOL)
VANDERBILT (Missou - Another sizeable HD)
AIR FORCE (Boise State - AF tough to back this year)
MIAMI OHIO - Opponent Eastern Michigan (EM can't get to a bowl)
BUFFALO - Ball State (Ball State terrible, but number is high and Buffalo on road)
UNLV - New Mexico (NM trending downward, but UNLV on road)
RUTGERS AND INDIANA (playing each other)
ARKANSAS - (Mississippi State - wouldn't touch ARK with 10 foot pole)
LA MONROE - (Auburn - not winnable, but LAM is only 4-5 and has 2 more opportunities)
PITT - (VT - Pitt on road but VT fading)
ODU - (Rice - Rice is bad club)
LTECH - (UTEP - UTEP 0-10, UTEP at home, but LT is much better team)
SOUTH ALABAMA (Geo Southern - 0-9 - GS at home, but again, SALA better club)
DUKE (GT - tough one here....GT off big win over VT - Duke stopped Army but GT is a step up)
PURDUE (Iowa - hard to see PU going in there and winning)
SYRACUSE (Louisville - these 2 will wear out the scoreboard)
MARYLAND (Michigan State - MD is down to its 4th QB I think)
NEBRASKA (Penn State - hard to back them with the beating they took last week...plus PSU motivated as well)
TULANE (Houston - Tulane is DD home dog here)
NMST/LALAF (both 4-5 but playing each other)
TENNESSEE (LSU - LOL)
VANDERBILT (Missou - Another sizeable HD)
AIR FORCE (Boise State - AF tough to back this year)