4-6 Teams

Here are a list of teams that need to win out to get a bowl birth. I haven't looked at the stats on any of these games yet, but just throwing these out there for thought. Some of these teams are playing against teams that are also motivated for other reasons (revenge, conference aspirations, etc.), but what I have seen is that these type teams give plus efforts in these spots, and often cover or win outright as dogs. Next 2 weeks as well, where 5 win teams need one win for bowl game. There are probably a few teams out there as well that have 5 wins with a non-winnable game in the final week, but didn't research it.

MIAMI OHIO - Opponent Eastern Michigan (EM can't get to a bowl)
BUFFALO - Ball State (Ball State terrible, but number is high and Buffalo on road)
UNLV - New Mexico (NM trending downward, but UNLV on road)
RUTGERS AND INDIANA (playing each other)
ARKANSAS - (Mississippi State - wouldn't touch ARK with 10 foot pole)
LA MONROE - (Auburn - not winnable, but LAM is only 4-5 and has 2 more opportunities)
PITT - (VT - Pitt on road but VT fading)
ODU - (Rice - Rice is bad club)
LTECH - (UTEP - UTEP 0-10, UTEP at home, but LT is much better team)
SOUTH ALABAMA (Geo Southern - 0-9 - GS at home, but again, SALA better club)
DUKE (GT - tough one here....GT off big win over VT - Duke stopped Army but GT is a step up)
PURDUE (Iowa - hard to see PU going in there and winning)
SYRACUSE (Louisville - these 2 will wear out the scoreboard)
MARYLAND (Michigan State - MD is down to its 4th QB I think)
NEBRASKA (Penn State - hard to back them with the beating they took last week...plus PSU motivated as well)
TULANE (Houston - Tulane is DD home dog here)
NMST/LALAF (both 4-5 but playing each other)
TENNESSEE (LSU - LOL)
VANDERBILT (Missou - Another sizeable HD)
AIR FORCE (Boise State - AF tough to back this year)

Great info thanks! But you are right need to do more, 5 win teams that need to win this week because the one after this is tough sledding.
Best are teams at home against teams that have been eliminated last week...


(Missouri for example also needs a win they have 5 wins play Arkansas next on the road so this one is important)

Heatwave said:

Here are a list of teams that need to win out to get a bowl birth. I haven't looked at the stats on any of these games yet, but just throwing these out there for thought. Some of these teams are playing against teams that are also motivated for other reasons (revenge, conference aspirations, etc.), but what I have seen is that these type teams give plus efforts in these spots, and often cover or win outright as dogs. Next 2 weeks as well, where 5 win teams need one win for bowl game. There are probably a few teams out there as well that have 5 wins with a non-winnable game in the final week, but didn't research it.

MIAMI OHIO - Opponent Eastern Michigan (EM can't get to a bowl)
BUFFALO - Ball State (Ball State terrible, but number is high and Buffalo on road)
UNLV - New Mexico (NM trending downward, but UNLV on road)
RUTGERS AND INDIANA (playing each other)
ARKANSAS - (Mississippi State - wouldn't touch ARK with 10 foot pole)
LA MONROE - (Auburn - not winnable, but LAM is only 4-5 and has 2 more opportunities)
PITT - (VT - Pitt on road but VT fading)
ODU - (Rice - Rice is bad club)
LTECH - (UTEP - UTEP 0-10, UTEP at home, but LT is much better team)
SOUTH ALABAMA (Geo Southern - 0-9 - GS at home, but again, SALA better club)
DUKE (GT - tough one here....GT off big win over VT - Duke stopped Army but GT is a step up)
PURDUE (Iowa - hard to see PU going in there and winning)
SYRACUSE (Louisville - these 2 will wear out the scoreboard)






MARYLAND (Michigan State - MD is down to its 4th QB I think)
NEBRASKA (Penn State - hard to back them with the beating they took last week...plus PSU motivated as well)
TULANE (Houston - Tulane is DD home dog here)
NMST/LALAF (both 4-5 but playing each other)
TENNESSEE (LSU - LOL)
VANDERBILT (Missou - Another sizeable HD)
AIR FORCE (Boise State - AF tough to back this year)

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Heatwave,..just a side note,...Army beat Duke,and you have Duke stopping Army,......gl pal,....love to read your information

thekeyman said:

Heatwave,..just a side note,...Army beat Duke,and you have Duke stopping Army,......gl pal,....love to read your information

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Yes, Army did win, but Duke did pretty well against the option....held Army to under 300 yards of offense total. Poorly worded on my part for sure. You may get max effort from Duke this week, but GT may be more difficult to stop.

Serbone said:

Great info thanks! But you are right need to do more, 5 win teams that need to win this week because the one after this is tough sledding.
Best are teams at home against teams that have been eliminated last week...


(Missouri for example also needs a win they have 5 wins play Arkansas next on the road so this one is important)

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Yes, more research needed on 5 win teams and remaining schedule....in Missou case, they are favored against Vandy on road, and then have Arkansas on road as you stated. Vandy will also be a "Max Effort" team as they are listed at 4-6 and need to win as well.

5 Win Teams:

AKRON - Ohio - Ohio motivated to win their half of MAC, but coming off big win over Toledo - Akron home to Kent State next weekend
MTSU/WKY - Playing each other
TEMPLE - UCF - UCF motivated with undefeated season, but may be peeking to SFLA next weekend - Temple at Tulsa following weekend
TEXAS - WV - Tough road game - TT on deck
MINNESOTA - NW - Minny has Wisconsin following weekend, so big one here for them.
TEXAS TECH - Home to TCU - with Texas on deck
ARKANSAS STATE - Not counting them, as they have 3 games left including this one
UTAH STATE - Hawaii at home - at Air Force next weekend
ARIZONA STATE - At Oregon State - home with rival Arizona next weekend
KANSAS STATE - At Oklahoma State - home with Iowa State next
OREGON - Home with Arizona - Oregon State on deck
OLE MISS - Home with Texas A&M - Egg bowl with Bulldogs next weekend
BC - At Uconn - At Syracuse Next
UCLA - At USC - Home with Cal Next Weekend
CAL - At Stanford - At UCLA next
Utah - At Washington - Home Colorado next

Maybe as significant dogs these plays can work. I don't now about in general Have you kept any record on such games? Doesn't seem to work for playoffs in he NFL that is for sure

H.wave........appreciate the info.........good luck this week...........indy

Nice info, definitely a good angle. Good spot to fade some teams in a sandwich game with rivalry games on deck.

Thanks all. Two that I like are Old Dominion -8 and Buffalo -20.

Haven't tracked this at all....but I have seen a lot of cases where bowl game possibility brings out best in team.

HW

Heatwave thanks for taking the time to compile this info.

It works fairly well, a 5 win team that needs the win this week, especially if at home, against a team that already knows it is going to a middle bowl or even better a team that is out of it already and might quit when behind. Look also for a team this week against a bad opponent that is playing a very good team next week (especially on the road) and knows this game is an critical opportunity.

Also 4 win teams that have a reasonable shot at winning this week and next week. Coaches really want to get in bowls to get more practice and assess underclassmen for next year. SOME 4 win teams that play a HUGE opponent next week might know it is futile and not go all out with everything they have so watch out for 4 win teams in certain spot.

NO I do not track all that but I have made these wagers over the years successfully. This week and next week are GREAT opportunities. Do not bet on all of them or at least bet more on teams in good situations and less on those that you are wary of...

(the best IMO is NCAA conference tournament hoops before the big tourney, a BUBBLE team that needs to win a few, is a dog against a team already in a 3-4-5-6-8 type seed or so and they do not care that much)

Serbone said:

It works fairly well, a 5 win team that needs the win this week, especially if at home, against a team that already knows it is going to a middle bowl or even better a team that is out of it already and might quit when behind. Look also for a team this week against a bad opponent that is playing a very good team next week (especially on the road) and knows this game is an critical opportunity.

Also 4 win teams that have a reasonable shot at winning this week and next week. Coaches really want to get in bowls to get more practice and assess underclassmen for next year. SOME 4 win teams that play a HUGE opponent next week might know it is futile and not go all out with everything they have so watch out for 4 win teams in certain spot.

NO I do not track all that but I have made these wagers over the years successfully. This week and next week are GREAT opportunities. Do not bet on all of them or at least bet more on teams in good situations and less on those that you are wary of...

(the best IMO is NCAA conference tournament hoops before the big tourney, a BUBBLE team that needs to win a few, is a dog against a team already in a 3-4-5-6-8 type seed or so and they do not care that much)

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Agree 100%. Bowl games are huge for teams, both coaches and players (they get some decent "goody bags" I think plus in some cases opportunities to travel as well as seniors going out with one more game). Emotional handicapping angles are much bigger for college teams than pro for sure, and although I would not play every one, it does yield some additional edge, especially in cases where the team that needs the win is statistically better.