Monday 11/20/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

Pesos · Nov 15, 2017

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Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

Soccer

Italy - Serie A

2:45pm ET

Verona v Bologna

Last Head-to-Heads at Verona:
0-2 (Bologna win)
0-0
0-1 (Bologna win)
5-4 (Verona win)

Recent Form:
Verona: 1-4-1
Bologna: 2-4

KEY STAT: Both teams are on four-game losing streaks

EXPERT VERDICT: Bologna were left scratching their heads how they failed to beat Crotone last time, but they can snap their losing run against Verona. Three of Bologna’s four wins this season have been away from home, while Verona’s solitary success so far was against rock-bottom Benevento, who are incredibly poor.

RECOMMENDATION: Bologna (2)

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

Soccer

England - Premier League

3pm ET

Brighton v Stoke

Referee: Lee Mason

Last Head-to-Heads at Brighton:
1-5 (Stoke win)
0-1 (Stoke win)
1-2 (Stoke win)
1-0 (Brighton win)

Recent Form:
Brighton: 3-1-2
Stoke: 2-3-1

KEY STAT: Only seven first-half goals have been scored in Brighton’s 11 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Defensive excellence was the hallmark of Brighton’s promotion charge last term but the goals have started to flow with Glenn Murray inspiring recent away wins at West Ham and Swansea. The Seagulls have also claimed creditable home draws with Everton and Southampton and, having already beaten West Brom and Newcastle at the Amex, should be confident against an underwhelming Stoke. The Potters claimed a much-needed 1-0 win at Watford in their last away fixture. However, they had just 30 per cent of possession.

RECOMMENDATION: Brighton (2)

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

Soccer

Spain - La Liga

3pm ET

Eibar v Real Betis

Last Head-to-Heads at Eibar:
3-1 (Eibar win)
1-1

Recent Form:
Eibar: 0-4-2
Real Betis: 2-2-2

KEY STAT: Eibar have scored only six goals in 11 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Eibar are struggling to score goals, struggling to keep clean sheets and the upshot is a plunge down La Liga courtesy of a two-month winless run. They’ve at least found the net in their last three but they look vulnerable against anyone, and Betis, who have already won at the Bernabeu this term, will fancy their chances.

RECOMMENDATION: Real Betis (2)

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: 3

#7 BANNER WAVE (ML=4/1)
#2 MORE THAN TREASURE (ML=5/2)
#4 PERFECT PARTY GIRL (ML=30/1)

BANNER WAVE - I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. If you review the PP's for this mount, you'll see she has recorded the top Equibase speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat effort in this event and this horse has a superb chance to win. Could be a potential overlay in this race at odds of 4/1. Finished fourth in last race at Belmont Park but was close at the finish line. Horse has improved at least 2 speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that trend to continue in today's race. This filly recorded a good fig of 79 in her last clash. That speed fig should be high enough to score in today's event. MORE THAN TREASURE - Ran last out against a tougher field at Belmont Park. The move down the class ladder should suit her well. I believe Weaver is making a good move here. This filly can only profit from the shorter distance. This filly has the top turf fig in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance. This one has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 51 to 76 to 79 in succession. That 79 fig this filly earned in her last race tells me she's a key player this time. PERFECT PARTY GIRL - Filly has shown some early speed. This shorter trip should be better for her. She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track in the last race. Under better track conditions, has a good chance right here in this race. Filly is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big performance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 LADYOFTHEHIERARCHY (ML=9/2), #6 MARIE JOELLE (ML=6/1), #14 GRAND LASSIE (ML=8/1),

LADYOFTHEHIERARCHY - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this front-runner. Many other thoroughbreds would have to scratch to help her hopes. This pony ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that number. MARIE JOELLE - The Brain cautions me to stay away from horses in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in sprint contests recently. Speed kills. Plenty of early speed in this affair compromises this equine's chances. GRAND LASSIE - Will be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 BANNER WAVE on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,7] with [2,4,7] with [2,4,6,7,15] with [2,4,6,7,15] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[2,4,7] with [2,4,7] with [2,4,6,7] with [2,4,6,7,14,15] with [2,4,6,7,14,15] Total Cost: $72

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 8

First Half $2 Late Daily Double (Races 8 &9) $2 Trifecta $2 Exacta $1 Trifecta Box $1 Exacta Box ($.50) Superfecta

Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $6,800 • Post: 9:34P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 20, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HOT CROSS BUNS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days. EXTREME EXCESS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SYRISONG: Horse has a Tr ackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. JURY WISE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's th ird or fourth start after a layoff.
5
HOT CROSS BUNS
2/1

9/2
1
EXTREME EXCESS
5/1

6/1
7
SYRISONG
5/1

8/1
8
JURY WISE
8/5

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
ZERO OUT
3

12/1
Front-runner
73

74

79.0

47.8

40.3
8
JURY WISE
8

8/5
Front-runner
75

68

74.0

60.4

54.9
6
NANJING ROAD
6

8/1
Front-runner
66

65

65.8

55.0

42.5
7
SYRISONG
7

5/1
Alternator/Front-runner
79

71

58.4

59.8

52.3
5
HOT CROSS BUNS
5

2/1
Stalker
78

73

63.8

70.8

67.3
1
EXTREME EXCESS
1

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
81

76

52.4

70.0

65.0
4
IZY POWER
4

50/1
Alternator/Non-contender
57

50

53.2

34.2

18.2
2
PENRY
2

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
59

52

35.6

39.8

26.3

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 1

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double

Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $29,800 • Post: 12:45
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DECADENT DOC is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DECADENT DOC: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WISDOM OF THE DUKE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3
DECADENT DOC
8/1

5/2
2
WISDOM OF THE DUKE
3/1

4/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
DECADENT DOC
3

8/1
Front-runner
84

85

82.5

77.6

73.1
2
WISDOM OF THE DUKE
2

3/1
Front-runner
79

76

64.5

73.0

70.0
5
BROADWAY MAN
5

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
84

80

58.4

65.6

56.1
6
WILD SUNNY
6

5/1
Trailer
72

66

73.9

41.7

34.2
4
MAGNA MAN
4

5/2
Trailer
77

80

56.2

71.1

63.6
1
BLINGIN IT BACK
1

7/2
Alternator/Non-contender
65

56

55.6

42.4

32.4

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $5300 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 CARD PLAYER JACK 9/5

# 4 D G MAN 2/1

# 2 TORO JOHN 8/1

I've got to go with CARD PLAYER JACK. His earnings per start in dirt route races alone makes you take a look at him. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Zunino will probably have this gelding in excellent position to win the outing. Should go to the front end and should never look back. D G MAN - Shows solid speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. TORO JOHN - Looks to have a respectable class edge based on the latest company kept. Have to love when any horse makes a quick turnaround.

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 NINEOTHREEFIVE 12/1

# 6 WAVY BABY 10/1

# 1 LITTLE LU 7/5

I think about NINEOTHREEFIVE in this contest and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Entries trained by Linder in dirt sprint races are frequently reliable. WAVY BABY - The average class figure of 23 makes this entrant hard to beat. LITTLE LU - Is a key contender - given the 60 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. With a nice class rating average of 65, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group of horses.

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating: 3

#4 LADY TAM (ML=4/1)
#3 PRETTY EXPENSIVE (ML=3/1)

LADY TAM - Story enters this horse in a spot where she should fit well based on her last 2 speed ratings. Canchari's agent must look forward to anytime Story gives them a mount; win percent together is outstanding. I like the case that this filly's last speed rating, 75, is tops in this group. PRETTY EXPENSIVE - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this filly's PPs. Almost always in the money. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a sharp race last out within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DON'T TELL JUDY (ML=2/1), #5 TOP LADY MARGIE (ML=5/2), #1 MY EXPRESSION (ML=5/1),

DON'T TELL JUDY - Awfully hard to wager on this mount when she hasn't been showing any signs of life of late. TOP LADY MARGIE - Hasn't been close at all recently. MY EXPRESSION - Awfully hard to wager on this pony when she hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently. The Brain always warns me to keep away from horses in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in sprint races recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #4 LADY TAM on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

Pesos · Nov 20, 2017

Valuline at Zia Park

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 7 (Monday November 20, 2017)

TYLERS DIXIE CHICK
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

ZIA-7 1mile DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $14,000
P# ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

2 TYLERS DIXIE CHICK 8/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
7 PERTY SALTY GAL 6/1 22% 7/2
5 MISSCHARLYPOTATOES 15/1 14% 6/1