Sunday Service Plays 11/19/17

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Ill be back with Marc L TOP NFL Play on Friday. ( Can someone get Creole 5 Star NFL November OVER The Total? )
 

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Ill be back with Marc L TOP NFL Play on Friday. ( Can someone get Creole 5 Star NFL November OVER The Total? )
  1. 460 MIN / 459 LOS Over 45.5 Pinnacle
  1. triple-dime bet
Analysis:


Sunday, Nov. 19th
#459-460
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL


We had to officially hold out on this BEST BET until Wednesday. That’s because Minnesota was going to hold off on naming their starting quarterback until Wednesday morning. As expected, we got the get that we wanted all along… and we can now officially proceed to 3* BEST BET status. If Teddy Bridgewater was named the starter, we would have considered passing in this game. Or at the very least, downgrading it to a 2* or less play. We have nothing against Bridgewater. In fact, he’s on my KEEPER Fantasy Football team and I expect great things from him in 2018 and beyond. But this play is much stronger thanks to the career resurgence of Case Keenum at QB. He is ranked as the 3rd BEST QB in the NFL in 2017 from a ‘Total QBR’ perspective of 72.6. The only guys who are ahead of Keenum are Deshaun Watson (out for the year) and Dak Prescott. He’s off his best game of the season last week against the Redskins. Keenum threw 3 TDS… had 304 passing yards… a QBR rating of 117.0… and led the 7-2 Vikings to 38 points. He’s REASON #1 that Minnesota averages 60 MORE YPG on offense compared to last year… are ranked in the Top Ten in offense… and are also scoring almost 7 PPG more than last year. And he has a little bit of an AX to GRIND against this week’s opponent. It was Keenun that was benched by the Rams last year in favor of our next quarterback. That would be 2nd-year guy Jared Goff. Another QB that’s been playing out of his mind as of late. A QB rating of 125.4 in last week’s win over Houston… and a QB rating of 146.8 two weeks ago in the big road win over the NY Giants. A game in which we cashed a pretty easy play on the OVER. After struggling last season (he went 0-7) in his rookie year, Goff was basically rebuilt overnight when new Head Coach Sean McVay came to Los Angeles. He now directs the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (32.9 ppg compared to only 14 ppg last year!). Golf’s 2385 passing yards, 16 TDS, and 101.5 QB rating (the conventional scale) all rank amongst the Top Ten in the league. During the off-season, Goff worked with QB coach and ‘guru’ Tom House. A guy who also happens to train guys named Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Nice company there!


We’ve been selective with our Ram OVERS this season, and have yet to lose a game. In Week 2, it was an OVER winner in the Rams / Redskins game. That followed with the OVER winner against Dallas (our Sept GOM)… a OVER winner vs the Jaguars… and a 3* OVER winner against the Giants. Sharp OU bettors have stayed away from Ram OVERS at home. That makes sense, given average of only 41.9 IN Los Angeles. But put the Rams on the road, and you’ve been rockin’ and rollin’ (4-1 O/U / 58.0 combined PPG). We also see that this is one of those WEST Time Zone teams traveling east and playing in a Sunday 1:00n ET early kickoff. If you’ve been following our Totals Plays in the last 5-6 years, then you already know how we feel about high-scoring results in those games. This one is NOT a ‘true’ West to East OVER candidate, but its close enough for us to see more points than expected. On the flip side, the Vikings DO indeed trend UNDER in division play (0-3 O/U THIS season / 4-16 O/U last 4 years). But teepee gone 5-1 O/U in NON-division games this season… including a perfect 4-0 O/U in their last four (vs Washington, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay). The average OU margin in those games has been +12.8 ppg…


Everything from the database is fast and furious. It starts with the fact that this is a NFC vs NFC game… with a low pointspread (MIN is -2.5 to -3)… with extreme SHOOTOUT potential… 36-12-1 O/U last four years and already 8-1 O/U THIS season: All GAME THREE or greater NFC non-division conference games (RAMS @ VIKINGS)… with the host favored by only 5 points or less. To tighten things up even further, we note that these games have gone an amazing 16-1 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 47 points.


Next up,we look for later-season games when both teams have very good W/L records (both LA and MIN are 7-2 SU)… 26-9-2 O/U since 1997 / 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All GAME SIX or greater .750 > teams (MIN) vs a .750 > non-division opponent (LAR).. when the OU line is > 43 points. These games have gone an amazing 16-2-1 O/U when the home team is favored by < 10 pts (Like the VIKINGS).


Last week was a good one to stay off a Rams OVER. No one could would expect the QB-challenged HoustonTexans to go toe-to-toe with the hot Rams. And they didn’t. The final score was 3 to 7… 12-6-1 O/U since 2011: All non-division teams off a SU win in which they SCORED 31 > points and ALLOWED 7 < points (RAMS). These teams have gone 8-0 O/U in the last two years.


Next up for the host Vikings is a Turkey Day THUƒRSDAY affair against the Detroit Lions..
(1) 11-1 O/U last 3 years: All non-division conference short favorite of < 4 points (VIKINGS) before a Thursday Game the next week…
(2) 12-2 O/U since 2004 / 9-1 O/U in non-division play: All NFL teams BEFORE playing the DETROIT LIONS on Thanksgiving (VIKINGS).

 

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LV Betting Syndicate:

NFL:
Atlanta +3
philadelphia -4.5
denver -2.5
new england/oakland over 54.5
detroit -3
detroit/chicago over 40.5
green bay +2
minnesota -2
 

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Clarification: Marc L NFL Denver - 2.5 is NOT a LATE Star Rated Play. It is the Mid Week Alert Newsletter Play. It looks really good from here.
 

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Creole's Sunday Night NFL Play - UNDER 48 Philly / Dallas. ( Anyone have Creole's NFL Dog Of The Day?)
 

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KEN THOMSON | NFL MONEY LINESUN, 11/19/17 - 1:00 PM
  1. 460 MIN (-130) Westgate vs 459 LOS
  1. triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I like both these teams a lot this season....quite frankly it's hard not to. Case Keenum knows that Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play but he doesn't need that motivation. This Vikings team will have a MAJOR EDGE because of the Home Field advantage. On a neutral field I'm not sure who I'd take but to me the Vikes have one of the top 3 Home Field advantages in the League!
I could name all the different players for both teams in a two paragraph write up but the main reason I love this game in the location. The Vikes already beat New Orleans so if they win this one and Philly drops another, Minnesota could end up with the inside track to Home Field throughout the play-offs.
This could finally be the year for the Purple & Gold but they need this one to start sealing up the NFC North. Minnesota by 7 or more!

Pick Made: Nov 17 2017 12:29AM PST

 

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Any chance anyone can land Wunderdog for tomorrow? he has a GOM and another big play tomorrow.
 

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Randall the handle
BEST BETS

Rams (7-2) at Vikings (7-2)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 2½
We believe one squad holds the best hand while the other could be bluffing. The Rams have taken the league by storm with previously maligned QB Jared Goff catapulting his offence to the top scoring unit in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. Los Angeles’ defence keeps improving under the astute guidance of defensive guru Wade Philips. The Rams have quietly allowed the third fewest points per game with no opponents reaching 18 points in L.A.’s past five games. Add the talents of RB Todd Gurley and the Rams are the real deal. The Vikings are on a roll of their own, winning four straight, but we still have some doubts. Five of Minny’s seven wins have come against losing teams. The other two wins were against the Saints on opening week and versus a Brett Hundley-led Green Bay squad. Against winners Pittsburgh and Detroit, the Purple Gang lost 26-9 and 14-7 respectively. QB Case Keenum scares no one, especially not the team he threw nine touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions for a year ago.
TAKING: RAMS +2½

Lions (5-4) at Bears (3-6)
LINE: DETROIT by 3
Most will be down on the Bears after failing to win and cover at home last week to undermanned Green Bay. Conversely, Detroit has won consecutive games including a victory two weeks ago against the same Packers squad. The market place demands that Detroit is favoured here, but that’s how value is created and we believe it belongs with the home team. The Leos can be exciting to watch, but they rank significantly lower than their hosts today in nearly every defensive category. Most notably is Detroit’s 22nd-place ranking in total yards allowed compared to Chicago’s ninth-place position. The Lions are also in a vulnerable spot as they must suit up again on Thursday for their annual Thanksgiving Day game when they’ll host a big showdown with first-place Minnesota. Detroit has managed just three covers in past 12 prior to their holiday game. Bears have already taken down Steelers and Panthers on this field. They can certainly handle these guys.
TAKING: BEARS +3
Bengals (3-6) at Broncos (3-6)
LINE: DENVER by 2½
Let’s do some comparison shopping here. Less than a month ago, the Broncos and Jaguars shared equal 3-3 records. Both teams have good defences, wretched quarterbacks and a player or two that can be an offensive threat. Skip ahead to today where Denver is 3-6 while Jacksonville is 6-3. How did this happen to two similar squads? Here’s how. The Jaguars faced the Colts (3-7) before home wins against the Bengals (3-6) and Chargers (3-6) respectively. Meantime, the Broncos were seven-point underdogs in three successive games, all defeats, when they played at Kansas City (6-3), at Philadelphia (8-1) and home to the Patriots (7-2). Our guess is that if you switched schedules these past three games, we’d be looking at a flip-flop in records between the Jags and Broncos. Enter the Bengals into our fray. As mentioned, they got spanked 23-7 at Jacksonville as a 5½-point underdog. Shouldn’t this pointspread be at least the same as that one? Denver is home against a lame Cincinnati team, spotting less than a field goal. We’ll gladly jump on that.
TAKING: BRONCOS -2½
THE REST
Chiefs (6-3) at Giants (1-8)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 10½
Most teams look forward to Sundays. The Giants dread them. It’s a season lost for the G-Men and changes await, most likely with coach Ben McAdoo being the first to go. In the meantime, there are games to play. To make a convincing case for the Giants here would just sound foolish. So we turn to the line. Double-digit road favourites are a path to the poor house, no matter how big a discrepancy there might be in talent (see: Steelers/Colts last week), having covered just eight times in their past 24 attempts when the road team is spotting 10 or more. Let’s also not ignore that the Chiefs had lost three of four prior to their bye and still could be sluggish as they return to the field, especially against an uninspiring opponent.
TAKING:
LINE: MIAMI Even
At least Miami isn’t in prime time this week. While the Fish have been as lackluster as is humanly possible, this price still feels cheap when just needing a win to earn a cover. These are the hapless Bucs visiting and not only have they struggled all season long, they arrive here with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. Fitzpatrick was able to lead the team to a 15-10 yawner over the Jets last week, but that one had Tampa as the home underdog to the subpar New York club. Prior to that victory, the Bucs had dropped five straight while failing to cover in six consecutive games, including a home contest to the Giants. Fitzpatrick is commonly a disaster waiting to happen and his side cannot be considered when priced in this range as a visitor.
TAKING: DOLPHINS Even
Ravens (4-5) at Packers (5-4)
LINE: BALTIMORE by 2
What if the Packers win here to get to 6-4 and do the same to Cleveland and Tampa in two of next three games before Aaron Rodgers possibly returns around Christmas with a playoff spot being achievable? Point being, Green Bay is not throwing in the towel just yet. They found a bit of a rhythm last week with a win at Chicago after the coaching staff loosened the leash on young QB Brett Hundley as he threw wisely while utilizing the clock well. Same approach should work against lame Ravens, a team void of offensive aptitude with its 32nd-ranked passing game. Baltimore had covered just three of past 11 when leaving home and while there is no Rodgers to contend with, the Ravens hardly warrant being a road fave at Lambeau.
TAKING: PACKERS +2
Cardinals (4-5) at Texans (3-6)
LINE: HOUSTON by 1
Blaine Gabbert vs. Tom Savage. Lovely. Since we must make a selection, we can only go one way as no sane individual can take Savage as a favourite, no matter how small the pointspread. The inexperienced backup was responsible for four turnovers last week with two interceptions and two fumbles in his team’s 33-7 thumping at the Rams. Seems Gabbert will likely replace an injured Drew Stanton for Arizona with the disparity between those two being minimal, unlike Houston’s colossal step down from Deshaun Watson to Savage. The mental frame of the Texans has suffered since losing their dynamic young pivot and a rested Arizona team returning to the field after 10 days’ rest should have enough to take care of its demoralized host.
TAKING: CARDINALS +1
Jaguars (6-3) at Browns (0-9)
LINE: JACKSONVILLE by 7½
There are few consistent teams in the NFL. One team that you can’t count on from week to week are the Browns. Winless in nine tries so far, this bumbling squad finds unique ways not only to lose, but also to fail at covering spreads. It is extremely difficult to suggest wagering legal tender on this squad. It would take a rare situation to spot this many road points with the Jaguars, a team that will not only be a road fave for just the second time in its past 45 away games, but is being asked to win by more than a touchdown to earn a cover. Risky, we know, but the Browns are that unreliable while the Jags have won three straight and can ill afford to take their foot off the gas pedal as they battle the Titans for the AFC South.
TAKING: JAGUARS –7½
Redskins (4-5) at Saints (7-2)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 8
Tough to fade a Saints team that is clicking on all cylinders like this group is, but with such success comes inflated lines. Public perception and tendencies are a key element for the guys making the lines and with New Orleans on a current seven-game win streak, few have the courage to oppose them especially against a visitor that has dropped three of four as the Redskins have. However, if we look at Washington’s recent sked, we find its past four games were against top NFC contenders Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle and Minnesota. Only once in that set were the ’Skins receiving this many points and that was when they were +8 at Seattle before covering in a tightly fought 17-14 loss. We also catch the Saints in a dangerous spot after glowing in a 47-10 blowout of Buffalo last week and with next two opponents being the Rams and Falcons.
TAKING: REDSKINS +8
Bills (5-4) at Chargers (3-6)
LINE: LA CHARGERS by 4
Strange one here. When lines came out, the Chargers were listed as a 4-point favourite. Then it was announced that rookie QB Nathan Peterson would start for Buffalo in place of Tyrod Taylor. But the line never moved. While Taylor isn’t among the elite throwers in this league, he certainly has to be worth more than a rookie quarterback. Peterman looked comfortable in New Orleans last week when he replaced Taylor, but that was in a mop-up situation after the Bills fell miles behind the Saints. The Chargers have an unheralded pass defence, currently ranking sixth overall and we don’t see how a first time starter on a team that is undermanned offensively can compete here. Expect Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram to make Peterman’s debut a miserable one and for the Bolts to take care of business rather easily.
TAKING: CHARGERS –4
Patriots (7-2) vs. Raiders (4-5) at Mexico City, Mexico
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 7
We think New England would have been a six-point fave in Oakland. So how are the Patriots only -7 at a neutral site? These are two teams headed in opposite directions with the Raiders dropping five of previous seven while the Pats have won seven of last eight. While New England’s defence struggled at the start of the season, perhaps attributed to some new faces acclimating to the champs’ methods, the Patriots have not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent during the past five games. Meanwhile, Oakland ranks in the low to mid 20s in nearly all defensive categories and with a 22nd-ranked offence (by yardage per game), it is difficult for the Raiders to compete with top clubs such as this one. Oakland has just one cover in previous seven away and hardly figure to change that around versus today’s strong opponent.
TAKING: PATRIOTS –7
Eagles (8-1) at Cowboys (5-4)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 4
The Eagles are soaring while the Cowboys are suddenly losing altitude with the latter immediately feeling the effects of star runner Ezekiel Elliott’s absence after losing 27-7 to Atlanta last week. Even so, we are not inclined to be giving these points away in such a pivotal game for host Dallas. This is a divisional battle on a big stage. The Cowboys could have been distracted last week as they glanced ahead to this one. We’re not going to knock the Eagles. They are good on both sides of the ball and they arrive here rested. We are simply going to respond to the pointspread which has the public spotting this price like they know the result. Dallas will fight to the end and there is enough room for them to cover through the back door should that situation arise.
TAKING: COWBOYS +4
Falcons (5-4) at Seahawks (6-3)
LINE: SEATTLE by 3
Falcons could be regaining their mojo after a 27-7 thumping of the Cowboys last week. It may also help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson is being observed for concussion issues as the crafty QB has his team ranked second overall in the passing game at 267 per game. Additionally, Seattle suffered a huge injury on defence when CB Richard Sherman was lost for the season in his team’s win over Arizona last Thursday. Despite the home team’s issues, prefer that side to an Atlanta team that has just one road cover this season when slipping by the Lions 30-26 as a 3-point road favourite. As visitors, the Falcons were only able to muster up 24 points when visiting New England and Carolina respectively. This trip provides similar competition and until we see a continuous improvement by the Birds, we’ll fade them at this bargain price.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS –3

 

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