How Vegas ranks top 25 CFB teams
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 12 of the college football season is here, which brings another edition of my weekly Vegas college football power rankings. I have nine sets of power ratings, and I will supply the one that is closest to what Las Vegas uses. For comparison's sake, I also provide the ratings from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, ESPN's FPI ratings and my average game grades from philsteele.com. These game grades take into account this year's stats (passing and rushing yards, offensive and defensive points and the strength of opponent played).
Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's top 25:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (rating 143.2)
Alabama is the clear top spot in all four sets of power ratings. The Tide were favored by 14 points at Mississippi State and won by only seven, so they lose a few decimal points off their rating for a second straight week.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (rating 140.8)
Westgate, FPI and my average game grade all had the Buckeyes at No. 2, despite the fact that they lost big at Iowa. They were favored by 17 over Michigan State, which many questioned, but they dominated the game to the tune of a 48-3 win. That got them back a good portion of the points they lost last week.
3. Oklahoma Sooners (rating 138.6)
The Sooners were favored by only 6.5 points against TCU and rolled to an 18-point win, leading 38-14 in the fourth quarter. That bumped them up almost two points and moved them up in the rankings. They are No. 3 at Westgate and for my average game grade but only No. 8 in the FPI rankings.
4. Clemson Tigers (rating 138.2)
The Tigers won by 17 over the weekend, right around where Vegas had them. The game was a little closer than the score, so there is just a minor change to the power rating results. They are No. 4 at Westgate, FPI and in my average game grades.
5. Auburn Tigers (rating 137.5)
The Tigers are another two-loss team ranked higher than some unbeaten teams. They were 2.5-point 'dogs in Week 11 but then dominated No. 1 Georgia 40-17. This system has safeguards to overreactions, so four points is about the maximum move -- but they almost got there. Auburn is No. 5 at Westgate and FPI.
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (rating 137.4)
Penn State was favored by 31 points this past week and won by 29, but a slight 304-200 yardage edge drops the Nittany Lions a little bit. They are No. 3 in the FPI rankings but No. 6 at Westgate and No. 7 in my average game grades.
7. Georgia Bulldogs (rating 134.9)
Georgia was a slight favorite at Auburn and lost against a very good team in a tough environment, but the final score of 40-17 has them taking a good-sized dip in the ratings. They are No. 7 at both FPI and Westgate and No. 8 in my average game grades.
8. Wisconsin Badgers (rating 134.8)
The Badgers easily beat Iowa 38-14 on Saturday, and even more impressively, they held the Hawkeyes to 66 total yards of offense one week after Iowa had 487 yards and 55 points against Ohio State. The Badgers move up one spot and sit at No. 8 at Westgate and No. 10 both in my average game grades and with FPI.
9. Miami Hurricanes (rating 134.7)
This is the one in which my Vegas ratings most differ from Westgate's. After their big win as 3-point home 'dogs versus Notre Dame, the Canes move into the top 10. Westgate has them at only No. 13, and FPI seats them at No. 12.
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (rating 134.3)
The Irish lost 41-8 at Miami as slight favorites, so they take a drop in the rankings. Notre Dame is No. 10 at Westgate and No. 9 in FPI.
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (rating 133.8)
The Cowboys were 6.5-point road favorites and won at Iowa State by seven, so there's no change in the power ratings. They are No. 9 at Westgate and No. 11 with FPI, but they actually rate No. 6 in my average game grades.
12. Washington Huskies (rating 132.2)
The Huskies were small favorites at Stanford and lost by eight, so they drop out of the top 10 but remain barely ahead of USC. Westgate has them at No. 11, and my average game grades have them at No. 12, while FPI has them up at No. 6.
13. USC Trojans (rating 131.5)
USC is another team that did exactly as expected by Vegas, as it was favored by 13.5 and beat Colorado by 14. The Trojans actually led 28-7 and 38-17. Since USC had a stretch of underperformances earlier this season, it ranks lower with FPI and my average game grades at No. 17, but Westgate has the Trojans at No. 12.
14. TCU Horned Frogs (rating 131.2)
Westgate has TCU at No. 14, FPI registers it at No. 13, and my average game grades have it sitting at No. 11. The Horned Frogs lost by more than expected to Oklahoma, so they drop a couple of spots.
15. Michigan Wolverines (rating 129.3)
Michigan was favored by 16.5 points in Week 11 and beat Maryland by 25, so the Wolverines continue to climb in the ratings. Westgate has them at No. 15, and FPI positions them at No. 20.
16. Stanford Cardinal (rating 127.5)
Stanford was barely hanging on to a top-25 spot after a couple poor efforts versus Oregon State and Washington State. Make the Cardinal a home 'dog, and they upset No. 8 Washington with a 406-325 yardage edge. Westgate has them at No. 17, while FPI ranks them at No. 14.
17. LSU Tigers (rating 127.4)
LSU was forgotten after it lost to Troy, but the Tigers have won five in a row versus the Vegas number and continue to climb in the power ratings. Westgate has them at No. 18, and FPI lists them at No. 19.
18. Mississippi State Bulldogs (rating 126.5)
Only in the Vegas power ratings can a team lose and jump over a team that won by 25. Mississippi State was a two-touchdown 'dog versus Alabama, but lost by only seven and moves past UCF. The Bulldogs are No. 19 at Westgate, No. 16 with FPI and No. 14 in my average game grades.
19. Virginia Tech Hokies (rating 126.4)
The Hokies lost, but by only five points as 3-point favorites, so they did not drop as much as I originally expected. Westgate has them at No. 16, and FPI has them at No. 15.
20. NC State Wolfpack (rating 126.3)
The Wolfpack were favored by a field goal in Week 11 and won by three, so there is no change in their ratings. They are No. 21 at Westgate and No. 18 with FPI.
21. UCF Knights (rating 125.5)
UCF was perfect against the Vegas number but has dropped three in a row as Vegas inflated the team's spreads. Since the Knights were favored by 39.5 in Week 11 and won by only 25, they drop a little in the ratings. Westgate has them at No. 20, and FPI ranks them at No. 21.
22. Washington State Cougars (rating 125.4)
The Cougars control their own destiny in getting to the Pac-12 title game. They benefited from seven Utah turnovers in their most recent contest but won on the road by seven as one-point favorites, so they move up. Westgate has them at No. 22, but FPI lists them way down at No. 28.
23. West Virginia Mountaineers (rating 124.0)
West Virginia got an impressive road win at Kansas State and climbs into the top 25. Westgate has them at only No. 26, and FPI has them No. 31.
24. Texas Longhorns (rating 123.8)
Texas is a 5-5 team and will not be ranked in any poll, but it is in the Vegas top 25. How legit is this ranking? The Longhorns are taking on No. 23 West Virginia and are 3.5-point 'dogs this week. Westgate and FPI have them at No. 25, and they are 23rd in my average game grades.
25. Arizona Wildcats (rating 123.6)
With Khalil Tate at quarterback, the Wildcats are 5-1, and their only loss was at USC by 14. My Vegas power rating is the only one that ranks them this week, but Westgate is close at No. 27 (FPI is at No. 30 for Arizona).
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 12 of the college football season is here, which brings another edition of my weekly Vegas college football power rankings. I have nine sets of power ratings, and I will supply the one that is closest to what Las Vegas uses. For comparison's sake, I also provide the ratings from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, ESPN's FPI ratings and my average game grades from philsteele.com. These game grades take into account this year's stats (passing and rushing yards, offensive and defensive points and the strength of opponent played).
Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's top 25:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (rating 143.2)
Alabama is the clear top spot in all four sets of power ratings. The Tide were favored by 14 points at Mississippi State and won by only seven, so they lose a few decimal points off their rating for a second straight week.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (rating 140.8)
Westgate, FPI and my average game grade all had the Buckeyes at No. 2, despite the fact that they lost big at Iowa. They were favored by 17 over Michigan State, which many questioned, but they dominated the game to the tune of a 48-3 win. That got them back a good portion of the points they lost last week.
3. Oklahoma Sooners (rating 138.6)
The Sooners were favored by only 6.5 points against TCU and rolled to an 18-point win, leading 38-14 in the fourth quarter. That bumped them up almost two points and moved them up in the rankings. They are No. 3 at Westgate and for my average game grade but only No. 8 in the FPI rankings.
4. Clemson Tigers (rating 138.2)
The Tigers won by 17 over the weekend, right around where Vegas had them. The game was a little closer than the score, so there is just a minor change to the power rating results. They are No. 4 at Westgate, FPI and in my average game grades.
5. Auburn Tigers (rating 137.5)
The Tigers are another two-loss team ranked higher than some unbeaten teams. They were 2.5-point 'dogs in Week 11 but then dominated No. 1 Georgia 40-17. This system has safeguards to overreactions, so four points is about the maximum move -- but they almost got there. Auburn is No. 5 at Westgate and FPI.
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (rating 137.4)
Penn State was favored by 31 points this past week and won by 29, but a slight 304-200 yardage edge drops the Nittany Lions a little bit. They are No. 3 in the FPI rankings but No. 6 at Westgate and No. 7 in my average game grades.
7. Georgia Bulldogs (rating 134.9)
Georgia was a slight favorite at Auburn and lost against a very good team in a tough environment, but the final score of 40-17 has them taking a good-sized dip in the ratings. They are No. 7 at both FPI and Westgate and No. 8 in my average game grades.
8. Wisconsin Badgers (rating 134.8)
The Badgers easily beat Iowa 38-14 on Saturday, and even more impressively, they held the Hawkeyes to 66 total yards of offense one week after Iowa had 487 yards and 55 points against Ohio State. The Badgers move up one spot and sit at No. 8 at Westgate and No. 10 both in my average game grades and with FPI.
9. Miami Hurricanes (rating 134.7)
This is the one in which my Vegas ratings most differ from Westgate's. After their big win as 3-point home 'dogs versus Notre Dame, the Canes move into the top 10. Westgate has them at only No. 13, and FPI seats them at No. 12.
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (rating 134.3)
The Irish lost 41-8 at Miami as slight favorites, so they take a drop in the rankings. Notre Dame is No. 10 at Westgate and No. 9 in FPI.
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (rating 133.8)
The Cowboys were 6.5-point road favorites and won at Iowa State by seven, so there's no change in the power ratings. They are No. 9 at Westgate and No. 11 with FPI, but they actually rate No. 6 in my average game grades.
12. Washington Huskies (rating 132.2)
The Huskies were small favorites at Stanford and lost by eight, so they drop out of the top 10 but remain barely ahead of USC. Westgate has them at No. 11, and my average game grades have them at No. 12, while FPI has them up at No. 6.
13. USC Trojans (rating 131.5)
USC is another team that did exactly as expected by Vegas, as it was favored by 13.5 and beat Colorado by 14. The Trojans actually led 28-7 and 38-17. Since USC had a stretch of underperformances earlier this season, it ranks lower with FPI and my average game grades at No. 17, but Westgate has the Trojans at No. 12.
14. TCU Horned Frogs (rating 131.2)
Westgate has TCU at No. 14, FPI registers it at No. 13, and my average game grades have it sitting at No. 11. The Horned Frogs lost by more than expected to Oklahoma, so they drop a couple of spots.
15. Michigan Wolverines (rating 129.3)
Michigan was favored by 16.5 points in Week 11 and beat Maryland by 25, so the Wolverines continue to climb in the ratings. Westgate has them at No. 15, and FPI positions them at No. 20.
16. Stanford Cardinal (rating 127.5)
Stanford was barely hanging on to a top-25 spot after a couple poor efforts versus Oregon State and Washington State. Make the Cardinal a home 'dog, and they upset No. 8 Washington with a 406-325 yardage edge. Westgate has them at No. 17, while FPI ranks them at No. 14.
17. LSU Tigers (rating 127.4)
LSU was forgotten after it lost to Troy, but the Tigers have won five in a row versus the Vegas number and continue to climb in the power ratings. Westgate has them at No. 18, and FPI lists them at No. 19.
18. Mississippi State Bulldogs (rating 126.5)
Only in the Vegas power ratings can a team lose and jump over a team that won by 25. Mississippi State was a two-touchdown 'dog versus Alabama, but lost by only seven and moves past UCF. The Bulldogs are No. 19 at Westgate, No. 16 with FPI and No. 14 in my average game grades.
19. Virginia Tech Hokies (rating 126.4)
The Hokies lost, but by only five points as 3-point favorites, so they did not drop as much as I originally expected. Westgate has them at No. 16, and FPI has them at No. 15.
20. NC State Wolfpack (rating 126.3)
The Wolfpack were favored by a field goal in Week 11 and won by three, so there is no change in their ratings. They are No. 21 at Westgate and No. 18 with FPI.
21. UCF Knights (rating 125.5)
UCF was perfect against the Vegas number but has dropped three in a row as Vegas inflated the team's spreads. Since the Knights were favored by 39.5 in Week 11 and won by only 25, they drop a little in the ratings. Westgate has them at No. 20, and FPI ranks them at No. 21.
22. Washington State Cougars (rating 125.4)
The Cougars control their own destiny in getting to the Pac-12 title game. They benefited from seven Utah turnovers in their most recent contest but won on the road by seven as one-point favorites, so they move up. Westgate has them at No. 22, but FPI lists them way down at No. 28.
23. West Virginia Mountaineers (rating 124.0)
West Virginia got an impressive road win at Kansas State and climbs into the top 25. Westgate has them at only No. 26, and FPI has them No. 31.
24. Texas Longhorns (rating 123.8)
Texas is a 5-5 team and will not be ranked in any poll, but it is in the Vegas top 25. How legit is this ranking? The Longhorns are taking on No. 23 West Virginia and are 3.5-point 'dogs this week. Westgate and FPI have them at No. 25, and they are 23rd in my average game grades.
25. Arizona Wildcats (rating 123.6)
With Khalil Tate at quarterback, the Wildcats are 5-1, and their only loss was at USC by 14. My Vegas power rating is the only one that ranks them this week, but Westgate is close at No. 27 (FPI is at No. 30 for Arizona).
