YTD: 47-41 -.6 units
Two solid weeks although Monday nights FH UNDER was a kick in the nuts, with Jay Cutler throwing a pick in the final seconds to allow Carolina to score to push it over 20. I have been losing these close games (KC returning the fumble hurt me, as did the ridiculous ending KC/OAK --(KC fucks me no matter what side I am on).
Anyway, two plays so far this week including tonight:
Tenn + 7 (-115) 1 unit
NE- 6.5(-115) - 3 units
I thought NE (-6.5)would be favored by 7.5 or more, so I was happy to get less than 7. Carr will get yards, as the Pat's are bend don't break, but since the first 4 weeks vs very good offenses (KC at their peak, NO, Houston with Watson, Carolina). Back then Gilmore was not getting the assignments right, but know he has. In part because his assignments have been to cover the team's best WR and he has handled D Thomas and Mike Evans well. So his health is paramount. The secondary is actually very good: McCourty, Butler, Gilmore, with Chung, Rowe and Harmon covering in Big Dime and Big Nickel settings.
Since the defenses horribly bad start, they have given up: 14, 17, 7, 17, 16 points. And most of those were on garbage time: Denver, ATL, TB all scored when the win probability was already 95 percent or higher (though these points still count towards a cover, but much harder to back door on a 6.5 than a 7.5, which is where I would put this line. So getting below key number is huge. Vegas either has sharp money on OAK or his happy to back OAK given the soft 7 or even 6.5s available (when I bet this is was 7+100 and bought a half line, but one can find 6.5 (-110) now. I am not venturing a guess as to where the line goes from here.
As for Tenn +7, Pitt looked rather vulnerable last week vs Indy and Tenn needs this game much more than Pitt, who seems likely to coast for a division title either way (they are fighting for a BYE, #1 seed so I am not saying they don't need this game). Pitt is the better team, no doubt. And most weeks I think Tenn gets to respect from the books, but this line seems like a Pittsburgh tax to me.
Both teams have won 4 in a row but Pitt has done so by more than 1 score only once vs Cinci, winning by 3, 5 and 6 in the other games. I think there is a good chance Pitt doesn't cover a 7 here.
I say this while acknowledging that the Titans are not a good road team ATS, although they have covered in 5 of last 7 vs Pitt (how much of this accounts for the Mariota era I am not sure).
Lean OVER as well.
Two solid weeks although Monday nights FH UNDER was a kick in the nuts, with Jay Cutler throwing a pick in the final seconds to allow Carolina to score to push it over 20. I have been losing these close games (KC returning the fumble hurt me, as did the ridiculous ending KC/OAK --(KC fucks me no matter what side I am on).
Anyway, two plays so far this week including tonight:
Tenn + 7 (-115) 1 unit
NE- 6.5(-115) - 3 units
I thought NE (-6.5)would be favored by 7.5 or more, so I was happy to get less than 7. Carr will get yards, as the Pat's are bend don't break, but since the first 4 weeks vs very good offenses (KC at their peak, NO, Houston with Watson, Carolina). Back then Gilmore was not getting the assignments right, but know he has. In part because his assignments have been to cover the team's best WR and he has handled D Thomas and Mike Evans well. So his health is paramount. The secondary is actually very good: McCourty, Butler, Gilmore, with Chung, Rowe and Harmon covering in Big Dime and Big Nickel settings.
Since the defenses horribly bad start, they have given up: 14, 17, 7, 17, 16 points. And most of those were on garbage time: Denver, ATL, TB all scored when the win probability was already 95 percent or higher (though these points still count towards a cover, but much harder to back door on a 6.5 than a 7.5, which is where I would put this line. So getting below key number is huge. Vegas either has sharp money on OAK or his happy to back OAK given the soft 7 or even 6.5s available (when I bet this is was 7+100 and bought a half line, but one can find 6.5 (-110) now. I am not venturing a guess as to where the line goes from here.
As for Tenn +7, Pitt looked rather vulnerable last week vs Indy and Tenn needs this game much more than Pitt, who seems likely to coast for a division title either way (they are fighting for a BYE, #1 seed so I am not saying they don't need this game). Pitt is the better team, no doubt. And most weeks I think Tenn gets to respect from the books, but this line seems like a Pittsburgh tax to me.
Both teams have won 4 in a row but Pitt has done so by more than 1 score only once vs Cinci, winning by 3, 5 and 6 in the other games. I think there is a good chance Pitt doesn't cover a 7 here.
I say this while acknowledging that the Titans are not a good road team ATS, although they have covered in 5 of last 7 vs Pitt (how much of this accounts for the Mariota era I am not sure).
Lean OVER as well.
