Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 11
How about those Cleveland Browns? Even when they play well, they still can't find a way to cover. At 2-7 against the spread, they are the worst ATS team in the NFL. You might not be happy when you read this week's picks ...
For Week 11, we'll be looking at one of Bet Labs Sports' pro systems: fading teams on a roll. This system focuses on betting against teams that are covering by an average of at least five points. We also won't bet on teams with a winning percentage over .660 because they will be viewed as elite teams by the public. The purpose of this system is to use public perception as an ally and take the overlooked opponent against a strong team. If both teams are good, we don't have as much of an edge.
For the most part, this system naturally ends up spitting out contrarian matches. Bettors are inclined to take the hot or trendy team, so we don't really need to filter out matches by percentage of bets. Dating back to 2003, the "team on a roll" has received the majority of bets more than 80 percent of the time.
We'll also look at only Weeks 5-17 because we can't accurately assess a team through the first month of the season.
Why it works
Since these matchups generally feature over-performing teams against inferior opponents, we're going to be able to gain value for a couple of reasons. As I mentioned before, most of these games will have contrarian value. With the public loading up on the hot team, lines will often be inflated on the opponent, giving contrarian bettors an extra half-point or so that will prove valuable in the long run. All three of our matches this week are currently receiving 34 percent of bets or less. This season, teams receiving that level of support have gone 27-19-3 ATS.
This also works because teams are due to regress. It's tough for teams to cover by such a large margin for an extended period of time which is why there are about half as many historical matches by Week 17 as there are at this point of the season. Right now, there are four teams in the league that have covered by an average of four points and all have done so quite handily. The Eagles, Saints, Jaguars and Rams actually have ATS margins of at least eight points, with the Rams leading the way at a whopping 12-point average cover margin. If we actually narrowed our focus and looked at teams with a cover margin of at least eight instead of five, our return on investment improves to 11.2 percent.
Week 11 system matches
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
The Saints have surely been one of the biggest surprises this season. After two weeks, they had 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Now, they have the fourth-best odds in the league at 6-1 thanks to their shockingly good defense led by rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore and dual-headed backfield threat in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
The Redskins are coming off an ugly loss at the hands of Case Keenum and the Vikings, and will surely be looked upon poorly by public bettors. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off an absolute evisceration of the Bills, which will catch the eyes of the public.
At +7.5, there's no time like the present to bet on the Redskins.
The pick: Redskins +7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
"Sacksonville," as they're now referred to, has six more sacks than any other team in the league. That has helped the Jaguars limit opponents to 14.9 points per game this season, also a league best.
A league-best defense against the Browns' offense ... this game has shutout written all over it. Heck, with winds expected to be over 20 mph and temperatures approaching freezing, I wouldn't be shocked if we see a 0-0 tie.
This is going to scare off many bettors, but sometimes the best bets are the toughest ones to make. With Jacksonville covering by an average of 10 points this season, our money will be on the Browns.
The Pick: Browns +7.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
I was rather surprised to see that Dallas is receiving the least amount of spread bets of any of our three matches at just 21 percent. As a home 'dog getting 3.5 points, this might be my favorite of the three.
The Cowboys certainly didn't look good against the Falcons without their star running back Ezekiel Elliott, which is likely the reason behind the change of heart from public bettors. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, but had won four of their previous five games by double digits -- three of which by at least three touchdowns.
Some offshore books have already moved the line from 3.5 to a heavily juiced Philly -3. Try and get the hook if you can, but don't be afraid to take Dallas at +3 for around an even payout.
The Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
How about those Cleveland Browns? Even when they play well, they still can't find a way to cover. At 2-7 against the spread, they are the worst ATS team in the NFL. You might not be happy when you read this week's picks ...
For Week 11, we'll be looking at one of Bet Labs Sports' pro systems: fading teams on a roll. This system focuses on betting against teams that are covering by an average of at least five points. We also won't bet on teams with a winning percentage over .660 because they will be viewed as elite teams by the public. The purpose of this system is to use public perception as an ally and take the overlooked opponent against a strong team. If both teams are good, we don't have as much of an edge.
For the most part, this system naturally ends up spitting out contrarian matches. Bettors are inclined to take the hot or trendy team, so we don't really need to filter out matches by percentage of bets. Dating back to 2003, the "team on a roll" has received the majority of bets more than 80 percent of the time.
We'll also look at only Weeks 5-17 because we can't accurately assess a team through the first month of the season.
Why it works
Since these matchups generally feature over-performing teams against inferior opponents, we're going to be able to gain value for a couple of reasons. As I mentioned before, most of these games will have contrarian value. With the public loading up on the hot team, lines will often be inflated on the opponent, giving contrarian bettors an extra half-point or so that will prove valuable in the long run. All three of our matches this week are currently receiving 34 percent of bets or less. This season, teams receiving that level of support have gone 27-19-3 ATS.
This also works because teams are due to regress. It's tough for teams to cover by such a large margin for an extended period of time which is why there are about half as many historical matches by Week 17 as there are at this point of the season. Right now, there are four teams in the league that have covered by an average of four points and all have done so quite handily. The Eagles, Saints, Jaguars and Rams actually have ATS margins of at least eight points, with the Rams leading the way at a whopping 12-point average cover margin. If we actually narrowed our focus and looked at teams with a cover margin of at least eight instead of five, our return on investment improves to 11.2 percent.
Week 11 system matches
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
The Saints have surely been one of the biggest surprises this season. After two weeks, they had 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Now, they have the fourth-best odds in the league at 6-1 thanks to their shockingly good defense led by rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore and dual-headed backfield threat in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
The Redskins are coming off an ugly loss at the hands of Case Keenum and the Vikings, and will surely be looked upon poorly by public bettors. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off an absolute evisceration of the Bills, which will catch the eyes of the public.
At +7.5, there's no time like the present to bet on the Redskins.
The pick: Redskins +7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
"Sacksonville," as they're now referred to, has six more sacks than any other team in the league. That has helped the Jaguars limit opponents to 14.9 points per game this season, also a league best.
A league-best defense against the Browns' offense ... this game has shutout written all over it. Heck, with winds expected to be over 20 mph and temperatures approaching freezing, I wouldn't be shocked if we see a 0-0 tie.
This is going to scare off many bettors, but sometimes the best bets are the toughest ones to make. With Jacksonville covering by an average of 10 points this season, our money will be on the Browns.
The Pick: Browns +7.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
I was rather surprised to see that Dallas is receiving the least amount of spread bets of any of our three matches at just 21 percent. As a home 'dog getting 3.5 points, this might be my favorite of the three.
The Cowboys certainly didn't look good against the Falcons without their star running back Ezekiel Elliott, which is likely the reason behind the change of heart from public bettors. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, but had won four of their previous five games by double digits -- three of which by at least three touchdowns.
Some offshore books have already moved the line from 3.5 to a heavily juiced Philly -3. Try and get the hook if you can, but don't be afraid to take Dallas at +3 for around an even payout.
The Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
