Best Bets For Thursday Night's Steelers-Titans NFL Game

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Best bets for Tennessee-Pittsburgh
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER

ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.


Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Total: 44
PickCenter public pick: 57 percent on Pittsburgh


Steele: While I feel that the Steelers are one of the top three teams in the NFL, I went with the Indianapolis Colts last week because Pittsburgh struggles off a bye and had won only one of its past nine road games by more than a touchdown. The Steelers were lucky to escape with a win, overcoming a 17-3 deficit. Pittsburgh is 7-2 right now, despite having six of its first nine games on the road. At home, it has outgained teams by a 375-243 yard margin. I expect the Steelers to be fired up for the 6-3 Titans. Tennessee has a good shot at the playoffs, but it is being outscored on the year and has not impressed me over the past four weeks. The Titans did have a 27-15 edge in first downs and a 416-308 advantage in yardage against a weak Cincinnati Bengals team at home this week, but once running back Le'Veon Bell returned to form, the Steelers became a complete team. Even receiver Martavis Bryant was back in action last week.

The Steelers' defense holds foes to 44 yards per game below their season average, and the Titans allow teams 12 above their average total. In the past four weeks, Pittsburgh has been the No. 4 offense in the NFL, while Tennessee was at No. 26. The Titans average just 261 yards per game on the road. Let's clinch it with the trends: Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS as a non-division home favorite since 2014, and Tennessee is 7-16 as an away 'dog in the past four years. Take the Steelers here.

ATS pick: Pittsburgh

Sharp: Both of these teams were fortunate to pull off wins surrounding their bye weeks. The Titans narrowly defeated the Cleveland Browns 12-9 before their Week 8 bye, and then the Baltimore Ravens 23-20 after the week off. The Steelers narrowly defeated the Detroit Lions 20-15 before their Week 9 bye, then skirted out a 20-17 win over the Colts in their return to action.

There are always questions about focus, motivation and coaching when it comes to the Steelers due to their tendency to deliver perplexing performances, as witnessed by their 1-5 record in Thursday night appearances dating back to 2012. Pittsburgh hasn't played a top run offense since Week 6, most recently facing the Bengals, Lions and Colts who rank 26th, 30th and 24th, respectively. On the season against good run offenses, the Steelers struggled to defeat the Browns, lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars and won a close game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers just lost cornerback Joe Haden and might be without safety Mike Mitchell, two starters in their secondary, and the Titans are good enough to exploit those losses. Tennessee should be able to implement a balanced offensive game plan. Both defenses have faced extremely easy schedules of opposition, and while the Steelers' defense ranks fourth against this schedule, the Titans' defense ranks 23rd. As such, I think the Steelers should be able to see some offensive success. Toss in questions surrounding quarterback Marcus Mariota's recent injury, and I will just lean on the Titans, rather than playing them.

ATS pick: Lean on Tennessee

Rynning: The Steelers continued to fail to live up to expectations offensively last week against the Colts with just 316 yards. Obviously, the chemistry is lacking from the offensive coordinator right on down with this struggling unit that has failed to hit the 30-point mark yet this season. Still, the door is wide-open against a Titans defense that allows chunks of yardage and almost 24 points per game. The Titans' offense is gaining steam and momentum with a healthier Mariota, and it will give this Steelers defense some issues in its own right.

Pick: Over 44 total points

Clay ATS pick and prediction: Tennessee and the over (Pittsburgh 26, Tennessee 20)

Parolin's prop bets

257.5 passing yards by Ben Roethlisberger (O/U -110)

Ah, the stat-friendly confines of Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's home/road splits were almost a punchline entering the season, as from 2015-16 Roethlisberger averaged 333.6 pass yards per game with 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in Pittsburgh. So what to make of his struggles at home this season? Roethlisberger has averaged 260 yards per game with four touchdowns and five interceptions on his own turf in 2017. Cause for alarm? Not exactly. For starters, he has played only three home games this year, and his opponents really couldn't have been much tougher. Roethlisberger's three home opponents this season have been the Jaguars (first in yards per attempt allowed), Bengals (second) and the Minnesota Vikings (sixth). That is a ridiculously tough trio of defenses. Tennessee isn't much easier, ranking seventh at 6.5 yards per attempt. However, Roethlisberger's average is already hitting over against those three defenses. Five of the nine starting quarterbacks who have faced the Titans this season threw for more than 260 yards, with Indianapolis' Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland's DeShone Kizer and Miami's Jay Cutler being the three who missed hitting 258. Believe in Big Ben this week.

Pick: Over

91.5 rushing yards by Le'Veon Bell (O/U -110)

Is this a big ask, even for Bell? Tennessee's rush defense has allowed 3.6 yards per rush and 91.9 rush yards per game, both top-six in the league this season. As good as Bell has been, he has been north of 91 rushing yards only three times in his nine games played. His rushing production has been all volume, as he has averaged a pedestrian 3.8 yards per rush this season, his lowest since his rookie season.

But Bell can still pull it off. First, some of his average is related to a slow start after a holdout. Bell averaged 3.2 yards per rush in his first two games this season after he missed training camp. He has averaged 103 rushing yards per game since that slow start. Using a conservative 3.8 yards per rush average, which splits the difference between averages for Bell and the Tennessee defense, Bell would need only 25 rushes to hit 92 yards. He has hit at least 25 rushes in four straight games and in five of his past six. On Thursday night, Bell's volume can carry the over.

Pick: Over
 

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I refuse to watch this game because they are supposed to show the majority of this game in that goofy skycam angle, I hate that and hope it doesn’t catch on
 

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