Best CFB Week 12 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
Our experts are back with their Week 12 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 12 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 3-4-1 Week 11 (38-48-3 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 1-4 in Week 11 (34-18-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 2-4 in Week 11 (42-35-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 24 Michigan Wolverines at No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5)
Steele: Michigan is on the second of back-to-back away games and has rival Ohio State on deck. The home team has won seven of the past eight in this series, and Michigan's most recent win in Madison was in 2001. While Michigan has a top-notch defense, it is just average on offense. Wisconsin is even better on defense, as the Badgers are holding their opponents to 127 yards per game below their season average, while also averaging a full touchdown more per game on offense. Jonathan Taylor has run for 1,525 yards, while averaging 7.0 yards per carry. Wisconsin has the stronger run game, offensively and defensively, and has the more experienced quarterback. And don't forget about the home field edge, which is huge in Madison.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 26, Michigan 13
Coughlin: No one has been a bigger backer of the Badgers than me, as they continue to be ranked behind some one-loss teams, including Clemson and Oklahoma. I will continue to say that Wisconsin can only play the teams on its schedule. It isn't Wisconsin's fault that BYU is having one of its worst seasons in the history of the program. In any other year, teams that win in Provo get a lot more credit. I will admit that this will be the biggest test that the Badgers' offense has faced. The Wolverines allow only 144 yards through the air and 110 yards on the ground per game. Now, on the other side, the Badgers allow even fewer rushing yards, so Michigan will have to fight for everything they get on Saturday, too. I'll say Wisconsin stays unbeaten.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Wisconsin 21, Michigan 19
Fallica: Wisconsin's offense hasn't been a thing of beauty this year at 30th in efficiency, the worst of any team ranked No. 13 or higher. But the defense has been pretty solid most of the year against some pretty overmatched offenses. Michigan has been incapable of stretching the field, and that should continue this week. UM is 27 spots lower than Wisconsin in offensive efficiency. It won't be pretty, but the Badgers should win this one by double digits (FPI calls for an 11-point win).
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 27, Michigan 16
UCLA Bruins at No. 11 USC Trojans (-16)
Steele: Sam Darnold had seven interceptions through four weeks, and at that point, I said he would have seven or fewer interceptions over the rest of the year. Over the past seven games, he has just four, including a 15-3 ratio in the past six games.
USC has averaged 590 yards per game in the past three weeks. Against Pac-12 foes, the Trojans are averaging 114 yards per game more than their opponents allow, and UCLA gives up 492 yards per game in Pac-12 play. Using that metric, USC is forecasted to gain 606 yards. UCLA allows 314 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry, and Ronald Jones II has rushed for 1,124 yards on 6.7 yards per tote. On the flip side, Josh Rosen returned to the lineup last week, and the Bruins put up 573 yards and 44 points on Arizona State. Points will be plentiful, and I like the over in this game.
Pick: Over 71.5 total points
Score: USC 48, UCLA 31
Coughlin: The quarterbacks in this game have been discussed as potential No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the coming NFL draft. But when I look at this game, I can't help but notice that USC has gotten 552 yards rushing in its past three games from Jones -- and the Bruins' rush defense ranks dead last in college football, allowing 302 yards per game on the ground. You can't ignore that matchup. The UCLA offense has looked like a different animal with Rosen back under center, as the Bruins beat Arizona State last week thanks to his 381 yards throwing. Something tells me the backdoor will be open for the Bruins here at the end of the game, and I say the road underdog covers the spread.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: USC 31, UCLA 24
Fallica: I'll just admit it. If it weren't a selected common game, I would want no part of it. What I've seen so far from UCLA on the road has been pretty awful, as the Bruins were rolled at Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Utah. I would have to think the duo of Darnold and Jones will have a field day with the Bruins' defense and put up a big number heading into the off week prior to the Pac-12 title game.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 47, UCLA 28
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5) at Duke Blue Devils
Steele: Duke head coach David Cutcliffe does very well versus the triple option. Duke had a bye two weeks ago and faced Army's triple option last week, so the Blue Devils basically had three weeks to work on defending the option. They held Army to a season-low 268 total yards last week. The last time Georgia Tech went on the ACC road, Virginia pulled out an outright upset, and Duke has an even better situation.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 17, Georgia Tech 16
Fallica: It'd be a big deal for Duke to go to a bowl game, and the Blue Devils have to win out to reach one this year. Losers of six straight, four of which came by one score, Duke got a great look at the option offense last week in a 21-16 loss at Army. That's pretty good prep week for a must-win game. I was on the Jackets last week, and they upset Virginia Tech in Atlanta. However, I think an upset could be in the works this week, as Duke possesses a decent defense and is due to win one of these close games.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 27, Georgia Tech 24
Iowa State Cyclones (-9.5) at Baylor Bears
Steele: The home team has won six of the past eight in the series, with Baylor winning the past four at home by an average of 33 points per game. Iowa State gave everything it had last week, and despite its quarterback being injured, it still had a chance to tie the game at the end. The Cyclones are now in a letdown spot, playing an unusual role. They are a Big 12 road favorite for just the third time in the past five years, and in the past two tries, they failed to beat the Vegas number. Baylor is a solid 6-1 as a home underdog. Charlie Brewer has thrown for 315 and 417 yards in the past two weeks, and the Bears actually had a 523-337 yard edge in their 14-point loss to Texas Tech last week. While Baylor is 1-6 in Big 12 play, it is only minus-12 yards per game.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Iowa State 26, Baylor 23
Fallica: Half of Iowa State's games have been decided by one score, including each of the past three. After close losses in the past two weeks, along with further attrition at the quarterback position, a berth in the Big 12 title game isn't going to happen. It's the final home game of the year for the young Bears. Remember Baylor has put up more than 500 yards in home games versus Oklahoma and Texas Tech (and 497 on West Virginia). If the emotion of the season has taken a toll on the Cyclones, it will show this week.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 33, Iowa State 31
Missouri Tigers (-9.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Steele: The home team has won three in a row in this series by an average of nine points per game. After just one win through six contests, Missouri used easy games against Idaho and Connecticut to get their offense going. It then beat beleaguered Florida and Tennessee teams by 26 and 33 points, respectively. The Tigers meet another team in disarray this week. Despite its 2-4 SEC mark, Missouri is plus-17 yards per game. Derek Mason was hoping to contend in the SEC East, especially after Vanderbilt's upset of Kansas State had the Commodores ranked and perfect after three games. It hasn't been pretty since, as Vanderbilt has lost all six of its SEC games and is minus-236 yards per game. The defense is giving up 322 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. Missouri just ran the ball all over Tennessee to the tune of 433 yards and 8.2 yards per carry.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 43, Vanderbilt 29
Fallica: Missouri has been blowing out bad teams and teams that shut it down for the season. Don't get me wrong, the fact that the Tigers have turned it around and are within one win of bowl eligibility is pretty incredible. The Commodores can still reach a bowl game themselves if they can beat Missouri at home and win at Neyland against Tennessee next week. Coming off a poor defensive effort last week, I'd be surprised if Vandy didn't put forth a lot better effort with a shot to still get to a bowl game.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Missouri 37, Vanderbilt 34
Other games
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at No. 6 Auburn Tigers (-37)
Steele: This is the biggest sandwich game that I have ever seen. Auburn just faced No. 1 ranked Georgia, was fired up at home as an underdog and dominated the game. The talk this week is how the Tigers can make the CFP if they beat No. 1 Alabama next week and Georgia the following week in the SEC title game. Sort of makes it tough to focus on the task at hand, right? Louisiana Monroe is off a bye, and this is their "Super Bowl." Kerryon Johnson carried the ball 32 times last week for Auburn, and he may need to tote it 32 more times versus Alabama. I would not expect many touches for him here.
ATS pick: Louisiana Monroe
Score: Auburn 49, Louisiana Monroe 21
No. 15 UCF Knights (-14) at Temple Owls
Steele: Temple catches the warm weather Knights in cold Philadelphia for its final home game. This is a case of what have you done for me lately. UCF became the favorite for a New Year's Day bowl slot by demolishing opponents weekly and was plus-214 yards per game in its first five games (5-0 ATS). Temple's offense has gone from averaging 296 yards per game over its first five contests to 459 yards per game in its past five. The key to Temple's resurgence has been quarterback Frank Nutile, who has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-3 ratio. UCF is playing with unbeaten pressure, and I believe Temple takes this one to the wire.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: UCF 35, Temple 28
Rice Owls at Old Dominion Monarchs (-8.5)
Fallica: ODU is coming off an outright win as a double-digit underdog at FIU last week, but I'm not sure I'd want to lay double digits with a team that was in this spot at home a couple weeks back versus Charlotte and won just 6-0. Rice has scored some points lately and showed some grit against a decent Southern Miss team last week. That makes me think the Owls can keep this one within the number.
ATS pick: Rice
Score: Old Dominion 41, Rice 34
Arizona State Sun Devils (-7) at Oregon State Beavers
Fallica: The Beavers have battled at home since making the coaching change. Since the near upset of Stanford in Corvallis, Oregon State has predictably gone on the road and lost by double digits to Cal and Arizona. This seems like a good spot to grab the points at home against a team that has given up a lot of points recently and could be dealing with some weather in the Pacific Northwest.
ATS pick: Oregon State
Score: Arizona State 30, Oregon State 28
Florida International Golden Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls (-14.5)
Fallica: The fact that FAU is unbeaten in C-USA play and is north of a two-touchdown favorite over a conference foe with a new head coach of its own has to have Lane Kiffin crying out "rat poison." It's an especially dangerous spot with the Owls off another blowout road win and FIU just losing outright as a double-digit favorite. The past three times FIU has been an underdog, it has won the game outright, including twice as a double-digit underdog. I'm not sure FIU can keep the Owls out of the end zone enough to win outright, but I don't think this one will be a three-score game.
ATS pick: Florida International
Score: Florida Atlantic 38, Florida International 28
No. 12 TCU Horned Frogs (-7) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Fallica: Underdogs have fared pretty well lately in this series, and Texas Tech's win at Baylor last week has the Red Raiders one win away from a bowl game. Tech will have to pull an upset either this week at home against TCU or next week at Texas to secure eligibility. The Red Raiders haven't been a great team at home this year, losing close games to Oklahoma State and Kansas State, along with another to Iowa State. Still, I kind of get the sense that TCU has peaked. With just one turnover forced in the past four games, turnover luck has stopped for the Horned Frogs. They'll need to bounce back from a pretty poor offensive showing last week to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive.
ATS pick: Texas Tech
Score: Texas Tech 40, TCU 34
California Golden Bears at No. 22 Stanford Cardinal (-16)
Coughlin: The Cardinal have so much to play for now after their upset win versus Washington last week. If they win this game and UW beats Wazzu, the Cardinal will find themselves playing for a Pac-12 championship in a rematch with USC. However, in a rivalry in which Cal has lost seven straight games, the Bears are awfully scary to me. They still need a win to become bowl eligible, and they have already shown that they can pull off the upset, as they beat Wazzu earlier this year. Actually, they blew Wazzu out. I think the great defensive mind of Justin Wilcox shows up here, the Golden Bears scare the crap out of Stanford and the Cardinal wins a close one with Cal covering.
ATS pick: California
Score: Stanford 27, California 21
Virginia Cavaliers at No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (-19.5)
Coughlin: Hmm, what do we have here? This one features a second-place team in the ACC coastal traveling to play what might be the hottest team in the country, and the spread is 19.5 points. I'm not saying the Cavs can pull the upset, but the Wahoos have the combination of talent and coaching that can make it a game against the red-hot Hurricanes. They have beaten teams such as Georgia Tech and Boise State this year, so I don't think the Miami offense will overpower them in any way. I think The U wins by two scores, as the Cavs cover the spread.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Miami 17, Virginia 9
No. 19 NC State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1.5)
Coughlin: After a stretch of playing teams such as Notre Dame, Clemson and Boston College, NC State finds themselves in a winnable game on the road. Even FSU won at Wake Forest this year. The Demon Deacons come in off a win at Syracuse where they put up 64 points and 734 yards of offense and accumulated 33 first downs, but that Syracuse's defense has nowhere the talent that the Wolfpack will bring on Saturday evening. Plus, the Orange got to play versus a backup quarterback last week. I'll take NC State to win the game outright.
ATS pick: NC State
Score: NC State 27, Wake Forest 20
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
Our experts are back with their Week 12 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 12 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 3-4-1 Week 11 (38-48-3 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 1-4 in Week 11 (34-18-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 2-4 in Week 11 (42-35-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 24 Michigan Wolverines at No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5)
Steele: Michigan is on the second of back-to-back away games and has rival Ohio State on deck. The home team has won seven of the past eight in this series, and Michigan's most recent win in Madison was in 2001. While Michigan has a top-notch defense, it is just average on offense. Wisconsin is even better on defense, as the Badgers are holding their opponents to 127 yards per game below their season average, while also averaging a full touchdown more per game on offense. Jonathan Taylor has run for 1,525 yards, while averaging 7.0 yards per carry. Wisconsin has the stronger run game, offensively and defensively, and has the more experienced quarterback. And don't forget about the home field edge, which is huge in Madison.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 26, Michigan 13
Coughlin: No one has been a bigger backer of the Badgers than me, as they continue to be ranked behind some one-loss teams, including Clemson and Oklahoma. I will continue to say that Wisconsin can only play the teams on its schedule. It isn't Wisconsin's fault that BYU is having one of its worst seasons in the history of the program. In any other year, teams that win in Provo get a lot more credit. I will admit that this will be the biggest test that the Badgers' offense has faced. The Wolverines allow only 144 yards through the air and 110 yards on the ground per game. Now, on the other side, the Badgers allow even fewer rushing yards, so Michigan will have to fight for everything they get on Saturday, too. I'll say Wisconsin stays unbeaten.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Wisconsin 21, Michigan 19
Fallica: Wisconsin's offense hasn't been a thing of beauty this year at 30th in efficiency, the worst of any team ranked No. 13 or higher. But the defense has been pretty solid most of the year against some pretty overmatched offenses. Michigan has been incapable of stretching the field, and that should continue this week. UM is 27 spots lower than Wisconsin in offensive efficiency. It won't be pretty, but the Badgers should win this one by double digits (FPI calls for an 11-point win).
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 27, Michigan 16
UCLA Bruins at No. 11 USC Trojans (-16)
Steele: Sam Darnold had seven interceptions through four weeks, and at that point, I said he would have seven or fewer interceptions over the rest of the year. Over the past seven games, he has just four, including a 15-3 ratio in the past six games.
USC has averaged 590 yards per game in the past three weeks. Against Pac-12 foes, the Trojans are averaging 114 yards per game more than their opponents allow, and UCLA gives up 492 yards per game in Pac-12 play. Using that metric, USC is forecasted to gain 606 yards. UCLA allows 314 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry, and Ronald Jones II has rushed for 1,124 yards on 6.7 yards per tote. On the flip side, Josh Rosen returned to the lineup last week, and the Bruins put up 573 yards and 44 points on Arizona State. Points will be plentiful, and I like the over in this game.
Pick: Over 71.5 total points
Score: USC 48, UCLA 31
Coughlin: The quarterbacks in this game have been discussed as potential No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the coming NFL draft. But when I look at this game, I can't help but notice that USC has gotten 552 yards rushing in its past three games from Jones -- and the Bruins' rush defense ranks dead last in college football, allowing 302 yards per game on the ground. You can't ignore that matchup. The UCLA offense has looked like a different animal with Rosen back under center, as the Bruins beat Arizona State last week thanks to his 381 yards throwing. Something tells me the backdoor will be open for the Bruins here at the end of the game, and I say the road underdog covers the spread.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: USC 31, UCLA 24
Fallica: I'll just admit it. If it weren't a selected common game, I would want no part of it. What I've seen so far from UCLA on the road has been pretty awful, as the Bruins were rolled at Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Utah. I would have to think the duo of Darnold and Jones will have a field day with the Bruins' defense and put up a big number heading into the off week prior to the Pac-12 title game.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 47, UCLA 28
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5) at Duke Blue Devils
Steele: Duke head coach David Cutcliffe does very well versus the triple option. Duke had a bye two weeks ago and faced Army's triple option last week, so the Blue Devils basically had three weeks to work on defending the option. They held Army to a season-low 268 total yards last week. The last time Georgia Tech went on the ACC road, Virginia pulled out an outright upset, and Duke has an even better situation.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 17, Georgia Tech 16
Fallica: It'd be a big deal for Duke to go to a bowl game, and the Blue Devils have to win out to reach one this year. Losers of six straight, four of which came by one score, Duke got a great look at the option offense last week in a 21-16 loss at Army. That's pretty good prep week for a must-win game. I was on the Jackets last week, and they upset Virginia Tech in Atlanta. However, I think an upset could be in the works this week, as Duke possesses a decent defense and is due to win one of these close games.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 27, Georgia Tech 24
Iowa State Cyclones (-9.5) at Baylor Bears
Steele: The home team has won six of the past eight in the series, with Baylor winning the past four at home by an average of 33 points per game. Iowa State gave everything it had last week, and despite its quarterback being injured, it still had a chance to tie the game at the end. The Cyclones are now in a letdown spot, playing an unusual role. They are a Big 12 road favorite for just the third time in the past five years, and in the past two tries, they failed to beat the Vegas number. Baylor is a solid 6-1 as a home underdog. Charlie Brewer has thrown for 315 and 417 yards in the past two weeks, and the Bears actually had a 523-337 yard edge in their 14-point loss to Texas Tech last week. While Baylor is 1-6 in Big 12 play, it is only minus-12 yards per game.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Iowa State 26, Baylor 23
Fallica: Half of Iowa State's games have been decided by one score, including each of the past three. After close losses in the past two weeks, along with further attrition at the quarterback position, a berth in the Big 12 title game isn't going to happen. It's the final home game of the year for the young Bears. Remember Baylor has put up more than 500 yards in home games versus Oklahoma and Texas Tech (and 497 on West Virginia). If the emotion of the season has taken a toll on the Cyclones, it will show this week.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 33, Iowa State 31
Missouri Tigers (-9.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Steele: The home team has won three in a row in this series by an average of nine points per game. After just one win through six contests, Missouri used easy games against Idaho and Connecticut to get their offense going. It then beat beleaguered Florida and Tennessee teams by 26 and 33 points, respectively. The Tigers meet another team in disarray this week. Despite its 2-4 SEC mark, Missouri is plus-17 yards per game. Derek Mason was hoping to contend in the SEC East, especially after Vanderbilt's upset of Kansas State had the Commodores ranked and perfect after three games. It hasn't been pretty since, as Vanderbilt has lost all six of its SEC games and is minus-236 yards per game. The defense is giving up 322 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. Missouri just ran the ball all over Tennessee to the tune of 433 yards and 8.2 yards per carry.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 43, Vanderbilt 29
Fallica: Missouri has been blowing out bad teams and teams that shut it down for the season. Don't get me wrong, the fact that the Tigers have turned it around and are within one win of bowl eligibility is pretty incredible. The Commodores can still reach a bowl game themselves if they can beat Missouri at home and win at Neyland against Tennessee next week. Coming off a poor defensive effort last week, I'd be surprised if Vandy didn't put forth a lot better effort with a shot to still get to a bowl game.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Missouri 37, Vanderbilt 34
Other games
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at No. 6 Auburn Tigers (-37)
Steele: This is the biggest sandwich game that I have ever seen. Auburn just faced No. 1 ranked Georgia, was fired up at home as an underdog and dominated the game. The talk this week is how the Tigers can make the CFP if they beat No. 1 Alabama next week and Georgia the following week in the SEC title game. Sort of makes it tough to focus on the task at hand, right? Louisiana Monroe is off a bye, and this is their "Super Bowl." Kerryon Johnson carried the ball 32 times last week for Auburn, and he may need to tote it 32 more times versus Alabama. I would not expect many touches for him here.
ATS pick: Louisiana Monroe
Score: Auburn 49, Louisiana Monroe 21
No. 15 UCF Knights (-14) at Temple Owls
Steele: Temple catches the warm weather Knights in cold Philadelphia for its final home game. This is a case of what have you done for me lately. UCF became the favorite for a New Year's Day bowl slot by demolishing opponents weekly and was plus-214 yards per game in its first five games (5-0 ATS). Temple's offense has gone from averaging 296 yards per game over its first five contests to 459 yards per game in its past five. The key to Temple's resurgence has been quarterback Frank Nutile, who has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-3 ratio. UCF is playing with unbeaten pressure, and I believe Temple takes this one to the wire.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: UCF 35, Temple 28
Rice Owls at Old Dominion Monarchs (-8.5)
Fallica: ODU is coming off an outright win as a double-digit underdog at FIU last week, but I'm not sure I'd want to lay double digits with a team that was in this spot at home a couple weeks back versus Charlotte and won just 6-0. Rice has scored some points lately and showed some grit against a decent Southern Miss team last week. That makes me think the Owls can keep this one within the number.
ATS pick: Rice
Score: Old Dominion 41, Rice 34
Arizona State Sun Devils (-7) at Oregon State Beavers
Fallica: The Beavers have battled at home since making the coaching change. Since the near upset of Stanford in Corvallis, Oregon State has predictably gone on the road and lost by double digits to Cal and Arizona. This seems like a good spot to grab the points at home against a team that has given up a lot of points recently and could be dealing with some weather in the Pacific Northwest.
ATS pick: Oregon State
Score: Arizona State 30, Oregon State 28
Florida International Golden Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls (-14.5)
Fallica: The fact that FAU is unbeaten in C-USA play and is north of a two-touchdown favorite over a conference foe with a new head coach of its own has to have Lane Kiffin crying out "rat poison." It's an especially dangerous spot with the Owls off another blowout road win and FIU just losing outright as a double-digit favorite. The past three times FIU has been an underdog, it has won the game outright, including twice as a double-digit underdog. I'm not sure FIU can keep the Owls out of the end zone enough to win outright, but I don't think this one will be a three-score game.
ATS pick: Florida International
Score: Florida Atlantic 38, Florida International 28
No. 12 TCU Horned Frogs (-7) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Fallica: Underdogs have fared pretty well lately in this series, and Texas Tech's win at Baylor last week has the Red Raiders one win away from a bowl game. Tech will have to pull an upset either this week at home against TCU or next week at Texas to secure eligibility. The Red Raiders haven't been a great team at home this year, losing close games to Oklahoma State and Kansas State, along with another to Iowa State. Still, I kind of get the sense that TCU has peaked. With just one turnover forced in the past four games, turnover luck has stopped for the Horned Frogs. They'll need to bounce back from a pretty poor offensive showing last week to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive.
ATS pick: Texas Tech
Score: Texas Tech 40, TCU 34
California Golden Bears at No. 22 Stanford Cardinal (-16)
Coughlin: The Cardinal have so much to play for now after their upset win versus Washington last week. If they win this game and UW beats Wazzu, the Cardinal will find themselves playing for a Pac-12 championship in a rematch with USC. However, in a rivalry in which Cal has lost seven straight games, the Bears are awfully scary to me. They still need a win to become bowl eligible, and they have already shown that they can pull off the upset, as they beat Wazzu earlier this year. Actually, they blew Wazzu out. I think the great defensive mind of Justin Wilcox shows up here, the Golden Bears scare the crap out of Stanford and the Cardinal wins a close one with Cal covering.
ATS pick: California
Score: Stanford 27, California 21
Virginia Cavaliers at No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (-19.5)
Coughlin: Hmm, what do we have here? This one features a second-place team in the ACC coastal traveling to play what might be the hottest team in the country, and the spread is 19.5 points. I'm not saying the Cavs can pull the upset, but the Wahoos have the combination of talent and coaching that can make it a game against the red-hot Hurricanes. They have beaten teams such as Georgia Tech and Boise State this year, so I don't think the Miami offense will overpower them in any way. I think The U wins by two scores, as the Cavs cover the spread.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Miami 17, Virginia 9
No. 19 NC State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1.5)
Coughlin: After a stretch of playing teams such as Notre Dame, Clemson and Boston College, NC State finds themselves in a winnable game on the road. Even FSU won at Wake Forest this year. The Demon Deacons come in off a win at Syracuse where they put up 64 points and 734 yards of offense and accumulated 33 first downs, but that Syracuse's defense has nowhere the talent that the Wolfpack will bring on Saturday evening. Plus, the Orange got to play versus a backup quarterback last week. I'll take NC State to win the game outright.
ATS pick: NC State
Score: NC State 27, Wake Forest 20
