Best bets on Week 11 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 11 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: With Mitchell Trubisky as the starter Chicago is 4-1 ATS. I pointed out last week that the Bears are great as a home 'dog at 8-1-1 ATS, but they had not been a division home favorite in three years and they lost outright to a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers. The Bears are back in their preferred home 'dog role, where they upset Pittsburgh and Carolina and gave Atlanta and Minnesota all they could handle. Chicago's defense is holding foes to 31 yards per game below their season average. Detroit beat Cleveland by 14 last week but was outgained 413-345 and trailed 24-17 versus the winless Browns. Cleveland blew scoring opportunities at the Lions' 2-yard line before the half and at the Lions' 4 at the end of the game. Detroit is just 2-6-1 ATS as a division away favorite, and last season in Chicago, the Lions were favored by three and lost outright, being outgained 408-263. I like the home 'dog here.
ATS pick: Lean on Chicago
Warren Sharp's take: This game comes down to two things for the Bears: pass rush and their run game. The Bears' run game was shut down and humiliated last week against the Packers, and while I'm down on the Packers' defense in general, technically they do rank eighth in run defense. The Lions' run defense ranks 18th, and the Trubisky-led Bears have never failed to cover when catching points against run defenses that rank outside of the top 10. Lastly, the Bears actually have the second-ranked pass rush in the league and the Lions are 0-3 against top-10 pass rushes this season, losing at home to the Panthers and Steelers and dropping a road game in New Orleans.
ATS pick: Chicago
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 21, Chicago 18
ATS pick: Under 41 total points
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 37
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: While Cleveland is 0-9 straight up and just 2-7 ATS this season, the Browns are only minus-3 yards per game. They have done a good bulk of their damage late in games when trailing big, however they're clearly not as good as the stats would indicate. Quarterback DeShone Kizer is completing just 53 percent of his passes with a 4:12 TD:INT ratio, which doesn't translate into success here. Cleveland is 2-2 ATS at home this season with a trio of three-point losses and a blowout loss to Cincinnati. The Browns appear to match up well, as they have a tough run defense, and while they allow 69 percent completions, they're facing Blake Bortles (59 percent completions this season). Jacksonville is just 1-1 as an away favorite the past six years and has not been a touchdown-plus favorite on the road since 2008. The Jaguars have been an up-and-down team all season. Last week, I sided with the Chargers as a big 'dog against them, and Jacksonville was fortunate to escape with the three-point overtime win. This is the Jaguars' week to be firing on all cylinders, and in their last road game, they beat Indianapolis 27-0 with a 518-232 yardage edge (Colts led Cleveland 28-7 with the Browns getting a couple of garbage touchdowns earlier this season). Cleveland is 4-11-1 ATS since 2015 as a home 'dog. Finally, the Jags are No. 3 in the NFL in combined performances versus opponent averages, holding foes to 44 yards per game below their season average and gaining 43 yards per game more than their opponents normally allow.
ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: Cleveland quite nearly pulled off an upset in Detroit but still lost by two TDs, which tells you all you need to know about the Browns' season. After playing a below-average Chargers run defense, the Jaguars must face the second-rated Browns run defense, the one shining jewel on the rusted crown of the Browns. Last week, the Jaguars decided to simply remove running back Leonard Fournette, who was struggling to perform against the Chargers, from the game entirely and let Bortles throw the ball all over the field. That option won't be on the table in Cleveland, especially with the weather. This could make the Jaguars rely on the run game even if it's not working up to par. Meanwhile, the Browns' offense is unlikely to have much success themselves, and will likewise have to rely on their run game.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Cleveland 14
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: I mentioned earlier in the year that the Packers were an average team, but Rodgers gave them Super Bowl aspirations. With Brett Hundley under center, they lost to a couple of playoff contenders at home in the Saints and Lions (minus-165 yards per game). Last week, Green Bay surprised me and won on the road 23-16 and now gets another beatable opponent at home. Baltimore does have the No. 6 defense in the NFL, but quarterback Joe Flacco is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with an 8:10 TD:INT ratio (offense is No. 30 in the league). The Ravens are 2-9 in their past 11 road games, but they are also 7-2 ATS when coming off a bye. While the Packers lost running back Aaron Jones last week, they will be in a circle-the-wagons mode, knowing they need to earn a victory at Lambeau this weekend.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Warren Sharp's take: There is a clear pattern for the Ravens' performances this season: They faced four defenses ranked inside the top 10 (Jaguars, Steelers, Bears and Vikings) and went 0-4, losing by a combined score of 56-121. The Ravens faced five defenses ranked outside the top 10 (Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins and Titans) and went 4-1, winning by a combined score of 134-50. The Packers' defense ranks 18th, and the Ravens' offense, despite ranking 27th overall, should be able to move the ball enough on the ground and in the air to put up enough points. I'm still far from sold on the Hundley-led Packers offense, and while Hundley has yet to face an easy defense (Saints, Lions and Bears all rank inside the top 11), the Ravens' third-ranked defense coming off a bye will be his toughest test yet.
ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 20, Baltimore 19
ATS pick: Green Bay and the over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (PK)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Tampa Bay
Phil Steele's take: These two teams were involved in games that delivered me ATS winners last week. Tampa Bay was a home 'dog to the New York Jets and led 15-3 before allowing a touchdown with :28 left. The Bucs get receiver Mike Evans back this week, and while they are 0-4 on the road, they did almost beat a stronger Buffalo team up North with a 447-434 yardage edge. They get to stay in Florida for this one. Last season, the Buccaneers were talked about as a possible playoff team but opened the season 3-5 and were written off. They won their next five, finished 9-7 and just missed the playoffs (minus-22 yards per game). That surge had them a trendy playoff pick this year, but they opened 2-6 and were written off. The defense had six sacks last week after having just eight sacks in the first eight games. I had Miami near the bottom of the NFL at the start of the season, and the Dolphins used smoke and mirrors (including some big comebacks) and opened 4-2. They have lost their past three and are only a garbage touchdown and two-point conversion versus Oakland from being 0-3 ATS in that stretch. Miami is minus-66 yards on the season, and I will call for another Tampa Bay upset with the Dolphins 2-10-2 ATS as a home favorite.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay
Warren Sharp's take: Whichever team is lucky enough to hook Miami as its weekly opponent is happy. These Dolphins allowed 45 points and almost 300 rushing yards to an otherwise totally inept Panthers rushing offense. After four weeks of playing progressively more difficult pass defenses -- and with quarterback Jameis Winston playing injured for the past two -- the Buccaneers finally got a win against the Jets last week. Now they face the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense. Tampa Bay is one of the most pass-heavy offenses, so backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should find a lot to like in this matchup, particularly with the reinstatement of Evans following his one-game suspension.
ATS pick: Tampa Bay
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Miami 20
ATS pick: Tampa Bay
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: I feel this is a matchup of two "go with" teams, as both sit atop their respective divisions. Minnesota has the No. 9 offense and No. 5 defense in the NFL and outgains its foes by an average of 391-274 at home. This is the Vikings' only home game in a five-week span, and they are a solid 12-3 ATS the past three seasons as a home favorite. I have been riding the Rams since their home loss to Seattle, when they had a 375-241 yardage edge. They are 4-0 straight up and ATS since winning by 10, 33, 34 and 26. Their past two games have been versus the lowly New York Giants and a Houston Texans squad minus quarterback Deshaun Watson. Los Angeles was outgained in each of its first three road games, and Minnesota has a great home-field edge. Rams quarterback Jared Goff is getting a lot of accolades, but the last time he took on a top-notch defense on the road, he was just 11-for-21 passing for 107 yards versus the Jaguars. I cannot go against either of these teams but will be looking to play on the loser next week.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: Ton of credit for Sean McVay & Co. with their massive turnaround of the Rams' offense, including the development of Goff. Their schedule has fallen right while void of strong defensive opposition. That will certainly change in this matchup against the talented and third-ranked Vikings defense, which is allowing 4.7 yards per play. The Rams' defense has quietly developed under the tutelage of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as well. The Vikings have performed admirably under signal-caller Case Keenum, but the Rams' front will create issues for his limited skill set.
Pick: Under 46 total points
Warren Sharp's take: Possibly the best game of the weekend that no one expected. While I was higher than many on Goff's prospects this season, I certainly didn't picture a 7-2 record through nine games. And while I took the over in the Vikings' win total, there was no doubt I thought the ticket was trash after losing quarterback Sam Bradford for what could be the rest of the season following Week 1. Yet here the Vikings are, at 7-2 as well. I think venue plays a big role in this game. The Vikings' offense has been a massive surprise, ranking seventh in efficiency despite facing the most difficult schedule of defenses. When they have faced tough defenses at home (Ravens, No. 3, and Saints, No. 5), they rolled. But in Keenum's first game on the road against a good defense (Steelers, No. 4), they were terrible. The Rams have produced regardless of venue, but they naturally haven't done nearly as well against good defenses. Against defenses ranked 13th or better, they are just 1-2, being held to 10 points against the Redskins, 10 against the Seahawks and 27 against the Jaguars (although they saw a 103-yard kickoff return TD and a blocked punt TD in that game, the offense scored just 13 points).
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 25, Los Angeles 24
ATS pick: Los Angeles and the over
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Total: 51.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: Keenum threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns versus this Redskins defense in Washington. The Redskins now face Drew Brees in the dome. Brees isn't the only reason this Saints team has gone from 7-9 to one of the best in the NFL. Brees now has a pair of solid running backs to turn to in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The biggest difference is the defense, which gave up an average of 391 yards per game in the three-year stretch from 2014-16. Since allowing 512.5 yards per game in their first two games this year, the Saints' defense has transformed into one of the NFL's best, allowing just 255 yards per game the past seven games! Washington is coming off a couple of misleading finals as the Redskins were outgained 437-244 by Seattle but came out with a win. Last week, they trailed Minnesota 38-17 and had a 133-41 yardage edge after that. The Saints led Buffalo on the road 47-3 last week before allowing a late score. The Saints are two points away from a perfect 7-0 ATS run, and I am not jumping in front of that train.
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans
Warren Sharp's take: The Redskins' offensive line is finally getting healthy, which is a big edge given their state the past couple of weeks. The problem for the Redskins in this matchup is that they really don't have much of a run game. They are a very balanced team, but are forced due to injury to rely on rookie Samaje Perine; while I love his ability and long-term future, he has not fared particularly well this season. And the reason this is such a problem is because the Saints' run defense ranks 25th, despite facing the 27th-rated schedule of run offenses. The Redskins' best strategy would be to try to use the Saints' own game plan against them: Run the ball and keep Brees on the sideline. But that is unlikely to happen. And while the year-to-date numbers for the Redskins' run defense look good (12th), that rank was largely earned with better personnel. The Redskins lost key DT Jonathan Allen and LB Mason Foster in late September, and just lost Foster's replacement, Will Compton, to IR this past week.
ATS pick: Washington
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 32, Washington 22
ATS pick: New Orleans and the over
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: Coming into last week, favorites of nine points or more were just 3-6 ATS, but went 2-1 last week. The Chiefs opened 5-0 and were anointed the best team in the NFL, but they have struggled since, going 1-3. In the past four weeks' rankings, they are just No. 20 on offense, No. 31 on defense and are being outgained by 102 yards per game. Facing Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver and Dallas had something to do with it. The Chiefs need a magic elixir to get their season turned around, and they get it in a couple of ways. Andy Reid may be the best NFL coach ever when coming off a bye, as his combined record in Philadelphia and Kansas City is 16-2 straight up and 13-5 ATS. The past 17 times Kansas City has been an away favorite, they have gone 14-3 ATS. Finally, their opponent is the New York Giants, who look like they have checked out. In the past four weeks, they are No. 31 on offense and No. 32 on defense, being outgained by 149 yards per game while losing their past two home games by an average of 25.5 points. Tough to lay big points in the NFL, but this is one situation that you should.
ATS pick: Lean on Kansas City
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants' defense has become diametrically opposed to the unit that was fielded this year, and it starts with the will to play hard all 60 minutes. The Chiefs have faced three opponents that rank outside the top 15 in pass rush, and they put up 42 against the Patriots, 30 against the Raiders and 27 against the Eagles. The Giants' pass rush ranks 28th and just allowed 31 points to one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL: C.J. Beathard of the 49ers. Reid is a wizard when coming off a bye, but while the Chiefs should be productive offensively, Reid won't be able to fix a defense that has ranked 26th in total efficiency and dead last versus the run (albeit against a tough schedule).
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 27, New York 19
ATS pick: New York
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-1.5)
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Houston is down to its backup quarterback, while Arizona may be down to its third-string QB in Blaine Gabbert, who has 40 NFL starts. Arizona had a top-10 defense last season, but let some key players go. The Cardinals held foes to 305 yards per game last year but are still decent with 343 yards per game and are holding foes to five yards per game below their season average. Last season, Houston made the playoffs thanks to a defensive unit that allowed just 300 yards per game. This season, the Texans have lost DE J.J. Watt, LB Whitney Mercilus and LB Brian Cushing. After they allowed 291 yards per game during the first four games, they have given up 398 yards per game since. Watson made Houston a Super Bowl contender, but without him the team is back to below average, with Tom Savage completing 47 percent of his passes. I was not a big Carson Palmer fan at the start of the season, so going to Drew Stanton and perhaps Gabbert is not as big a drop-off. Arizona has won every other week, and this is its week for a victory.
ATS pick: Lean on Arizona
Warren Sharp's take: The world gets to see Gabbert again, as he is expected to start for the Cardinals against the Texans, whose offense continues to sputter. The only way to explain this line movement (from some spots opening at the Cardinals -1 to now favoring the Texans by -2.5) is a continued belief that this Texans defense is better than it actually is. The Texans impressively did trail the Rams by just two points at halftime last week, but a zebra eventually shows its stripes, and after posting a 78 rating in the first half, Savage ended with a 55 rating in the game. And Goff's slow start (first-half rating of 69) was a distant memory after halftime adjustments, and he finished with a 125 rating. The Cardinals may not be as good as their record indicates, with all of their wins coming against bad defenses of the 49ers, Colts and Buccaneers. But the Texans still are a bad defense.
ATS pick: Lean on Arizona
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 21, Arizona 20
Pick: Over 38.5 total points
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: Buffalo is considered a playoff contender by most, but I feel the Bills could be the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 5-4 but are No. 30 in the NFL at minus-68 yards per game (outgained in their past eight games by an average of 101 yards per game). Los Angeles is an underrated team, as the Chargers are just minus-12 yards per game. And while sitting at 3-6 on the year, they have four losses by three points or fewer (amazing 23 losses in their past 41 games by one score or fewer). Buffalo was dominated by New Orleans last week, trailing 47-3 at home, and make a change at quarterback here with rookie Nathan Peterman taking over. I like the Chargers, but two things make this a pass: They are laying more than a field goal with little-to-no home-field edge, and quarterback Philip Rivers is questionable with a concussion.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: After getting steamrolled at home, the Bills made the move to look toward the future by benching Tyrod Taylor. While much of the football community went up in arms about this move, I personally take a more contrarian approach. If Buffalo has recognized that Taylor is not the QB the team wants to build around, why not see what Peterman can do? And even if that results in larger losses which might have been close wins under Taylor, that's still in the best interest of the franchise's future. The Chargers' weakness is their run defense, so the Bills should take a more ground-heavy approach. Although it will be intriguing to see how their run game declines in efficiency now that the threat of the quarterback run with Taylor is no longer an element keeping defensive coordinators awake at night.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles 22, Buffalo 18
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Denver
Phil Steele's take: Denver has lost five straight games by double-digits and by an average of 19.4 points per game. The Broncos look like one of the weakest teams in the NFL, but I think they may be one of the most underrated. Remember they opened the season 3-1 and whipped Dallas 42-17. They were way overconfident versus the Giants as a huge favorite, and despite a 412-266 yardage edge, they lost by 13. The past three weeks, they have lost at Kansas City, at Philadelphia and at home against New England. Most teams in the NFL would be 0-3 versus that gauntlet. The Broncos still have the No. 4 defense in the NFL, and despite their 3-6 record, they are actually plus-35 yards per game. The Bengals are also 3-5 with wins over Cleveland on the road and against the Bills and Colts at home. They are on the third game of a three-game road trip. In their past three road games, they have been outpaced on first downs 84-34! Not only are the Bengals a travel-weary team, but Denver has its altitude advantage amplified by playing a second straight home game in a must-win situation.
ATS pick: Denver
Erin Rynning's take: It's clear, and predictably so, that quarterback Brock Osweiler is not the answer to the Broncos' problems on offense. That is troubling, since the Broncos will face a sturdy defense in the Bengals in this matchup. In addition, Osweiler is nursing a sore throwing shoulder. Also, it's clear that Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor won't be able to fix the Bengals' offense midseason. The Bengals rank dead last in yards per game, averaging a pathetic 274. Obviously, the Broncos' defense has shown issues the past two weeks, but the talented unit gets a major step down in class after the Patriots and Eagles.
Pick: Under 39 total points
Warren Sharp's take: If there ever was the potential for a get-right spot for the Broncos, who have dropped five in a row since their bye week, it would be this game against the Bengals. The Bengals have the 24th-ranked offense, the worst the Broncos have faced this season, and field an offensive line which ranks 28th in pass protection. That could jump-start the pass rush of the Broncos and help minimize the damage from the Bengals. But it still will be on the Broncos' offense to produce, and this Denver offense ranks 25th despite playing the second-easiest schedule of opposing defenses.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Denver 19, Cincinnati 18
ATS pick: Cincinnati and the under
New England Patriots (-7) at Oakland Raiders
Total: 55
PickCenter public consensus pick: 85 percent New England
Note: This game will be played in Mexico City.
Phil Steele's take: New England was everyone's choice to win the Super Bowl, as tight end Rob Gronkowski rejoined quarterback Tom Brady and the offense. In the Patriots' first four games, their defense was overwhelmed. However, they allowed 32 points per game and came out victorious just twice. Since then, they are 5-0 and their defense has allowed just 13.4 points per game, covering the last three. They stayed in high altitude to practice this week after playing in Denver last week, so they should be well-acclimated to the elevation of Mexico City. Oakland looked great early at 2-0 but is just 2-5 since with Derek Carr missing a game-and-a-half. The Raiders' only two wins came by one and three points. Interestingly, over the past four weeks, New England is only plus-21 yards per game, while Oakland is plus-8 yards per game. Oakland has a couple of edges with Carr back to 100 percent health. The Raiders are 5-0 ATS coming off a bye, and Oakland (slight home-field edge as one of Mexico City's favorite teams) made the trip here last year, beating Houston.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The 2017 NFL season has eroded from an offensive perspective, but that shouldn't be the case with this quarterback showdown. The Raiders have failed to put everything together this season with the onus pointing clearly at the defense; they are downright questionable in the secondary, which of course is bad news when matched up against Brady and the Patriots. The Raiders still have Carr, who most likely hasn't played his best football of the season yet. A back injury curtailed the early portion of the season for Carr, while his sharpness had perked up before the bye.
Pick: Over 55 total points
Warren Sharp's take: No matchups are good for this Raiders defense against the Patriots. Diving into one interesting angle, the Raiders have faced truly terrible teams at passing to their RBs. To be precise, they have played the fifth-easiest schedule of RB-pass offenses, and by far the No. 1 easiest since Week 4; yet despite this easy schedule, the Raiders' defense ranks fifth worst against RB passes. The Patriots' offense has faced the No. 1 most difficult schedule of RB-pass defenses, and despite that, they rank third best in RB-pass offense. Look for New England RB Rex Burkhead, targeted on 33 percent of his routes and playing more than ever (51 percent of offensive snaps last week), to be a big beneficiary. The Raiders' defense is simply bad against running backs and tight ends, and that's the wheelhouse of the Patriots.
Pick: Lean on over 55 total points
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 29, Oakland 23
ATS pick: Oakland and the under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 11 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: With Mitchell Trubisky as the starter Chicago is 4-1 ATS. I pointed out last week that the Bears are great as a home 'dog at 8-1-1 ATS, but they had not been a division home favorite in three years and they lost outright to a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers. The Bears are back in their preferred home 'dog role, where they upset Pittsburgh and Carolina and gave Atlanta and Minnesota all they could handle. Chicago's defense is holding foes to 31 yards per game below their season average. Detroit beat Cleveland by 14 last week but was outgained 413-345 and trailed 24-17 versus the winless Browns. Cleveland blew scoring opportunities at the Lions' 2-yard line before the half and at the Lions' 4 at the end of the game. Detroit is just 2-6-1 ATS as a division away favorite, and last season in Chicago, the Lions were favored by three and lost outright, being outgained 408-263. I like the home 'dog here.
ATS pick: Lean on Chicago
Warren Sharp's take: This game comes down to two things for the Bears: pass rush and their run game. The Bears' run game was shut down and humiliated last week against the Packers, and while I'm down on the Packers' defense in general, technically they do rank eighth in run defense. The Lions' run defense ranks 18th, and the Trubisky-led Bears have never failed to cover when catching points against run defenses that rank outside of the top 10. Lastly, the Bears actually have the second-ranked pass rush in the league and the Lions are 0-3 against top-10 pass rushes this season, losing at home to the Panthers and Steelers and dropping a road game in New Orleans.
ATS pick: Chicago
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 21, Chicago 18
ATS pick: Under 41 total points
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 37
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: While Cleveland is 0-9 straight up and just 2-7 ATS this season, the Browns are only minus-3 yards per game. They have done a good bulk of their damage late in games when trailing big, however they're clearly not as good as the stats would indicate. Quarterback DeShone Kizer is completing just 53 percent of his passes with a 4:12 TD:INT ratio, which doesn't translate into success here. Cleveland is 2-2 ATS at home this season with a trio of three-point losses and a blowout loss to Cincinnati. The Browns appear to match up well, as they have a tough run defense, and while they allow 69 percent completions, they're facing Blake Bortles (59 percent completions this season). Jacksonville is just 1-1 as an away favorite the past six years and has not been a touchdown-plus favorite on the road since 2008. The Jaguars have been an up-and-down team all season. Last week, I sided with the Chargers as a big 'dog against them, and Jacksonville was fortunate to escape with the three-point overtime win. This is the Jaguars' week to be firing on all cylinders, and in their last road game, they beat Indianapolis 27-0 with a 518-232 yardage edge (Colts led Cleveland 28-7 with the Browns getting a couple of garbage touchdowns earlier this season). Cleveland is 4-11-1 ATS since 2015 as a home 'dog. Finally, the Jags are No. 3 in the NFL in combined performances versus opponent averages, holding foes to 44 yards per game below their season average and gaining 43 yards per game more than their opponents normally allow.
ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: Cleveland quite nearly pulled off an upset in Detroit but still lost by two TDs, which tells you all you need to know about the Browns' season. After playing a below-average Chargers run defense, the Jaguars must face the second-rated Browns run defense, the one shining jewel on the rusted crown of the Browns. Last week, the Jaguars decided to simply remove running back Leonard Fournette, who was struggling to perform against the Chargers, from the game entirely and let Bortles throw the ball all over the field. That option won't be on the table in Cleveland, especially with the weather. This could make the Jaguars rely on the run game even if it's not working up to par. Meanwhile, the Browns' offense is unlikely to have much success themselves, and will likewise have to rely on their run game.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Cleveland 14
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: I mentioned earlier in the year that the Packers were an average team, but Rodgers gave them Super Bowl aspirations. With Brett Hundley under center, they lost to a couple of playoff contenders at home in the Saints and Lions (minus-165 yards per game). Last week, Green Bay surprised me and won on the road 23-16 and now gets another beatable opponent at home. Baltimore does have the No. 6 defense in the NFL, but quarterback Joe Flacco is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with an 8:10 TD:INT ratio (offense is No. 30 in the league). The Ravens are 2-9 in their past 11 road games, but they are also 7-2 ATS when coming off a bye. While the Packers lost running back Aaron Jones last week, they will be in a circle-the-wagons mode, knowing they need to earn a victory at Lambeau this weekend.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Warren Sharp's take: There is a clear pattern for the Ravens' performances this season: They faced four defenses ranked inside the top 10 (Jaguars, Steelers, Bears and Vikings) and went 0-4, losing by a combined score of 56-121. The Ravens faced five defenses ranked outside the top 10 (Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins and Titans) and went 4-1, winning by a combined score of 134-50. The Packers' defense ranks 18th, and the Ravens' offense, despite ranking 27th overall, should be able to move the ball enough on the ground and in the air to put up enough points. I'm still far from sold on the Hundley-led Packers offense, and while Hundley has yet to face an easy defense (Saints, Lions and Bears all rank inside the top 11), the Ravens' third-ranked defense coming off a bye will be his toughest test yet.
ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 20, Baltimore 19
ATS pick: Green Bay and the over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (PK)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Tampa Bay
Phil Steele's take: These two teams were involved in games that delivered me ATS winners last week. Tampa Bay was a home 'dog to the New York Jets and led 15-3 before allowing a touchdown with :28 left. The Bucs get receiver Mike Evans back this week, and while they are 0-4 on the road, they did almost beat a stronger Buffalo team up North with a 447-434 yardage edge. They get to stay in Florida for this one. Last season, the Buccaneers were talked about as a possible playoff team but opened the season 3-5 and were written off. They won their next five, finished 9-7 and just missed the playoffs (minus-22 yards per game). That surge had them a trendy playoff pick this year, but they opened 2-6 and were written off. The defense had six sacks last week after having just eight sacks in the first eight games. I had Miami near the bottom of the NFL at the start of the season, and the Dolphins used smoke and mirrors (including some big comebacks) and opened 4-2. They have lost their past three and are only a garbage touchdown and two-point conversion versus Oakland from being 0-3 ATS in that stretch. Miami is minus-66 yards on the season, and I will call for another Tampa Bay upset with the Dolphins 2-10-2 ATS as a home favorite.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay
Warren Sharp's take: Whichever team is lucky enough to hook Miami as its weekly opponent is happy. These Dolphins allowed 45 points and almost 300 rushing yards to an otherwise totally inept Panthers rushing offense. After four weeks of playing progressively more difficult pass defenses -- and with quarterback Jameis Winston playing injured for the past two -- the Buccaneers finally got a win against the Jets last week. Now they face the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense. Tampa Bay is one of the most pass-heavy offenses, so backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should find a lot to like in this matchup, particularly with the reinstatement of Evans following his one-game suspension.
ATS pick: Tampa Bay
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 22, Miami 20
ATS pick: Tampa Bay
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: I feel this is a matchup of two "go with" teams, as both sit atop their respective divisions. Minnesota has the No. 9 offense and No. 5 defense in the NFL and outgains its foes by an average of 391-274 at home. This is the Vikings' only home game in a five-week span, and they are a solid 12-3 ATS the past three seasons as a home favorite. I have been riding the Rams since their home loss to Seattle, when they had a 375-241 yardage edge. They are 4-0 straight up and ATS since winning by 10, 33, 34 and 26. Their past two games have been versus the lowly New York Giants and a Houston Texans squad minus quarterback Deshaun Watson. Los Angeles was outgained in each of its first three road games, and Minnesota has a great home-field edge. Rams quarterback Jared Goff is getting a lot of accolades, but the last time he took on a top-notch defense on the road, he was just 11-for-21 passing for 107 yards versus the Jaguars. I cannot go against either of these teams but will be looking to play on the loser next week.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: Ton of credit for Sean McVay & Co. with their massive turnaround of the Rams' offense, including the development of Goff. Their schedule has fallen right while void of strong defensive opposition. That will certainly change in this matchup against the talented and third-ranked Vikings defense, which is allowing 4.7 yards per play. The Rams' defense has quietly developed under the tutelage of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as well. The Vikings have performed admirably under signal-caller Case Keenum, but the Rams' front will create issues for his limited skill set.
Pick: Under 46 total points
Warren Sharp's take: Possibly the best game of the weekend that no one expected. While I was higher than many on Goff's prospects this season, I certainly didn't picture a 7-2 record through nine games. And while I took the over in the Vikings' win total, there was no doubt I thought the ticket was trash after losing quarterback Sam Bradford for what could be the rest of the season following Week 1. Yet here the Vikings are, at 7-2 as well. I think venue plays a big role in this game. The Vikings' offense has been a massive surprise, ranking seventh in efficiency despite facing the most difficult schedule of defenses. When they have faced tough defenses at home (Ravens, No. 3, and Saints, No. 5), they rolled. But in Keenum's first game on the road against a good defense (Steelers, No. 4), they were terrible. The Rams have produced regardless of venue, but they naturally haven't done nearly as well against good defenses. Against defenses ranked 13th or better, they are just 1-2, being held to 10 points against the Redskins, 10 against the Seahawks and 27 against the Jaguars (although they saw a 103-yard kickoff return TD and a blocked punt TD in that game, the offense scored just 13 points).
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 25, Los Angeles 24
ATS pick: Los Angeles and the over
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Total: 51.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: Keenum threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns versus this Redskins defense in Washington. The Redskins now face Drew Brees in the dome. Brees isn't the only reason this Saints team has gone from 7-9 to one of the best in the NFL. Brees now has a pair of solid running backs to turn to in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The biggest difference is the defense, which gave up an average of 391 yards per game in the three-year stretch from 2014-16. Since allowing 512.5 yards per game in their first two games this year, the Saints' defense has transformed into one of the NFL's best, allowing just 255 yards per game the past seven games! Washington is coming off a couple of misleading finals as the Redskins were outgained 437-244 by Seattle but came out with a win. Last week, they trailed Minnesota 38-17 and had a 133-41 yardage edge after that. The Saints led Buffalo on the road 47-3 last week before allowing a late score. The Saints are two points away from a perfect 7-0 ATS run, and I am not jumping in front of that train.
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans
Warren Sharp's take: The Redskins' offensive line is finally getting healthy, which is a big edge given their state the past couple of weeks. The problem for the Redskins in this matchup is that they really don't have much of a run game. They are a very balanced team, but are forced due to injury to rely on rookie Samaje Perine; while I love his ability and long-term future, he has not fared particularly well this season. And the reason this is such a problem is because the Saints' run defense ranks 25th, despite facing the 27th-rated schedule of run offenses. The Redskins' best strategy would be to try to use the Saints' own game plan against them: Run the ball and keep Brees on the sideline. But that is unlikely to happen. And while the year-to-date numbers for the Redskins' run defense look good (12th), that rank was largely earned with better personnel. The Redskins lost key DT Jonathan Allen and LB Mason Foster in late September, and just lost Foster's replacement, Will Compton, to IR this past week.
ATS pick: Washington
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 32, Washington 22
ATS pick: New Orleans and the over
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: Coming into last week, favorites of nine points or more were just 3-6 ATS, but went 2-1 last week. The Chiefs opened 5-0 and were anointed the best team in the NFL, but they have struggled since, going 1-3. In the past four weeks' rankings, they are just No. 20 on offense, No. 31 on defense and are being outgained by 102 yards per game. Facing Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver and Dallas had something to do with it. The Chiefs need a magic elixir to get their season turned around, and they get it in a couple of ways. Andy Reid may be the best NFL coach ever when coming off a bye, as his combined record in Philadelphia and Kansas City is 16-2 straight up and 13-5 ATS. The past 17 times Kansas City has been an away favorite, they have gone 14-3 ATS. Finally, their opponent is the New York Giants, who look like they have checked out. In the past four weeks, they are No. 31 on offense and No. 32 on defense, being outgained by 149 yards per game while losing their past two home games by an average of 25.5 points. Tough to lay big points in the NFL, but this is one situation that you should.
ATS pick: Lean on Kansas City
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants' defense has become diametrically opposed to the unit that was fielded this year, and it starts with the will to play hard all 60 minutes. The Chiefs have faced three opponents that rank outside the top 15 in pass rush, and they put up 42 against the Patriots, 30 against the Raiders and 27 against the Eagles. The Giants' pass rush ranks 28th and just allowed 31 points to one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL: C.J. Beathard of the 49ers. Reid is a wizard when coming off a bye, but while the Chiefs should be productive offensively, Reid won't be able to fix a defense that has ranked 26th in total efficiency and dead last versus the run (albeit against a tough schedule).
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 27, New York 19
ATS pick: New York
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-1.5)
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Houston is down to its backup quarterback, while Arizona may be down to its third-string QB in Blaine Gabbert, who has 40 NFL starts. Arizona had a top-10 defense last season, but let some key players go. The Cardinals held foes to 305 yards per game last year but are still decent with 343 yards per game and are holding foes to five yards per game below their season average. Last season, Houston made the playoffs thanks to a defensive unit that allowed just 300 yards per game. This season, the Texans have lost DE J.J. Watt, LB Whitney Mercilus and LB Brian Cushing. After they allowed 291 yards per game during the first four games, they have given up 398 yards per game since. Watson made Houston a Super Bowl contender, but without him the team is back to below average, with Tom Savage completing 47 percent of his passes. I was not a big Carson Palmer fan at the start of the season, so going to Drew Stanton and perhaps Gabbert is not as big a drop-off. Arizona has won every other week, and this is its week for a victory.
ATS pick: Lean on Arizona
Warren Sharp's take: The world gets to see Gabbert again, as he is expected to start for the Cardinals against the Texans, whose offense continues to sputter. The only way to explain this line movement (from some spots opening at the Cardinals -1 to now favoring the Texans by -2.5) is a continued belief that this Texans defense is better than it actually is. The Texans impressively did trail the Rams by just two points at halftime last week, but a zebra eventually shows its stripes, and after posting a 78 rating in the first half, Savage ended with a 55 rating in the game. And Goff's slow start (first-half rating of 69) was a distant memory after halftime adjustments, and he finished with a 125 rating. The Cardinals may not be as good as their record indicates, with all of their wins coming against bad defenses of the 49ers, Colts and Buccaneers. But the Texans still are a bad defense.
ATS pick: Lean on Arizona
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 21, Arizona 20
Pick: Over 38.5 total points
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: Buffalo is considered a playoff contender by most, but I feel the Bills could be the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 5-4 but are No. 30 in the NFL at minus-68 yards per game (outgained in their past eight games by an average of 101 yards per game). Los Angeles is an underrated team, as the Chargers are just minus-12 yards per game. And while sitting at 3-6 on the year, they have four losses by three points or fewer (amazing 23 losses in their past 41 games by one score or fewer). Buffalo was dominated by New Orleans last week, trailing 47-3 at home, and make a change at quarterback here with rookie Nathan Peterman taking over. I like the Chargers, but two things make this a pass: They are laying more than a field goal with little-to-no home-field edge, and quarterback Philip Rivers is questionable with a concussion.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: After getting steamrolled at home, the Bills made the move to look toward the future by benching Tyrod Taylor. While much of the football community went up in arms about this move, I personally take a more contrarian approach. If Buffalo has recognized that Taylor is not the QB the team wants to build around, why not see what Peterman can do? And even if that results in larger losses which might have been close wins under Taylor, that's still in the best interest of the franchise's future. The Chargers' weakness is their run defense, so the Bills should take a more ground-heavy approach. Although it will be intriguing to see how their run game declines in efficiency now that the threat of the quarterback run with Taylor is no longer an element keeping defensive coordinators awake at night.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles 22, Buffalo 18
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Denver
Phil Steele's take: Denver has lost five straight games by double-digits and by an average of 19.4 points per game. The Broncos look like one of the weakest teams in the NFL, but I think they may be one of the most underrated. Remember they opened the season 3-1 and whipped Dallas 42-17. They were way overconfident versus the Giants as a huge favorite, and despite a 412-266 yardage edge, they lost by 13. The past three weeks, they have lost at Kansas City, at Philadelphia and at home against New England. Most teams in the NFL would be 0-3 versus that gauntlet. The Broncos still have the No. 4 defense in the NFL, and despite their 3-6 record, they are actually plus-35 yards per game. The Bengals are also 3-5 with wins over Cleveland on the road and against the Bills and Colts at home. They are on the third game of a three-game road trip. In their past three road games, they have been outpaced on first downs 84-34! Not only are the Bengals a travel-weary team, but Denver has its altitude advantage amplified by playing a second straight home game in a must-win situation.
ATS pick: Denver
Erin Rynning's take: It's clear, and predictably so, that quarterback Brock Osweiler is not the answer to the Broncos' problems on offense. That is troubling, since the Broncos will face a sturdy defense in the Bengals in this matchup. In addition, Osweiler is nursing a sore throwing shoulder. Also, it's clear that Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor won't be able to fix the Bengals' offense midseason. The Bengals rank dead last in yards per game, averaging a pathetic 274. Obviously, the Broncos' defense has shown issues the past two weeks, but the talented unit gets a major step down in class after the Patriots and Eagles.
Pick: Under 39 total points
Warren Sharp's take: If there ever was the potential for a get-right spot for the Broncos, who have dropped five in a row since their bye week, it would be this game against the Bengals. The Bengals have the 24th-ranked offense, the worst the Broncos have faced this season, and field an offensive line which ranks 28th in pass protection. That could jump-start the pass rush of the Broncos and help minimize the damage from the Bengals. But it still will be on the Broncos' offense to produce, and this Denver offense ranks 25th despite playing the second-easiest schedule of opposing defenses.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Denver 19, Cincinnati 18
ATS pick: Cincinnati and the under
New England Patriots (-7) at Oakland Raiders
Total: 55
PickCenter public consensus pick: 85 percent New England
Note: This game will be played in Mexico City.
Phil Steele's take: New England was everyone's choice to win the Super Bowl, as tight end Rob Gronkowski rejoined quarterback Tom Brady and the offense. In the Patriots' first four games, their defense was overwhelmed. However, they allowed 32 points per game and came out victorious just twice. Since then, they are 5-0 and their defense has allowed just 13.4 points per game, covering the last three. They stayed in high altitude to practice this week after playing in Denver last week, so they should be well-acclimated to the elevation of Mexico City. Oakland looked great early at 2-0 but is just 2-5 since with Derek Carr missing a game-and-a-half. The Raiders' only two wins came by one and three points. Interestingly, over the past four weeks, New England is only plus-21 yards per game, while Oakland is plus-8 yards per game. Oakland has a couple of edges with Carr back to 100 percent health. The Raiders are 5-0 ATS coming off a bye, and Oakland (slight home-field edge as one of Mexico City's favorite teams) made the trip here last year, beating Houston.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The 2017 NFL season has eroded from an offensive perspective, but that shouldn't be the case with this quarterback showdown. The Raiders have failed to put everything together this season with the onus pointing clearly at the defense; they are downright questionable in the secondary, which of course is bad news when matched up against Brady and the Patriots. The Raiders still have Carr, who most likely hasn't played his best football of the season yet. A back injury curtailed the early portion of the season for Carr, while his sharpness had perked up before the bye.
Pick: Over 55 total points
Warren Sharp's take: No matchups are good for this Raiders defense against the Patriots. Diving into one interesting angle, the Raiders have faced truly terrible teams at passing to their RBs. To be precise, they have played the fifth-easiest schedule of RB-pass offenses, and by far the No. 1 easiest since Week 4; yet despite this easy schedule, the Raiders' defense ranks fifth worst against RB passes. The Patriots' offense has faced the No. 1 most difficult schedule of RB-pass defenses, and despite that, they rank third best in RB-pass offense. Look for New England RB Rex Burkhead, targeted on 33 percent of his routes and playing more than ever (51 percent of offensive snaps last week), to be a big beneficiary. The Raiders' defense is simply bad against running backs and tight ends, and that's the wheelhouse of the Patriots.
Pick: Lean on over 55 total points
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 29, Oakland 23
ATS pick: Oakland and the under
