Well... CG Technology says...
"We've had a 7-to-1 ratio on tickets written with the Patriots and for every $230 bet on the Patriots were getting a dollar on the Raiders. It's a larger disparity in the other game where the Eagles have a 19-to-1 ratio in tickets written, $35,000 bet on the Eagles and just $410 on the Cowboys."
and there's also this
The New England Patriots said Friday that right tackle Marcus Cannon and center David Andrews will be sidelined Sunday for a game against the Oakland Raiders at Azteca Stadium.
Cannon, who had an ankle injury and also missed last Sunday’s game at Denver, and Andrews, who has an illness, represent 40 percent of the offensive line. LaAdrian Waddle is expected to replace Cannon and Ted Karras should take over for Andrews.
Also, wide receivers Chris Hogan (shoulder) and Matthew Slater (hamstring) were ruled out after not practicing all week.
"We've had a 7-to-1 ratio on tickets written with the Patriots and for every $230 bet on the Patriots were getting a dollar on the Raiders. It's a larger disparity in the other game where the Eagles have a 19-to-1 ratio in tickets written, $35,000 bet on the Eagles and just $410 on the Cowboys."
and there's also this
The New England Patriots said Friday that right tackle Marcus Cannon and center David Andrews will be sidelined Sunday for a game against the Oakland Raiders at Azteca Stadium.
Cannon, who had an ankle injury and also missed last Sunday’s game at Denver, and Andrews, who has an illness, represent 40 percent of the offensive line. LaAdrian Waddle is expected to replace Cannon and Ted Karras should take over for Andrews.
Also, wide receivers Chris Hogan (shoulder) and Matthew Slater (hamstring) were ruled out after not practicing all week.
Most money is on Pats. Maybe you are seeing alot of people here who on on the Raiders. I assume that is what you meant. Raiders are improving and on a neutral field getting more than a touchdown off a bye. Pats aren't going to destroy everyone. We shall see what happens. Don't have a strong opinion myself
Well people see NE as a team that gets taxed each week due to public bettng. This is true of Pitt, (often) Dallas (not this week so much) and NYG when they are good. Probably GB too when they have Rodgers. But especially NE.
All that said, when I saw I could get -6.5 on a neutral field I was all over it. NE was laying a similar spread in Denver where they are terrible. Going to Mexico city is the type of thing where good coaching helps. NE has stayed out West since the Denver trip. Also, NE''s defense is still ranked low in yards against, but have quietly gone from giving up 30 ppg to 21 or so, giving up (in last 5 games): 16, 13, 7, 17, 14. That is 13.6 ppg over a fairly large sample size.
These haven't been great offenses, though ATL getting 7 is good. Also, even among those point totals, so much of those points (Denver, ATL, TB) occurred in garbage time, when Pat's had 90+ percent win probability sometimes 99+ percent. These are garbage time points
Also, when NE gave up 30+ ppg it seemed like they had the worst defense in NFL history. And they were garbage and Gilmore could not get assignments right, and there were problems with the front 7 (they still have a weak pass rush, but they don't blitz much). But in hindsight, some of those teams that scored a lot of points are a lot better than we thought at the time. KC, NO, Houston (With Watson!), and Carolina were the first 4 games that led to a 2-2 record and scored 30+ ppg. So while they still rank low in yards overall, the defense has been very solid since week 5. Giving up
So for many of these games they have been absolutley terrific with Red Zone defense, special teams etc....
Now garbage time points matter, but if you can get 6.5 a backdoor is less of a threat than 7 or higher. That key number was enough for me to join the squares on NE. Also, did you notice how NE was throwing the ball, not running out clock vs Denver, even when up by 3 scores, late in the 4th. They seem to be finding a groove on offense. And I think they will try to score even when leading.
One concern is an injury to center, David Andrews. They also have a backup OT, but Waddle handled Von Miller, so I more worried about Andrews. But all things considered I like the Pat's a lot today. ALso look for health of Malcom Brown, a key run defense guy and Eric Rowe whose size will help wih coverage of Cooper.
Also, I will add, the Pat's are extremely high scoring in first half and 2nd QTR in particular. THey have scored in their final possession in 2nd QTR in 7 of 9 games. So I would consider FH Team Total/spread etc... as well.
All that said, when I saw I could get -6.5 on a neutral field I was all over it. NE was laying a similar spread in Denver where they are terrible. Going to Mexico city is the type of thing where good coaching helps. NE has stayed out West since the Denver trip. Also, NE''s defense is still ranked low in yards against, but have quietly gone from giving up 30 ppg to 21 or so, giving up (in last 5 games): 16, 13, 7, 17, 14. That is 13.6 ppg over a fairly large sample size.
These haven't been great offenses, though ATL getting 7 is good. Also, even among those point totals, so much of those points (Denver, ATL, TB) occurred in garbage time, when Pat's had 90+ percent win probability sometimes 99+ percent. These are garbage time points
Also, when NE gave up 30+ ppg it seemed like they had the worst defense in NFL history. And they were garbage and Gilmore could not get assignments right, and there were problems with the front 7 (they still have a weak pass rush, but they don't blitz much). But in hindsight, some of those teams that scored a lot of points are a lot better than we thought at the time. KC, NO, Houston (With Watson!), and Carolina were the first 4 games that led to a 2-2 record and scored 30+ ppg. So while they still rank low in yards overall, the defense has been very solid since week 5. Giving up
So for many of these games they have been absolutley terrific with Red Zone defense, special teams etc....
Now garbage time points matter, but if you can get 6.5 a backdoor is less of a threat than 7 or higher. That key number was enough for me to join the squares on NE. Also, did you notice how NE was throwing the ball, not running out clock vs Denver, even when up by 3 scores, late in the 4th. They seem to be finding a groove on offense. And I think they will try to score even when leading.
One concern is an injury to center, David Andrews. They also have a backup OT, but Waddle handled Von Miller, so I more worried about Andrews. But all things considered I like the Pat's a lot today. ALso look for health of Malcom Brown, a key run defense guy and Eric Rowe whose size will help wih coverage of Cooper.
Also, I will add, the Pat's are extremely high scoring in first half and 2nd QTR in particular. THey have scored in their final possession in 2nd QTR in 7 of 9 games. So I would consider FH Team Total/spread etc... as well.
I think he will get plenty of yards, but not points. Pat's have given up 13.6 over their last 5 games, and much of that in garbage time. Their style is conservative, bend don't break. But they have been great at holding teams to FGs. So I fully expect Carr to get 350+ yards. But I doubt the Raiders score 28 points, or something like that.
Meanwhile, Oak defense is as bad, especially secondary and Brady will carve them up.
And the NE secondary is gettig healthy. Gilmore has shaded Evans and DT the last two games he played and did so very well. So he will cover Crabtree or Cooper, and the other gets Butler with help from McCourty. Rowe may be healthy too, whose size will be an asset vs. Cooper.
Anyway, I already laid out why I think NE's scoring defense has figured shit out. They were terrible through first 4 weeks (KC, HOU with Watson, NO, Carolina). So giving up 30+ ppg, is bad, but less bad when we realize those were very good teams. I mean getting carved up by Houston seemed unforgivable at the time. But the Watson carved up every team he played, including SEA.
But Del Rio and Carr were the coaches for 2014, 2015, 2016. I don't think i matter that the 2012, 2013 Raiders, with a different coach and QB, really matter. BYE weeks success is about coaching. So I dont' really care how they performed off a BYE in the pre Del Rio/Carr days.
Still, 3-0 is good for past weeks. It is less convincing to me than the Pat's averaging 25.6 in last 5 weeks and allowing 13.6.
