help! Anyone care to elaborate on how best to bet my picks each week.

Codebreaker · Nov 19, 2017

Thanks, The 4 wins I am particularly impressed with in week 12 were K St, UCLA, TCU and Utah. I was 80% in week 11 and a few guys gave me a lot of shit because I did not post spreads. I don't place my bets till an hour or less before kickoff for a number of reasons. However this week I posted spreads at the time I posted the picks. KU was +37 on Thursday. At 11:31 Sat KU was +39 that was the number I got. By game time KU was +39.5.

Week 13 looks very strong. Lots of great match ups i'm looking forward to evaluating.

I don't need help with picking winners as the last 4 weeks have proven. What I like to learn is better or different techniques for betting the games i pick. Anyone care to share some thoughts with me?

I usually pick around 14 games each week. I'm averaging winning 10-12 games I play. What is the best way to win the most $$ with my picks?

exploited17 · Nov 19, 2017

Well...if you just have an opinion and will probably play but don't now for sure just make sure to show as of right now these are OPINIONS. Games you are for sure betting......make sure to emphasize that. And then on game day post the line you played them at. I know it is a bit tough because people want the plays early(especially as you are provng you can win) I suggest this is the best way if you want to help inform people.

As far as winning and making $$$$ I'm not sure what you are asking since whatever you are doing is working.

nysports · Nov 19, 2017

You’re averaging 10-12 wins out of 14 plays and you want to know what to do? Why would you not play all games individually and for the same amount each week ?

HamGlaze · Nov 19, 2017

Wouldn't one round robin a 7 team parlay or ever how many teams one can round robin?

I don't have very much experience betting round robin's but this would be the way to go I'd think.

Codebreaker · Nov 19, 2017

I play each game and bet them individually. That works fine.

What I'm getting at is more of a math and statistical question. I will come up with 14 games. I know 10-12 will be winners ATS. How many combination 7-8 game ML parlays do I have to play before I hit? I'm only dealing with 3-4 losers. On a $500 dollar bet an 8 team ML parlay (favorites) pays $80,000. $100 pays $16000.

This is a Bayesian probability question. I can lose a lot of 8 game ML parlays at 500 a pop to before I eat up 80K.

exploited17 · Nov 20, 2017

IMO just bet more on the individual games and don't worrry about 8 team parlays. I know it sounds like a great payoff........But if you are confident in winning lets say 66%......just bet more on the games. I know there is a risk to that too....but it is better I think. I don't say don't say NEVER bet one .....but....keep them rare and at a small price

PeePee · Nov 20, 2017

If you are confident you will hit 10 out of 14 on regular basis....Round robin in group of 4-5 teams.... maybe at 5% of your normal wagers... beside the straight bets.

Heatwave · Nov 20, 2017

If you win 10-12 games out of 14 every week, then you should bet them every way possible....SU, round robins, big parlays, little parlays - at 80% all of the expectations on these go way positive.

HW

8ate · Nov 20, 2017

If you win 10/14 plays long term, you will own the universe within one year, just bet 10% of your BR on every game...gl..you will be the best capper of all time...

stump11 · Nov 21, 2017

If you win 10-12 out of 14 every week, stop betting the 2 to 4 games you lose each week! 100% profit! Just kidding thanks for your info!

rolltide · Nov 25, 2017

Serbone · Nov 25, 2017

Hilarious, self proclaimed genius of gambling says he doesn't know how to make bets to maximize...

SmokeyWins · Nov 25, 2017

OMG.... have I missed this place. first off just enjoy the winning because you will not hit 10-12 out of 14 long. just bet the game straight up!! NO parlay and NOP teasers unless its NFL favs of 6-9

StevieRay · Nov 25, 2017

Fade yourself

help! Anyone care to elaborate on how best to bet my picks each week.

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