How to bet Philadelphia at Dallas
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday afternoon
Philadelphia (-4.5) at Dallas
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 82 percent on Philadelphia
Phil Steele
Dallas not only lost Ezekiel Elliott last week, but also was without its star left tackle Tyron Smith (Atlanta's Adrian Clayborn had six sacks!). They also lost linebacker Sean Lee during the game and fell to Atlanta 27-7 with just 233 yards of offense. Dallas is only plus 29 yards per game with those players. Philadelphia is one of the top three teams in the NFL and it recently added Jay Ajayi to join LeGarrette Blount at running back. Carson Wentz has an outstanding 23-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their defense is getting better each week as they are No. 5 in the NFL over the past four weeks with 13 sacks (allowing just 71 yards per game rushing). I have backed the Eagles in five of the past six weeks with the exception being the Carolina game where I passed. With six consecutive covers, I will continue to ride them here.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp
The story of this game is personnel. The Cowboys are without Elliott, Smith and Lee. The most massive of all of these, while it could be surprising to those in fantasy football with an eye to the offenses, is Lee. This defense is totally and completely different without Lee in there, and the numbers support it. Meanwhile, aside from the quarterback, there are no worse players a run-based offense could lose simultaneously than its starting RB and LT. Dak Prescott will be forced to throw the ball more often and drop back without proper blindside protection. We saw the disastrous consequences last week, and the Eagles defensive line can get after opposing quarterbacks. This also marks a battle between former Detroit (now Dallas) offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and former Detroit head coach (now Philadelphia defensive coordinator) Jim Schwartz. Last year the Eagles led in both games heading into the fourth quarter, and held on at home while losing on the road.
ATS pick: Lean on Eagles
Mike Clay
Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Dallas 23 The pick: Philadelphia and the over
John Parolin's prop bets
260.5 passing yards by Carson Wentz (O/U -110)
Wentz is averaging 205 passing yards per game over the past two weeks, a paltry total until you remember they won by a combined total of 51 points. Wentz is plenty capable of 261 yards, the question is will the game script support Wentz throwing that much? Without Elliott and Smith, the Cowboys struggled to move the ball in Week 10 against the Falcons. Dallas mustered 233 yards of offense and Prescott was under siege against Atlanta's pass rush. Should Dallas fall behind, the Eagles (and new running back Ajayi) have been excellent at controlling the clock. Philadelphia is averaging a plus-6:24 time of possession margin, setting up a game that could play out similarly to Philly's past two -- the Eagles led the 49ers 17-0 and the Broncos 31-9 at halftime in their past two games, leaving Wentz without much to do after the break.
An under play is also supported by examining Wentz and Dallas' yards per attempt averages. Wentz is averaging a respectable 7.7 yards per attempt this season, while the Dallas defense is at 6.9. Averaging the two gets a 7.3 yards per attempt average, and for Wentz to hit 261 yards at 7.3 per attempt would require 36 pass attempts. Wentz is averaging 32.3 per game, and has thrown 36 passes only twice -- Weeks 1 and 2, leaving him at seven straight games below 36 passes. Philly could be in line for a good day -- they just won't need Wentz to carry the load.
Pick: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday afternoon
Philadelphia (-4.5) at Dallas
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 82 percent on Philadelphia
Phil Steele
Dallas not only lost Ezekiel Elliott last week, but also was without its star left tackle Tyron Smith (Atlanta's Adrian Clayborn had six sacks!). They also lost linebacker Sean Lee during the game and fell to Atlanta 27-7 with just 233 yards of offense. Dallas is only plus 29 yards per game with those players. Philadelphia is one of the top three teams in the NFL and it recently added Jay Ajayi to join LeGarrette Blount at running back. Carson Wentz has an outstanding 23-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their defense is getting better each week as they are No. 5 in the NFL over the past four weeks with 13 sacks (allowing just 71 yards per game rushing). I have backed the Eagles in five of the past six weeks with the exception being the Carolina game where I passed. With six consecutive covers, I will continue to ride them here.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp
The story of this game is personnel. The Cowboys are without Elliott, Smith and Lee. The most massive of all of these, while it could be surprising to those in fantasy football with an eye to the offenses, is Lee. This defense is totally and completely different without Lee in there, and the numbers support it. Meanwhile, aside from the quarterback, there are no worse players a run-based offense could lose simultaneously than its starting RB and LT. Dak Prescott will be forced to throw the ball more often and drop back without proper blindside protection. We saw the disastrous consequences last week, and the Eagles defensive line can get after opposing quarterbacks. This also marks a battle between former Detroit (now Dallas) offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and former Detroit head coach (now Philadelphia defensive coordinator) Jim Schwartz. Last year the Eagles led in both games heading into the fourth quarter, and held on at home while losing on the road.
ATS pick: Lean on Eagles
Mike Clay
Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Dallas 23 The pick: Philadelphia and the over
John Parolin's prop bets
260.5 passing yards by Carson Wentz (O/U -110)
Wentz is averaging 205 passing yards per game over the past two weeks, a paltry total until you remember they won by a combined total of 51 points. Wentz is plenty capable of 261 yards, the question is will the game script support Wentz throwing that much? Without Elliott and Smith, the Cowboys struggled to move the ball in Week 10 against the Falcons. Dallas mustered 233 yards of offense and Prescott was under siege against Atlanta's pass rush. Should Dallas fall behind, the Eagles (and new running back Ajayi) have been excellent at controlling the clock. Philadelphia is averaging a plus-6:24 time of possession margin, setting up a game that could play out similarly to Philly's past two -- the Eagles led the 49ers 17-0 and the Broncos 31-9 at halftime in their past two games, leaving Wentz without much to do after the break.
An under play is also supported by examining Wentz and Dallas' yards per attempt averages. Wentz is averaging a respectable 7.7 yards per attempt this season, while the Dallas defense is at 6.9. Averaging the two gets a 7.3 yards per attempt average, and for Wentz to hit 261 yards at 7.3 per attempt would require 36 pass attempts. Wentz is averaging 32.3 per game, and has thrown 36 passes only twice -- Weeks 1 and 2, leaving him at seven straight games below 36 passes. Philly could be in line for a good day -- they just won't need Wentz to carry the load.
Pick: Under
