How to bet Atlanta at Seattle
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Atlanta Falcons ad Seattle Seahawks. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on Atlanta
Phil Steele
While Seattle is No. 2 on offense and No. 9 on defense over the past four weeks, they've been unable to get margin over their opponents on the scoreboard, thanks to struggles in the red zone and issues in the kicking game. They now welcome a Falcons squad that ended the Seahawks' Super Bowl hopes a season ago with a victory in the divisional round. Atlanta did put together one of their best performances of 2017 a week ago against the Cowboys, thanks to a dominating defensive effort (allowed just seven points and 233 total yards). With that being said, I like the Seahawks here in a prime-time matchup in front of the "12th Man" as the Atlanta running game could be shorthanded with Devonta Freeman expected to miss the game with a concussion.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Erin Rynning
The Falcons have found it increasingly difficult to recapture their potent offense from a year ago. They currently rank 16th in points per game at 21.9. They'll be without difference-making running back Freeman for this contest, adding to the uphill battle for their offense. Of course, the Seahawks will be shorthanded as well on defense without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman. It will be interesting how the talented unit responds, but I expect everyone to step up their game in this prime-time matchup. Value exists with the Seahawks on their strong home field to garner the win.
Pick: Seahawks
Warren Sharp
The big story in this game, and for good reason, is the injuries to the Seahawks secondary. Long having been the team's strong point, they lost Sherman and Chancellor for the season. They will return the services of Earl Thomas, but this strong secondary will be in for a tough test against a Falcons team which may pass more often because of being without its starting running back, Freeman. Seattle will have to put more on Russell Wilson's plate in hopes of out-dueling Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The benefit here is that the Falcons' pass defense ranks 20th in efficiency and has not played a single pass offense more efficient than the Seahawks, except for the Patriots in the fog. A unique matchup angle is with RB passes -- the Falcons' defense has long struggled in this regard but rank seventh best this year. However, that came against the NFL's easiest slate of RB-pass offenses. Seattle is the second-most efficient RB-pass offense. Despite the massive losses, I'll look for the home field and a strong effort from Seattle's offense to make the difference.
Pick: Lean Seahawks
Mike Clay
Prediction: Seattle 22, Atlanta 19
The pick: Seattle and the under -- SEA -3, 45
John Parolin's prop bets
85.5 receiving yards by Julio Jones (O/U -110)
The most important player in this bet might not even be a Falcon. Simply put, the Seahawks defense is a different unit without Chancellor, who will not play because of a neck injury. Since the start of 2015, Seattle is allowing a 59 percent completion percentage with 6.8 yards per attempt when Chancellor is on the field. Without Chancellor, those numbers jump to 65 percent and 7.2 yards per attempt. Five players this season have totaled more than 85 receiving yards against Seattle, and with Chancellor on the sideline, Julio could make six.
Furthermore, Jones' usage rates are unparalleled, outside of Antonio Brown, with a target on 30.8 percent of his routes run this season. He's had at least eight targets in back-to-back games and four of his past five, averaging 9.2 targets per game in that span. Is that enough? 9.2 targets per game at the 6.8 yards per attempt Seattle has allowed, brings Jones' yardage total to 62.6, well short of the over/under and in line with what Seattle has done to Julio in two career playoff games (59 & 67 yards) -- but those were with Chancellor in the mix.
The play: Over
23.5 completions by Russell Wilson (O/U -110)
On the surface, there's not much either way here -- Wilson averages 23.3 completions per game this season. The Falcons' defense is right around the league average in completions allowed per game -- their 21.7 ranks 15th, just above the 21.4 league average. So what pushes the play to an over? Start with the current state of the Seahawks' offense.
Seattle has really struggled to run the ball, with an average of 3.5 yards per rush since Week 6 that ranks 26th in the league. During that span, Wilson has reached 24 completions in four of his past five games. Wilson's average throw distance on his completions was below 7.5 yards in four of the five games as well, serving as the de facto running game (while also leading the team in rushing). If Seattle can't run, and Atlanta's defense limits the big plays (21 pass plays of at least 20 yards, tied for second fewest in the NFL), then Wilson may not have a choice but to keep it short.
The play: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Atlanta Falcons ad Seattle Seahawks. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on Atlanta
Phil Steele
While Seattle is No. 2 on offense and No. 9 on defense over the past four weeks, they've been unable to get margin over their opponents on the scoreboard, thanks to struggles in the red zone and issues in the kicking game. They now welcome a Falcons squad that ended the Seahawks' Super Bowl hopes a season ago with a victory in the divisional round. Atlanta did put together one of their best performances of 2017 a week ago against the Cowboys, thanks to a dominating defensive effort (allowed just seven points and 233 total yards). With that being said, I like the Seahawks here in a prime-time matchup in front of the "12th Man" as the Atlanta running game could be shorthanded with Devonta Freeman expected to miss the game with a concussion.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Erin Rynning
The Falcons have found it increasingly difficult to recapture their potent offense from a year ago. They currently rank 16th in points per game at 21.9. They'll be without difference-making running back Freeman for this contest, adding to the uphill battle for their offense. Of course, the Seahawks will be shorthanded as well on defense without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman. It will be interesting how the talented unit responds, but I expect everyone to step up their game in this prime-time matchup. Value exists with the Seahawks on their strong home field to garner the win.
Pick: Seahawks
Warren Sharp
The big story in this game, and for good reason, is the injuries to the Seahawks secondary. Long having been the team's strong point, they lost Sherman and Chancellor for the season. They will return the services of Earl Thomas, but this strong secondary will be in for a tough test against a Falcons team which may pass more often because of being without its starting running back, Freeman. Seattle will have to put more on Russell Wilson's plate in hopes of out-dueling Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The benefit here is that the Falcons' pass defense ranks 20th in efficiency and has not played a single pass offense more efficient than the Seahawks, except for the Patriots in the fog. A unique matchup angle is with RB passes -- the Falcons' defense has long struggled in this regard but rank seventh best this year. However, that came against the NFL's easiest slate of RB-pass offenses. Seattle is the second-most efficient RB-pass offense. Despite the massive losses, I'll look for the home field and a strong effort from Seattle's offense to make the difference.
Pick: Lean Seahawks
Mike Clay
Prediction: Seattle 22, Atlanta 19
The pick: Seattle and the under -- SEA -3, 45
John Parolin's prop bets
85.5 receiving yards by Julio Jones (O/U -110)
The most important player in this bet might not even be a Falcon. Simply put, the Seahawks defense is a different unit without Chancellor, who will not play because of a neck injury. Since the start of 2015, Seattle is allowing a 59 percent completion percentage with 6.8 yards per attempt when Chancellor is on the field. Without Chancellor, those numbers jump to 65 percent and 7.2 yards per attempt. Five players this season have totaled more than 85 receiving yards against Seattle, and with Chancellor on the sideline, Julio could make six.
Furthermore, Jones' usage rates are unparalleled, outside of Antonio Brown, with a target on 30.8 percent of his routes run this season. He's had at least eight targets in back-to-back games and four of his past five, averaging 9.2 targets per game in that span. Is that enough? 9.2 targets per game at the 6.8 yards per attempt Seattle has allowed, brings Jones' yardage total to 62.6, well short of the over/under and in line with what Seattle has done to Julio in two career playoff games (59 & 67 yards) -- but those were with Chancellor in the mix.
The play: Over
23.5 completions by Russell Wilson (O/U -110)
On the surface, there's not much either way here -- Wilson averages 23.3 completions per game this season. The Falcons' defense is right around the league average in completions allowed per game -- their 21.7 ranks 15th, just above the 21.4 league average. So what pushes the play to an over? Start with the current state of the Seahawks' offense.
Seattle has really struggled to run the ball, with an average of 3.5 yards per rush since Week 6 that ranks 26th in the league. During that span, Wilson has reached 24 completions in four of his past five games. Wilson's average throw distance on his completions was below 7.5 yards in four of the five games as well, serving as the de facto running game (while also leading the team in rushing). If Seattle can't run, and Atlanta's defense limits the big plays (21 pass plays of at least 20 yards, tied for second fewest in the NFL), then Wilson may not have a choice but to keep it short.
The play: Over
