I seriously doubt it was "public money that moved the line from Seattle -3 to Atlanta -1. That's a hell of a swing off a key number, not to mention the public usually likes small home favs like Seattle was. The public also loves trends such as Seattle winning 11 straight MNF contests & are 13-1 any night in prime-time under Carroll. Both teams need this game badly since both have relatively tough schedules the rest of the way, although Seattle does have Arizona & San Fran mixed in with Philly, LAR, Jacksonville & Dallas (with Elliott back), to give them a breather.
Tonights game is a no touch IMO, way too tough.
When considered with other factors: a powerful tool. Agree though I wouldn't just fade the public blindly unless they have been getting creamed.
Many of these lines are situation and perception. Case in point: Steelers -10.5 vs Shitty Indy and close win by 3 points. Next week they are -7 against a 'better' Titans team (win streak, mariota, etc.) and the public thinks "ah, +7, easy" ... Really there's nothing better than fading a public dog.
The game tonight is a pick -- put your money on the better team and hope for the best. If you lose, at least it was your pick and not a blind fade. Maybe try to buy out of the wager with an in-game bet if you can. I did that last week with NIU.
I personally think Russ Wilson is slow and holds onto the ball like an unfinished cheeseburger he refuses to throw away. That said, Seattle is at home and shit happens all the time in this game -- Like who the hell had the Giants beating KC??
I look at it differently. Pitt -10 was a good line, nobody "wants" Indy against a top notch team like Pittsburg, do they? Pitt came out lethargic, not excited on the road against a bad team, Steelers have been around the block and already confident that they will get into the playoffs with a strong record, no reason to be jacked up. Indy is bad but is a pro team at home, fought hard, covered the spread.
The Titan line was fine, +7 was fair, not deceptive. Mariota is overrated and when they could not run he is not a pocket passer that can make up a deficit. Steelers were up 1) for a national TV game at home and 2) cause Titans were rated as a playoff caliber team.
You are a good capper but I think both lines were right, I do not think either was a trap or Vegas conspiracy for the public (more than any other game).
Right. Professional money usually moves the line, not public money.
If it were as easy as fading the public on prime time games a lot of people would be rich. I think the best advice for OP would be to pick the team that you think will cover the spread or win outright if you got it at PK or go ML. It's too easy to put too much weight into that one factor and go against your original plan.
I think Atlanta is the better team, Tevin Coleman is an upgrade at RB and its well-known that Seattle cannot run the ball. I hope I'm wrong, I have JD Mckissic in FF -- but Atlanta looked good against a banged up Dallas team, why not against a banged up Seattle team?
I'm not playing it, cashing out until Thanksgiving.
Glad I teased Seattle instead of taking +1. Thanks for the discussion and insight guys. Learning more about the “game” every week. And it’s been said on here before but I have to agree, a lot of knowledgeable people on here, no need to ever pay for picks. Follow who you like, ignore who you don’t.
