Thursday 11/23/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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Soccer

UEFA - Europa League

3:05pm ET

Everton v Atalanta

Referee: Jakob Kehlet

Last Head-to-Heads at Everton:
none

Recent Form:
Everton: 1-4-1
Atalanta: 2-2-2

KEY STAT: Everton have won once in seven matches against Serie A opposition

EXPERT VERDICT: Everton are already out of the Europa League and the Premier League strugglers could have their eyes on upcoming domestic matters with a busy schedule leading up to the hectic Christmas period. The Toffees could do without this match and Atalanta can make certain of a place in the knockout stages.

RECOMMENDATION: Atalanta (1)
 

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Rick Needham at Aqueduct

The FALL HIGHWEIGHT Handicap was inaugurated at Belmont Park in 1914. Now restricted to 3-year-olds and up, this race was open to all ages prior to 1959. The inaugural running was won by the 2-year-old-filly Comely. The Racing Secretary must assign at least 140 pounds to the top-weighted horse in this event.
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The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Stakes - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 114

RIVER CITY H. - GRADE 3 FOR THREE-YEARS-OLD AND UPWARD.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 SOME IN TIEME (BRZ) 15/1

# 5 SHINING COPPER 3/1

# 6 REVVED UP 9/2

SOME IN TIEME (BRZ) is tough to overlook as the bet in here especially at a such a nice price. He has a strong distance/surface win record - 3 for 9. SHINING COPPER - Formidable average speed figures in turf route races make this horse a solid choice. Could provide positive profits based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 106. REVVED UP - Must be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last contest. As of late McGaughey has provided bettors with a very strong winning percentage with horses racing in turf route races.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 5

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (5-6) / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)


Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 40 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 8:51P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BAD GRAMMAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days. SUPER DAWN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CORY'S CUTIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1
BAD GRAMMAR
6/1

9/2
6
SUPER DAWN
5/2

9/2
5
CORY'S CUTIE
3/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
BAD GRAMMAR
1

6/1
Front-runner
55

36

64.6

35.4

30.4
9
DAZZLEM QUICK
9

15/1
Front-runner
0

0

52.4

13.5

0.0
3
SILKEN LADY
3

5/1
Front-runner
0

0

44.8

23.4

14.4
6
SUPER DAWN
6

5/2
Front-runner
43

47

29.3

44.7

39.2
7
FANCY CHANCE
7

12/1
Alternator/Stalker
44

35

47.0

28.0

20.5
4
MOCHKLA MOCHKLA
4

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
49

34

65.4

36.0

20.5
5
CORY'S CUTIE
5

3/1
Alternator/Trailer
45

37

33.2

35.1

26.6
10
DESPITE THE WIZARD
10

8/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

19.2

28.0

18.5
8
ZENARINA
8

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

45.8

21.6

8.1
2
GLORYTUNE
2

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

30.8

3.8

0.0
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar

Del Mar - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Place Pick All / 50 Cent Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick 5


Optional Claiming $40,000 • 1 3/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $53,000 • Post: 11:00
(RAIL AT 6 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $32,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED) (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SCANDAL is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * YOU'RE A GOAT (GB): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SCANDAL: Horse has run a Good Race wi thin the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NOVEMBER TALE (IRE): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2
YOU'RE A GOAT (GB)
5/2

9/2
1
SCANDAL
6/1

5/1
3
NOVEMBER TALE (IRE)
6/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
9
CAUSEFORCOMMOTION
9

10/1
Stalker
97

92

80.4

91.6

84.1
6
BOMBILATE
6

3/1
Stalker
101

88

66.4

89.3

78.8
5
ANTONINA (PER)
5

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
98

98

53.1

74.9

63.9
1
SCANDAL
1

6/1
Trailer
97

96

80.4

94.8

88.8
2
YOU'RE A GOAT (GB)
2

5/2
Trailer
101

91

66.2

91.3

85.8
4
SHAZARA
4

8/1
Trailer
96

89

62.0

86.8

76.8
3
NOVEMBER TALE (IRE)
3

6/1
Alternator/Trailer
99

91

64.6

90.6

78.6
7
WISHFUL WINKING
7

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88

87

68.1

81.7

66.2
8
HACKTIVISM
8

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
100

96

67.2

88.4

78.9
 

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The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2016-2017 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE SEPTEMBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 GO GO GOOSE 12/1

# 6 FORGOTTEN 8/1

# 4 VOW ME OVER 8/1

GO GO GOOSE is my selection especially at a such a nice price. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. Is a solid choice - given the 86 speed fig from her most recent race. Has run soundly when moving a turf route race. FORGOTTEN - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this field. VOW ME OVER - Has performed solidly lately in route races, posting a nifty 82 avg Equibase Speed Fig. Overall the speed figures of this pony look decent in this race.
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 1:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: 1

#6 DAWN TRAVELLER (IRE) (ML=1/1)
#7 EVENING JAZZ (ML=7/2)


DAWN TRAVELLER (IRE) - The rider and trainer combination here have a high winning percent when they partner up. Earned a nice turf figure on Nov 2nd at Del Mar. A repeat in today's race, and this one has a great shot to win. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this thoroughbred has the highest speed rating for the dist/surf. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the power to make her presence felt. Recent speed ratings show solid pattern of improvement. I like the hard fact that this filly's last speed rating, 84, is tops in this field. EVENING JAZZ - I am keen on that last contest on October 26th at Golden Gate Fields where she ended up second. This one has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 ROYAL LOOKIN (ML=9/2),

ROYAL LOOKIN - This entrant has been letting down the bettors as the favorite time and time again. I'm always leery of any animal that earns her biggest speed rating on an 'off' track.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 EVENING JAZZ to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #8 - Post: 2:55pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: 4

#7 MAYNOOTH (ML=6/1)
#2 COSMIC HALO (ML=4/1)


MAYNOOTH - Forgive the outside the top 3 finish on the off track last time out. On a fast track, has a shot in this event. Lynch moves this colt to the main track today. Look for a significant improvement from the most recent turf race. COSMIC HALO - I always like to see a thoroughbred getting Lasix for the 1st time. Sacco adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BASS ROCK (ML=3/1), #4 TWO SWORDS (ML=7/2), #6 MY CHINUMADO (ML=4/1),

BASS ROCK - Doesn't appear to have enough good qualities to justify the price. TWO SWORDS - Would have to get much more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 7/2 to play this horse. MY CHINUMADO - Didn't land in the money on October 27th at Laurel. Followed it up with another lackluster performance.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 MAYNOOTH is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass
 

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NFL Week 12

Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4) —
Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.

Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5) — Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.

Giants (2-8 ) @ Redskins (4-6) — Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games


MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/23/2017, 12:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/23/2017, 4:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NY GIANTS (2 - 8 ) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/23/2017, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-93 ATS (-43.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-46 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games

LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants


StatFox Super Situations

MINNESOTA at DETROIT
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games 41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
 

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NFL Thanksgiving Day lines that make you go hmmm...

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

This game actually opened up at Detroit -1 at some offshore sportsbooks. That was quickly corrected by the betting public to where the Vikings are now 3-point favorites. I made Minnesota a 1.5-point favorite with the understanding that public perception says Minnesota should be favored, but by the end of the week, the home dog will certainly be attracting money.

Minnesota seems almost flawless after a dominating performance in Week 11. This team has been playing very well throughout the season and is currently riding a six-game win streak. The key for the Vikings has been their defense - no doubt – and adding to that, there should be some hype in the Vikings locker room regarding the revenge factor and avenging one of just two losses to date.

Detroit has been winning as well and played a tough defensive-minded Chicago team this past week and still racked up 27 points. My gut tells me the Lions will be hungry for the upset and being the home dog may supersede Minnesota’s revenge factor. The last four Thanksgivings have been beneficial to the Lions, winning four straight, and I suspect that money will follow them as we get closer to kickoff.

I think the value is in taking the Lions with as many points as you can. Don’t be surprised if they are the aggressors in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 48)

This one landed on Dallas as a 3.5- point favorite for a split second and has since seen an avalanche of early money on the Chargers, moving this to a pick’em as of this writing. I personally made this Dallas -3 so I agree with the offshores on this one. This one-sided betting is largely due to the public’s short memory and recall. They obviously remember L.A.’s big win over Buffalo and couple opinion that with Philadelphia cluster bombing of the Cowboys Sunday night.

I’m not impressed with Los Angeles’ road results. The two wins were against now recognized bad teams in Oakland and the N.Y. Giants. And although they did rack up some noteworthy points against Buffalo, we all know that was against a first-time starter who threw five interceptions.

The Cowboys had won three in a row against teams on par with the Chargers before they lost twice in the past two weeks to top-tier teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia. This is a must-win game for Dallas, which needs a big victory on national TV to get in position for a playoff run with six weeks to go. I think the emotions will be with Dallas and with the spread at a pick, there’s good value on the home team.

I see this heading back up on Dallas, so grab the low number while you can early in the week.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44)

After watching Washington play some impressive football at New Orleans, only to fold in the fourth quarter, it made me recheck the Redskins’ poor record. What I found was a reasonable explanation: they have played a brutal schedule where losses have come to the hands of Philadelphia twice, a good early Kansas City team, Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans. The last two losses were very competitive.

After analyzing that information, I made this Washington -9. What helps the value here is the Giants’ win over a nose-diving Chiefs team this past weekend. I think a loss there would have seen the opening spread closer to my own number. The Giants are going nowhere and can’t be expected to be emotionally in this game. It’s basically do-or-die for the Hogs, who can ill afford another loss if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Giants broke through for their second win of the season and it’s improbable that they can win two games in a row let alone that it will be on the road. Seven points is a tough number to overcome, but a glance at the New York offense suggests they can’t muster too many points.

Their recent past has seen a downward trend of offense the past four weeks. They’ve lost three of their past four games and their offense is averaging less than 14 points per contest. The way Washington’s offense has played the past two weeks against respectable teams (scoring 30 and 31 points), I just don’t see where the Giants can keep pace.

Though it’s a big number, the value at this level is on Washington.
 

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Thanksgiving Day Edition

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1.5, 44.5)

Vikings' vaunted run defense vs. Lions' limp ground game

The Detroit Lions playing on Thanksgiving is an NFL tradition - and this year's game carries added significance as the Lions look to keep pace with the first-place Minnesota Vikings in an NFL North showdown. The Lions have won three consecutive games but have yet to slice into Minnesota's two-game lead, as the Vikings have reeled off six wins in a row. They'll look to extend that hot streak further on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

While a surprisingly balanced offense led by quarterback Case Keenum has been a factor in the Vikings' rise to the top of the NFC power rankings - alongside the Philadelphia Eagles, of course - it's that vaunted defense that has played the biggest role. Minnesota has allowed more than 17 points just once during the streak, and held one of the league's most formidable attacks at bay last weekend, using a big fourth quarter to subdue the Los Angeles Rams 24-7.

Minnesota squashed the Rams' running game from the start, limiting Todd Gurley and Co. to 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. That has been the trademark of the Vikings' 2017 resurgence - they rank in the top three league-wide in average rushing yards against (77.7), yards per carry allowed (3.3) and fewest rushing first downs allowed (3.8 ). It's no wonder that teams run the ball just 37.4 percent of the time against Minnesota, the second-lowest rate in the league.

The Lions are known for being a pass-first team - they throw the ball nearly 62 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. But when they do run the ball, the results have been ... not good. Detroit ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game (80.8 ), 30th in yards per carry (3.4) and 24th in rushing touchdowns per contest (0.4). Matthew Stafford can't air it out every time - and when Detroit does take to the ground, bettors should expect Minnesota to shut down the run game with emphasis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Chargers' 1-2 sack combo vs. Cowboys' suddenly leaky O-line

It's officially time to panic in Big D, as the Dallas Cowboys enter their annual Thanksgiving foray desperate to improve their suddenly sagging playoff chances. The Cowboys have dropped two in a row and were humiliated at home in their last game, a 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Times have been tough without offensive lineman Tyron Smith, and if he doesn't return this weekend, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might find himself on his back a whole lot.

The last thing a team struggling to protect its quarterback wants to see is a date with the Chargers on the calendar. Los Angeles is in tough to make the postseason - it comes into this one with a disappointing 4-6 mark - but you can't blame the pass rush, which has consistenly been one of the league's best all season long. The Chargers enter Week 12 having compiled 30 sacks to date; only the Jacksonville Jaguars (40) and Pittsburgh Steelers (30) have more.

The catalyst for Los Angeles' QB-chasing prowess: The sensational duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for an incredible 19 sacks between them; Bosa ranks third overall with 10.5 sacks, while Ingram is close behind in seventh (8.5). They're the second-most prolific duo in the league, behind only the Jaguars' tandem of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. An Oct. 1 loss to the Eagles is the only game all season in which neither Bosa nor Ingram recorded a sack.

With two QB hunters as effective as Bosa and Ingram coming to town, you can forgive Prescott for feeling a little antsy. The second-year signal caller has been sacked a whopping 12 times over the past two weeks, as the Cowboys' pass protection has completely faltered in Smith's absence. If he can't go this Thursday, look for Bosa and Ingram to make Prescott run for his life - and in a game that's expected to be close, that could tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)

Giants' big-play D struggles vs. Kirk Cousins' long-pass prowess

The New York Giants have long been eliminated from post-season contention - but they have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks, and would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins' playoff hopes this weekend in an NFC East tussle at FedExField. The Giants shocked the visiting Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 on Sunday, and will look to carry that momentum into conference play, having lost their first seven games to NFC foes. But to do it, they'll need to find a way to contain Kirk Cousins.

The Giants haven't done a lot of things right - and while most of the attention has been focused on the offense, and quarterback Eli Manning in particular, the defense hasn't inspired much confidence, either. New York has been a magnet for big passing plays, allowing quarterbacks an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt - lower than just four other NFL teams. And the Giants rank 28th out of 32 teams in average yards per completed pass against (7.5).

That makes this weekend's showdown with Cousins and the Redskins the perfect test. Cousins has made a career out of throwing the ball downfield, and is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt so far in 2017 - only Tom Brady (8.3), Jared Goff (8.3) and Drew Brees (8.2) have a higher rate. It should come as no surprise, then, that Cousins comes into Week 12 ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (2,796) despite sitting sixth in total attempts (345).

If last week is any indication, the Giants should expect Cousins to be even more vertically inclined than usual. Cousins averaged more than 10 yards per passing attempt in Sunday's stunning overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints, racking up 322 passing yards on 32 throws. And while his 7.98 passing yards per attempt at home ranks slightly below his road mark (8.25), facing a Giants secondary that has been more than generous should bump his home mark above the 8.00 mark for the season.
 

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Week 12 Betting Tidbits For NFL Thanksgiving Day Games

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

The Vikings didn’t look like world beaters when the Lions pushed them out to sea in a 14-7 loss at home in Week 4. But since that setback, Minnesota has won six in a row and covered in five straight games.

The Purple People Eaters are the only team to rank inside the top five in total offense and total defense – and that’s without their preseason first choices at quarterback and running back on the active roster.

The Lions are 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games, but there is one weakness that seems to be getting worse by the week. Detroit gave up 222 yards on the ground to the Bears on Sunday – making it back-to-back outings with opponents rushing for over 200 yards against the club.

The Lions are missing their run-stuffing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The defense allowed just 74.6 rushing yards per game in the five contests with Ngata and 153.8 in the five games without him.

LINE HISTORY: Lots of movement on this line. Many books opened with the Lions giving a point but the spread has moved four points with the Lions now getting 3 points at home. The total is holding at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Vikings.
*The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
*The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC North opponents.
*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five Thanksgiving Day games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 47.5)

All of NFL Twitter is still chuckling at the Bills' decision to start Nathan Peterman against the Chargers, but there should be some credit being given to the Chargers’ pass defense. Los Angeles owns the league’s eighth best passing D and the club allows only 1.2 passing TDs per game. The Bolts are third in sacks per game and they’ve picked off opposing quarterback seven times in their last two games.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a career-worst, three-pick performance on Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The good news for Dallas backers is that Prescott's blindside should be well protected against the Chargers pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram because All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to make his return from a two-game absence.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites but the Bolts are now 1-point road chalk. There hasn’t been as much movement on the total. Most shops are all dealing 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the last six years on Thanksgiving Day.
*The Chargers 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 45)

The Redskins blew a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead with less than three minutes to play at New Orleans on Sunday. The game turned against Washington backers when their team failed to pick up a first down on a third-and-one play with 2:36 left to go and the Saints without any timeouts remaining. The Redskins would have been able to ice the game had they picked up the first down.

Struggling on third and short isn’t out of character for Washington. The squad ranks 26th in the league when trying to pick up a first down on third and one situations. They average negative .43 yards before contact in those spots according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The Giants are coming off an outright win as double-digit dogs against Kansas City last week. Head coach Ben McAdoo got a lot more creative with his play calling in the game by calling the first fake punt in 13 years for the G-Men according to the New York Post. The Giants also had running back Shane Vereen try a pass on a halfback option and threw defensive tackle Robert Thomas in as a fullback on a goal line play. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Washington as 7.5-point home faves and that’s where it stands now although there are a few shops dealing -7 with a little extra juice. The total is holding steady at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The over is 24-7 in Washington’s last 31 games overall.
*The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games between these two divisional rivals.
 

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving

The NFL festivities on Thanksgiving Day will feature a pair of divisional matchups and an intriguing non-conference contest from the Lone Star State. It appears that the oddsmakers have posted strong opening numbers on the three-game card since none of the totals have moved drastically in either direction as of Wednesday afternoon.

Minnesota at Detroit

Divisional matchups have watched the ‘under’ go 29-14 (67%) this season and this particular series has leaned heavily to the low side recently. Seven of the last eight games between the pair have watched the ‘under’ cash and that includes their first meeting this season in Week 4 from Minnesota.

In that outcome, the Lions captured a 14-7 win over the Vikings and the ‘under’ (43½) was never in doubt. This week’s total has been pushed up to 45 and the adjustment is fair considering both clubs have improved offensively since their first meeting.

In the first encounter on Oct. 1, Detroit (251 yards) and Minnesota (284) both struggled moving the ball offensively and the result of the game was clearly based on mistakes. The Vikings fumbled three times, which led to 10 points from the Lions and Minnesota also missed a field goal too.

This was the third start in 2017 for Vikings quarterback Case Keenum and he only completed 53.3 percent of his passes (16-of-30), which has been his worst effort this season. Since that setback, the signal caller has been much better and the Vikings have won six straight games while averaging 27 points per game.

Minnesota’s defense has been very strong the last few seasons and this year’s squad is arguably one of the best in the league. Defensively, the Vikings are ranked fourth in scoring (17.2 PPG) and fifth in total yards (290.5 YPG) while the Lions are near the bottom half of the league in both scoring (23.4 PPG, #19) and yards (354.5 YPG, #23). What’s a little surprising is that Detroit has been worse defensively at home (24.8 PPG) compared to its road numbers (22 PPG). If you like to delve deeper into the analytics, the Vikings defensive unit is ranked third in yards per play (4.7) while Detroit (5.6) sits in the bottom third.

Despite being home ‘dogs, the Lions enter this game with some confidence and a three-game winning streak. They’re averaging 31.6 PPG over this span but the defense has surrendered 21.6 PPG to a trio of teams (Packers, Browns, Bears) that aren’t exactly juggernauts.

Prior to the last three wins, the Lions had dropped three in a row to teams that are expected to make this year's playoffs in the Panthers (27-24), Saints (52-38) and Steelers (20-15). The Vikings are currently on pace to make the postseason as well and you wonder if Detroit can finally show up against a top tier opponent.

Coincidentally, these teams played on Thanksgiving Day last season and the Lions won 16-13. It was the fourth straight win on the holiday for Detroit and also the lowest offensive production by the club during this span.

L.A. Chargers at Dallas

The highest total (47½) on Thursday takes place in the late afternoon matchup and it’s not an easy game to handicap. The Chargers (-2) are listed as road favorites and if you look at the early Week 1-16 odds posted by CG Technology, the Las Vegas betting shop had Dallas (-10) as a healthy favorite.

After a rough 0-4 start, the Chargers have won four of six and their defense has been a big part of that success. They’ve allowed 17.2 PPG in their last six games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 4-2. The Bolts just dropped 54 on the Bills at home last week but that result was assisted with six turnovers caused by their defense.

Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped back-to-back games since running back Ezekiel Elliot started serving his suspension and the offense has been held to a combined 16 points in the losses. QB Dak Prescott has tossed three interceptions and been sacked eight times in his absence. The Cowboys attack will get a boost Thursday with tackle Tyron Smith (groin) returning to the lineup but the defense won’t have linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring).

Dallas has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last three games and when catching points at home, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 in those games which includes last week’s result to Philadelphia.

The Chargers have seen both of their games versus NFC East opponents go ‘over’ this season but Dallas has watched eight of its last 10 games against the AFC go ‘under’ the number.

The Cowboys have been a mess defensively on the holiday recently, allowing 30.8 PPG in their last five Thanksgiving Day games. The Chargers haven’t played on the holiday since 1969 when the franchise was part of the AFL.

N.Y. Giants at Washington

This will be the 12th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving and the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in the first 11 matchups. This year’s contest will feature the Giants visiting the Redskins and the total is hovering between 44 and 45 points at most betting shops. Both clubs are dealing with a ton of injuries and this could turn out to be a real ugly game to watch. You can always bet the Egg Bowl.

The Giants have watched their total results (5-5) go back and forth all season but Washington has posted a 7-3 lean to the ‘over’ and they enter this game off a pair of shootout losses. While the offense has looked decent (30.5 PPG), the defense was torched for 38 and 34 points and they’re now allowing 26.6 PPG on the season. Only the Indianapolis Colts (28 PPG) are below them in scoring defense. Fortunately for Washington, the Giants have not scored more than 30 points in any of the 27 games with Ben McAdoo as head coach.

New York doesn’t have much firepower (308.5 YPG, 16.2 PPG) offensively due to injuries but based on the Redskins defensive form, you wonder if the Giants can muster up some offense especially after beating Kansas City at home last week. That was just New York’s second victory of the season and after the first one (at Denver), they were brought back to life with a 24-7 drubbing to Seattle.

The last four totals in this series have split 2-2 but the two ‘under’ tickets took place at FedEx Field (19-10, 20-14). All four of those numbers ranged from 45 to 47 points. Weather shouldn’t be a major factor but the temperatures will likely fall into the thirties by kickoff.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve written many times before in previous holiday installments, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Minnesota-Detroit 45

Best Under: New York-Washington 44½

Best Team Total: Over Minnesota 23½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Minnesota-Detroit Over 36½
Los Angeles-Dallas Under 55
New York-Washington Under 53
 

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Thanksgiving Day Essentials

Minnesota (-3, 45) at Detroit

Detroit looks to win a fifth consecutive Thanksgiving Day game, a far cry from the days when watching Lions fans sporting paper bags to hide their faces in shame was as reliable a part of this holiday’s tradition as the turkey and stuffing. To extend the run, they’ll have to do so as a home underdog.

The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) flexed a little muscle last Sunday, doing so with a quarterback who arguably wouldn’t be on the roster if Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater had each been healthy in training camp. Bridgewater was expected to miss most, if not all of the season, after tearing up his knee in ’16. Recovery has gone well for him and the former first-round pick is healthy enough to claim his job back. Case Keenum isn’t letting that happen.

Although its tremendous defense has done the heavy lifting, Minnesota has managed to score enough to roll off six straight wins, managing at least 20 points in each of the games. Following a 24-7 home win over the Rams on Sunday, Keenum ranks second in the NFL in QBR behind Houston’s Deshaun Watson and has been sacked only once during the winning streak.

Matthew Stafford has been sacked more than any starting quarterback in the NFL besides Indianapolis’ Jacoby Brissett, surpassing Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. Despite the pressure and an inconsistent running game, he’s been fantastic in spreading the ball around, developing chemistry with Marvin Jones, Jr. in addition to top target Golden Tate. Deep threat Kenny Golladay has gotten healthy of late, so this will be a great test for the Vikings defense, which held Jared Goff and the league’s highest-scoring offense scoreless after surrendering a touchdown on the opening drive.

The Lions (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) come in on a three-game winning streak themselves, which means there will be a large crowd in store at Ford Field as they look to remain a factor in the NFC postseason race. Currently even with Atlanta and Seattle at 6-4, Detroit doesn’t play another team currently above .500 after this one. That makes this a golden opportunity to get a leg up in the Wild Card race, not to mention pulling the Lions within a win in the NFC North race.

Entering the week, the Vikings were a 1/5 lock at Westgate to win the division, while the odds for the Lions coming back to catch them offered an 11/4 payout. That would almost certainly require a win here, which would mark a second straight Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings.

Kicker Matt Prater delivered last year’s win with a 40-yard field goal at the final gun, his second kick inside the final 1:45 after being set up by a Bradford interception with 38 seconds left. The teams entered that game 6-4 and gave Detroit the NFC North lead. Green Bay ended up winning the division, but last year’s game ended up making the difference in the Lions making the playoffs ahead of the Vikes, who finished 8-8.

The Lions won the first meeting of this season in Week 4, prevailing 14-7 in Minneapolis by pitching a scoreless second half against the Keenum-led offense. The Vikings literally fumbled the game away, coughing it up three times, so they should be a determined group looking to avoid a season sweep for the second straight year. The Vikings haven’t lost four straight against the Lions since 1963.

Rookie RB Dalvin Cook was still terrorizing defenses and scored Minnesota’s only touchdown in the first meeting, but has since been lost for the seasons. Latavius Murray has his shake back and scored two touchdowns last season, while Jerick McKinnon is jumping over people when he can’t go through them, so their rushing attack remains a threat. Adam Thielen’s 916 receiving yards give him the third-largest output through 10 games behind Randy Moss in the team annals, while Stefon Diggs’ hamstring injury has improved, so Keenum still has plenty of help as he looks to fare better against Detroit’s defense than he did on Oct. 1.

The Vikings have scored an average of 12 points in their three losses to Detroit, so taking some shots downfield may be part of the game plan. If Ziggy Ansah (back) misses another game, the Lions will be down their most effective pass rusher. He’s the main injury concern for either team. The Vikings welcomed back DE Everson Griffen last week and will have their secondary intact with Xavier Rhodes and Andrew Sendejo cleared to work for a group that surrendered their lowest-scoring output of the season.

The Lions have averaged 31.7 points over their three-game surge, but are just 37-38-2 all-time on Thanksgiving despite their run of four straight wins.

L.A. Chargers (-2, 47.5) at Dallas

It’s incredible that just two weeks ago, the Cowboys (5-5, 5-5) opened their November slate with an impressive victory over Kansas City where they imposed their will and the offensive line looked like it had last season, dominating impressively. No one would’ve believed you if you told them you had arrived from the future to declare that the Chargers would be favored in Arlington on Thanksgiving.

Standout left tackle Tyron Smith then aggravated a back injury, hasn’t played since that win and has watch as Dallas has been outscored 64-14 by Atlanta and Philadelphia. His brothers on the offensive line have been manhandled and Dak Prescott has been harassed without him in the mix. Over the past two weeks, Prescott hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass and has been sacked 12 times. The absence has been so glaring that even RB Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension has taken a back seat since his presence wouldn’t have mattered much given the offensive line’s ineptitude.

News that Smith will attempt to play on Thursday was therefore met with great relief given that defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa await to feast on any uncertainty along the Dallas’ offensive front. Coming off terrorizing a bad Buffalo o-line and forcing five interceptions from rookie QB Nathan Peterman before creating even more mayhem against Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers were licking their chops and may still be the driving force in this middle game of a Thanksgiving tripleheader.

Despite being under .500 at the 10-game mark, Los Angeles (4-6, 5-4-1) harbors playoff aspirations. Only one game behind the Bills for the No. 6 spot in the AFC, the Chargers are actually a hot streak away from contending for the AFC West crown. A 54-24 win over the Bills opened up a world of possibilities, doubling as the new franchise record for a single-game scoring output and providing hope that a team which has dropped four games by three or fewer points has finally made a breakthrough.

L.A. still has a game at Kansas City to play, but following this one, will host Washington, Cleveland and Oakland in addition to visiting the N.Y. Jets. The rest of the games on the schedule are all winnable if Philip Rivers stays healthy, so you can count on an exciting one since both teams are invested in winning to keep their realistic playoff hopes alive.

The sight of an unhappy Jerry Jones had become a popular internet meme on Thanksgiving for a few years there since the Cowboys had lost three of four prior to last season’s thrilling 31-26 win that was put away by Elliott’s second touchdown run. It was the 10th of 11 consecutive wins Dallas secured last season, but the team had lost its previous two games on turkey day by a 66-24 margin.

Besides Smith and Elliott, the Cowboys have missed the services of standout middle linebacker Sean Lee, who has already been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Key LB Anthony Hitchens is also questionable for the Cowboys, as is guard La’el Collins. DE DeMarcus Lawrence will play through a shoulder issue. Kicker Dan Bailey is also attempting to return from a groin injury, but has been replaced effectively by Mike Nugent, who would once again fill in if Bailey can’t go.

The Chargers list tackles Joe Barksdale and Russell Okung as questionable but expect both to play. The same goes for DTs Corey Liuget and Brandon Mebane. L.A. is playing its first Thanksgiving game since the 1960s, before the merger. The Cowboys are 30-18-1.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (-7, 44.5)

Schedule makers meant well when they cooked up the idea of this game being a worthwhile nightcap to the Thanksgiving feast. Unfortunately, similar to what transpired back in 2012 when the butt fumble upstaged a 49-19 Patriots’ rout of the Jets, we have ourselves a laughable matchup.

Washington (4-6, 4-6) hosts New York (2-8, 4-6) in a game between teams realistically eliminated from the NFC’s playoff picture. The Giants come off a 12-9 overtime upset of the Chiefs on Sunday, taking advantage of windy conditions and a rough outing from Alex Smith to pull out an upset that paid as much as +400.

The Redskins were headed to a remarkable upset win over the Saints in New Orleans before an improbable comeback landed the game in overtime. It was a devastating setback for Washington, which led 31-16 with 4:16 remaining but couldn’t stop Drew Brees or rookie Alvin Kamara down the stretch, then couldn’t get anything going offensively in OT.

Making matters worse, Washington lost its most valuable offensive weapon, RB Chris Thompson, to a fractured fibula. He ranked third in the NFL as a receiving threat out of the backfield. QB Kirk Cousins took a few big hits but is expected to be out leading an offense that has lost WR Terrell Pryor, tight end Jordan Reed and multiple offensive linemen. Rookie Samaje Perine will start at running back, Byron Marshall will try and fill Thompson’s shoes and there’s a possibility Pro-Bowl tackle Trent Williams will be among those who can’t participate.

The Giants won’t sympathize, but can, having lost the likes of Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and multiple offensive linemen themselves. Second-year WR Sterling Shepard came off an injury and had five receptions for 70 yards to provide some hope, but he missed last week’s games due to migraine and may not play here either. Head coach Ben McAdoo is a lame duck, so it remains to be seen whether the Giants will come out to play for him on a holiday. It’s likely for that reason that Washington is such a resounding favorite since they’re in the same boat health-wise.

The teams will play the final week of the regular season in what will almost certainly be a meaningless game. This one will draw more eyeballs due to people digesting their turkey dinners and attempting to close out parlays. Unlike the other two games that will be played in domed stadiums, weather will be a factor in Landover. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s, but the wind gusts expected should have a minimal impact
 

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CFB Trends:

OLE MISS (5 - 6) at MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 3) - 11/23/2017, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MISSISSIPPI @ MISSISSIPPI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Mississippi's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
 

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Ole Miss at Miss State

The Egg Bowl will be playing on Thanksgiving night for the first time since 2013 as the nation’s 10th longest uninterrupted rivalry will open the final weekend of the SEC regular season. The stakes are lower than a few seasons ago but this year’s game will carry great importance to the players and coaches.

Here is a look at Thursday Night Football as Mississippi and Mississippi State face off.

Matchup: Mississippi Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Venue: At Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 23, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Mississippi State -16, Over/Under 62½
Last Meeting: 2016, Mississippi State (+10) 55, at Mississippi 20

After a post-game brawl in 1926 Ole Miss and Mississippi A&M (now Mississippi State) created a Golden Egg trophy for the victor although the rivalry game wasn’t referred to colloquially as the ‘Egg Bowl’ until 1979. While both programs have had some ups and downs the 2014 meeting was one of the high points of the rivalry with two highly ranked teams with #19 Ole Miss upsetting then #4 Mississippi State 31-17. This year’s game doesn’t carry the same weight but the intensity on the field will remain strong and there are plenty of storylines on the sidelines as well.

Last February Ole Miss announced a self-imposed one-year postseason ban due to allegations of violations. As more details emerged, head coach Huge Freeze resigned in July, leaving after five years with a 39-25 record though hitting a low point with a 5-7 record last season. Matt Luke has been on the staff since 2012 and was named the interim head coach for this season though he is not expected to be a serious candidate moving forward. The Rebels are a bit handcuffed in the upcoming hiring season as the NCAA hasn’t made a final ruling on the case and there could be further sanctions against the school.

Mississippi State was expected to sit at the bottom of the SEC West this season but Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs at 4-3 in league play and 8-3 overall, certainly looking like the 4th or 5th team in the SEC pecking order in the bowl season as an attractive bowl bid should be coming to the program. Despite being on the hot seat himself only a few years ago Mullen has emerged as hot property after sustained success in Starkville, now 69-45 in nine seasons with his quarterback development reputation highly regarded. That has meant his name has been thrown around as a possible candidate for several of the high profile vacancies around the country with his decision capable of having a domino impact at several programs.

The three losses for Mississippi State this season have come against the three SEC teams still in the running for a SEC championship and a College Football Playoff spot, falling early in the season in lopsided results at Georgia and at Auburn. Mississippi State rallied to win the next four games and two weeks ago gave #1 Alabama a great test with a 31-24 loss in Starkville, a game the Bulldogs led into the 4th quarter and lost in the final minute. That has been the only home loss for Mississippi State this season with a notable 37-7 home win over LSU in September on the resume.

Nick Fitzgerald is 11th in the SEC in quarterback rating but that doesn’t do justice to the season he has had. While not a prolific passer he has thrown for 15 touchdowns and should eclipse 2,000 passing yards by season’s end and his completion rate has gone up slightly compared with last season. Fitzgerald’s main value is his size and mobility at 6’5” and rushing for 968 net yards at this point in the season on 6.1 yards per carry. He has accounted for 29 touchdowns this season and can carry his team at times with junior running back Aeris Williams also likely to top 1,000 yards rushing this season as the other major piece of the offense.

On defense junior Montez Sweat has nine sacks to match the lead in the SEC and Mississippi State is ninth nationally in total defense surrendering only 297 yards per game. The Bulldogs are 20th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 19.5 points per game and five times this season the Bulldogs have allowed 14 or fewer points.

The opportunity for Mississippi State in this matchup should come on the ground as Ole Miss rates 118th nationally allowing 5.4 yards per rush. The Rebels have allowed 35.2 points per game on the season but the offense has been able to win several higher scoring shootouts.

The season started poorly for Ole Miss with losses in the first three major conference tests of the season including falling 66-3 at Alabama and 44-23 at Auburn. Sophomore quarterback Shea Patterson was on pace to be one of the most productive passing quarterbacks in the nation but he was injured in the October loss to LSU. While a lighter stretch of the schedule has played a role, junior Jordan Ta’amu has taken over the position with even stronger numbers, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes on 9.5 yards per attempt and he delivered a signature performance in the narrow win at Kentucky in early November.

Senior Jordan Wilkins has gained 6.1 yards per carry out of the backfield and the Rebels have leaned on him more in recent weeks with 271 yards the past two games as he could have a shot to eclipse 1,000 yards on the season this week going against a fairly stingy MSU run defense. Sophomore A.J. Brown has been the top receiver with 1,085 yards on 69 catches including 10 touchdowns despite missing a game early in the season.

While the Rebels won’t make a bowl game they can reach 6-6 with a win in the finale for a season of improvement after going 5-7 last season after losing in the Egg Bowl last season in what was a bowl elimination game. The Rebels have only played one road game since the first weekend in October but they did win that game at Kentucky for the only road win of the season and the Rebels only had one road win last year.

For Mississippi State this is a chance to win consecutive Egg Bowls for the first time since 2011 and a chance to bolster its postseason position. Most projections call for the Bulldogs to face a prominent Big Ten team like Penn State or Michigan in either the Outback Bowl or Citrus Bowl for an attractive high profile New Year’s Day draw for the program. A loss could mean sliding to potentially the December 30 Liberty Bowl vs. a Big XII team.

Last season: This was a bowl elimination game between 5-6 teams last season in Oxford. It was a back-and-forth first half with a 27-20 lead for Mississippi State. That score held until just over five minutes to go in the third quarter before the Bulldogs went on a 28-0 run the close the game for a somewhat misleading 55-20 final result. Mississippi State had just a 566-528 yardage edge and benefitted from a 2-1 turnover edge including a 4th quarter pick-six. Fitzgerald rushed for 258 yards and accounted for five touchdowns while Patterson threw for 320 yards but had two interceptions to match his two touchdowns.

Historical Trends:

Mississippi State has won and covered in five of eight meetings since 2009.

Mississippi State hasn’t been a double-digit favorite in this series since 2011 and before that not since 1981.

The Bulldogs are 7-2 S/U in Starkville in this series since 1999 though just 5-4 ATS and they lost the last home meeting in 2015.

Under Mullen the Bulldogs are 39-1 S/U as a double-digit favorite but just 20-20 ATS.

In that span Mississippi State is 40-20 S/U at home with a 33-25-1 ATS record at Davis Wade, going 5-1 ATS at home this season.

Ole Miss is 15-27 S/U and 18-23-1 ATS on the road since 2009. Going back to 1997 the Rebels are 29-18-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog
 

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-14.5, 65)

Although Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald had already emerged as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country well prior to last season's Egg Bowl, his record-breaking rushing performance in that contest pretty much cemented that label. The dangerous junior signal-caller looks to maintain the 17th-ranked Bulldogs' recent dominance in their Thanksgiving Day rivalry game with Ole Miss when they host the Rebels.

Fitzgerald accounted for 367 total yards - including a school-record 258 yards on the ground - and five total touchdowns (two rushing) in last year's 55-20 thrashing of Ole Miss, allowing Mississippi State to avenge a defeat in 2015 and take home the Golden Egg Trophy for the fifth time in eight tries under coach Dan Mullen. The Bulldogs reached the eight-win mark for the fifth time under Mullen following last weekend's 28-21 thrilling victory at Arkansas, getting two touchdown passes from Fitzgerald over the final 3:57 to pull it out. Win or lose, the Rebels will be playing their final game of the season as a result of a self-imposed postseason ban, which came in February after the NCAA found the program committed multiple violations under former coach Hugh Freeze. Ole Miss guaranteed itself its second straight non-winning season after losing at home to Texas A&M 31-24 over the weekend.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Bulldogs as 16-point home favorites for this rivalry matchup and were bet down to -14.5. They are currently 15-point chalk. The total menawhile, hit the board at 62.5 and bettors like the Over, moving the number to 65, where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Ole Miss -
WR M. Pack (Probable Thursday, concussion), QB J. Ta'amu (Probable Thursday, throat), DB J. Julius (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR V. Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, elbow), OL A. Givens (Out Thursday, concussion), RB D. Pennamon (Out for season, knee).

Mississippi State - WR K. Mixon (Probable Thursday, knee), WR G. Myles (Questionable Thursday, foot), DB D. Bryant (Questionable Thursday, upper body), LB D. Harris (Out Thursday, thigh), WR D. Gray (Out for season, hernia).

ABOUT OLE MISS (5-6, 3-7-1 ATS, 9-2 O/U): A.J. Brown finished with seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against the Aggies; the 6-2, 225-pound sophomore wideout leads the conference in receptions (69), receiving yards (1,085) and receiving TDs (10). Senior running back Jordan Wilkins, who rushed for a season-high 147 yards on a career-high 19 carries last weekend and is averaging 108.2 yards on the ground over his last four outings, is 99 yards shy of becoming the Rebels' first 1,000-yard rusher since Dexter McCluster in 2009. Gary Wunderlich is on the verge of breaking multiple school records, needing one more field goal, two more points and one more successful point-after try to break Jonathan Nichols' career marks in each category.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-3, 7-4 ATS, 4-7 O/U):Fitzgerald extended his own SEC record for 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback to 14 after rushing for 101 against the Razorbacks and needs only 52 more yards to move past ex-Bulldog Dak Prescott (2,521) and into third place on the conference's all-time rushing list from a quarterback. Since totaling 73 yards on the ground in back-to-back losses to Georgia and Auburn at the end of September, Aeris Williams is averaging 89.2 yards rushing over his last six outings and needs 56 more to reach 1,000 for the season. Despite giving up two sacks versus Arkansas, the Bulldogs have allowed a league-low eight - tied for the fourth-best mark in the country.

TRENDS:

* Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
* Over is 8-1 in Ole Miss' last nine conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Mississippi State.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are throwing records out the window in this rivalry matchup, with 60 percent of wagers on the underdog Rebels to cover the spread. When it comes to the total, bettors are siding with the Over, with 57 percent of wagers to surpass the number
 

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NCAAB Knowledge

Disney/Orlando Tournament


First road trip for Oregon State is a long one; Beavers are 2-1, losing by 9 to Wyoming, beating Long Beach/Southern Utah. Cowboys are shooting only 23.7% on arc- they’re #317 experience team, starting two frosh, two juniors. St John’s beat Nebraska by 23 and three other stiffs; this is their first road trip, too. Red Storm start three sophs- they’re #244 experience team that is playing pace #39, pretty fast. Big East favorites are 10-7 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 4-3. Last 2+ years, Big East favorites are 6-7 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 team.

Central Florida is very close to home, will have crowd edge; Knights are 3-0, beating Mercer by 9 for their best win- they lost their best player Taylor for few weeks with an injury. UCF is shooting only 24.5% on arc, hasn’t forced many turnovers. Nebraska beat three stiffs and lost by 23 at St John’s; they start three juniors and a senior. Cornhuskers are shooting only 30.4% on arc. AAC favorites are 9-11 vs spread; Big 14 underdogs are 1-5. Last 2+ years, AAC teams are 9-7 vs spread when playing a Big 14 team.

Battle for Atlantis

Villanova is 4-0 but hasn’t played anyone in top 190 yet; Wildcats start a freshman, four juniors- they sleepwalked past WKU yesterday 66-58, making 7-22 on arc. Villanova played two kids 33-35:00. Tennessee had great win over Purdue; they played four guys 29:00+ in the OT game. Vols start three sophs, two juniors, have only one senior on their team- they’re forcing turnovers 24.5% of time. Big East favorites are 10-7 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 3-3. Last 2+ years, Big East teams are 7-4 vs spread when facing an SEC squad.

Arizona got upset by NC State last night, shooting 2-17 on arc in foulest where both teams took 35 FT’s. Wildcats beat three stiffs before this trip; they’re young, starting two freshmen- they played three guys 34:00+ last nite. SMU lost its first game after a 4-1 start; they used four kids 37:00+, basically played only six guys, one senior. Mustangs have made 39.7% of their 3’s- they’re #291 experience team, Pac-12 favorites are 13-15 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 4-2. Last 2+ years, AAC teams are 8-6 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 opponent.

NC State is 5-0 against the #342 schedule in country up to this point; Wolfpack have forced turnovers 27.2% of time (#6 in country) but how do they react after a stellar upset yesterday? State starts three seniors but their PG is a sophomore. Northern Iowa lost by 17 at North Carolina, won four in row since; Panthers play #335 pace in country, have made 42.3% of their 3’s so far this month. UNI starts a freshman, two sophs. ACC favorites are 22-11 vs spread; MVC underdogs are 8-4. Last 2+ years, ACC teams are 9-4 vs spread when playing an MVC opponent.

PK80, Portland

Arkansas scored 93 ppg in winning its first three games, beating Bucknell/Fresno St, both top 100 teams. Razorbacks are forcing turnovers 23.3% of time, while making 37.3% on arc- they’re #116 experience team in country. Oklahoma hasn’t played in eight days- they scored 108 points in each of first two games, beating stiffs by 19-39 points. Sooners are #302 experience team that made 42.6% of its 3’s so far. Big X favorites are 15-9 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 3-3. Last 2+ years, SEC teams are 24-15-1 vs spread when playing a Big X team.

Oregon jumped out to 30-9 lead, beat UConn 79-69 in 5th-place game in Maui Classic LY. Oregon will be the “home team” here, for sure; Ducks are 4-0 with only one win vs team that is ranked above #297. Oregon is #316 experience team in country, after losing four starters from LY’s Final Four team- they start a freshman, two sophs. UConn is 3-0 vs schedule #290 schedule; Huskies start two freshmen, two juniors. Pac-12 favorites are 13-15 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 4-2. Last 2+ years, AAC teams are 8-6 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 opponent.

Texas killed first three teams they’ve played (schedule #312); Longhorns are #10 in blocked shots %age, thanks to frosh big man Jones. Texas is shooting 60.4% on foul line, 27.4% on arc, a potential red flag. Butler has a new coach; they lost by 14 at Maryland, beat Princeton/Furman at home- their first four opponents shot 46.4% on arc against them. Bulldogs are starting two sophs and a freshman. Big East favorites are 10-7 vs spread; Big X underdogs are 0-2. Last 2+ years, Big East teams are 4-4 against the spread when playing Big X teams.

Florida hasn’t played anyone in top 200 yet; they’re 3-0, with lame 70-63 win over UNH in their last game, when they outscored Wildcats 31-9 on foul line. Gators start two juniors, two seniors, are expected to compete for SEC title. Stanford lost at home to Eastern Washington/UNC; Cardinal’s three wins are over teams ranked #163-233-239. Stanford starts three freshmen; will this stage be too big for them? SEC favorites are 7-3 vs spread away from home; Pac-12 underdogs are 4-3. Last 2+ years, Pac-12 teams are 14-3 vs spread when playing SEC squads.

Barclays Center, Brooklyn

Virginia is 4-0 with a quality 76-67 win at VCU; Cavaliers are playing slowest tempo in country, forcing turnovers 25.1% of time, while holding teams to 26% on arc. Vanderbilt lost 93-89 in OT at home to USC Sunday, after leading by 14 in first half; Vandy is 2-2, also losing at Belmont. Virginia starts two sophs, two seniors; Vandy starts two frosh, three seniors. ACC favorites are 22-11 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 3-3. Last 2+ years, SEC teams are 24-19 vs spread when playing an ACC team. ACC tourney is in this building in March, which is why Virginia is here.

Rhode Island is 2-1, with 88-81 loss at Nevada; Rams basically play six guys, starting four seniors- they lost star Matthews (wrist) for a while. Seton Hall is 4-0 with an 84-68 win against Indiana; Pirates they’ve forced turnovers 26.3% of time this season (#11 in country).- they start three seniors who’ve won 50 games the last 2+ seasons. Big East favorites are 10-7 vs spread; A-14 underdogs are 8-12. Last 2+ years, Big East teams are 13-5 vs spread when playing an A-14 opponent. Should be lot of fans for both sides in Brooklyn for this game.

Wooden Classic, Fullerton, CA

Washington State scored 81.3 ppg in winning its first three games, all against stiffs (schedule #339); Coogs start two sophs, two juniors- 6-7 junior Franks is shooting 61% behind arc so far. Long trip for St Joe’s team whose #2 scorer Kimble is out for year; Hawks are 2-1 against a decent schedule- they lost by 11 at Toledo, but beat UIC, Princeton. St Joe’s played seven guys last game, all for 23:00+. A-14 favorites are 7-13 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 4-3. Last 2+ years, A-14 teams are 6-1 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 squad.

Orleans Arena, Las Vegas

Arizona State is off to a 4-0 start, with wins over San Diego State/Cal-Irvine; Sun Devils are making 40.4% of their 3’s, have #6 eFG% in country. ASU starts two seniors- they used four starters 34:00+ in last game. Kansas State is also 4-0, with Cal-Irvine its only victim ranked above #273 (schedule #338); Wildcats are forcing turnovers 29.7% of time, #1 in country. Big X favorites are 15-9 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 4-3. Last 2+ years, Big X favorites are 7-6 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 team. K-State starts two sophs, three juniors.
 

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CBB Trend Sheet:

MISSOURI @ LONG BEACH STATE
Missouri is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Missouri is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
No trends to report

CHICAGO STATE @ UMBC
Chicago State is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games
Chicago State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

HAMPTON @ NORTHERN ARIZONA
Northern Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

ST. JOHN'S @ OREGON STATE
St. John's is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games
Oregon State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

PORTLAND @ NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
NORTH CAROLINA STATE @ NORTHERN IOWA

VIRGINIA @ VANDERBILT
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Vanderbilt is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

SAINT MARY'S-CALIFORNIA @ HARVARD
Saint Mary's-California is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
Harvard is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Harvard is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

PORTLAND STATE @ DUKE
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

GEORGE WASHINGTON @ XAVIER
George Washington is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
George Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Xavier
Xavier is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing George Washington
Xavier is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games

ARKANSAS @ OKLAHOMA
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Arkansas
Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

CENTRAL FLORIDA @ NEBRASKA
Central Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nebraska's last 7 games
Nebraska is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games

RHODE ISLAND @ SETON HALL
Rhode Island is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Rhode Island is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seton Hall
Seton Hall is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Seton Hall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rhode Island

SAINT JOSEPH'S @ WASHINGTON STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Joseph's's last 7 games
Saint Joseph's is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

BUTLER @ TEXAS
Butler is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games

ARIZONA STATE @ KANSAS STATE
Arizona State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

WEST VIRGINIA @ MARIST
West Virginia is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Marist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

CONNECTICUT @ OREGON
Connecticut is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oregon is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

RIDER @ UC IRVINE
Rider is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
UC Irvine is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

FLORIDA @ STANFORD
Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Stanford's last 15 games
Stanford is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

GEORGIA @ CAL STATE-FULLERTON
Georgia is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Georgia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Cal State-Fullerton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Cal State-Fullerton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

MICHIGAN STATE @ DEPAUL
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of DePaul's last 5 games
DePaul is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

OHIO STATE @ GONZAGA
Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Gonzaga is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games

SAN DIEGO STATE @ SACRAMENTO STATE
San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Sacramento State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
 

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