Alright off to a 2-2 start this week. Ole Miss won the Egg Bowl after Fitzgerald went down early, there was no recovering from that and it was apparent almost right away.
Down a bit for the week, here are today's selections:
Saturday, November 25
Tulane Green Wave +7.5 (10 Units)
Staying away from some of the bigger tilts in the early games and going with the Green Wave as an early big pick. SMU went to Tulane last year and crushed them 35-21 as a -1.5 favorite but things are a bit different this year. Tulane needs 1 more win to make it to a Bowl Game so they have a won on the line in this game. Do not forget Tulane is coming off a HOME WIN over Houston last week that kept their Bowl dreams alive. SMU is on a three game losing streak right now having gone down to Memphis, Navy and Central Florida in their last three games. They will want to get back on track obviously but that's hard to do when your defense is allowing an insane 8.2 yards play in their last three games. Also very difficult when your QB is completing something like 49.6% of his passes in those games.
Taking Tulane on the road makes me a little uneasy because of how bad they have been but again there is so much on the line here and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up win. SMU comes into this game on a 1-5 ATS losing run and dating back a few years they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 13 games played in November. The Road Team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams and Tulane is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Gerald Ford Stadium.
Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.
Tulane 31, Southern Methodist 30
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10.5 (25 Units)
This is a great rivalry game and what I am willing to bet is that almost nobody really knows how good Georgia Tech have been on the spread over the last few years. No joke. They don't make much noise in terms of winning conference championships but this is a team that is ALWAYS going to compete under Paul Johnson. What people also don't know is that the Jackets can match Georgia on offense and they can also match them on offense. In their last three games here are the numbers for both teams. OFFENSE: Georgia 390.7 on 6.0 yards per play and Georgia Tech 386.3 total yards of offense on 5.8 yards per play. DEFENSE: Georgia has allowed 340.0 total yards per game on 5.5 yards per play, Georgia Tech has allowed 371.7 total yards on 5.3 yards per play. This is going to be a heavyweight fight with both teams taking big shots.
So back to my ATS angle on this one. Georgia Tech is 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. This team does not back down, they rarely takes games off and they come ready to play. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus SEC Conference opponents, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games and even more importantly they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games with a 7-1-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Georgia is a good road team and the Bulldogs are on an 8-0 ATS run in this series (wow!) but this is the day Georgia Tech puts an end to that!
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
Georgia Tech 41, Georgia 36
Oklahoma State Cowboys -41 (25 Units)
So I see early that the public backing Kansas to cover this spread. Well let's start off with their captains all being stripped of captaincy because of the Baker Mayfield incident and then we'll continue with the fact that Oklahoma State is probably going to pitch a shutout in this one or very close to it and then drop 60 of their own. If you don't see the Cowboys hitting 60 in this one then take the underdog but I see them hitting 60 against a Kansas defense that has allowed 6.3 yards per play on the season. Not that Oklahoma State has been any better defensively this season because they haven't been at times but they held Baylor to 16 here back in October and I compare this game to that one quite a bit. The Cowboys won 59-16 (by 43) and I see some similar results. Baylor's offense is actually pretty decent too. Kansas cannot run the ball on the road and Okie State will feed off of that.
Kansas lost 41-3 last week at home, against Baker Mayfield and his taunting. So now they go on the road against a pissed Oklahoma State team and things could get ugly early. Kansas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games when coming off a double digit home loss and they have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 26 road games versus a team with a winning record at home. The Home Team in this series is 5-1 ATS the last six seasons and Kansas has covered the spread only 1 time the last 12 years in Stillwater. This will be a WOW game for Oklahoma State who will run all over the Jayhawks and send them well into college basketball season.
Trend of the Game: Kansas is 1-6 ATS in their last six trips to Stillwater.
Oklahoma State 65, Kansas 0
Connecticut Huskies +5.5 (25 Units)
No way should Cincinnati ever be favored by this much let alone in a game where things are probably going to be...BORING. I was so tempted to go with the UNDER here but when I saw the amount of people backing the Bearcats I just had to get my hand in the pot. These are two terrible teams in 2017 and neither one of them is going to a Bowl Game so this game means absolutely nothing to either side unless you are a Senior and you feel like entertaining the few thousand that are going to be in attendance. Connecticut has not won a game since October 21 while Cincinnati have only one win in their last seven games coming into this game. So what gives? Well for starters I will continue to point out the penalties that Cincinnati has taken this year. They have 33 penalties (accepted) against them in their last three games which has cost them over 300+ yards. Randy Edsall knows a thing or two about this rivalry and I'll be on his side for this one.
Believe it or not the Huskies are on a 4-0 ATS run in Conference play right now and this team is starting to play better. Cincinnati on the other hand cannot stay out of their own way and they are 2-12 IN THEIR LAST 14 HOME GAMES. That's just awful. Again I am somewhat shocked that so many people are backing them knowing that they cannot win or cover spreads at home and have not done so for a few years now. Looking back at the last few years of this rivalry, Cincinnati has won and dominated most of the games so the trends don't sit with UCONN but with coach Edsall back in the saddle there is only one way to go for me.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Connecticut 24, Cincinnati 16
Georgia State Panthers +7 (10 Units)
Not a big play for me but I can't resist the Bowl-bound home team here. The Panthers are 0-3 SU lifetime against Appalachian State but their performance last year was an indication to me that they are finally where they need to be to compete in this matchup. The Panthers won three straight to grab their spot in a Bowl Game (huge accomplishment) and now they are playing with HOUSE MONEY on Senior's Day which is usually a big deal. Appalachian State is not playing well defensively right now allowing 5.9 yards per play in their last three games so with two offenses who can put points and big yards on the board I think the Panthers have the advantage having allowed 4.6 yards per play in their last three games. These two programs are virtually unknown to most and I think the books just don't respect Georgia State yet despite the fact that they are in a Bowl Game a year ahead of anyone seeing them there.
Appalachian State is a good fade away from home. They are on an 0-5 ATS road game burn run right now and they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. This is a problem. Georgia State has been off since November 11 so they have had a ton of time to enjoy their Bowl eligibility and a ton of time to prepare for this game. Like I mentioned before the Panthers had a good run in this game last year, they covered the spread for the first time ever against Appalachian State and now we see what they can do in a home game while playing on house money. Home Team wins this one.
Trend of the Game: Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
Georgia State 24, Appalachian State 21
UL Monroe Warhawks +8 (10 Units)
Despite the losing season and missing out on a Bowl Game yet again, UL Monroe have actually been a decent spread team and are 6-4 ATS on the season so far. The last time they were at home they beat Appalachian State 52-45 as an 8 point underdog in a crazy shootout so obviously they are going to have some kind of motivation knowing they can go toe to toe with high scoring opponents at home and win. Arkansas State recently lost on the road as a -12.5 favorite at South Alabama so I really don't see how anyone can back them in this game. They are already on their way to a Bowl Game and their offense has struggled in the last three games averaging only 4.9 yards per play in those games on 414.7 total yards of offense. UL Monroe is a big play team and is averaging 6.6 yards per play in their last three games. Classic game of good defense (Arkansas State) versus a hot offense (UL Monroe) and on the flip side UL Monroe has trouble stopping anyone while Arkansas State have struggled somewhat to put big plays on the board. Should be a close one.
UL Monroe is on some kind of streak dating back to last season as they have now covered the spread in 6 straight games played in November. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Arkansas State is on a 7-0 ATS run in this series and they have dominated the last seven meetings but I think UL Monroe is playing well enough right now that they can buck that trend in a game that means virtually nothing to either side. I am going with the home underdog in a lower scoring game than most would believe here.
Trend of the Game: UL Monroe is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played in November.
UL Monroe 31, Arkansas State 21
more to come...
