Best bets on Week 12 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's Week 12 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Thursday, November 23
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Detroit Lions
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Detroit has been great on Thanksgiving, winning the last four straight up and against the spread. They are used to playing on the holiday and catch their opponent traveling on a short rest. Detroit already won at Minnesota this year 14-7 and beat the Vikings twice last year. The Vikings are clearly one of the top teams in the NFL and they have outgained their opponents in nine of their 10 games (plus-82 yards per game). Detroit, meanwhile, has been doing it with smoke and mirrors as they have been outgained in seven games (minus-16 yards per game) despite being 6-4. The Vikings are the stronger team, but the situation favors Detroit. With the line move Minnesota has to win by more than a field goal, so I'm passing on the side.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: Interesting dynamics for both teams as they enter with a combined nine-game win streak. The Vikings sit two games ahead of the Lions in the race for the NFC North, and they are the superior team. Minnesota's defensive talent was clearly on display again last week in holding the upstart Los Angeles Rams to just seven points. With the Lions' lack of run game the Vikings should be able to hold in check the one-dimensional Lions. The Vikings offense won't be compared to a few of the juggernaut units around the NFL, but the Lions have allowed 21.7 PPGover their last three to the Bears, Packers and Browns.
ATS pick: Lean Vikings -3
Warren Sharp's take: Detroit's metrics aren't what you would think they are, for a 6-4 team. They have played a very difficult schedule of run defenses, but they absolutely can't run effectively, ranking third worst in efficiency. In their Week 4 meeting, the Lions managed just a 35 percent success rate and 3.1 yards per carry. In that game, the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook after he ran the ball for a 69 percent success rate and 5.1 yards per carry, and they had to replace him with Latavius Murray for the majority of the second half, who couldn't get the job done. The entire game fell on the shoulders of Case Keenum at that point, and Keenum recorded a 66 passer rating in the second half, averaging just 5.9 yards per pass. Matthew Stafford has a history of not playing well against Mike Zimmer's defense, but without yet knowing the status of Vikings safeties Andrew Sendejo, Anthony Harris and CB Xavier Rhodes (as well as DE Ezekiel Ansah for the Lions), it's difficult to forecast this one.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Detroit 22
The pick: Detroit and the over --- DET +3, 44.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 50 percent each
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers opened the year 0-4, but that included three defeats by three or less including a couple with a missed field goal at the end. They are 4-2 since then including another 3-point loss to Jacksonville, a game they had the ball and the lead twice in the final minutes. Joey Bosa leads a defense that has recorded 30 sacks and Philip Rivers, who opened the year with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio, has a 13-3 ratio over the last seven games. They play in the AFC where a .500 record could be good enough for the playoffs. Dallas has been without running back Ezekiel Elliott, left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. They may get Smith back here, which would be crucial in pass protection after they allowed 12 sacks over the previous two weeks without his services. The Chargers' arrow is pointing up and the Cowboys just suffered their worst home defeat since 2004. My initial lean was to take the 'dog, but with the Chargers now favored I will give a slight lean to the home team as they rise up and win a close one.
Pick: Lean on Dallas +1
Erin Rynning's take: Perhaps the sky is falling on the Cowboys, but the Chargers possess much less bite than the Falcons and Eagles. The key for the Cowboys is to rev the running game back in gear in this matchup. The Chargers are an allowing 139 rush yards per game (NFL worst) and 4.9 yards per carry (31st). The Cowboys hope to be much healthier on the offensive line in this tilt to help control the line of scrimmage. With the Cowboys once again controlling the clock look for Philip Rivers impatient style lead to mistakes to once again cost the Chargers another close game.
Pick: Dallas +1 and lean under 48
Warren Sharp's take: As discussed last week, the most vital single piece missing for the Cowboys is Sean Lee. In the three full games he's missed, the Cowboys defense is allowing 6.3 yards per carry, as opposed to 3.8 in games he finishes. Dallas may get the services of Tyron Smith back, but I shudder to think what would happen if they did not, as their last two opponents when missing Smith ranked 14th and 18th in pass protection efficiency, whereas the Chargers' defense ranks third best. The weakness of the Chargers defense has been against the run, but that has improved tremendously the last two weeks with the return of LB Denzel Perryman.
The Chargers run offense, particularly with Melvin Gordon, isn't great but they've been incorporating RB Austin Ekeler much more over the past few weeks, and are going against the Lee-less Cowboys. Dallas won't be able to run as efficiently and Dak Prescott will have to drop back to pass often against this strong pass rush defense of the Chargers.
Pick: Lean Los Angeles -1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Dallas 22
The pick: Under 48
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Washington
Phil Steele's take: Last week's results give us some line value this week as the Redskins were favored by 8.5 prior to last week and the line has dropped to 7. The Giants were thought to be a playoff team at the start of the year, but are just 2-8. They have two big wins versus Denver and Kansas City in the two games they were listed as a double digit 'dog. Their eight losses have been by 12.5 points per game and they are dead last in the NFL being outgained by 88 yards per game with a banged-up team. Washington had both Kansas City and New Orleans (led 31-16) beat, but lost both games late. They have taken on the NFL's toughest schedule facing the Eagles twice, Oakland with Derek Carr healthy, the Rams, the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott, the Seahawks, the Vikings and the previously mentioned teams they blew late leads against. Despite this gauntlet they are only minus-4 yards per game. Last year the Redskins were upset by the Giants which knocked them out of playoff contention. Washington gets its revenge here and starts a late-season surge with a softer schedule.
ATS pick: Washington -7.5
Erin Rynning's take: Hats off to the Giants and Ben McAdoo for rallying last week to beat the Chiefs. However, trusting this 2-8 squad to show up two weeks in a row and on a short week seems unlikely. Off their Sunday night win against the Broncos earlier in the campaign the Giants were outgained by almost 250 yards the following week in losing to Seattle. The Redskins have dropped four of their last five, however they've shown continued moxie throughout the season. The key portion of their offensive line has regained health as their offense is clicking. Meanwhile, slowing and shutting down the feeble Giants offense is rather easily done.
ATS pick: Lean Redskins at -7 or less
Warren Sharp's take: Last week against a decent rushing offense, but one that has completely lost its way in recent weeks, the Giants run defense rose up and forced Kansas City to pass the ball. Even in the windy conditions, the Chiefs passed the ball 59 percent of offensive plays, with only 43 percent being successful, and they threw three interceptions. The Redskins could be in a similar situation, with yet another injury to a starting RB, Washington must rely on rookie RB Samaje Perine. Both offenses are operating with men down. The Redskins WR corps is getting depleted, with Terrelle Pryor being placed on the IR on Monday. Many receivers are questionable as of Tuesday morning, including Redskins' Jordan Reed and Giants' Sterling Shepard. The Giants are expected to be without RT D.J. Fluker, which comes after losing RT Justin Pugh before last week's game.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 27, New York Giants 19
The pick: Washington and the over --- WAS -7.5, 45
Sunday, November 26
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Cincinnati
Phil Steele's take: Cleveland has been very competitive this year, as despite having the worst record in the NFL at 0-10, they are only being outgained by 13 yards per game (No. 18 in the NFL). The Bengals meanwhile are being outgained by 57 yards per game. Cincinnati got a 14-point swing last week in Denver by returning an attempted goal line pass 99 yards to set up the eventual touchdown. They won at Denver despite being outgained 341-190 (20-12 first down deficit). That was a third straight road game for them and while they did not deserve to win, their 4-6 record makes them a surprising playoff contender in the lackluster AFC. The Bengals have won six in a row versus the Browns both straight up and ATS by an average of 23 points per game (won in Cleveland for me as an ATS pick earlier this year 31-7). Cleveland has lost all but one of its road games by 14 or more with the exception being a 3-point loss at Indianapolis, a game in which they trailed 28-7.
Pick: Lean on Cincinnati -8.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Bengals defense is an enigma. Despite ranking middle of the pack in most all defensive categories against a much easier than average schedule, the Bengals rank as one of the worst defenses on third down. They should get a reprieve in that area, as they face the NFL's worst third down offense on Sunday. The Bengals have the fifth-worst pass protecting line. While they did pull out the win in Denver, the Bengals have struggled against strong pass rushes, going 1-4 against teams ranking in the top 15 (lone win was last week in Denver), but the Bengals are 3-2 against teams in the bottom half of pass pressure, and the two losses were both narrow losses on the road, in Green Bay (with Rodgers) and in Tennessee. The last two weeks, the Browns have had covers earned against the Lions and Jaguars, only to botch both games late in the contest.
Pick: Lean on Cleveland +8.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Cleveland 15
The pick: Cleveland and the under --- CLV +8.5, 38
Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at New York Jets
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 86 percent Carolina
Phil Steele's take: The Jets are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home 'dog this year with three outright upsets, but did lose to New England by seven and Atlanta by five. While many expected the Jets to be one of the worst in the NFL they have won four games and their minus-40 yards per game is No. 24 in the league. They did trail Tampa Bay last week 15-3 before a touchdown with :28 left in their 5-point loss. Carolina's defense is holding foes to 77 yards per game below their season average, which is best in the NFL. Carolina's offense has averaged 439 yards per game the last three weeks with Cam Newton starting to look like the 2015 version. Technical handicappers will be all over the Jets with Carolina just 1-7-1 as an away favorite, but that is why this Carolina is only favored by 4.5 here and I will stick with one of the NFL's best that can't afford a slip up while chasing the Saints and Eagles. The potential return of Greg Olsen should make this surging offense even more potent.
Pick: Lean on Carolina -4.5
Warren Sharp's take: After difficult performances with losses to the Eagles and Bears, Carolina has rolled off three straight wins and is now off a bye. The Panthers may get the services of Greg Olsen back, making for an extremely diverse offense, particularly if they can get the run game going again. That is the matchup that could determine the outcome to this game. The Jets have faced a brutal schedule of strong run offenses. If they can slow down the 19th ranked Panthers run offense this game will likely be extremely close. However, the Panthers' third-ranked run defense will be just their second opponent ranking inside the top-10 in run defense.
ATS pick: Lean Panthers -4.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 23, New York Jets 19
The pick: New York Jets and the over --- NYJ +4.5, 40
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: Tennessee is 6-4 this year and would be the top wild card if the season ended today. The Titans beat the Colts by 14 at home on Monday night earlier this year and after a loss to Pittsburgh last Thursday, they now face four straight teams with losing records. Life appears to be good for the Titans at the moment. The Colts are just 3-7, but are worth a look as a home 'dog here . While they are minus-85 yards per game on the season, they have adapted to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback (plus-30 yards per game over last three) and in their last game they led Pittsburgh 17-3 in the third quarter. In that Monday night game, I had Tennessee -7 and caught a break when the Titans were running out the clock and got a fortuitous 72-yard touchdown run for the cover that also padded the stats. Tennessee is minus 41 yards per game the last four weeks with wins by a combined 10 points along with a 23-point loss. They have lost their last four road games ATS with Marcus Mariota having just a 2-7 ratio away from Nashville.
ATS pick: Indianapolis +3.5
Warren Sharp's take: The key matchup will be whether the Colts run defense, ranking 19th on the year but playing even stronger of late, can slow down the third-ranked rushing attack of the Titans. The Colts defense has played well of late, but after mustering up only 17 points in a blowout loss to the Steelers in their last game, the Titans absolutely must rebound in this spot. Meanwhile, the Colts just saw Jacoby Brissett diagnosed with a concussion following his game with the Steelers.
ATS pick: Colts +3.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 26, Indianapolis 23
The pick: Indianapolis and the over --- IND +3.5, 44
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: It is beginning to look a lot like last year when Tampa Bay started out slow before rallying to finish 9-7 and just missing out on a playoff berth. They opened 2-6, but delivered me winners each of the last two weeks. The Falcons have been struggling with the Super Bowl jinx and have been favored by six or more four times this year without an ATS cover. Atlanta is off a big win on Monday night in Seattle and has a huge home game versus Minnesota on deck. Tampa Bay is 0-2 on the road versus the elite of the NFL (lost to Minnesota by 17 and New Orleans by 20). Tampa Bay is minus-41 yards per game this year and minus-98 yards per game on the road. Atlanta is plus-56 yards per game, which is seventh best in the NFL. NFL favorites of nine or more have struggled this year at 4-8 ATS and this is a large sandwich situation for Atlanta. All the talk will be about Atlanta's high-flying offense returning after 34 points versus that rugged Seattle defense. A peek under the hood shows just 279 yards of total offense against a banged-up Seahawks crew. With the line up to 9.5, Tampa Bay is in a solid situation and will be confident after winning its last two trips to Atlanta.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay +9.5
Warren Sharp's take: Atlanta appears to have found its groove, but let's examine the Falcons' two most recent opponents. Tremendous in name, the Cowboys and Seahawks were dealing with complete identity-changing injuries. The Cowboys were without Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee; the Seahawks were without Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril. Neither of these teams are anything like their historical selves. The Falcons' passing offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease against the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay's offense could still be productive, assuming they can run the ball on the Falcons 28th ranked run defense.
ATS pick: Lean Buccaneers +9.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 26, Tampa Bay 20
The pick: Tampa Bay and the under --- TB +9.5, 48.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: The Patriots were thought to have a shot at an unbeaten season, but in their first four games they allowed 32 PPG and went 2-2. Since then the defense returned to last year's form and they have their last six allowing just 12.5 PPG (covered their last four). Miami somehow opened the season 4-2 and I have gone against them each of the last four weeks. They have lost those four games by 19 points per game. Miami has also lost four of its last five road games by an average of 24.5 points per game. New England is off a tough Denver/Mexico City road trip and favorites of nine or more are just 4-8 ATS this year across the NFL. Miami is however just 1-6 ATS as a division away 'dog and New England is 6-2 ATS at home against the Dolphins with an 18-point average margin of victory.
ATS pick: Lean on New England -16
Warren Sharp's take: In an incredible display of undisciplined football, the Dolphins lost the turnover battle 5-0 against the Buccaneers, and yet somehow this game was tied the final 3 minutes at 20-20 before the Buccaneers kicked a 35-yard field goal and then recovered a fumble in the end zone on the game's final play. Tampa Bay's lone TDs came when they received turnovers giving them starting field position on the Dolphins 5- and 35-yard line. The Patriots handled a royally inept Raiders defense with ease, but their own defense was gashed in efficiency by Oakland, with the Raiders averaging 55 percent success rate on all plays, including 76 percent on run plays for an average of 5.2 yards per carry. But with only eight drives in the game, the Raiders could not afford to end possessions with punts in the Patriots territory, which they did twice. They also drove inside the Patriots 21-yard line on three drives, but walked away with points on just one of the three drives.
ATS pick: Miami +16
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 33, Miami 17
The pick: Over 48
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: Entering Week 12 of the NFL, favorites of nine points or more this year have gone just 4-8 ATS. The Eagles were able to buck that trend a few weeks ago however with a 33-10 win over the 49ers as a 12.5-point favorite. The Bears have played well on the road as they lost to Tampa Bay and Green Bay due to minus-seven in turnovers with Mike Glennon at quarterback. They beat Baltimore outright in overtime and only lost to the Saints by eight in the Superdome. Last week at home they outgained the Lions, but lost by three.Philadelphia's offense had a typical slow first half off a bye last week, but beat Dallas on the road 37-9. The Eagles are plus 71 yards per game on the season. The Eagles have covered seven in a row and I have been with them every step of the way. They have won their last three games by 27 points per game and I am not hopping off this train until it stops.
ATS pick: Lean on Philadelphia -13.5
Erin Rynning's take: No question the Eagles are flying high on offense averaging an NFL best 32 ppg. However, the offense does rank just 6th in yards per play and certainly don't sleep in their defense that's holding the opposition to just over 300 yards per game. The Bears and namely John Fox just love to slow the game down. They'll do everything in their power to keep this Eagles team grounded with their hard charging run game and a defense that's once again much better than public perception.
Pick: Under 44
Warren Sharp's take: The Bears have been kind to us this year, and they've cut their teeth against extremely stout defenses, playing the third-most difficult schedule in the league. They've perfected losing as underdogs but still covering. That said, this is the type of opponent they struggle with -- one with a strong rushing defense. Looking at the Bears' most recent covers with respectable offensive performance, those were against the Lions, Saints and Ravens, three teams that rank below average in run defense. The Bears offense did nothing against the Panthers (won thanks to two defensive scores) and was even bogged down against the Packers defense; both defenses rank top-10 against the run. The Eagles rank seventh against the run, and should be able to somewhat bottle up the Bears ground game and try to force Mitchell Trubisky to beat them.
ATS pick: Lean on Philadelphia -13.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Chicago 14
The pick: Philadelphia and the under --- PHI -13.5, 44
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Buffalo
Phil Steele's take: After five weeks and impressive wins at New England and Houston (with Deshaun Watson) the Chiefs looked like the best team in football. They are just 1-4 since while being outgained by 44 yards per game over the last four weeks. Can they turn the switch on at home and reignite their playoff hopes with five of their final six opponents having losing records? When Buffalo was 5-2, I thought they were the most overrated team in the NFL and they have now lost their last three games by 13, 37 and 30 points (135 points allowed in that span is a team record). Buffalo has been outgained in every game except the opener and last week tried to ignite the offense by inserting rookie Nathan Peterman at quarterback. After five first-half interceptions, Tyrod Taylor was back under center. I rate Taylor a below-average quarterback, but the offense is built around his running ability which could exploit a Chiefs defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry. With the Chiefs also looking to get their offense back on track after a lackluster effort against the Giants where they mustered just three field goals, my lean will be towards the over in this one.
Pick: Lean on Over 45
Warren Sharp's take: In my view it was fairly irresponsible of Sean McDermott to insert Nathan Peterman against the sixth-rated pass defense of the Chargers, when he could have waited until this week to insert him against the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. The Chiefs also rank 22nd in pass rush efficiency as opposed to the third-ranked Chargers. For the Chiefs, their run game has completely disappeared. Even though they were 52 percent successful when rushing the ball last week and played in windy conditions, they still passed the ball 59 percent of the time despite only 43 percent of passes being successful. Buffalo theoretically should be able to run against the Chiefs, who rank as the NFL's worst run defense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 25, Buffalo 20
The pick: Buffalo and the over --- BUF +10, 45
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: The Seahawks head to Santa Clara following a rare prime-time loss in Seattle last Monday, against the Falcons where they finished with a 360-279 yardage edge. The 49ers earned their first win of the season two weeks ago against the Giants and played surprisingly well in Seattle earlier this year in the 3-point defeat (+13.5). With favorites of nine points or more posting just a 4-8 ATS record across the NFL so far in 2017 and the Seahawks being unable to cover on quite a few occasions (3-6-1 ATS this season), I'll lean with the 49ers in this one as they've covered six of their past nine as a division home 'dog dating back to 2009.
Pick: Lean on San Francisco +6.5
Erin Rynning's take: I'm confident 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was tuned into the Monday night affair as his former Falcons offense made play after play against the banged-up Seahawks defense. With two weeks to prep and taking the best of what worked Monday night, the 49ers should be poised to put points on the board. Of course, it helps as the Seahawks are now undermanned in the secondary without All-Pros Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson clearly understands the onus is shifting to the offense to outscore the opposition as this unit is known to pick up steam down the stretch.
Pick: Over 43.5
Warren Sharp's take: The early word is that without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, the Seahawks don't stand a chance to make the postseason let alone do anything while there. That the media was so quick to spin this hot take narrative is certainly to Pete Carroll's liking. With the 49ers still reluctant to start Jimmy Garoppolo, the team will lean on C.J. Beathard and his prior performance against the Giants. However, while both the Giants and Seahawks defenses are down on personnel, the difference was the Seahawks defense is actually trying, whereas the Giants clearly were not. And in Beathard's two starts against average defenses (Cowboys and Cardinals) he put up 10 points in each game. I'm interested to see what Kyle Shanahan did in the bye to help improve the offense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 26, San Francisco 17
The pick: Seattle -6.5
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Oakland
Phil Steele's take: Last week was a big one for the Broncos as they were in the altitude for a second straight week and caught the Bengals on a third straight road trip. They expected to beat the Bengals and use that as a springboard to get back into the playoff chase. They had a 342-190 yard edge but a 99-yard interception return was a 14-point swing in a 3-point defeat. Their playoff hopes are now extremely slim, especially with four road games over the last five weeks. The AFC is wide open and once you get past the four division leaders, my pick for the next best team is actually these 4-6 Raiders. They showed in the opener that they were better than the Titans, beating them on the road by 10. They beat Kansas City and lost three games when Derek Carr was either injured or just getting back from injury. A loss to New England is understandable. In his last home game Carr helped Oakland put up 505 yards on the Chiefs. While Denver has the clear defensive edge, the Raiders have a massive edge on offense and when the smoke clears, I believe you will see Oakland in the playoffs. This 5-point spread is too cheap for me to pass on.
ATS pick: Oakland -5
Warren Sharp's take: This AFC West matchup has spiraled into the battle of the teams so disappointing they took turns firing coordinators this week. The Raiders fired their defensive coordinator while the Broncos fired their offensive coordinator. Oakland certainly has an issue with its defense, but the offense is the more surprising element of the team. They were projected to have a great offense and a bad defense, yet their offense has only looked good and posted above-average numbers thanks to playing a bottom-five schedule. This offense is struggling far more than numbers would indicate. Outside offor a late rally to score 31 points at home over the Chiefs and a win over the reeling Dolphins, the Raiders have played their other last six games without exceeding 17 points in any contest. The Broncos defense is not as strong as years past, but if they were able to get any help offensively, it could help the defense turn the corner. Paxton Lynch will make his season debut for Denver.
Pick: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Saints looked like the same old squad from recent seasons over the first two weeks, allowing 470 and 555 yards in losses to Minnesota and New England. Since then the defense has held foes to 280 yards per game and they have won eight in a row. The Saints are No. 2 in the NFL the last four weeks at plus-163 yards per game. I usually do not go against streaking teams, but they have dropped two of the last four ATS, including last week when they trailed Washington 31-16 in the fourth quarter. Their last seven wins have been over just two teams with a winning record. They are plus-124 yards per game on the road which is even better than their home mark of plus-54 yards per game. The Rams had the most explosive offense in the NFL, but were held to just one touchdown by the Vikings excellent defense last week in Minnesota. The Rams are also plus-124 yards per game at home. While the Saints are the stronger team statistically, the Rams are laying less than a field goal following a rough outing away from home.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles -2.5
Erin Rynning's take: Sometimes the best thing for a team is simply a loss. That should be the case with this young Rams team that came up woefully short last week on the road in Minnesota. Again, it's a chance for this team to grow and learn from its mistakes with such a strong coaching staff. The Rams have shown they possess the talent in all three phases to battle for NFL supremacy. This will serve as a flat spot for the Saints after their miraculous comeback win against the Redskins a week ago. Yes, it's difficult to find fault in their recent resume but this is a firm step up in class from weeks of the Bills, Buccaneers, Bears, Packers and Redskins.
ATS pick: Rams -2.5
Warren Sharp's take: Both of these teams suffered underrated losses to personnel last week that may not get many headlines but are fairly critical. The Saints lost a top pass-rusher, Alex Okafor, for the rest of the season, while the Rams lost WR Robert Woods for multiple weeks. Woods was quietly the most productive receiving option in the Rams' passing attack. Cooper Kupp has not been as reliable, and it will be up to Sean McVay to scheme another receiver into that valuable role that Woods vacates this week. While the Redskins exploited this pass defense, the Saints pass defense still ranks fourth best in the league and will be a test for the Rams passing offense sans-Woods. This game may come down to the Saints ability to run the ball on the Rams' 20th-ranked run defense, which has not faced particularly tough rushing competition (26th-rated schedule of run offenses).
ATS pick: Lean Saints +2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 27, New Orleans 26
The pick: New Orleans and the under --- NO +2.5, 53.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars have been an up and down team all year as they've alternated spread wins and losses throughout (if you count the bye as a loss week they are a perfect 11-0 ATS in this pattern with this current week being an expected defeat). I expected Arizona to be a playoff contender at the start of the year. That has changed however with the losses of start running back David Johnson, some key defensive players and third string Blaine Gabbert now under center. Gabbert was released by Jacksonville so he will have an axe to grind against the Jaguars No. 1 defense that is allowing just 276 yards per game. Jacksonville did get a fortunate cover at Cleveland last week with a late fumble return touchdown, but that was in some inclement weather. A trip to the desert should be more to their liking. Jacksonville is No. 1 in the NFL at plus 181 yards per game the last four weeks while also holding foes to 90 yards per game below their season average in that span. Over the last four weeks Arizona has gained 66 yards per game less than their opponents allow and if those stats hold true, Arizona will have 218 total yards making it tough to cover a game with that amount.
Pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: This game should come down to Adrian Peterson. If he's able to help the NFL's least efficient rushing offense perform much better than their ranking, the Cardinals stand a good chance to pull off the upset. But chances are that is unlikely, given the strength that Marcel Darius has added to the run defense of the Jaguars. Since acquiring Darius, the Jaguars run defense has allowed 166 yds total rushing yards and one rushing TD in three games. The Cardinals defense, missing Tyvon Branch, was just outplayed by Tom Savage, who delivered 69 percent completions, a 55 percent success rate and a 97 rating. While the Cardinals have a solid home field edge, it's difficult to see a clear path for the Cardinals, who have been dominated by good defenses.
Play: Jaguars -4.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 24, Arizona 16
The pick: Jacksonville and the over --- JAX -4.5, 38
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's Week 12 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Thursday, November 23
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Detroit Lions
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Detroit has been great on Thanksgiving, winning the last four straight up and against the spread. They are used to playing on the holiday and catch their opponent traveling on a short rest. Detroit already won at Minnesota this year 14-7 and beat the Vikings twice last year. The Vikings are clearly one of the top teams in the NFL and they have outgained their opponents in nine of their 10 games (plus-82 yards per game). Detroit, meanwhile, has been doing it with smoke and mirrors as they have been outgained in seven games (minus-16 yards per game) despite being 6-4. The Vikings are the stronger team, but the situation favors Detroit. With the line move Minnesota has to win by more than a field goal, so I'm passing on the side.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: Interesting dynamics for both teams as they enter with a combined nine-game win streak. The Vikings sit two games ahead of the Lions in the race for the NFC North, and they are the superior team. Minnesota's defensive talent was clearly on display again last week in holding the upstart Los Angeles Rams to just seven points. With the Lions' lack of run game the Vikings should be able to hold in check the one-dimensional Lions. The Vikings offense won't be compared to a few of the juggernaut units around the NFL, but the Lions have allowed 21.7 PPGover their last three to the Bears, Packers and Browns.
ATS pick: Lean Vikings -3
Warren Sharp's take: Detroit's metrics aren't what you would think they are, for a 6-4 team. They have played a very difficult schedule of run defenses, but they absolutely can't run effectively, ranking third worst in efficiency. In their Week 4 meeting, the Lions managed just a 35 percent success rate and 3.1 yards per carry. In that game, the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook after he ran the ball for a 69 percent success rate and 5.1 yards per carry, and they had to replace him with Latavius Murray for the majority of the second half, who couldn't get the job done. The entire game fell on the shoulders of Case Keenum at that point, and Keenum recorded a 66 passer rating in the second half, averaging just 5.9 yards per pass. Matthew Stafford has a history of not playing well against Mike Zimmer's defense, but without yet knowing the status of Vikings safeties Andrew Sendejo, Anthony Harris and CB Xavier Rhodes (as well as DE Ezekiel Ansah for the Lions), it's difficult to forecast this one.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Detroit 22
The pick: Detroit and the over --- DET +3, 44.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 50 percent each
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers opened the year 0-4, but that included three defeats by three or less including a couple with a missed field goal at the end. They are 4-2 since then including another 3-point loss to Jacksonville, a game they had the ball and the lead twice in the final minutes. Joey Bosa leads a defense that has recorded 30 sacks and Philip Rivers, who opened the year with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio, has a 13-3 ratio over the last seven games. They play in the AFC where a .500 record could be good enough for the playoffs. Dallas has been without running back Ezekiel Elliott, left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. They may get Smith back here, which would be crucial in pass protection after they allowed 12 sacks over the previous two weeks without his services. The Chargers' arrow is pointing up and the Cowboys just suffered their worst home defeat since 2004. My initial lean was to take the 'dog, but with the Chargers now favored I will give a slight lean to the home team as they rise up and win a close one.
Pick: Lean on Dallas +1
Erin Rynning's take: Perhaps the sky is falling on the Cowboys, but the Chargers possess much less bite than the Falcons and Eagles. The key for the Cowboys is to rev the running game back in gear in this matchup. The Chargers are an allowing 139 rush yards per game (NFL worst) and 4.9 yards per carry (31st). The Cowboys hope to be much healthier on the offensive line in this tilt to help control the line of scrimmage. With the Cowboys once again controlling the clock look for Philip Rivers impatient style lead to mistakes to once again cost the Chargers another close game.
Pick: Dallas +1 and lean under 48
Warren Sharp's take: As discussed last week, the most vital single piece missing for the Cowboys is Sean Lee. In the three full games he's missed, the Cowboys defense is allowing 6.3 yards per carry, as opposed to 3.8 in games he finishes. Dallas may get the services of Tyron Smith back, but I shudder to think what would happen if they did not, as their last two opponents when missing Smith ranked 14th and 18th in pass protection efficiency, whereas the Chargers' defense ranks third best. The weakness of the Chargers defense has been against the run, but that has improved tremendously the last two weeks with the return of LB Denzel Perryman.
The Chargers run offense, particularly with Melvin Gordon, isn't great but they've been incorporating RB Austin Ekeler much more over the past few weeks, and are going against the Lee-less Cowboys. Dallas won't be able to run as efficiently and Dak Prescott will have to drop back to pass often against this strong pass rush defense of the Chargers.
Pick: Lean Los Angeles -1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Dallas 22
The pick: Under 48
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Washington
Phil Steele's take: Last week's results give us some line value this week as the Redskins were favored by 8.5 prior to last week and the line has dropped to 7. The Giants were thought to be a playoff team at the start of the year, but are just 2-8. They have two big wins versus Denver and Kansas City in the two games they were listed as a double digit 'dog. Their eight losses have been by 12.5 points per game and they are dead last in the NFL being outgained by 88 yards per game with a banged-up team. Washington had both Kansas City and New Orleans (led 31-16) beat, but lost both games late. They have taken on the NFL's toughest schedule facing the Eagles twice, Oakland with Derek Carr healthy, the Rams, the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott, the Seahawks, the Vikings and the previously mentioned teams they blew late leads against. Despite this gauntlet they are only minus-4 yards per game. Last year the Redskins were upset by the Giants which knocked them out of playoff contention. Washington gets its revenge here and starts a late-season surge with a softer schedule.
ATS pick: Washington -7.5
Erin Rynning's take: Hats off to the Giants and Ben McAdoo for rallying last week to beat the Chiefs. However, trusting this 2-8 squad to show up two weeks in a row and on a short week seems unlikely. Off their Sunday night win against the Broncos earlier in the campaign the Giants were outgained by almost 250 yards the following week in losing to Seattle. The Redskins have dropped four of their last five, however they've shown continued moxie throughout the season. The key portion of their offensive line has regained health as their offense is clicking. Meanwhile, slowing and shutting down the feeble Giants offense is rather easily done.
ATS pick: Lean Redskins at -7 or less
Warren Sharp's take: Last week against a decent rushing offense, but one that has completely lost its way in recent weeks, the Giants run defense rose up and forced Kansas City to pass the ball. Even in the windy conditions, the Chiefs passed the ball 59 percent of offensive plays, with only 43 percent being successful, and they threw three interceptions. The Redskins could be in a similar situation, with yet another injury to a starting RB, Washington must rely on rookie RB Samaje Perine. Both offenses are operating with men down. The Redskins WR corps is getting depleted, with Terrelle Pryor being placed on the IR on Monday. Many receivers are questionable as of Tuesday morning, including Redskins' Jordan Reed and Giants' Sterling Shepard. The Giants are expected to be without RT D.J. Fluker, which comes after losing RT Justin Pugh before last week's game.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 27, New York Giants 19
The pick: Washington and the over --- WAS -7.5, 45
Sunday, November 26
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Cincinnati
Phil Steele's take: Cleveland has been very competitive this year, as despite having the worst record in the NFL at 0-10, they are only being outgained by 13 yards per game (No. 18 in the NFL). The Bengals meanwhile are being outgained by 57 yards per game. Cincinnati got a 14-point swing last week in Denver by returning an attempted goal line pass 99 yards to set up the eventual touchdown. They won at Denver despite being outgained 341-190 (20-12 first down deficit). That was a third straight road game for them and while they did not deserve to win, their 4-6 record makes them a surprising playoff contender in the lackluster AFC. The Bengals have won six in a row versus the Browns both straight up and ATS by an average of 23 points per game (won in Cleveland for me as an ATS pick earlier this year 31-7). Cleveland has lost all but one of its road games by 14 or more with the exception being a 3-point loss at Indianapolis, a game in which they trailed 28-7.
Pick: Lean on Cincinnati -8.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Bengals defense is an enigma. Despite ranking middle of the pack in most all defensive categories against a much easier than average schedule, the Bengals rank as one of the worst defenses on third down. They should get a reprieve in that area, as they face the NFL's worst third down offense on Sunday. The Bengals have the fifth-worst pass protecting line. While they did pull out the win in Denver, the Bengals have struggled against strong pass rushes, going 1-4 against teams ranking in the top 15 (lone win was last week in Denver), but the Bengals are 3-2 against teams in the bottom half of pass pressure, and the two losses were both narrow losses on the road, in Green Bay (with Rodgers) and in Tennessee. The last two weeks, the Browns have had covers earned against the Lions and Jaguars, only to botch both games late in the contest.
Pick: Lean on Cleveland +8.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Cleveland 15
The pick: Cleveland and the under --- CLV +8.5, 38
Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at New York Jets
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 86 percent Carolina
Phil Steele's take: The Jets are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home 'dog this year with three outright upsets, but did lose to New England by seven and Atlanta by five. While many expected the Jets to be one of the worst in the NFL they have won four games and their minus-40 yards per game is No. 24 in the league. They did trail Tampa Bay last week 15-3 before a touchdown with :28 left in their 5-point loss. Carolina's defense is holding foes to 77 yards per game below their season average, which is best in the NFL. Carolina's offense has averaged 439 yards per game the last three weeks with Cam Newton starting to look like the 2015 version. Technical handicappers will be all over the Jets with Carolina just 1-7-1 as an away favorite, but that is why this Carolina is only favored by 4.5 here and I will stick with one of the NFL's best that can't afford a slip up while chasing the Saints and Eagles. The potential return of Greg Olsen should make this surging offense even more potent.
Pick: Lean on Carolina -4.5
Warren Sharp's take: After difficult performances with losses to the Eagles and Bears, Carolina has rolled off three straight wins and is now off a bye. The Panthers may get the services of Greg Olsen back, making for an extremely diverse offense, particularly if they can get the run game going again. That is the matchup that could determine the outcome to this game. The Jets have faced a brutal schedule of strong run offenses. If they can slow down the 19th ranked Panthers run offense this game will likely be extremely close. However, the Panthers' third-ranked run defense will be just their second opponent ranking inside the top-10 in run defense.
ATS pick: Lean Panthers -4.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 23, New York Jets 19
The pick: New York Jets and the over --- NYJ +4.5, 40
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: Tennessee is 6-4 this year and would be the top wild card if the season ended today. The Titans beat the Colts by 14 at home on Monday night earlier this year and after a loss to Pittsburgh last Thursday, they now face four straight teams with losing records. Life appears to be good for the Titans at the moment. The Colts are just 3-7, but are worth a look as a home 'dog here . While they are minus-85 yards per game on the season, they have adapted to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback (plus-30 yards per game over last three) and in their last game they led Pittsburgh 17-3 in the third quarter. In that Monday night game, I had Tennessee -7 and caught a break when the Titans were running out the clock and got a fortuitous 72-yard touchdown run for the cover that also padded the stats. Tennessee is minus 41 yards per game the last four weeks with wins by a combined 10 points along with a 23-point loss. They have lost their last four road games ATS with Marcus Mariota having just a 2-7 ratio away from Nashville.
ATS pick: Indianapolis +3.5
Warren Sharp's take: The key matchup will be whether the Colts run defense, ranking 19th on the year but playing even stronger of late, can slow down the third-ranked rushing attack of the Titans. The Colts defense has played well of late, but after mustering up only 17 points in a blowout loss to the Steelers in their last game, the Titans absolutely must rebound in this spot. Meanwhile, the Colts just saw Jacoby Brissett diagnosed with a concussion following his game with the Steelers.
ATS pick: Colts +3.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 26, Indianapolis 23
The pick: Indianapolis and the over --- IND +3.5, 44
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: It is beginning to look a lot like last year when Tampa Bay started out slow before rallying to finish 9-7 and just missing out on a playoff berth. They opened 2-6, but delivered me winners each of the last two weeks. The Falcons have been struggling with the Super Bowl jinx and have been favored by six or more four times this year without an ATS cover. Atlanta is off a big win on Monday night in Seattle and has a huge home game versus Minnesota on deck. Tampa Bay is 0-2 on the road versus the elite of the NFL (lost to Minnesota by 17 and New Orleans by 20). Tampa Bay is minus-41 yards per game this year and minus-98 yards per game on the road. Atlanta is plus-56 yards per game, which is seventh best in the NFL. NFL favorites of nine or more have struggled this year at 4-8 ATS and this is a large sandwich situation for Atlanta. All the talk will be about Atlanta's high-flying offense returning after 34 points versus that rugged Seattle defense. A peek under the hood shows just 279 yards of total offense against a banged-up Seahawks crew. With the line up to 9.5, Tampa Bay is in a solid situation and will be confident after winning its last two trips to Atlanta.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay +9.5
Warren Sharp's take: Atlanta appears to have found its groove, but let's examine the Falcons' two most recent opponents. Tremendous in name, the Cowboys and Seahawks were dealing with complete identity-changing injuries. The Cowboys were without Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee; the Seahawks were without Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril. Neither of these teams are anything like their historical selves. The Falcons' passing offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease against the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay's offense could still be productive, assuming they can run the ball on the Falcons 28th ranked run defense.
ATS pick: Lean Buccaneers +9.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 26, Tampa Bay 20
The pick: Tampa Bay and the under --- TB +9.5, 48.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: The Patriots were thought to have a shot at an unbeaten season, but in their first four games they allowed 32 PPG and went 2-2. Since then the defense returned to last year's form and they have their last six allowing just 12.5 PPG (covered their last four). Miami somehow opened the season 4-2 and I have gone against them each of the last four weeks. They have lost those four games by 19 points per game. Miami has also lost four of its last five road games by an average of 24.5 points per game. New England is off a tough Denver/Mexico City road trip and favorites of nine or more are just 4-8 ATS this year across the NFL. Miami is however just 1-6 ATS as a division away 'dog and New England is 6-2 ATS at home against the Dolphins with an 18-point average margin of victory.
ATS pick: Lean on New England -16
Warren Sharp's take: In an incredible display of undisciplined football, the Dolphins lost the turnover battle 5-0 against the Buccaneers, and yet somehow this game was tied the final 3 minutes at 20-20 before the Buccaneers kicked a 35-yard field goal and then recovered a fumble in the end zone on the game's final play. Tampa Bay's lone TDs came when they received turnovers giving them starting field position on the Dolphins 5- and 35-yard line. The Patriots handled a royally inept Raiders defense with ease, but their own defense was gashed in efficiency by Oakland, with the Raiders averaging 55 percent success rate on all plays, including 76 percent on run plays for an average of 5.2 yards per carry. But with only eight drives in the game, the Raiders could not afford to end possessions with punts in the Patriots territory, which they did twice. They also drove inside the Patriots 21-yard line on three drives, but walked away with points on just one of the three drives.
ATS pick: Miami +16
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 33, Miami 17
The pick: Over 48
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: Entering Week 12 of the NFL, favorites of nine points or more this year have gone just 4-8 ATS. The Eagles were able to buck that trend a few weeks ago however with a 33-10 win over the 49ers as a 12.5-point favorite. The Bears have played well on the road as they lost to Tampa Bay and Green Bay due to minus-seven in turnovers with Mike Glennon at quarterback. They beat Baltimore outright in overtime and only lost to the Saints by eight in the Superdome. Last week at home they outgained the Lions, but lost by three.Philadelphia's offense had a typical slow first half off a bye last week, but beat Dallas on the road 37-9. The Eagles are plus 71 yards per game on the season. The Eagles have covered seven in a row and I have been with them every step of the way. They have won their last three games by 27 points per game and I am not hopping off this train until it stops.
ATS pick: Lean on Philadelphia -13.5
Erin Rynning's take: No question the Eagles are flying high on offense averaging an NFL best 32 ppg. However, the offense does rank just 6th in yards per play and certainly don't sleep in their defense that's holding the opposition to just over 300 yards per game. The Bears and namely John Fox just love to slow the game down. They'll do everything in their power to keep this Eagles team grounded with their hard charging run game and a defense that's once again much better than public perception.
Pick: Under 44
Warren Sharp's take: The Bears have been kind to us this year, and they've cut their teeth against extremely stout defenses, playing the third-most difficult schedule in the league. They've perfected losing as underdogs but still covering. That said, this is the type of opponent they struggle with -- one with a strong rushing defense. Looking at the Bears' most recent covers with respectable offensive performance, those were against the Lions, Saints and Ravens, three teams that rank below average in run defense. The Bears offense did nothing against the Panthers (won thanks to two defensive scores) and was even bogged down against the Packers defense; both defenses rank top-10 against the run. The Eagles rank seventh against the run, and should be able to somewhat bottle up the Bears ground game and try to force Mitchell Trubisky to beat them.
ATS pick: Lean on Philadelphia -13.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Chicago 14
The pick: Philadelphia and the under --- PHI -13.5, 44
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Buffalo
Phil Steele's take: After five weeks and impressive wins at New England and Houston (with Deshaun Watson) the Chiefs looked like the best team in football. They are just 1-4 since while being outgained by 44 yards per game over the last four weeks. Can they turn the switch on at home and reignite their playoff hopes with five of their final six opponents having losing records? When Buffalo was 5-2, I thought they were the most overrated team in the NFL and they have now lost their last three games by 13, 37 and 30 points (135 points allowed in that span is a team record). Buffalo has been outgained in every game except the opener and last week tried to ignite the offense by inserting rookie Nathan Peterman at quarterback. After five first-half interceptions, Tyrod Taylor was back under center. I rate Taylor a below-average quarterback, but the offense is built around his running ability which could exploit a Chiefs defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry. With the Chiefs also looking to get their offense back on track after a lackluster effort against the Giants where they mustered just three field goals, my lean will be towards the over in this one.
Pick: Lean on Over 45
Warren Sharp's take: In my view it was fairly irresponsible of Sean McDermott to insert Nathan Peterman against the sixth-rated pass defense of the Chargers, when he could have waited until this week to insert him against the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. The Chiefs also rank 22nd in pass rush efficiency as opposed to the third-ranked Chargers. For the Chiefs, their run game has completely disappeared. Even though they were 52 percent successful when rushing the ball last week and played in windy conditions, they still passed the ball 59 percent of the time despite only 43 percent of passes being successful. Buffalo theoretically should be able to run against the Chiefs, who rank as the NFL's worst run defense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 25, Buffalo 20
The pick: Buffalo and the over --- BUF +10, 45
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: The Seahawks head to Santa Clara following a rare prime-time loss in Seattle last Monday, against the Falcons where they finished with a 360-279 yardage edge. The 49ers earned their first win of the season two weeks ago against the Giants and played surprisingly well in Seattle earlier this year in the 3-point defeat (+13.5). With favorites of nine points or more posting just a 4-8 ATS record across the NFL so far in 2017 and the Seahawks being unable to cover on quite a few occasions (3-6-1 ATS this season), I'll lean with the 49ers in this one as they've covered six of their past nine as a division home 'dog dating back to 2009.
Pick: Lean on San Francisco +6.5
Erin Rynning's take: I'm confident 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was tuned into the Monday night affair as his former Falcons offense made play after play against the banged-up Seahawks defense. With two weeks to prep and taking the best of what worked Monday night, the 49ers should be poised to put points on the board. Of course, it helps as the Seahawks are now undermanned in the secondary without All-Pros Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson clearly understands the onus is shifting to the offense to outscore the opposition as this unit is known to pick up steam down the stretch.
Pick: Over 43.5
Warren Sharp's take: The early word is that without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, the Seahawks don't stand a chance to make the postseason let alone do anything while there. That the media was so quick to spin this hot take narrative is certainly to Pete Carroll's liking. With the 49ers still reluctant to start Jimmy Garoppolo, the team will lean on C.J. Beathard and his prior performance against the Giants. However, while both the Giants and Seahawks defenses are down on personnel, the difference was the Seahawks defense is actually trying, whereas the Giants clearly were not. And in Beathard's two starts against average defenses (Cowboys and Cardinals) he put up 10 points in each game. I'm interested to see what Kyle Shanahan did in the bye to help improve the offense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 26, San Francisco 17
The pick: Seattle -6.5
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Oakland
Phil Steele's take: Last week was a big one for the Broncos as they were in the altitude for a second straight week and caught the Bengals on a third straight road trip. They expected to beat the Bengals and use that as a springboard to get back into the playoff chase. They had a 342-190 yard edge but a 99-yard interception return was a 14-point swing in a 3-point defeat. Their playoff hopes are now extremely slim, especially with four road games over the last five weeks. The AFC is wide open and once you get past the four division leaders, my pick for the next best team is actually these 4-6 Raiders. They showed in the opener that they were better than the Titans, beating them on the road by 10. They beat Kansas City and lost three games when Derek Carr was either injured or just getting back from injury. A loss to New England is understandable. In his last home game Carr helped Oakland put up 505 yards on the Chiefs. While Denver has the clear defensive edge, the Raiders have a massive edge on offense and when the smoke clears, I believe you will see Oakland in the playoffs. This 5-point spread is too cheap for me to pass on.
ATS pick: Oakland -5
Warren Sharp's take: This AFC West matchup has spiraled into the battle of the teams so disappointing they took turns firing coordinators this week. The Raiders fired their defensive coordinator while the Broncos fired their offensive coordinator. Oakland certainly has an issue with its defense, but the offense is the more surprising element of the team. They were projected to have a great offense and a bad defense, yet their offense has only looked good and posted above-average numbers thanks to playing a bottom-five schedule. This offense is struggling far more than numbers would indicate. Outside offor a late rally to score 31 points at home over the Chiefs and a win over the reeling Dolphins, the Raiders have played their other last six games without exceeding 17 points in any contest. The Broncos defense is not as strong as years past, but if they were able to get any help offensively, it could help the defense turn the corner. Paxton Lynch will make his season debut for Denver.
Pick: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Saints looked like the same old squad from recent seasons over the first two weeks, allowing 470 and 555 yards in losses to Minnesota and New England. Since then the defense has held foes to 280 yards per game and they have won eight in a row. The Saints are No. 2 in the NFL the last four weeks at plus-163 yards per game. I usually do not go against streaking teams, but they have dropped two of the last four ATS, including last week when they trailed Washington 31-16 in the fourth quarter. Their last seven wins have been over just two teams with a winning record. They are plus-124 yards per game on the road which is even better than their home mark of plus-54 yards per game. The Rams had the most explosive offense in the NFL, but were held to just one touchdown by the Vikings excellent defense last week in Minnesota. The Rams are also plus-124 yards per game at home. While the Saints are the stronger team statistically, the Rams are laying less than a field goal following a rough outing away from home.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles -2.5
Erin Rynning's take: Sometimes the best thing for a team is simply a loss. That should be the case with this young Rams team that came up woefully short last week on the road in Minnesota. Again, it's a chance for this team to grow and learn from its mistakes with such a strong coaching staff. The Rams have shown they possess the talent in all three phases to battle for NFL supremacy. This will serve as a flat spot for the Saints after their miraculous comeback win against the Redskins a week ago. Yes, it's difficult to find fault in their recent resume but this is a firm step up in class from weeks of the Bills, Buccaneers, Bears, Packers and Redskins.
ATS pick: Rams -2.5
Warren Sharp's take: Both of these teams suffered underrated losses to personnel last week that may not get many headlines but are fairly critical. The Saints lost a top pass-rusher, Alex Okafor, for the rest of the season, while the Rams lost WR Robert Woods for multiple weeks. Woods was quietly the most productive receiving option in the Rams' passing attack. Cooper Kupp has not been as reliable, and it will be up to Sean McVay to scheme another receiver into that valuable role that Woods vacates this week. While the Redskins exploited this pass defense, the Saints pass defense still ranks fourth best in the league and will be a test for the Rams passing offense sans-Woods. This game may come down to the Saints ability to run the ball on the Rams' 20th-ranked run defense, which has not faced particularly tough rushing competition (26th-rated schedule of run offenses).
ATS pick: Lean Saints +2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 27, New Orleans 26
The pick: New Orleans and the under --- NO +2.5, 53.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars have been an up and down team all year as they've alternated spread wins and losses throughout (if you count the bye as a loss week they are a perfect 11-0 ATS in this pattern with this current week being an expected defeat). I expected Arizona to be a playoff contender at the start of the year. That has changed however with the losses of start running back David Johnson, some key defensive players and third string Blaine Gabbert now under center. Gabbert was released by Jacksonville so he will have an axe to grind against the Jaguars No. 1 defense that is allowing just 276 yards per game. Jacksonville did get a fortunate cover at Cleveland last week with a late fumble return touchdown, but that was in some inclement weather. A trip to the desert should be more to their liking. Jacksonville is No. 1 in the NFL at plus 181 yards per game the last four weeks while also holding foes to 90 yards per game below their season average in that span. Over the last four weeks Arizona has gained 66 yards per game less than their opponents allow and if those stats hold true, Arizona will have 218 total yards making it tough to cover a game with that amount.
Pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: This game should come down to Adrian Peterson. If he's able to help the NFL's least efficient rushing offense perform much better than their ranking, the Cardinals stand a good chance to pull off the upset. But chances are that is unlikely, given the strength that Marcel Darius has added to the run defense of the Jaguars. Since acquiring Darius, the Jaguars run defense has allowed 166 yds total rushing yards and one rushing TD in three games. The Cardinals defense, missing Tyvon Branch, was just outplayed by Tom Savage, who delivered 69 percent completions, a 55 percent success rate and a 97 rating. While the Cardinals have a solid home field edge, it's difficult to see a clear path for the Cardinals, who have been dominated by good defenses.
Play: Jaguars -4.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 24, Arizona 16
The pick: Jacksonville and the over --- JAX -4.5, 38
