Best CFB Week 13 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's rivalry week! Our experts are back with their Week 13 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-3 Week 12 (42-51-3 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 3-2 in Week 12 (37-20-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 3-6 in Week 12 (45-41-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5) at No. 6 Auburn Tigers
Steele: Alabama has won five of the last six Iron Bowls, with the lone loss being the famed "kick six" game, and the five wins have come by an average of 24 points. Auburn endured one of the largest sandwich games ever last week, facing a Sun Belt team smack in the middle of two home games versus No. 1 teams as a 'dog. Despite missing two games, Tigers running back Kerryon Johnson is making a real push for the Heisman with his 1,172 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Alabama is allowing just 87 yards per game on the ground, but is down four linebackers. Plus, the Tide allowed LSU to rush for 151 yards and Mississippi State to pick up 172 on the ground. Alabama's largest advantages fall with quarterback mobility, running back depth and receiving talent. However, Auburn is one of the few teams that can stand toe-to-toe with Alabama at the line of scrimmage, and it now has the edge at linebacker. Auburn is also the healthier team and is 12-6 as a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Alabama 26, Auburn 23
Coughlin: We got another Iron Bowl with a lot at stake. So much has been made of Alabama's injuries in recent weeks, especially on defense, that some people are actually saying Auburn has the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure I agree, but I will say the matchup of Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele and 'Bama OC Brian Daboll is as good as it gets. While the Tigers completely dominated the Georgia offense a couple weeks ago, I don't think they will do the same to the Tide. Between Daboll's play calling, Jalen Hurts' talent and just the overall balance of this offense, I think the Crimson Tide will handle business Saturday. They average 270 yards on the ground and over 200 yards in the air per game, and I really liked what I saw from their passing game in the fourth quarter when they came from behind to win against Mississippi State a few weeks ago. Nick Saban and the 'Bama boys win and cover.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, Auburn 20
Fallica: Which Auburn will we see Saturday? Will we again see the offensive line which was dominated by Clemson? Maybe it will be the team that didn't commit a turnover and had just five penalties for 29 yards in a near perfect effort versus Georgia? And can Auburn run the ball with authority, considering its receivers may not get a ton of separation? The historical trends indicate that when both Alabama and Auburn are good, Auburn typically wins. But I ultimately just have to go with the team that has thrived in big games and side with the ability of Hurts to create when it all breaks down.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, Auburn 17
No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5) at No. 21 Stanford Cardinal
Steele: Notre Dame just faced the option and cut blocking of Navy, but Stanford is off the "big game." The Cardinal's biggest area of improvement is the offensive line, which allowed 34 sacks last year and just 12 this year. Notre Dame improved everywhere, though. The defense is stronger versus the run and gets more pressure on the quarterback, and the pass defense went from No. 79 to No. 34 this year. On offense, Notre Dame is averaging 290 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry. The Irish have taken on the tougher schedule and is plus-88 yards per game, while Stanford is just plus-10. While Notre Dame is playing its season finale, Stanford can win the Pac-12 if Washington defeats Washington State, and the Apple Cup is going on at the same time. Running back Bryce Love isn't 100 percent healthy, and the Cardinal is averaging 141 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry over their last four games after averaging 258 and 4.1 in their first seven contests.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 31, Stanford 23
Coughlin: I rolled the dice and took Washington State versus Stanford a couple of weeks back because I wasn't sure of the status of Love, and I am going a similar route here this Saturday in Palo Alto. I think Notre Dame comes in extra motivated with a chance to get to 10 wins, which would would probably seat them No. 1 pick among the New Year's Six bowls. I'm not sure what Stanford will do here. As Fallica pointed out on Behind The Bets, wouldn't you rather have Love closer to 100 percent for a Pac-12 title game, rather than risk that by playing him in an out-of-conference game that really doesn't mean much. I mean, I want my alma mater to beat Notre Dame more than anything when they play, but I respect whatever direction David Shaw wants to go in this game. I'll go with the notion that Love wont be a big part of the game plan, and that unfortunately makes me think there is no way the Cardinal can beat the Irish on Saturday night.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 30, Stanford 19
Friday games
South Florida Bulls at No. 15 UCF Knights (-10)
Steele: UCF benefitted from a plus-five in turnovers last week to win by 26 at Temple, scoring on "drives" of 21, minus-five and five yards after turnovers in the first half. In their last five games versus FBS foes, the Knights have allowed 210 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, South Florida's lone loss was to Houston after the Cougars took their first lead of the day with 11 seconds left following an improbably fourth-down conversion. USF was the clear-cut favorite to win the conference coming into the year, and while UCF has McKenzie Milton at quarterback, USF counters with Quinton Flowers. The winner of this game is the favorite to grab the Group of 5 bid to a New Year's Day bowl. Despite being on the road, USF is capable of the upset and is getting double digits.
ATS pick: South Florida
Score: UCF 34, South Florida 31
No. 25 Virginia Tech Hokies (-7) at Virginia Cavaliers
Coughlin: 13 games. That is how many times the Cavaliers have lost to the Hokies in a row. Virginia put the country on notice when they led undefeated Miami, 28-14, last week in the second half, only to cough away the lead and fall by two scores. The talent and coaching is there for the Wahoos to come back six days later and take down their rival. On the other side, the Hokies have not impressed me in recent weeks, struggling since they went to Hard Rock Stadium to play the Hurricanes. Tech needed to stop Pitt last week four times to end the game, as the Panthers had a first-and-goal to try and win the game. The Hokies were owned by Georgia Tech in the previous week. I'll take the home underdog here.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Virginia 23, Virginia Tech 9
Navy Midshipmen at Houston Cougars (-4.5)
Coughlin: If there is a team that can get over a tough loss, it's Navy. Last week, the Midshipmen took Notre Dame to the very end before getting stopped in the last minute of the game as they tried to tie the score. They took down Houston last year, and for those who say Navy might be looking ahead to Army, I don't buy that because they have a bye week in between these games. I just don't fear anything Houston does offensively, as they have lost to Tulsa and Tulane, scoring just 17 points against those mediocre AAC defenses. I think the road team keeps it close and covers.
ATS pick: Navy
Score: Houston 28, Navy 27
Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fallica: Nebraska's defense has struggled all year long, but what we saw offensively from the Hawkeyes versus Ohio State has been an aberration and what we've seen from them against Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State and Wisconsin has been more along the lines of who they are. So, it's not the worst matchup in the world for the Huskers' beleaguered defense this week. Iowa ran over the Huskers to the tune of 40-10 last year, but I think Nebraska rallies for a win here to cap off what has been a brutal home slate in Lincoln this year. I don't think the Cornhuskers have quit yet, as evidenced by a couple of late scores last week at Penn State. It might not be pretty, but I like the Huskers here.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 24, Iowa 17
Saturday games
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers (-3)
Steele: Both teams enter this game needing a win to get to a bowl. Indiana plays in the stronger East division of the Big 10 and drew Wisconsin out of the West, while Purdue avoided Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Indiana easily could have beaten both Michigan and Michigan State. The Hoosiers have the special teams edge at No. 52 versus No. 81, and I feel they actually also have edges on both offense and defense. Indiana is a team that is better than its record, and it'll pull the upset.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Indiana 27, Purdue 23
Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (-1.5)
Steele: Air Force was a 10-win team last year and was outgained by 88 yards in its 7-point win in last year's meeting. Utah State won just three games last year, but is much stronger this year and has already clinched bowl eligibility. The Aggies' only losses are to Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Colorado State, Boise State and Wyoming (which they gave away late). In their three Mountain West road games, they've won by 51, 24 and 14 points. Air Force was averaging 38.2 points per game, but the offense has only scored a combined 33 points the last three games, and quarterback Arion Worthman was injured last week. Utah State just faced the option two weeks ago in their 14-point win over New Mexico, and it is averaging 32 points per game since inserting Jordan Love as the starter at quarterback four weeks ago. The Aggies also have the edge on defense and special teams.
ATS pick: Utah State
Score: Utah State 35, Air Force 27
Georgia Southern Eagles at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-6.5)
Steele: Georgia Southern just played its home finale and shutout South Alabama, 52-0, for its first win of the year. The Eagles were minus-92 yards per game in Sun Belt play prior to their 388-yard edge versus the Jaguars. Louisiana still needs one win to become bowl eligible. This is the Ragin' Cajuns' home finale, and Appalachian State is on deck. Jordan Davis re-took the quarterback job for Louisiana, and running back Trey Ragas ran for 132 yards last week after missing the previous week. Louisiana has gotten its ground game going over the last three weeks, averaging 257 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. Georgia Southern has allowed five teams to rush for 240 or more yards and is allowing 5.2 yards per carry, overall. It is winless in five games on the road (1-4 ATS).
ATS pick: Louisiana
Score: Louisiana 37, Georgia Southern 23
No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (-11) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Steele: While Georgia is on its third road game in four weeks, the Bulldogs don't lose the Governor's Cup often -- they're playing with legitimate revenge and have rebounded with a win in three-straight tries after losing in the year prior. They come in on a 16-2-1 ATS run and have the SEC title game on deck, and with dimming-but-not-gone playoff hopes, they can't afford a second loss. Georgia Tech just allowed Duke to rush for 319 yards and 6.3 yards per carry, and Georgia has a deep backfield that averages 267 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Georgia Tech has taken on two playoff contenders. Despite losing to Miami by just one point, the Jackets were outgained by 200 yards. They were also dominated by Clemson, trailing by three touchdowns before a garbage-time touchdown against backups resulted in a 14-point loss.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 16
Florida Atlantic Owls (-21.5) at Charlotte 49ers
Coughlin: Here we have a team that is will play in its conference title game next week after traveling to play the worst team in its division on Saturday. My usual thinking is that team will just want to go take care of business and get a win, no matter how ugly it is. However, I throw conventional wisdom out the window with Lane Kiffin. He is going into Charlotte with the gas pedal through the floor. The Owls have scored 42 or more points in five of their last six games, and they have won seven straight in the conference. I don't see them scoring less than 55 points here. Take the big road favorite.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic
Score: Florida Atlantic 63, Charlotte 28
No. 16 Michigan State Spartans (-14) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Fallica: The three meetings for these two as Big Ten foes have been heavily influenced by site. In East Lansing, the Spartans have won 45-3 and 49-0, but in the midst of their 2015 CFP run, they had to survive a 31-24 win on the road against a 4-8 Rutgers squad. That's kind of been the deal with the Spartans this year, too. Take away the blowout loss as a huge 'dog in Columbus, and you're looking at a team that lost at Northwestern, won in Ann Arbor by four points in awful weather and won by three on the road against a 5-6 Minnesota team. Last week was a rare egg from Rutgers; sure, the Knights had been blown out by the teams that should have blown them out, but games versus Nebraska, Maryland, Purdue and Illinois all were competitive. Rutgers isn't going bowling, but a fifth win here could really give the coaching staff and players a lot to build on for 2018, knowing they are getting that much closer to a bowl berth. The Scarlet Knights may not pull the outright upset, but I'd be surprised if they were again blown out. FPI agrees, calling for an eight-point MSU win here.
ATS pick: Rutgers
Score: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 24
North Texas Mean Green (-10.5) at Rice Owls
Fallica: This game really means nothing in the grand scheme of things for North Texas, as it is locked into the Conference USA title game next week at FAU, so starters might only play part of the game. Five of North Texas' eight wins have come by one score, including four of its last five (only a blowout of winless UTEP broke that streak), so there might be a little bit of luck involved in the Mean Green's 8-3 mark. Rice has played better lately, especially on offense. It's interesting to look back and see Rice was a 6.5-point favorite last year in Denton, while the Owls are now a double-digit underdog. I expect the Owls to play well against a team that will likely be looking ahead to next week.
ATS pick: Rice
Score: North Texas 34, Rice 26
Old Dominion Monarchs at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-12)
Fallica: The Blue Raiders need a win for bowl eligibility, but ODU has played better of late, winning three straight. Middle Tennessee has really been picked apart by injuries this season, but it should have enough on offense to score enough to get that sixth win. FPI sees about a field goal's worth of value with the 'dog, as well.
ATS pick: Old Dominion
Score: Middle Tennessee 40, Old Dominion 31
No. 13 Washington State Cougars at No. 17 Washington Huskies (-10)
Fallica: The Cougars have to pull the outright upset in Seattle to reach the Pac-12 title game. Washington is coming off a lethargic effort versus Utah and has no shot at getting to the Pac-12 title game, but there's a reason this number is as big as it is. UW has won four straight in the series, each coming by double digits, and Washington State has not been the same team away from home this season (although the Cougars did win in Utah in their last road game). It is surprising to see that UW ranks 13th in offensive efficiency, while the Cougs are 67th. Wazzu does have the better defense (sixth, versus Washington at 15th). It's a consolation prize, for sure, but I expect the Huskies to continue their success against their cross-state rival. FPI has Washington as a 14-point pick here.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 35, Washington State 23
UT San Antonio Roadrunners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-2)
Fallica: Yes, the Bulldogs need the win to become bowl eligible, but UTSA has ample motivation, as well. The Roadrunners aren't themselves guaranteed a bowl berth with six wins, and they would like to lock that up with a seventh win. There is also a big revenge factor, as Louisiana Tech put 63 up on UTSA last year. That hasn't been forgotten. Tech has not been its typical dominant self at home, and I like the Roadrunners to get the win to salvage a year that began with a ton of promise after a 3-0 start and a win at Baylor.
ATS pick: UT San Antonio
Score: UT San Antonio 28, Louisiana Tech 27
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's rivalry week! Our experts are back with their Week 13 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-3 Week 12 (42-51-3 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 3-2 in Week 12 (37-20-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 3-6 in Week 12 (45-41-1 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5) at No. 6 Auburn Tigers
Steele: Alabama has won five of the last six Iron Bowls, with the lone loss being the famed "kick six" game, and the five wins have come by an average of 24 points. Auburn endured one of the largest sandwich games ever last week, facing a Sun Belt team smack in the middle of two home games versus No. 1 teams as a 'dog. Despite missing two games, Tigers running back Kerryon Johnson is making a real push for the Heisman with his 1,172 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Alabama is allowing just 87 yards per game on the ground, but is down four linebackers. Plus, the Tide allowed LSU to rush for 151 yards and Mississippi State to pick up 172 on the ground. Alabama's largest advantages fall with quarterback mobility, running back depth and receiving talent. However, Auburn is one of the few teams that can stand toe-to-toe with Alabama at the line of scrimmage, and it now has the edge at linebacker. Auburn is also the healthier team and is 12-6 as a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Alabama 26, Auburn 23
Coughlin: We got another Iron Bowl with a lot at stake. So much has been made of Alabama's injuries in recent weeks, especially on defense, that some people are actually saying Auburn has the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure I agree, but I will say the matchup of Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele and 'Bama OC Brian Daboll is as good as it gets. While the Tigers completely dominated the Georgia offense a couple weeks ago, I don't think they will do the same to the Tide. Between Daboll's play calling, Jalen Hurts' talent and just the overall balance of this offense, I think the Crimson Tide will handle business Saturday. They average 270 yards on the ground and over 200 yards in the air per game, and I really liked what I saw from their passing game in the fourth quarter when they came from behind to win against Mississippi State a few weeks ago. Nick Saban and the 'Bama boys win and cover.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, Auburn 20
Fallica: Which Auburn will we see Saturday? Will we again see the offensive line which was dominated by Clemson? Maybe it will be the team that didn't commit a turnover and had just five penalties for 29 yards in a near perfect effort versus Georgia? And can Auburn run the ball with authority, considering its receivers may not get a ton of separation? The historical trends indicate that when both Alabama and Auburn are good, Auburn typically wins. But I ultimately just have to go with the team that has thrived in big games and side with the ability of Hurts to create when it all breaks down.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, Auburn 17
No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5) at No. 21 Stanford Cardinal
Steele: Notre Dame just faced the option and cut blocking of Navy, but Stanford is off the "big game." The Cardinal's biggest area of improvement is the offensive line, which allowed 34 sacks last year and just 12 this year. Notre Dame improved everywhere, though. The defense is stronger versus the run and gets more pressure on the quarterback, and the pass defense went from No. 79 to No. 34 this year. On offense, Notre Dame is averaging 290 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry. The Irish have taken on the tougher schedule and is plus-88 yards per game, while Stanford is just plus-10. While Notre Dame is playing its season finale, Stanford can win the Pac-12 if Washington defeats Washington State, and the Apple Cup is going on at the same time. Running back Bryce Love isn't 100 percent healthy, and the Cardinal is averaging 141 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry over their last four games after averaging 258 and 4.1 in their first seven contests.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 31, Stanford 23
Coughlin: I rolled the dice and took Washington State versus Stanford a couple of weeks back because I wasn't sure of the status of Love, and I am going a similar route here this Saturday in Palo Alto. I think Notre Dame comes in extra motivated with a chance to get to 10 wins, which would would probably seat them No. 1 pick among the New Year's Six bowls. I'm not sure what Stanford will do here. As Fallica pointed out on Behind The Bets, wouldn't you rather have Love closer to 100 percent for a Pac-12 title game, rather than risk that by playing him in an out-of-conference game that really doesn't mean much. I mean, I want my alma mater to beat Notre Dame more than anything when they play, but I respect whatever direction David Shaw wants to go in this game. I'll go with the notion that Love wont be a big part of the game plan, and that unfortunately makes me think there is no way the Cardinal can beat the Irish on Saturday night.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 30, Stanford 19
Friday games
South Florida Bulls at No. 15 UCF Knights (-10)
Steele: UCF benefitted from a plus-five in turnovers last week to win by 26 at Temple, scoring on "drives" of 21, minus-five and five yards after turnovers in the first half. In their last five games versus FBS foes, the Knights have allowed 210 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, South Florida's lone loss was to Houston after the Cougars took their first lead of the day with 11 seconds left following an improbably fourth-down conversion. USF was the clear-cut favorite to win the conference coming into the year, and while UCF has McKenzie Milton at quarterback, USF counters with Quinton Flowers. The winner of this game is the favorite to grab the Group of 5 bid to a New Year's Day bowl. Despite being on the road, USF is capable of the upset and is getting double digits.
ATS pick: South Florida
Score: UCF 34, South Florida 31
No. 25 Virginia Tech Hokies (-7) at Virginia Cavaliers
Coughlin: 13 games. That is how many times the Cavaliers have lost to the Hokies in a row. Virginia put the country on notice when they led undefeated Miami, 28-14, last week in the second half, only to cough away the lead and fall by two scores. The talent and coaching is there for the Wahoos to come back six days later and take down their rival. On the other side, the Hokies have not impressed me in recent weeks, struggling since they went to Hard Rock Stadium to play the Hurricanes. Tech needed to stop Pitt last week four times to end the game, as the Panthers had a first-and-goal to try and win the game. The Hokies were owned by Georgia Tech in the previous week. I'll take the home underdog here.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Virginia 23, Virginia Tech 9
Navy Midshipmen at Houston Cougars (-4.5)
Coughlin: If there is a team that can get over a tough loss, it's Navy. Last week, the Midshipmen took Notre Dame to the very end before getting stopped in the last minute of the game as they tried to tie the score. They took down Houston last year, and for those who say Navy might be looking ahead to Army, I don't buy that because they have a bye week in between these games. I just don't fear anything Houston does offensively, as they have lost to Tulsa and Tulane, scoring just 17 points against those mediocre AAC defenses. I think the road team keeps it close and covers.
ATS pick: Navy
Score: Houston 28, Navy 27
Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fallica: Nebraska's defense has struggled all year long, but what we saw offensively from the Hawkeyes versus Ohio State has been an aberration and what we've seen from them against Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State and Wisconsin has been more along the lines of who they are. So, it's not the worst matchup in the world for the Huskers' beleaguered defense this week. Iowa ran over the Huskers to the tune of 40-10 last year, but I think Nebraska rallies for a win here to cap off what has been a brutal home slate in Lincoln this year. I don't think the Cornhuskers have quit yet, as evidenced by a couple of late scores last week at Penn State. It might not be pretty, but I like the Huskers here.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 24, Iowa 17
Saturday games
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers (-3)
Steele: Both teams enter this game needing a win to get to a bowl. Indiana plays in the stronger East division of the Big 10 and drew Wisconsin out of the West, while Purdue avoided Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Indiana easily could have beaten both Michigan and Michigan State. The Hoosiers have the special teams edge at No. 52 versus No. 81, and I feel they actually also have edges on both offense and defense. Indiana is a team that is better than its record, and it'll pull the upset.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Indiana 27, Purdue 23
Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (-1.5)
Steele: Air Force was a 10-win team last year and was outgained by 88 yards in its 7-point win in last year's meeting. Utah State won just three games last year, but is much stronger this year and has already clinched bowl eligibility. The Aggies' only losses are to Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Colorado State, Boise State and Wyoming (which they gave away late). In their three Mountain West road games, they've won by 51, 24 and 14 points. Air Force was averaging 38.2 points per game, but the offense has only scored a combined 33 points the last three games, and quarterback Arion Worthman was injured last week. Utah State just faced the option two weeks ago in their 14-point win over New Mexico, and it is averaging 32 points per game since inserting Jordan Love as the starter at quarterback four weeks ago. The Aggies also have the edge on defense and special teams.
ATS pick: Utah State
Score: Utah State 35, Air Force 27
Georgia Southern Eagles at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-6.5)
Steele: Georgia Southern just played its home finale and shutout South Alabama, 52-0, for its first win of the year. The Eagles were minus-92 yards per game in Sun Belt play prior to their 388-yard edge versus the Jaguars. Louisiana still needs one win to become bowl eligible. This is the Ragin' Cajuns' home finale, and Appalachian State is on deck. Jordan Davis re-took the quarterback job for Louisiana, and running back Trey Ragas ran for 132 yards last week after missing the previous week. Louisiana has gotten its ground game going over the last three weeks, averaging 257 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. Georgia Southern has allowed five teams to rush for 240 or more yards and is allowing 5.2 yards per carry, overall. It is winless in five games on the road (1-4 ATS).
ATS pick: Louisiana
Score: Louisiana 37, Georgia Southern 23
No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (-11) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Steele: While Georgia is on its third road game in four weeks, the Bulldogs don't lose the Governor's Cup often -- they're playing with legitimate revenge and have rebounded with a win in three-straight tries after losing in the year prior. They come in on a 16-2-1 ATS run and have the SEC title game on deck, and with dimming-but-not-gone playoff hopes, they can't afford a second loss. Georgia Tech just allowed Duke to rush for 319 yards and 6.3 yards per carry, and Georgia has a deep backfield that averages 267 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Georgia Tech has taken on two playoff contenders. Despite losing to Miami by just one point, the Jackets were outgained by 200 yards. They were also dominated by Clemson, trailing by three touchdowns before a garbage-time touchdown against backups resulted in a 14-point loss.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 16
Florida Atlantic Owls (-21.5) at Charlotte 49ers
Coughlin: Here we have a team that is will play in its conference title game next week after traveling to play the worst team in its division on Saturday. My usual thinking is that team will just want to go take care of business and get a win, no matter how ugly it is. However, I throw conventional wisdom out the window with Lane Kiffin. He is going into Charlotte with the gas pedal through the floor. The Owls have scored 42 or more points in five of their last six games, and they have won seven straight in the conference. I don't see them scoring less than 55 points here. Take the big road favorite.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic
Score: Florida Atlantic 63, Charlotte 28
No. 16 Michigan State Spartans (-14) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Fallica: The three meetings for these two as Big Ten foes have been heavily influenced by site. In East Lansing, the Spartans have won 45-3 and 49-0, but in the midst of their 2015 CFP run, they had to survive a 31-24 win on the road against a 4-8 Rutgers squad. That's kind of been the deal with the Spartans this year, too. Take away the blowout loss as a huge 'dog in Columbus, and you're looking at a team that lost at Northwestern, won in Ann Arbor by four points in awful weather and won by three on the road against a 5-6 Minnesota team. Last week was a rare egg from Rutgers; sure, the Knights had been blown out by the teams that should have blown them out, but games versus Nebraska, Maryland, Purdue and Illinois all were competitive. Rutgers isn't going bowling, but a fifth win here could really give the coaching staff and players a lot to build on for 2018, knowing they are getting that much closer to a bowl berth. The Scarlet Knights may not pull the outright upset, but I'd be surprised if they were again blown out. FPI agrees, calling for an eight-point MSU win here.
ATS pick: Rutgers
Score: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 24
North Texas Mean Green (-10.5) at Rice Owls
Fallica: This game really means nothing in the grand scheme of things for North Texas, as it is locked into the Conference USA title game next week at FAU, so starters might only play part of the game. Five of North Texas' eight wins have come by one score, including four of its last five (only a blowout of winless UTEP broke that streak), so there might be a little bit of luck involved in the Mean Green's 8-3 mark. Rice has played better lately, especially on offense. It's interesting to look back and see Rice was a 6.5-point favorite last year in Denton, while the Owls are now a double-digit underdog. I expect the Owls to play well against a team that will likely be looking ahead to next week.
ATS pick: Rice
Score: North Texas 34, Rice 26
Old Dominion Monarchs at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-12)
Fallica: The Blue Raiders need a win for bowl eligibility, but ODU has played better of late, winning three straight. Middle Tennessee has really been picked apart by injuries this season, but it should have enough on offense to score enough to get that sixth win. FPI sees about a field goal's worth of value with the 'dog, as well.
ATS pick: Old Dominion
Score: Middle Tennessee 40, Old Dominion 31
No. 13 Washington State Cougars at No. 17 Washington Huskies (-10)
Fallica: The Cougars have to pull the outright upset in Seattle to reach the Pac-12 title game. Washington is coming off a lethargic effort versus Utah and has no shot at getting to the Pac-12 title game, but there's a reason this number is as big as it is. UW has won four straight in the series, each coming by double digits, and Washington State has not been the same team away from home this season (although the Cougars did win in Utah in their last road game). It is surprising to see that UW ranks 13th in offensive efficiency, while the Cougs are 67th. Wazzu does have the better defense (sixth, versus Washington at 15th). It's a consolation prize, for sure, but I expect the Huskies to continue their success against their cross-state rival. FPI has Washington as a 14-point pick here.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 35, Washington State 23
UT San Antonio Roadrunners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-2)
Fallica: Yes, the Bulldogs need the win to become bowl eligible, but UTSA has ample motivation, as well. The Roadrunners aren't themselves guaranteed a bowl berth with six wins, and they would like to lock that up with a seventh win. There is also a big revenge factor, as Louisiana Tech put 63 up on UTSA last year. That hasn't been forgotten. Tech has not been its typical dominant self at home, and I like the Roadrunners to get the win to salvage a year that began with a ton of promise after a 3-0 start and a win at Baylor.
ATS pick: UT San Antonio
Score: UT San Antonio 28, Louisiana Tech 27
