CFB betting look: Previewing conference title games
Will Harris
ESPN INSDER
Nine of the 10 FBS conferences now have championship games, with all but the Big 12 pitting division winners against each other, and the Sun Belt will follow suit in 2018. Of this year's nine games, seven are rematches, with the fresh matchups taking place in the Big Ten and ACC. The championship game favorite won and covered in six of the seven earlier meetings, with the exception being last week's Fresno State-Boise State oddity, and of those six, all but Auburn did so as chalk the first time around. Of the 18 title game participants, only four (Ohio State, Stanford, Miami and USC) enter with losing ATS records. Fresno State boasts the best mark at 9-2-1, while USC owns the worst at 3-8-1.
USC Trojans (-3, 57.5) vs. Stanford Cardinal
Pac-12 championship -- Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
The Pac-12 added Utah, Colorado and a two-division format with a title game for the 2011 season. The first three games were held on campus, with the home favorite winning outright, but the road 'dog got the money each time. The past three games were in Santa Clara, and the favorite has covered by more than two touchdowns each time. The North champ has won all six, with three going over and three under the total.
USC and Stanford met in Week 2 with the Trojans claiming a 42-24 decision as home favorites in a game in which Stanford saw big public action, dropping the price from around seven to as low as four at closing. Prior to that, Stanford had won eight of eleven over USC, including three straight by double digits.
The Trojans finally got a break last week after a 12-week regular season with no open date. They'll be fresh, and while the opponent was not known until Saturday, USC comes in with two weeks to mentally prepare. Stanford arrived here in a more adventurous fashion. Since their last open date, the Cardinal have needed last-second heroics to get past the worst team in the league, made a change at quarterback, lost control of the North division race after a tight defeat at Washington State and closed the season with three straight fourth-quarter wins over Washington, Cal and Notre Dame -- all at home and often with star tailback Bryce Love at less than 100 percent. Those experiences have made this a better team than the one USC saw in September, but certainly not a fresher or healthier one. The setup could favor a rested Trojans team ready to play fast and physical, though the time off could also produce some early rust. The Trojans may gash Stanford with their speed as they did in the earlier matchup and as Notre Dame did at times to Stanford. However, Stanford just played another team whose bugaboo was ball security at the quarterback position, and the defense capitalized. USC will probably win if the offense finishes drives, but USC backers have to ask themselves if they trust turnover-prone Sam Darnold in this spot.
UCF Knights (-7, 85.5) vs. Memphis Tigers
American Athletic Conference championship -- Spectrum Stadium, Orlando
The American is the youngest FBS league and the newest to the conference title game scene. Temple was the underdog in both previous games, losing to Houston 24-13 as a five-point underdog, then beating Navy 34-10 as a two-point 'dog, and unders have cashed in both games. This is the first FBS conference championship game ever with a total in the eighties.
These teams have played ten times as leaguemates since UCF joined Conference USA in 2005. The Knights have been favored in all but one meeting, and have won all ten, only once by less than a touchdown and three times by fewer than 17 points.
This is the third time Memphis has made this trip. The Tigers had landed in Orlando for the scheduled September 9 meeting before learning that it would be canceled due to Hurricane Irma. They returned September 30, catching five points instead of three this time, and lost 40-13. It would be the only loss of the season for the Tigers, who have scored fewer than 37 points just one other time all year.
Memphis had put in a lot of prep for this opponent by the time they landed in Orlando for the second time, and the staff had billed it as a very important game. There was a great deal invested in that contest, and the Tigers were naturally disappointed in the poor showing. The distractions of the coaching carousel and the Knights coming off a more emotionally demanding game are reasons for pause, but the main caveat for UCF backers should be a red-hot and locked-in Memphis team that's getting a third chance at a happy flight home from Orlando in a matchup for which both teams are overprepared.
Toledo Rockets (-20, 56) vs. Akron Zips
MAC championship -- Ford Field, Detroit
Underdogs are 12-8 in the MAC title game, and big underdogs -- of which this game has seen its share -- have fared even better. This is the ninth time the favorite has laid at least 12 points, and the heavy chalk is just 1-7 ATS and 5-3 straight up. Unders have outpaced overs overall by a count of 11-9.
Toledo beat Akron 48-21 in Week 8 as 15-point home favorites. The Rockets have won eight and covered seven of the past ten meetings. Akron last won its division in 2005, while Toledo last did so in 2004. Both won the MAC championship game that year.
Toledo is among the most consistent MAC powers, but an inability to beat division-rival Northern Illinois sent the Huskies instead of the Rockets to the MAC title game for six straight years before Western Michigan claimed the crown last year. With a 10-2 record, an explosive offense and six covers in seven games, it's easy to see why the Rockets are an even bigger favorite this time around over an Akron squad that's been outgained by almost 1,500 yards in FBS play this season and is now starting a freshman quarterback. Still, it's hard to justify this kind of weight when both the favorite and underdog are navigating uncharted waters in the title game.
Florida Atlantic Owls (-10.5, 74.5) vs. North Texas Mean Green
Conference USA championship -- FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
In 12 previous games, favorites and dogs, as well as overs and unders, are evenly split at 6-6. It's the first title game appearance for either of these teams.
The Owls were off an open date heading into the Week 8 matchup with North Texas, while the Mean Green was banged up and coming off a thrilling 29-26 win over then-division leader UTSA, clinched on a 22-yard touchdown pass with just 10 seconds left. That FAU-UNT matchup brought the worst preparation of the year for North Texas, as the Mean Green were shellacked to the tune of 69-31 after the Owls led 41-7 at the half. Florida Atlantic backers should keep that context in mind and not delude themselves into thinking that FAU is anywhere near 38 points better than North Texas when everybody's A-game is on display.
Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 62.5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Big 12 championship -- AT&T Stadium, Arlington
The Big 12 resumes a title game that was played between its division winners from 1996 to 2010. Favorites were 8-7 during that span, as were unders. Oklahoma appeared in eight of those games, all as chalk, and the Sooners won championships on all but one occasion.
TCU only won one of its five Big 12 meetings with Oklahoma prior to this season, but all five were decided by a touchdown or less. This year's 38-20 Sooners victory saw the Frogs a little too jacked up for the game and unable to handle the emotion, chippiness and the talent of the host. Even so, Oklahoma didn't score in the second half, and if anybody can silence Baker Mayfield, it's probably this defense. We're not in the business of laying Gary Patterson points, let alone with a second chance to boot.
Auburn Tigers (-3, 49) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
SEC championship -- Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
After a quarter century of college football's oldest conference championship game, favorites and 'dogs are deadlocked at 12-12-1 against the number. In the spirit of the SEC's reputation as a defensive league, the under has cashed in 16 of the 25, including the past eight.
The Auburn-Georgia series is an annual affair, and prior to Auburn's 40-17 win back in Week 11, the Bulldogs had won and covered in three straight and five of six. Each team has made five SEC championship game appearances as a division champ, with Auburn winning three titles to Georgia's two in the league's two-division era. However, the schools have never met each other in this game.
That Week 11 loss was Georgia's worst performance of the season independent of opponent for a variety of reasons, not least of which was a disjointed practice schedule that saw the Bulldogs in and out of their indoor facility all week due to inconsistent weather. But there's an even bigger caveat for Auburn backers, and that's the Tigers' monster win in the Iron Bowl last week. Lots of teams have to get back up to play their conference championship game after an emotional rivalry week win. Gus Malzahn's charges did it once before, downing Missouri seven days after beating Alabama on the historic kick-six back in 2013. Still, this Iron Bowl was different, and so was the celebratory aftermath. This was Auburn fulfilling its hopes, rather than exceeding them. We've never seen Auburn Nation in quite this state before, and it will be very tough for this team to gather itself in time to play its best again this week. Less than that would have sufficed against the team Georgia fielded in Week 11, but it may not be enough against the Dawgs that Auburn will see this week, especially given the Tigers' dire health issues at running back.
Clemson Tigers (-9.5, 47.5) vs. Miami Hurricanes
ACC championship -- Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
The ACC formed divisions in 2005, and favorites and underdogs have split the 12 games since, while overs have gone 7-5. Clemson has won three titles in four appearances, and the Atlantic division has taken six in a row, with three coming from each the Tigers and Florida State. This is Miami's first division crown. The last meeting between the Tigers and Hurricanes was the 58-0 Clemson win that ended the Al Golden era midseason in 2015.
It would seem a tall task for Miami to recapture its mojo in a week's time after a 24-7 humbling at Pitt. We'll be watching closely to see how the Canes respond this week. Dabo Swinney has been bragging about his team's focus the past few weeks, and that playoff mentality showed as the Tigers were more composed than their head coach in an emotional road game against a chippy underdog. If Clemson maintains its recent mentality through another week of preparation, it will be hard to get interested in the underdog here.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-6, 53) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Big Ten championship -- Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
The Big Ten title game was played three times between the Legends and Leaders winners, then three more between the East and West since the league added Rutgers and Maryland. The East has won all three with three different champions. The underdog and the over have cashed in every game except Michigan State's 2015 win over Iowa, a 16-13 push as the three-point chalk that went under the total.
Ohio State is having flashbacks to 2014, when an injury to J.T. Barrett forced Cardale Jones into the lineup. He promptly led a 59-0 rout of Gary Andersen and Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, then piloted wins over Alabama and Oregon to claim the Buckeyes' first national title since 2002.
Those thinking Wisconsin is ready for the national stage have to acknowledge that the schedule hasn't really left this team battle-tested. The Badgers were fortunate to catch Northwestern early in the season and Iowa a week after one of the biggest wins in program history. They were also trailing Michigan in the second half, but they knocked quarterback Brandon Peters out of the game and took control after that. We could be into the favorite here if not for the drama surrounding both Barrett and Greg Schiano. Ohio State puts so much into the Michigan series that a post-Wolverines hangover is always a potential issue, and that's before you throw in the new distractions. A locked-in Ohio State with a healthy Barrett can deliver the goods as chalk here, but it remains to be seen if that's what we're going to get.
Boise State Broncos (-9.5, 49) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Mountain West championship -- Albertson's Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Mountain West expanded to 12 teams in 2013, adding a title game at an on-campus site. Three of the first four games have gone under the total, and the underdog has notched three covers.
Boise State and Fresno State first met in 1977 and have played for the Milk Can Trophy since 2006. Prior to last week, the teams hadn't met since the 2014 Mountain West title game, won by the Broncos, 28-14, at home as 24-point chalk. Boise State had beaten the Bulldogs earlier that year, as well.
Last week's prematch marked the first time that two teams met in the final week with a date and venue for a rematch in the following week's conference title game already set. It was a unique circumstance for both coaching staffs, but Fresno State was the only team that came to play in a 28-17 win. The Bulldogs thoroughly outhit and outhustled a Boise team that looked like it was treating the game as a scrimmage. That approach could pay off for the Broncos, who are pretty much guaranteed to execute better and play with more passion than they did in last week's lackluster showing. But it could also backfire on the longtime regional power accustomed to the advantage of an intimidating mystique, as an upstart underdog that had beaten Boise just once since 2005 is now suddenly brimming with confidence.
Will Harris
ESPN INSDER
Nine of the 10 FBS conferences now have championship games, with all but the Big 12 pitting division winners against each other, and the Sun Belt will follow suit in 2018. Of this year's nine games, seven are rematches, with the fresh matchups taking place in the Big Ten and ACC. The championship game favorite won and covered in six of the seven earlier meetings, with the exception being last week's Fresno State-Boise State oddity, and of those six, all but Auburn did so as chalk the first time around. Of the 18 title game participants, only four (Ohio State, Stanford, Miami and USC) enter with losing ATS records. Fresno State boasts the best mark at 9-2-1, while USC owns the worst at 3-8-1.
USC Trojans (-3, 57.5) vs. Stanford Cardinal
Pac-12 championship -- Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
The Pac-12 added Utah, Colorado and a two-division format with a title game for the 2011 season. The first three games were held on campus, with the home favorite winning outright, but the road 'dog got the money each time. The past three games were in Santa Clara, and the favorite has covered by more than two touchdowns each time. The North champ has won all six, with three going over and three under the total.
USC and Stanford met in Week 2 with the Trojans claiming a 42-24 decision as home favorites in a game in which Stanford saw big public action, dropping the price from around seven to as low as four at closing. Prior to that, Stanford had won eight of eleven over USC, including three straight by double digits.
The Trojans finally got a break last week after a 12-week regular season with no open date. They'll be fresh, and while the opponent was not known until Saturday, USC comes in with two weeks to mentally prepare. Stanford arrived here in a more adventurous fashion. Since their last open date, the Cardinal have needed last-second heroics to get past the worst team in the league, made a change at quarterback, lost control of the North division race after a tight defeat at Washington State and closed the season with three straight fourth-quarter wins over Washington, Cal and Notre Dame -- all at home and often with star tailback Bryce Love at less than 100 percent. Those experiences have made this a better team than the one USC saw in September, but certainly not a fresher or healthier one. The setup could favor a rested Trojans team ready to play fast and physical, though the time off could also produce some early rust. The Trojans may gash Stanford with their speed as they did in the earlier matchup and as Notre Dame did at times to Stanford. However, Stanford just played another team whose bugaboo was ball security at the quarterback position, and the defense capitalized. USC will probably win if the offense finishes drives, but USC backers have to ask themselves if they trust turnover-prone Sam Darnold in this spot.
UCF Knights (-7, 85.5) vs. Memphis Tigers
American Athletic Conference championship -- Spectrum Stadium, Orlando
The American is the youngest FBS league and the newest to the conference title game scene. Temple was the underdog in both previous games, losing to Houston 24-13 as a five-point underdog, then beating Navy 34-10 as a two-point 'dog, and unders have cashed in both games. This is the first FBS conference championship game ever with a total in the eighties.
These teams have played ten times as leaguemates since UCF joined Conference USA in 2005. The Knights have been favored in all but one meeting, and have won all ten, only once by less than a touchdown and three times by fewer than 17 points.
This is the third time Memphis has made this trip. The Tigers had landed in Orlando for the scheduled September 9 meeting before learning that it would be canceled due to Hurricane Irma. They returned September 30, catching five points instead of three this time, and lost 40-13. It would be the only loss of the season for the Tigers, who have scored fewer than 37 points just one other time all year.
Memphis had put in a lot of prep for this opponent by the time they landed in Orlando for the second time, and the staff had billed it as a very important game. There was a great deal invested in that contest, and the Tigers were naturally disappointed in the poor showing. The distractions of the coaching carousel and the Knights coming off a more emotionally demanding game are reasons for pause, but the main caveat for UCF backers should be a red-hot and locked-in Memphis team that's getting a third chance at a happy flight home from Orlando in a matchup for which both teams are overprepared.
Toledo Rockets (-20, 56) vs. Akron Zips
MAC championship -- Ford Field, Detroit
Underdogs are 12-8 in the MAC title game, and big underdogs -- of which this game has seen its share -- have fared even better. This is the ninth time the favorite has laid at least 12 points, and the heavy chalk is just 1-7 ATS and 5-3 straight up. Unders have outpaced overs overall by a count of 11-9.
Toledo beat Akron 48-21 in Week 8 as 15-point home favorites. The Rockets have won eight and covered seven of the past ten meetings. Akron last won its division in 2005, while Toledo last did so in 2004. Both won the MAC championship game that year.
Toledo is among the most consistent MAC powers, but an inability to beat division-rival Northern Illinois sent the Huskies instead of the Rockets to the MAC title game for six straight years before Western Michigan claimed the crown last year. With a 10-2 record, an explosive offense and six covers in seven games, it's easy to see why the Rockets are an even bigger favorite this time around over an Akron squad that's been outgained by almost 1,500 yards in FBS play this season and is now starting a freshman quarterback. Still, it's hard to justify this kind of weight when both the favorite and underdog are navigating uncharted waters in the title game.
Florida Atlantic Owls (-10.5, 74.5) vs. North Texas Mean Green
Conference USA championship -- FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
In 12 previous games, favorites and dogs, as well as overs and unders, are evenly split at 6-6. It's the first title game appearance for either of these teams.
The Owls were off an open date heading into the Week 8 matchup with North Texas, while the Mean Green was banged up and coming off a thrilling 29-26 win over then-division leader UTSA, clinched on a 22-yard touchdown pass with just 10 seconds left. That FAU-UNT matchup brought the worst preparation of the year for North Texas, as the Mean Green were shellacked to the tune of 69-31 after the Owls led 41-7 at the half. Florida Atlantic backers should keep that context in mind and not delude themselves into thinking that FAU is anywhere near 38 points better than North Texas when everybody's A-game is on display.
Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 62.5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Big 12 championship -- AT&T Stadium, Arlington
The Big 12 resumes a title game that was played between its division winners from 1996 to 2010. Favorites were 8-7 during that span, as were unders. Oklahoma appeared in eight of those games, all as chalk, and the Sooners won championships on all but one occasion.
TCU only won one of its five Big 12 meetings with Oklahoma prior to this season, but all five were decided by a touchdown or less. This year's 38-20 Sooners victory saw the Frogs a little too jacked up for the game and unable to handle the emotion, chippiness and the talent of the host. Even so, Oklahoma didn't score in the second half, and if anybody can silence Baker Mayfield, it's probably this defense. We're not in the business of laying Gary Patterson points, let alone with a second chance to boot.
Auburn Tigers (-3, 49) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
SEC championship -- Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
After a quarter century of college football's oldest conference championship game, favorites and 'dogs are deadlocked at 12-12-1 against the number. In the spirit of the SEC's reputation as a defensive league, the under has cashed in 16 of the 25, including the past eight.
The Auburn-Georgia series is an annual affair, and prior to Auburn's 40-17 win back in Week 11, the Bulldogs had won and covered in three straight and five of six. Each team has made five SEC championship game appearances as a division champ, with Auburn winning three titles to Georgia's two in the league's two-division era. However, the schools have never met each other in this game.
That Week 11 loss was Georgia's worst performance of the season independent of opponent for a variety of reasons, not least of which was a disjointed practice schedule that saw the Bulldogs in and out of their indoor facility all week due to inconsistent weather. But there's an even bigger caveat for Auburn backers, and that's the Tigers' monster win in the Iron Bowl last week. Lots of teams have to get back up to play their conference championship game after an emotional rivalry week win. Gus Malzahn's charges did it once before, downing Missouri seven days after beating Alabama on the historic kick-six back in 2013. Still, this Iron Bowl was different, and so was the celebratory aftermath. This was Auburn fulfilling its hopes, rather than exceeding them. We've never seen Auburn Nation in quite this state before, and it will be very tough for this team to gather itself in time to play its best again this week. Less than that would have sufficed against the team Georgia fielded in Week 11, but it may not be enough against the Dawgs that Auburn will see this week, especially given the Tigers' dire health issues at running back.
Clemson Tigers (-9.5, 47.5) vs. Miami Hurricanes
ACC championship -- Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
The ACC formed divisions in 2005, and favorites and underdogs have split the 12 games since, while overs have gone 7-5. Clemson has won three titles in four appearances, and the Atlantic division has taken six in a row, with three coming from each the Tigers and Florida State. This is Miami's first division crown. The last meeting between the Tigers and Hurricanes was the 58-0 Clemson win that ended the Al Golden era midseason in 2015.
It would seem a tall task for Miami to recapture its mojo in a week's time after a 24-7 humbling at Pitt. We'll be watching closely to see how the Canes respond this week. Dabo Swinney has been bragging about his team's focus the past few weeks, and that playoff mentality showed as the Tigers were more composed than their head coach in an emotional road game against a chippy underdog. If Clemson maintains its recent mentality through another week of preparation, it will be hard to get interested in the underdog here.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-6, 53) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Big Ten championship -- Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
The Big Ten title game was played three times between the Legends and Leaders winners, then three more between the East and West since the league added Rutgers and Maryland. The East has won all three with three different champions. The underdog and the over have cashed in every game except Michigan State's 2015 win over Iowa, a 16-13 push as the three-point chalk that went under the total.
Ohio State is having flashbacks to 2014, when an injury to J.T. Barrett forced Cardale Jones into the lineup. He promptly led a 59-0 rout of Gary Andersen and Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, then piloted wins over Alabama and Oregon to claim the Buckeyes' first national title since 2002.
Those thinking Wisconsin is ready for the national stage have to acknowledge that the schedule hasn't really left this team battle-tested. The Badgers were fortunate to catch Northwestern early in the season and Iowa a week after one of the biggest wins in program history. They were also trailing Michigan in the second half, but they knocked quarterback Brandon Peters out of the game and took control after that. We could be into the favorite here if not for the drama surrounding both Barrett and Greg Schiano. Ohio State puts so much into the Michigan series that a post-Wolverines hangover is always a potential issue, and that's before you throw in the new distractions. A locked-in Ohio State with a healthy Barrett can deliver the goods as chalk here, but it remains to be seen if that's what we're going to get.
Boise State Broncos (-9.5, 49) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Mountain West championship -- Albertson's Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Mountain West expanded to 12 teams in 2013, adding a title game at an on-campus site. Three of the first four games have gone under the total, and the underdog has notched three covers.
Boise State and Fresno State first met in 1977 and have played for the Milk Can Trophy since 2006. Prior to last week, the teams hadn't met since the 2014 Mountain West title game, won by the Broncos, 28-14, at home as 24-point chalk. Boise State had beaten the Bulldogs earlier that year, as well.
Last week's prematch marked the first time that two teams met in the final week with a date and venue for a rematch in the following week's conference title game already set. It was a unique circumstance for both coaching staffs, but Fresno State was the only team that came to play in a 28-17 win. The Bulldogs thoroughly outhit and outhustled a Boise team that looked like it was treating the game as a scrimmage. That approach could pay off for the Broncos, who are pretty much guaranteed to execute better and play with more passion than they did in last week's lackluster showing. But it could also backfire on the longtime regional power accustomed to the advantage of an intimidating mystique, as an upstart underdog that had beaten Boise just once since 2005 is now suddenly brimming with confidence.
