The seventh week of the NBA season tipped off Sunday with favorites going 2-1 on the hardwood but it was the underdogs that posted a 3-0 record against the spread. Brooklyn was the lone ‘dog to win outright as it knocked off Memphis 98-88 on the road.
The setback was the eighth straight for the short-handed Grizzlies and it was also the last game for Memphis head coach David Fizdale. The team relieved him of his services on Monday after a 7-12 start and some pundits felt the termination was a little abrupt. If you ask gamblers, the Grizz were a league-worst 6-13 ATS and that’s not good enough in our industry.
Favorites went 5-3 SU on Monday but the points mattered again with underdogs managing to cover in two of the losses for a 5-3 ATS mark. The Cavaliers (+2) wire-to-wire 113-91 road victory over the 76ers was a wake-up call for folks hopping on ‘The Process’ and even though the Warriors were without Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, you can’t dismiss Sacramento’s 110-106 road win over Golden State as a 12-point underdog (ML +700).
We have five games on Tuesday and below is my quick handicap.
Miami (10-9 SU, 7-10-2 ATS) at Cleveland (13-7 SU, 7-12-1 ATS)
The first matchup on the board could be the most intriguing as a pair of surging teams meet on NBATV at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Heat have won three straight and four of their last five games while Cleveland enters this game with an eight-game winning streak. The Cavaliers only opened as 3 ½-point favorites and that tells you what the oddsmakers think of their recent run and it should be noted that they’re just 4-4 ATS in those games.
Cleveland is also playing on no rest after beating Philadelphia last night and the Cavaliers have gone 0-3 both SU and ATS in that role this season. The offense has only averaged 98.3 points per game in those contests and that’s led to a 3-0 ‘under’ mark. I note that because Miami’s defense (98.8 PPG) is ranked third in scoring on the road and it’s won five of its last six as a visitor.
The Heat took three of four against the Cavaliers last season but LeBron James sat out two of the setbacks and when he suited up at home, they won by 30 points as 12-point favorites. Even if he plays tonight, it could be tough backing Cleveland knowing how poor it’s been at home for bettors (6-4 SU, 0-9-1 ATS). The Heat, surprisingly, have been a smarter investment on the road (6-4 ATS) than at home (1-6-2 ATS).
Washington (10-9 SU, 9-10 ATS) at Minnesota (12-8 SU, 8-10-2 ATS)
No overnight line was posted on this non-conference tilt due to injuries. Point guard John Wall (knee) is expected to miss two weeks for the Wizards while Timberwolves PG Jeff Teague (Achilles) has been tabbed ‘questionable’ for this game.
Washington has dropped four of its last five games, which includes last Saturday’s 108-105 home collapse to Portland as it was outscored 35-22 in the fourth quarter. Minnesota has gone 2-3 SU over its last five and it has burned bettors with a 0-4-1 ATS mark during this span. Last Wednesday’s 124-118 home win against Orlando was a tough beat if you had the Wolves (-7) considering they were outscored 38-18 by the Magic in the fourth quarter.
I would expect the T-Wolves to win this game but I’m hesitant to back them as favorites knowing they’ve gone 3-6 against teams above .500 and their record versus the Eastern Conference (3-5 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) is far from good.
Phoenix (7-14 SU, 8-12-1 ATS) at Chicago (3-15 SU, 8-9-1 ATS)
This matchup pits two teams headed to next year’s NBA Lottery and it’s hard to make a case for either squad. Chicago enters this game with the worst record in the league and Phoenix isn’t much better. No overnight number was posted due to the status of Suns shooting guard Devin Booker, who remains ‘questionable’ with a toe injury. If Booker doesn’t play, Chicago might close as the favorite and that would be just the second time (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) in that role this season. The Bulls have only played seven games at the United Center and they’ve gone 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Suns are 3-5 SU and 4-3-1 ATS on the road. The pair just recently played on Nov. 19 in the desert and Phoenix earned a 113-105 decision over Chicago as a 2 ½-point favorite. The ‘over’ (215 ½) barely connected and three of the last four in this series have gone to the high side.
Betting the total on this game isn’t an easy handicap. Phoenix (115.9 PPG) has the worst scoring defense in the league and that’s helped them produce the best ‘over’ (13-
mark. However, Chicago has been a solid ‘under’ lean (11-7) especially at home (6-1).
Milwaukee (9-9 SU, 7-9-2 ATS) at Sacramento (6-14 SU, 8-10-2 ATS)
I’m not surprised the Bucks are favorites in this spot but the opener (-7) seems a little healthy for a team that’s 4-5 as a visitor this season and that includes a 2-2 record both SU and ATS when laying points. I doubt Bucks coach Jason Kidd looks at ATS numbers, but last season his team was a solid look (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) as road favorites.
Milwaukee is clearly deeper and more talented than Sacramento, but the Kings have been respectable at home (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS) and they could have an extra bounce in their step after last night’s upset over Golden State. However, Sacramento is 0-3 (0-2-1 ATS) on no rest this season and it’s just 1-4 (2-2-1 ATS) after a win. Another glaring stat that makes me lean Milwaukee is based off Sacramento’s record vs. the East, which sits 1-7 and the seven losses came by an eye-opening margin of 24.5 PPG.
This series has been a stalemate the last three seasons with the two teams going 3-3 against one another and both teams have notched 2-1 records on the road during this span while the ‘over’ has gone 6-0.
Denver (11-8 SU, 8-11 ATS) at Utah (9-11 SU, 10-10 ATS)
These teams met in their season opener on Oct. 18 and Utah captured a 106-96 win over Denver as a 2 ½-point home favorite. The Nuggets were in complete control of this game but they ran out of gas late and were outscored by 19 points in the second-half. That’s been the theme in this series with Denver dropping its last six visits to the Jazz from Salt Lake City.
The line (Jazz -1 ½) is in the same neighborhood tonight and you can make an argument both ways. Despite not having center Rudy Gobert, the Jazz have played a tad faster and that’s led to a 3-1 mark over their last four games. Playing at that pace would seem to favor Denver but it’s hard to get a read on Mike Malone’s team. They’ve been off since last Friday when they beat the struggling Grizzlies 104-92 at home but the Nuggets are 0-3 both SU and ATS in their last three games off victories. Plus the home and away numbers for Utah (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) and Denver (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS) are tough to ignore. However, that opening line makes me lean to the visitor tonight.
Despite watching the ‘under’ go 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the pair I would give the ‘over’ (206 ½) a good look as well. This is the highest total posted in this series since 2012 and the oddsmakers are starting to adjust to Utah’s revamped style. The Jazz have picked up the pace with Gobert out and they’re taking a lot more 3-pointers as well. Denver’s defense (110.2) hasn’t been great on the road and I would expect both teams to get over the century mark tonight. ESPN will provide national coverage of this game at 10:05 p.m. ET.
