Thursday 11/30/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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Home side won last six LA-Washington games; Kings were outscored 12-1 in losing their last three games in this building. Over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Los Angeles won its last two games 4-1/2-1; they’re 7-4 on the road. Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine games. Capitals won its last three games, outscoring foes 12-5; they won five of last six home games. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.


Montreal won four of its last six games with Detroit; they’re 2-3 in last five visits to Motor City. Last four series games stayed under the total. Canadiens won 3-0/3-1 in their last two games; they’re 4-8 on road. Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Red Wings lost their last five games, three of them in OT; they lost their last four home games. Four of their last six home games went over total.

Home side won last five Canuck-Predator games; Vancouver lost their last three games in Music City- two of them were in OT/SO. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games played here. Canucks lost their last three games, all on road; six of their last seven games went over the total. Nashville won eight of its last ten games overall, six in row at home; three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Las Vegas won five of tis last six games, winning last three road games. Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Minnesota lost four of its last six games; they’ve won three of last four at home. Four of last five Minnesota games went over the total.

Chicago won its last five games with Dallas; six of last nine series games wen over the total. Dallas Stars were outscored 10-6 in losing their last three trips to the Windy City. Dallas won four of its last five games, but lost four of last five on road. Three of their last four games stayed under total. Blackhawks won four of their last six games, but split last four at home. Four of their last five games stayed under total.

Flames won five of last six games with Arizona; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Coyotes won three of last five games in the Saddledome. Arizona lost three of last four games overall, but won three of last four on road. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Calgary lost three of its last four games; they split last four home games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Toronto won eight of last ten games with Edmonton; they won three of last five visits here. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Maple Leafs lost three of last five games; they’re 3-2 in their last five road games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Edmonton won three of its last four games; they’re 5-7 at home. Four of their last six games went over the total.
 

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NHL Long Sheet

LOS ANGELES (14-8-0-3, 31 pts.) at WASHINGTON (14-10-0-1, 29 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 192-232 ATS (-76.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 93-63 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 11-3 ATS (+7.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 182-216 ATS (-82.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)


MONTREAL (11-12-0-3, 25 pts.) at DETROIT (10-10-0-5, 25 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-4 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

VANCOUVER (11-10-0-4, 26 pts.) at NASHVILLE (15-6-0-3, 33 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 12-1 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games in November games over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 195-213 ATS (+472.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 19-24 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 16-26 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 4-2 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 4-2-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)

VEGAS (15-7-0-1, 31 pts.) at MINNESOTA (11-10-0-3, 25 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 15-8 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 15-8 ATS (+25.6 Units) first half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DALLAS (13-10-0-1, 27 pts.) at CHICAGO (12-9-0-3, 27 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 9-22 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-17.8 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 435-429 ATS (-63.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-4 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-4-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

ARIZONA (6-17-0-4, 16 pts.) at CALGARY (13-10-0-1, 27 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 6-21 ATS (+35.4 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 6-21 ATS (+35.4 Units) first half of the season this season.
ARIZONA is 31-94 ATS (+189.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
CALGARY is 36-28 ATS (+66.6 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-8 ATS (+27.9 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 5-5 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-5-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.1 Units)

TORONTO (16-9-0-1, 33 pts.) at EDMONTON (10-13-0-2, 22 pts.) - 11/30/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 364-388 ATS (-113.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
EDMONTON is 10-15 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
EDMONTON is 45-66 ATS (-38.6 Units) in home games in November games since 1996.
EDMONTON is 10-15 ATS (-9.2 Units) first half of the season this season.
EDMONTON is 1-5 ATS (-6.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)
 

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NHL Trend Sheet

LOS ANGELES @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 9 games
Los Angeles is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Washington
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games at home

MONTREAL @ DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Montreal

LAS VEGAS @ MINNESOTA
Las Vegas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

VANCOUVER @ NASHVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games
Vancouver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nashville
Nashville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

DALLAS @ CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Dallas's last 19 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

ARIZONA @ CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arizona's last 13 games
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

TORONTO @ EDMONTON
Toronto is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Edmonton's last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games at home
 

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Toronto @ Edmonton

Play ON – A favorite against the money line (TORONTO) off a road win, a good team (60% to 70%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) in the first half of the season
40-8 over the last 5 seasons (83.3% l 29.2 units)
3-1 this year (75% l 1.9 units)

Dallas @ Chicago
Play ON – Road underdogs against the money line (DALLAS) vs. division opponents, off a road win where they shut out their opponents.
57-43 since 1997 (57% l 44.0 units)
1-0 this year (100.0% l 1.3 units)

Los Angeles @ Washington
Play AGAINST – Road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after allowing 1 goal or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games.
108-40 since 1997 (73% l 51.5 units)
3-0 this year (100% l 3.0 units)
 

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[FONT=&quot]VEGAS @(8) MINNESOTA[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Play OVER MINNESOTA on the total in Home games after a division game.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The record is 16 Overs and 4 Unders for the last two seasons (+12.7 units)
Rating: 2.78[/FONT]
 

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Projected Starting Goalies:

1 Los Angeles Kings +115 Over 5½ +120 *Quick: 11-8-1, 2.28, 0.929 (7-2-0, 2.39, .915)
2 Washington Capitals -135 Under 5½ -140 Holtby: 13-5-0, 2.59, 0.921 (1-1-1, 2.33, .920)

3 Montreal Canadiens +110 Over 5½ +110 Price: 6-7-1, 3.08, 0.902 (10-4-1, 1.98, .931)
4 Detroit Red Wings -130 Under 5½ -130 *Howard: 8-7-4, 2.57, 0.921 (4-6-2, 3.02, .893)

5 Vancouver Canucks +155 Over 5½ +110 Nilsson: 5-2-1, 2.63, 0.924 (1st start vs. Nash)
6 Nashville Predators -175 Under 5½ -130 Rinne: 14-3-2, 2.29, 0.928 (11-9-2, 2.44, .917)

7 Vegas Golden Knights +140 Over 5½ -105 Subban: 4-1-0, 2.09, 0.928 (0-1-0, 5.88, .813)
8 Minnesota Wild -160 Under 5½ -115 *Dubnyk: 9-7-2, 2.85, 0.911 (1st start vs. LV)

9 Dallas Stars +125 Over 5½ -110 Bishop: 11-7-0, 2.61, 0.912 (4-1-1, 2.45, .924)
10 Chicago Blackhawks -145 Under 5½ -110 Crawford: 11-7-1, 2.21, 0.933 (15-10-0, 2.84, .902)

11 Arizona Coyotes +165 Over 6 +105 Wedgewood: 2-3-2, 2.99, 0.901 (1st start vs. Calg)
12 Calgary Flames -190 Under 6 -125 Smith: 11-8-1, 2.67, 0.921 (3-2-0, 2.58, .908)

13 Toronto Maple Leafs -120 Over 6 -105 Andersen: 14-7-1, 2.71, 0.919 (8-0-1, 1.99, .927)
14 Edmonton Oilers +100 Under 6 -115 Brossoit: 0-3-1, 3.31, 0.881 (1st start vs. Tor)
 

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NHL Situational Betting:

Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings – An Original Six home-and-home kicks off Thursday night with the Habs in Motown. Detroit will follow Montreal back for Saturday’s game at the Bell Centre. This seems like a throwaway game for Montreal. Coming off of a geographic rivalry game against Ottawa, it is tough to see the Habs being up for this one just to return home and play the same team a couple nights later. Detroit isn’t a powerhouse by any means, so this will be a very reasonable number and it seems reasonable to take the Red Wings.

Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals – With each passing day, the Capitals get closer to being healthy. They’ll have four days off before the Kings come to town. Los Angeles has been an analytics darling this season, so the Kings have been pumped up a bit in the betting markets. On the other hand, the markets are down on the Capitals. I think this line, and its movement, will surprise some people. I’d be inclined to play the Kings here. Four days off isn’t always a good thing for a team. Players want to play. Practice is boring. The Kings aren’t in a terrible spot. They’ll fly in from Detroit the day before. They do play a conference game in St. Louis the next night, but a game against Alex Ovechkin always sparks some intensity. I’d look to back the Kings here.

Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames – The Coyotes are really, really awful. Historically awful. This spot, though, seems conducive to taking a shot on the enormous underdog. This game is sandwiched between a visit from the Toronto Maple Leafs and one from provincial rival Edmonton. With a day off before and after, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see a flat spot from Calgary here. The price should certainly be right with nobody interested in backing Arizona. We could see a really big line here and one that Calgary probably doesn’t deserve.
 

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MORNING LINE REPORT – Thursday, November 30th

You ever have that feeling you just can’t lose? When everything seems lined up in your favor and everything you do just seems to go your way. Well, that’s about the kind of feeling we’ve been having around here lately as I think it’s safe to say we are officially on a heater. Another sweep last night with winners on Montreal, Boston and Colorado and the post-Thanksgiving run is now 17-3. Ridiculous.
November started off with a tough stretch for a couple of weeks but things have turned around in a big way. I mentioned a few days ago that our win rates this season were staying at a level rate with a 58.7% success rate in October and about a 56% win rate in November. Our November win rate is now up to 57.9% after this nice run which is still a very sustainable number. What isn’t sustainable, however, is the current 85% rate over this past week so we need to be careful moving forward. It’s just not possible to win every game on every night and you have to guard against letting things get out of control.
That’s where the emotion of this business comes into play. That feeling of invincibility can get you in a lot of trouble if you start increasing your bet sizes or let your daily routine get a little slack. Everything can turn on a dime when it comes to sports so enjoy the good times but try to maintain a level head and keep working hard. Success is earned, not given.
We have an interesting little seven game card tonight where all these opponents are playing each other for the first time this season. As has been the theme this week, I’ll get the chart posted up early to make sure you guys can get the best lines possible before the market takes off. That paid off yesterday as that Montreal line moved into the -140s late morning which made our -126 look very nice. I was hoping to get at least a few write-ups done early but that hasn’t worked out so check in a little later for some notes below.

2017-11-30.jpg


LOS ANGELES KINGS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick/Darcy Kuemper (unknown)
Washington – Braden Holtby (expected)
Injury Report
Los Angeles – Carter (out), Clifford (out), Andreoff (out)
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Eller (probable), Smith-Pelly (probable), Djoos (likely)
The Los Angeles Kings kicked off their four game daunting road trip with a needed 4-1 win in Detroit. With stops in Washington, St. Louis and Chicago to come, Tuesday’s game was maybe the best chance for a Kings win and they capitalized with a big effort.
Stevens mixed up his defensive pairs against the Wings by reuniting Drew Doughty with Jake Muzzin on the top pair for the first time since 2014’s Cup run. Alec Martinez and Oscar Fantenberg formed the second pair and Fantenberg logged a season-high ice-time of almost 20 minutes. Fantenberg has been a pleasant surprise on the blueline this year contributing seven points in 19 games. Christian Folin and Derek Forbort rounded out an underrated third pairing. You won’t see Folin and Forbort’s name on the scoresheet very often but they have both been excellent stay at home defensemen this year with positive possession numbers and they haven’t been getting caught out of position.
Los Angeles starts a back-to-back tonight and I haven’t seen confirmation of who will start in net. You could almost always pencil in the starter in the first game and the backup for the second with the Kings but they threw a curveball on their last back-to-back and started Kuemper first, so we’ll have to see what Stevens decides.
The Washington Capitals have looked more like the President’s Trophy winners lately and that has coincided with the reuniting of Alex Ovechkin with Nicklas Backstrom on the top line. Ovechkin has five goals in the three goals since being back together and the Capitals are playing their best hockey of the season.
Saturday’s 4-2 win at Toronto was a flat out dominating effort through 40 minutes before the Leafs made things interesting late. Washington now returns home to kick off a five game homestand where they have won seven of their last eight games.
Rookie defenseman Christian Djoos is expected to be activated today and possibly be in the lineup tonight. Trotz hasn’t officially confirmed this yet but it looks like a safe bet. Taylor Chorney is expected to sit out and this is an excellent upgrade for the Caps.
Lars Eller and Devante Smith-Pelly both returned to practice yesterday and are expected to play. Eller was dealing with a visa immigration issue and Smith-Pelly was sick.
This line looked short to me before I even ran the numbers so I wasn’t surprised to see this come up as a play on Washington. It was closer than I expected though and only qualifies as a full play thanks to an overnight move which has seen the opener drop a few pennies. My line is with Quick in goal so it doesn’t matter who starts for them as this would still qualify as a play. If Kuemper goes it will be playable to a higher number which I’ll update on Twitter if need be. The Capitals are playing the best they have all season and asserting their home ice dominance again, so this is a play I really like tonight.

MONTREAL CANADIENS @ DETROIT RED WINGS
Projected Goaltenders
Montreal – Carey Price/Antti Niemi (unknown)
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (likely)
Injury Report
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Lehkonen (out), Weber (doubtful), Drouin (out)
Detroit – Frk (questionable), Daley (questionable)
The Montreal Canadiens have now won three in a row since the return of Carey Price and they can thank him for all three of those victories. Price has stopped 100 of 102 shots in three dominant performances and he looks to be back in top-form. Montreal now opens an important home-and-home with a quick trip to Detroit before returning home for another five games at the Bell Centre.
Tonight will be Montreal’s third game in four nights and fourth in six but Julien hasn’t ruled out the possibility of going right back to Price as his starter. Antti Niemi played well in his lone appearance with the Habs but Julien realizes how critical this current stretch is and may be willing to ride his horse. Price did have a lot of time off so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in net tonight and I’ve made my line with that expectation.
You may have heard Jonathan Drouin didn’t travel with the team to Detroit after last night’s game. No worries Habs fans as Drouin isn’t injured. He was just a dummy and forgot his passport so couldn’t cross the border. Drouin is expected to meet up with the team today and play tonight. [UPDATE: Apparently this isn’t the case at all (thanks a lot Montreal beat writer). Drouin was just announced day-to-day with a lower-body injury and didn’t travel with the team and isn’t expected to play tonight after all]
Shea Weber did travel with the team and there’s a chance he could return to the lineup tonight but we’ll have to wait for an official update. I did include him as in when I made my line. [UPDATE: Eric Engels, one of Montreal’s most reliable reporters, just said he thinks Weber has been placed on IR and therefore may not play tonight. It’s a bit of a confusing situation since if Weber was placed on IR last night, he could technically be activated for tonight but it would require someone else to be sent down. My new line is updated below now with Weber expected out of the lineup]
Montreal made a late transaction last night when they called up Daniel Carr from Laval. Carr currently leads the Rockets with 12 goals and is going to be a big boost to Montreal’s fourth line. The current line of Jacob De La Rose, Nicolas Deslauriers and Byron Froese is hot garbage and really weighing down the team since Ales Hemsky and Arturri Lehkonen were sidelined with injury. Carr is a gritty player with a scoring touch who should have been on the roster from opening day so it’s nice to see him finally get a chance. Carr’s linemate in Laval, Peter Holland, could be next as he’s also been playing great hockey and would be another nice boost at fourth line center for Montreal.
David Schlemko returned last night and looked very good. He instantly makes the Habs blueline better, even at the expense of promising rookie Victor Mete who was having a solid debut.
The Detroit Red Wings are one of several teams who came out of the gate hot but are quickly falling back to where they were expected to be. The Wings lost for the fifth straight time in a pretty lackluster 4-1 defeat to visiting Los Angeles and Henrik Zetterberg’s career-long scoring drought reached 18 games. Detroit has actually only lost twice in regulation over the last eight games so it’s not like they are playing terrible by any means but they are having trouble finishing games.
Trevor Daley is questionable for tonight. He practiced yesterday and says he feels good and ready to go but Blashill said they need to make sure he’s completely symptom-free. It sounds like he’ll likely play so my line includes him in the lineup. Martin Frk also practiced and is getting close. Blashill said his best guess would be a return this Saturday. Frans Nielsen was given a “maintenance day” but is expected to play tonight.
We’ll wait for a line to open here this morning but we’ll also need some confirmations on Price/Niemi and Weber before making a decision. I’m not overly interested in getting involved here so we’ll most likely sit this one out unless there’s a terrible opening number. [UPDATE: With the recent Drouin news and Weber update, my new line for this game is now Detroit -111/-120 so we’ll see where this one opens. If Price starts I think the under is probably the best play here]

VANCOUVER CANUCKS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Projected Goaltenders
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (expected)
Injury Report
Vancouver – Sutter (out), Dorsett (out), Gudbranson (out)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Hartnell (doubtful), Weber (doubtful)
The Vancouver Canucks will wrap up a six game road trip tonight and they probably can’t wait to get home after dropping their third straight in Brooklyn on Tuesday night by a 5-2 score. The Canucks were flat from the start and Travis Green said he thought his team was getting worn out on this trip and were tired. That was pretty evident by Brock Boeser’s yawn on the bench when the third period was beginning.
The Canucks are really missing Sutter and Dorsett as that top shutdown line. Other players are being forced out of position now and the smooth chemistry displayed by Vancouver’s other three lines just isn’t there right now.
There was some sad news shared by the Canucks Twitter account this morning with the announcement that Derek Dorsett would not be returning to hockey. The complications with his neck are just too severe and doctors have advised him not to return to the game. Dorsett was having a solid season and as important as anyone not named Bo Horvat or Brock Boeser in that forward group.
No confirmation on tonight’s starter but I went with Jacob Markstrom for my line. Nilsson is coming off a tough game so would expect the rotation to continue.
The Nashville Predators continued their home ice domination on Tuesday night with a 3-2 win over Chicago and are now 9-1-1 at Bridgestone Arena. The Hawks played a really strong game and this one was tight the whole way. Nashville owns the NHL’s best record in November at 10-2-1 and with a win tonight would tie a franchise record for most wins ever in the month.
Scott Hartnell and Yannick Weber are both practicing with the team again but I don’t believe either are ready to return yet. They’re getting close though and that’s why I listed as doubtful and not completely out, as I’m just not fully sure. No other expected changes for the Predators tonight other than their backup goaltender. Juuse Saros was sent down this morning in favor of AHL wins leader, Anders Lindback. Pekka Rinne is expected to get the start. Rinne has been sensational of late winning his last five starts with a 1.77 goals-against average and .946 save percentage.
This line opened exactly where it should but a small move towards Vancouver this morning has it just a couple of cents below my cut-off. There isn’t the regular amount of value here tonight but based on the situation this is a huge buy spot for Nashville. The Canucks were exhausted last game and traveling from Brooklyn to Nashville with just one day off isn’t likely to help matters. I’m still debating exactly how to play this as I think this one might be okay to play in regulation, but let me mull it over a bit more and I’ll post the play on Twitter shortly.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS @ MINNESOTA WILD
Projected Goaltenders
Vegas – Malcolm Subban/Maxime Lagace (unknown)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (expected)
Injury Report
Vegas – Perron (out), Carrier (out), Sbisa (probable)
Minnesota – Parise (out), Spurgeon (out)
The Vegas Golden Knights five game win streak ended on Tuesday night with another franchise first. The Knights were shutout for the first time in their short history, blanked 3-0 by Dallas. A tough travel schedule continues for Vegas here as they have alternated single home and road games for the last two weeks.
David Perron did not make the trip with the team and will miss his third straight game. Defenseman Luca Sbisa did travel with the club and is questionable.
The Knights open a tough back-to-back tonight with a trip further north to Winnipeg tomorrow. Subban and Lagace will likely split the duties and I would expect Subban tonight but there’s been no confirmation.
The Minnesota Wild are coming off a pair of ugly road losses at the hands of the Blues and Jets. After jumping out to an early 2-0 lead on Monday night, Winnipeg turned on the jets and pumped seven goals past backup Alex Stalock who took the full brunt for 60 minutes.
That wrapped up a long stretch of eight games in 14 days. The Wild had their first back-to-back days off since November 12-13[SUP]th[/SUP] and were finally able to practice on some things. When teams only have one day off between games, they don’t get the chance to hold full practices so if there’s things they need to work on it’s basically on-the-fly in-game. And the Wild had a lot of things to work on which is why they held a lengthy practice yesterday.
General Manager Cliff Fletcher called out his team yesterday, particularly the forwards, calling the Wild’s season “incredibly disappointing” and hoping Monday’s defeat would be “an eye-opener”. When your GM finally gets fed up to the point of making a public statement on how embarrassing your play is, you better take notice. With two days off and a full practice under their belts, I’m expecting a max effort from the Wild tonight.
I was hoping to find a lower opener here so we could jump on Minnesota but oddsmakers opened this one exactly where I had it. I think this is going to be a pretty tough game for Vegas to win but I’m not crazy about buying this big of a number on an inconsistent Wild team. They would probably make a good parlay with Nashville so now I just have to convince myself to pull the trigger. Stay tuned for a Twitter update to see if I can muster the courage to play this.

DALLAS STARS @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Chicago – Corey Crawford (confirmed)
Injury Report
Dallas – Methot (out), Hanzal (out)
Chicago – Hossa (out)
I was looking forward to just watching this one as it should be a really good game. The opener at -135 was too high though and then it rose overnight to -146. That line implies the Hawks would be a fair bit better than the Stars if these teams played on neutral ice and that just shouldn’t be the case. The Hawks are on a better run recently but so are the Stars and there’s no way I could pass up the price for what should be a coin flip game. We’ll see what side the coin lands on tonight but either way I like the Stars chances and we got a great price this morning to boot.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ CALGARY FLAMES
Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Scott Wedgewood (confirmed)
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)
Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (out)
Calgary – Versteeg (out), Jagr (probable), Bennett (in)
Arizona is coming off a 3-2 overtime loss at Edmonton and have dropped three of four overall. Times are tough again for the Coyotes without their starting goaltender, Antti Raanta. Scott Wedgewood will start again tonight as Raanta is likely out through the weekend. Tocchet said they’ll get another update on him Friday.
Tocchet said the team really struggles when they can’t get the extra practice time. The Coyotes have had a tighter schedule than most to the point having already gone through a stretch of 11 games in 19 days and another of seven in 12. Arizona will finally get a three day break after their December 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] game so their next game after that in Boston on December 7[SUP]th[/SUP] might be one to circle as a good spot.
Niklas Hjalmarsson is out again and has been ruled out for Saturday’s game, as well. Hjalmarsson missed ten games earlier this year and was sorely missed on the blueline and Arizona will have to try and plug the hole again. Fortunately, Jacob Chychrun is about ready to make his season debut. He was sent to Tucson for a conditioning stint earlier this week and Tocchet said he’s just days away from returning to the big club, possibly as early as this weekend.
The Calgary Flames continue a four game homestand tonight after dropping the opener on Tuesday, 4-1 to Toronto.
It was announced today that Kris Versteeg might be lost for the year which would be a tough loss for Calgary. He’s been a key member of the top powerplay unit and a veteran leader in the locker room. With the extra roster spot the Flames called up Garnet Hathaway, the AHL’s second leading goal scorer. He’s a physical player who should help the struggling fourth line.
Jaromir Jagr missed last game but skated with the team in regular rushes today and is expected back in the lineup. Sam Bennett has a few new stitches on his face after a nasty cut but is good to go for tonight.
The Coyotes really struggled when Raanta and Hjalmarsson were both out earlier this year and after getting them back and playing well for a short stretch, they have to adapt again. This is a pretty good spot for Calgary but the line was priced in the range it should be. Actually, as I finished that sentence I notice it just dropped to -177 which is now slightly too low. We’ll keep an eye on it and if it drops further we may add as a play.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)
Edmonton – Laurent Brossoit (confirmed)
Injury Report
Toronto – no significant injuries
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Khaira (out)
If you have any specific questions about this game feel free to hit me up on Twitter. The biggest news here is that Cam Talbot will be out at least two weeks so Laurent Brossoit will get the start tonight. Big, big test for the Oilers now who were maybe starting to play a bit better.
 

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College basketball knowledge

Michigan State pounded North Carolina 63-45 Sunday night; Spartans are 5-1 vs schedule #58- 4 of their 6 games were on neutral floors. MSU has #3 eFG% defense in country, but has turned ball over 22.8% of time while playing a slowish pace. Notre Dame is 6-0; they haven’t played in 8 days since beating Wichita St 67-66 in Maui final, after trailing by 16 at one point. Irish play #37 pace, in bottom 15 in country. Big 14 home favorites are 19-14 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 5-7 away from home. ACC teams are 12-4 SU vs Big 14 this year (9-7 vs spread).

Harvard won three of last four games with Northeastern, losing 80-71 in last visit here couple years ago. Huskies lost their last four games, allowing 80.5 ppg- they’ve turned ball over 24.3% of time vs schedule #65- they’re #268 experience team. Harvard lost four of last five games, with three of those losses to teams outside top 200; they’re shooting only 28.8% on arc, turning ball over 20.6% of time. CAA home favorites are 2-1 vs spread; Ivy League road underdogs are 6-7. Ivy League teams covered seven of last 10 games vs CAA teams.

East Carolina coach Lebo quit/was fired earlier this week; Pirates lost three of last four games with NC-Wilmington, with only win two years ago. UNCW is 1-3 vs D-I teams, losing only true road game by 27 at Davidson; Seahawks have played schedule #78. UNCW is playing pace #11- they’ve been a terrible defensive team so far under new coach McGrath- their only win was over Campbell. CAA favorites are 3-4 vs spread away from home; AAC underdogs are 6-8. Last 2+ years, AAC teams are 8-6 vs spread when playing CAA squads.

UAB lost 62-55 at Memphis LY, in brickfest where teams shot combined 4-25 on arc; Blazers went 0-3 at Cayman Islands tourney- they’re 2-3 vs D-I teams, 0-3 vs top 200 teams, losing by 13-5-10 points. Memphis is 3-1 vs schedule #272; Tigers are shooting only 26.9% on arc while turning ball over 21.7% of time. Memphis starts three juniors, one senior. C-USA home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 6-8 away from home. Last 2+ years, AAC teams are 10-6 vs spread when facing a C-USA team.

Central Florida’s best player Taylor is out hurt and UCF is turning ball over 24.6% of time; UCF is 4-2 but lost last two games in the Orlando tourney, scoring 45-43 points. Knights’ best win is over #109 Nebraska. Missouri won 2 of 3 in that same Orlando tourney; Tigers are without star freshman Porter- they’re turning ball over 22.3% of time, but are making 41.2% on the arc. SEC favorites are 15-6 vs spread away from home; AAC underdogs are 6-9. Last 2+ years, SEC teams are 11-7 vs spread when playing an AAC opponent.

San Diego State won nine of last 10 games with San Diego, with only loss two years ago in a game played outdoors at Petco Park. Aztecs are 5-2 in Dutcher’s first year as coach, losing final of Fullerton tourney- they’re #222 experience team but their bench is 54th in minutes played. San Diego Toreros are 5-0 vs schedule #341; only top 150 team they’ve played is Grand Canyon, a good WAC team. Mountain West favorites are 7-5 vs spread away from home; WCC underdogs are 3-10. MW teams are 5-2 vs spread when playing WCC opponents this season.

Pacific won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; 3-0 vs teams outside top 200, 0-4 vs top 200 teams. Riverside lost last three D-I games after upsetting Cal in its opener; UCR is turning ball over 23.1% of time, making just 24.6% on arc. Highlanders start three seniors, so they should be better. Pacific starts two sophs, three juniors- they’re #222 experience team. WCC favorites are 7-13 vs spread, 4-4 away from home; Big West underdogs are 19-13, 1-1 at home. Last 2+ years, Big West teams are 24-21 vs WCC teams (6-1 this year).

Texas Tech starts five seniors, is 6-0 with top 100 wins over BC/Northwestern at Mohegan Sun- this is already their 2nd trip to the Northeast, long way from home. Red Raiders force turnovers 26.3% of time. Seton Hall is #96 team; they’re 5-1 with wins over Indiana/Vandy- they lost by a point to URI on neutral floor. Pirates force turnovers 24.1% of time. Big X favorites are 9-10 away from home; Big East underdogs are 3-6, 0-2 at home. Last 2+ years, Big X teams are 5-5 vs spread when playing a Big East opponent.

South Carolina is 5-1 after winning at FIU Monday; Gamecocks are #273 experience team, also won at Wofford- their only loss was 69-65 to Illinois State in Myrtle Beach tourney. Temple got upset at LaSalle Sunday; Owls are 3-1 with three top 75 wins. over ODU-Auburn-Clemson (schedule #
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. Temple starts two juniors, two seniors. Carolina led by 11 with 10:57 Sunday, were outscored 32-17 rest of way. SEC favorites are 15-6 vs spread away from home; AAC underdogs are 6-8. Last 2+ years, SEC teams are 11-7 vs spread when playing an AAC opponent.

Charleston is 3-2 vs D-I teams after going 1-1 in Alaskan Shootout; Cougars are missing one of their better players- they are 3-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200- they’re forcing turnovers 23.3% of time. Western Carolina is 1-5 vs D-I teams with only win vs #349 Alabama A&M; WCU is turning ball over 24.6% of time- four of their five losses were to top 80 teams in nation. CAA favorites are 5-5 vs spread; SoCon underdogs are 8-15 away from home. Last 2+ years, SoCon teams are 8-4 vs spread when playing CAA squads.

Mississippi State is 5-0 vs schedule #346; their best two wins are Jacksonville State, SF Austin. Bulldogs are shooting only 26.2% outside arc- they’re #332 experience team that is playing lot of subs. North Dakota State’s confidence should be helped by So Dakota St winning at Ole Miss the other day; Bison are 3-3, with only top 100 game a 10-point loss at USC. SEC home favorites are 8-11 vs spread; Summit League underdogs are 12-15 away from home. Last 2+ years, SEC teams are 6-3 vs spread when playing a Summit league foe.

Weber State is 2-2 vs D-I teams, beating Mountain West’s Utah St by 6; this is their first D-I game in 11 days. Wildcats are #220 experience team that plays slow pace and doesn’t sub much. Fresno State is #19 experience team that is 4-2, losing to Arkansas/Evansville; Bulldogs don’t sub much either, but are making 39.1% of their 3-pointers. Mountain West home favorites are 15-5 vs spread; Big Sky underdogs are 18-21 away from home. Last 2+ years, Big Sky squads are 21-19 vs spread when playing a MW opponent.

Santa Clara is 0-4 vs D-I teams, and even lost to Anchroage up in Alaska; Broncos protect ball well, but are shooting 32.1% on arc, 42.3% inside arc- they play pace #333. Northern Arizona is 0-6 with a loss to an NAIA school; Lumberjacks are turning ball over 25.6% of time, shooting 40.8% inside arc- when you’re 0-6, all the stats are dreadful. WCC home favorites are 3-9 vs spread; Big Sky underdogs are 18-21 away from home. Last 2+ years, WCC teams are 17-16-1 vs spread when playing a Big Sky opponent.
 

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Thursday's Tip Sheet

This week’s Big Ten/ACC Challenge continues into Thursday night with a featured showdown between No. 5 Notre Dame, out of the ACC and the Big Ten’s No. 3 Michigan State Spartans.

Also on the schedule is a pair of intriguing matchups at Madison Square Garden featuring teams from the Big 12 and SEC.

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Michigan State -6, Total 140


Betting Matchup

The Fighting Irish started this season ranked No. 14 in the initial AP Top 25 and they have made the quick jump into the top five teams in the nation with quality victories against LSU and Wichita State in their last two games. Notre Dame is now 6-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread in games with a posted betting line. The total has stayed UNDER in all four of those games.

Led by senior guard Bonzie Colson’s team-high 20.0 points per game, the Irish are scoring an average of 84.5 points. He is also pulling down 10.5 rebounds a game to round-out this impressive double-double performance. Another big reason for the strong start has been a stout defensive effort that is only allowing an average of 60.2 points at the other end of the court.

Michigan State was expected to be one of the top teams in the nation this season and it has lived up to those expectations at 5-1 SU with the only loss coming against No. 1 Duke on Nov. 14 by seven points as a one-point favorite. The Spartans are 4-2 ATS and the total has stayed UNDER in their last three games. They come into this game riding high after knocking off North Carolina 63-45 as two-point favorites in the Victory Bracket of last weekend’s PK80 Invitational.

Jumping out to a 37-23 lead at the half against the Tar Heels, sophomore guard Joshua Langford kept the pressure going all game long with a game-high 23 points aided by a 5-for-7 shooting performance from three-point range. Another sophomore Mile Bridges ended the day with 11 points which was a bit shy of his team-high scoring average of 15.2 PPG. The Spartans are averaging 80.8 points a game while connecting on 50.4 percent of their shots from the field.

Betting Trends

-- The Fighting Irish have covered in four of their last five games against a Big Ten team and they have gone 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of their last six road games.

-- The Spartans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games and they have covered ATS in seven of their last 10 games against the ACC. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games against a team from the ACC.

-- These teams last met in 2014 with Notre Dame coming away with a tight 79-78 victory in overtime, but it failed to cover as a three-point favorite. The total went OVER the closing 136-point line.

Bonus Games - Under Armour Reunion from Madison Square Garden

Seton Hall Pirates vs. No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders (FOX Sports 1, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Texas Tech -1, Total 139.5

The Big East’s Pirates are 5-1 SU with a 2-4 record ATS through their first six games. The total has gone OVER in three of five games with a posted line. Seton Hall is coming off last Friday’s 72-59 victory against Vanderbilt as a 6 ½-point favorite, but it is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU win.

Texas Tech, out of the Big 12 was unranked heading into this season and it has worked its way into the AP Top 25 with a SU 6-0 start that includes victories against Boston College and Northwestern. It has covered in three of four games with posted lines with the total staying UNDER in all four games. The Red Raiders are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team from the Big East.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Temple Owls (ESPNU, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: South Carolina -1, Total 143

With a SU 5-1 start against softer competition, the SEC’s Gamecocks will look to add a quality victory to the resume on Thursday night. South Carolina has also gone a profitable 5-1 ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of the six games. Going back to last season, it is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.

Temple dropped its first game of the season following a 3-0 start both SU and ATS with an 87-83 loss to La Salle in Sunday’s Big 5 matchup in Philadelphia. The total went OVER 139 ½-points in that game and it has gone OVER in three of its first four games. The AAC’s Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five games against the SEC
 

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NCAAB Long Sheet

NOTRE DAME (6 - 0) at MICHIGAN ST (5 - 1) - 11/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 39-12 ATS (+25.8 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


HARVARD (3 - 4) at NORTHEASTERN (2 - 4) - 11/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
HARVARD is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHEASTERN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHEASTERN is 1-1 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
NORTHEASTERN is 1-1 straight up against HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


S FLORIDA (4 - 3) at ELON (4 - 3) - 11/30/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ELON is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
ELON is 1-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


UNC-WILMINGTON (2 - 3) at E CAROLINA (2 - 4) - 11/30/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MEMPHIS (3 - 1) at UAB (4 - 3) - 11/30/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 1-0 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N TEXAS (4 - 3) at OKLAHOMA (4 - 1) - 11/30/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N TEXAS is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
N TEXAS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


MISSOURI (5 - 2) at UCF (4 - 2) - 11/30/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
UCF is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
UCF is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


SAN DIEGO ST (5 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 0) - 11/30/2017, 11:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


PACIFIC (3 - 4) at UC-RIVERSIDE (2 - 3) - 11/30/2017, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PACIFIC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
UC-RIVERSIDE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


TEXAS TECH (6 - 0) vs. SETON HALL (5 - 1) - 11/30/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 133-177 ATS (-61.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


S CAROLINA (5 - 1) vs. TEMPLE (3 - 1) - 11/30/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
TEMPLE is 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


W CAROLINA (2 - 5) at COLL OF CHARLESTON (4 - 2) - 11/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W CAROLINA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
W CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
W CAROLINA is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in road games in November games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 1-1 against the spread versus W CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 2-0 straight up against W CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N DAKOTA ST (3 - 3) at MISSISSIPPI ST (5 - 0) - 11/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N DAKOTA ST is 21-36 ATS (-18.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 21-36 ATS (-18.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


WEBER ST (4 - 2) at FRESNO ST (4 - 2) - 11/30/2017, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
FRESNO ST is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


N ARIZONA (0 - 6) at SANTA CLARA (1 - 5) - 11/30/2017, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ARIZONA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus SANTA CLARA over the last 3 seasons
SANTA CLARA is 1-0 straight up against N ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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NCAAB Top Trends

[FONT=&quot]7:00 pm 11/30/2017

(511) NOTRE DAME @(512) MICHIGAN ST
Play ON MICHIGAN ST against the spread in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
Rating: 2.02

[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]8:00 pm 11/30/2017

(519) MEMPHIS @(520) UAB
Play AGAINST UAB against the spread in All games when the total is 140 to 149.5.
The record is 5 Wins and 19 Losses for the last three seasons (-15.9 units)
Rating: 2.61

[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]9:00 pm 11/30/2017

(531) S CAROLINA @(532) TEMPLE
Play ON S CAROLINA against the spread in Road games after a non-conference game.
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.8 units)
Rating: 3.34

[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]9:00 pm 11/30/2017

(531) S CAROLINA @(532) TEMPLE
Play ON S CAROLINA against the spread in Road games in non-conference games.
The record is 13 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
Rating: 2.81

[/FONT]
 

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Redskins (5-6) @ Cowboys (5-6)— Washington is 5-0 when they allow 24 or less points, 0-6 when they allow more. Cowboys are in freefall, losing last three games by combined score of 92-22, 72-6 in 2nd half. Dallas was outsacked 14-1 in last three games, with -7 turnover rate (1-
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. Cowboys lost four of last five home games. Redskins lost four of last six games, are 2-3 on road, 3-2 vs spread as road underdog. Dallas (-2) beat Redskins 33-19 in first meeting in Week 8, outrushing Washington 169-49, with +2 turnover ratio. Cowboys won seven of last nine series games, but Redskins won three of last five visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 0-4 in Cowboys’ last four. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games.
 

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WASHINGTON (5 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 6) - 11/30/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON @ DALLAS
Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington
 

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TNF - Redskins at Cowboys
November 30, 2017

Washington (-1.5, 45) at Dallas, 8:25 pm ET, NBC

Neither of these teams had an impressive Thanksgiving showing. Although Washington managed to win, it came in without so many of the key players it opened the season with that there was little to be thankful for outside of the fact that the Giants were just worse off. The Redskins were even with New York 10-10 in the fourth quarter before scoring the final 10 points in less than two minutes with the clock running down. The game undoubtedly put a lot of people to sleep, doing so without an assist from the tryptophan.

Hours earlier, Dallas was a disaster, falling at home to the surging Chargers 28-6. The Cowboys registered a season-low in points with everyone watching them fail miserably. Since Ezekiel Elliott dropped his appeals and began serving a six-game suspension for domestic abuse, they’ve averaged 7.7 points in three losses. The Falcons, Eagles and Chargers have outscored “America’s team” by a combined margin of 92-22. While all three of those teams are playing well and currently on winning streaks, the sheer lack of competitiveness has been from the Cowboys has been glaring.

Standout left tackle Tyron Smith’s back injury created a domino effect since the offensive line couldn’t hold up without him. The game of musical chairs that’s been played to try and replace him forced guys out of position and resulted in Dak Prescott getting sacked 12 times. Smith returned last week and looked to be about 75 percent, which is still an improvement on any of Dallas’ alternatives. Prescott was only sacked twice, but was picked off two times and completed just one pass longer than 20 yards.

Elliott will be out until Week 16, which means he will be back out there, presumably fresh and healthy, for the Cowboys toughest games against Seattle and at Philadelphia. If they get through this contest, they’ll have nine days in between games before visiting the New York Giants and the Oakland Raiders. Since Darren McFadden retired this week, former Redskins standout Alfred Morris will get the call to try and make a difference here. He ran for over 4,700 yards in four seasons in Washington, but has barely topped 500 in 23 games with the Cowboys, starting only the last two. He gained three yards on three carries in a 33-19 win in Week 8.

Elliott ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries in the win in Landover on Oct. 29, while Mike Nugent added four second-half field goals. Washington ran for just 49 yards, while Kirk Cousins threw for 263 but had a game-clinching interception returned for the final score to turn out the lights and help deliver the over (46.5) in a tough break for those on the under who were 21 seconds from cashing.

Cousins connected with Jamison Crowder nine times for 123 yards in the first meeting with Dallas and got him back last week against the Giants, so he’s got a lot of weapons in place. Cousins earned his first career weekday win in 10 tries by pulling out the Thanksgiving nightcap and will be looking to avoid a second consecutive sweep at the hands of the Cowboys.

Washington lost its most valuable offensive weapon, RB Chris Thompson, to a fractured fibula in Week 11. He ranked third in the NFL as a receiving threat out of the backfield, but Crowder’s return softens the blow some and rookie Samaje Perine’s hard running in picking up 100 yards on the ground and an additional 30 through the air was a welcome sight. If the Redskins can win here, they don’t face a team currently over .500 the rest of the way, visiting the Chargers on Dec. 10 before home games against the Cardinals and Broncos are followed by one final road trip to face the Giants on New Year’s Eve.

The winner here can dream about running the table and sneaking into the NFC postseason picture. The loser will know that 9-7 won’t be good enough. Dallas’ last four games have gone under the posted total, while the over has prevailed in six of the last eight involving Washington.
 

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Washington at Dallas

Washington at Dallas Cowboys (+2, 46)

The Dallas Cowboys are a decidedly different team than the one that coasted to a 33-19 win against Washington last month, especially considering Ezekiel Elliott rolled up a season-high 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns in that outing. With Elliott suspended, the Cowboys' overall offense hasn't been as potent and mustered just 22 points during the team's three-game losing skid heading into Thursday's contest versus visiting Washington.

The Cowboys are averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry in Elliott's absence, but that's just noise to Alfred Morris as he prepares to face his former team. "You can say (the running game has been good enough), but it doesn't matter," Morris said. "We’re not winning games. We're not putting points on the board, so it doesn't matter if we, in a sense, are doing our part." Washington reached 30 points in back-to-back losses before tightening their defense in a 20-10 win over the sputtering New York Giants on Thanksgiving. Kirk Cousins (NFL second-best 3,038 yards), who tossed a pair of touchdown passes against the Giants, has thrown for 625 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions in his last two encounters with the Cowboys.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (0) - Dallas (+2.5) + home field (-3) = Dallas -0.5.

LINE HISTORY: Dallas opened as 1.5-point home favorites but on Tuesday afternoon the spread jumped the fence to Washington -1 and continued to move in that direction, now at 2. The total hit betting boards at 44 and has been bumped up to 46. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams played on Thanksgiving last week, so a rare situation where both teams have a full week of rest heading into the Thursday night game. Both teams are 5-6 SU and 5-6 ATS, but Dallas is a home underdog based on recent results as the Cowboys are 0-3 SU/ATS in the past three games since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott. Quite a line adjustment for this game considering Dallas was a 3-point road favorite at Washington just one month ago when they won 33-19. That result put the Redskins on a 0-4 ATS slide, but Washington has since gone 3-1 ATS in their past four games following that loss." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril.

WEATHER REPORT: Roof if needed - weather will not be a factor.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Back), LB Zach Brown (Questionable, Shoulder), G Brandon Scherff (Questionable, Knee), T Ty Nsekhe (Probable, Abdominal), T Morgan Moses (Probable, Ankle), DL Anthony Lanier II (Probable, Knee), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Hand), T Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Martrell Spaight (Questionable, Ankle), DL Terrell McClain (Out, Toe), S Montae Nicholson (Out, Concussion), TE Jordan Reed (Out, Hamstring), C Chase Roullier (Out, Hand), C Spencer Long (I-R, Hip Flexor), G Shawn Lauvao (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Thompson (I-R, Leg), WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. (I-R, Ankle), T T.J. Clemmings (I-R, Ankle), LB Will Compton (I-R, Foot), RB Rob Kelley (I-R, Ankle), DL Arthur Jones (I-R, Shoulder), LB Mason Foster (I-R, Shoulder), DL Jonathan Allen (Out, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip), S Su'a Cravens (I-R, Knee), DL Phil Taylor Sr. (I-R, Quadricep), T Kevin Bowen (I-R, Ankle), LB Trent Murphy (I-R, Knee), RB Keith Marshall (I-R, Knee).

Dallas - LB Anthony Hitchens (Probable, Groin), WR Ryan Switzer (Probable, Ankle), DT Maliek Collins (Probable, Foot), T Tyron Smith (Probable, Back), G Zack Martin (Probable, Concussion), T La'el Collins (Questionable, Back), LB Justin Durant (Out, Concussion), LB Sean Lee (Out, Hamstring), RB Ezekiel Elliott (Elig Week 16, Suspension), DE Randy Gregory (Out For Season, Suspension), TE Rico Gathers (Questionable, Concussion), TE Connor Hamlett (Questionable, Calf), DE Charles Tapper (Questionable, Foot), DT Brian Price (I-R, Knee), CB Duke Thomas (I-R, Knee), QB Zac Dysert (I-R, Back).

ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): While coach Jay Gruden was pleased to see left tackle Trent Williams (knee) participate in practice in a bid to end a one-game absence versus Dallas, the coach doesn't have high hopes for the return of tight end Jordan Reed. "Your guess is as good as mine," Gruden said of a potential return date for Reed, who has missed each of the last four games with a hamstring injury. "Obviously there is an issue there, otherwise I would like to think he would be further along now. But we just have to get him healthy." Rookie running back Samaje Perine has looked healthy with 217 rushing yards in his last two contests, and a season-best 130 scrimmage yards (100 rushing, 30 receiving) last week.

ABOUT DALLAS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing game have taken a hit with the threat of Elliott removed from the offense. "It's frustrating, simple as that. But what it does is it makes being on top fun," said Prescott, who tossed five interceptions in his last two games to eclipse his total of four during his rookie season in 2016. "That's what it's all about is getting out of these whatever you call them, ruts, or whatever they are and getting back to our expectations, our standards." Wideout Dez Bryant has struggled to get untracked without Elliott, failing to crack 40 yards receiving in two of the last three games
 

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Thursday’s Top Props

The Five Best Player Props For Redskins-Cowboys

The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 13 features the Washington Redskins trying to keep hope alive against a plummeting Dallas Cowboys team that’s been a waste of time since they lost Ezekiel Elliott. Washington needs a lot of luck to bust through in to the playoff picture, and getting some distance between them and the Cowboys can start tonight with a big victory.

This is a very close game on the betting board. The oddsmakers are bracing for a potential bounce back game from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, marking Washington as slim -2.0 favorites on the road. If that line isn’t too your liking (and it should be), here are some NFL prop bets for Thursday Night to get you going.

Odds per BetOnline.ag

Dak Prescott Throws An Interception (Yes -120 / No +100)
This basically means that Dak Prescott will throw an interception, and this is as good as free money gets on a Thursday night. Prescott has thrown 5 picks in the last two games, and there’s literally no way for him to have improved any bad habits over the last few days since the team was crushed by the Chargers. There’s no denying that Prescott has regressed a touch in his sophomore year, but he’s slumping without a strong running game. The Redskins are 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in interceptions and this opportunistic secondary is at full healthy. Vote “Yes” on Prescott throwing a pick.

Kirk Cousins 23.5 Completions (Yes +100 / No -120)
This number probably feels a little low given that Cousins and the Redskins don’t truthfully have too many options here. Their running game sucks, and the Cowboys secondary is just a week removed from being victimized for 434 yards against Philip Rivers. On average, Cousins completes 22.6 passes, and in his last three games he’s only completed 22.3 throws against the Giants, Saints and Vikings.

Game script is also going to probably work against Cousins here. If Dallas doesn’t really get anything moving against a tough defensive front, there’s no particular reason for Cousins to go ballistic through the air. Even in games where he cuts loose, like against New Orleans, Cousins’ historical volume doesn’t suggest he’ll peak over 23.5 completions.

Besides, if you bet “no” on this you can cheer for every time his receivers drop the ball.

Jamison Crowder Receives For 67.5 Yards (Yes -105 / No -115)
Considering that Crowder has erupted in the last month of football for a total of 27 catches and 412 yards receiving, along with a lone touchdown, this seems like a given in the OVER. Crowder is quickly becoming Cousins’ defacto number-one, and he’s producing like a top receiver should given that Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed are both out with injury.

The chemistry and Cousins and Crowder have is undeniable and the oddsmakers seem keen to hang a low number here based on the idea that the Redskins will run clock to preserve a lead. Crowder can do all of this damage with just a few catches. He’s hit longs of 38, 36 and 41 over the last three weeks. This is a terrific value play, and you can also double down on Crowder receiving OVER 5.5 catches at -115 on this very board.

Alfred Morris Rushes for 56.5 Yards (Yes -120 / No +100)
This is tougher than you probably think it is. Morris has rushed for an average of 60 yards over his last three games and the Redskins have a formidable front-seven that can easily contain him. The pedigree in the Dallas running game was always the beastliness up front, but Morris has turned in to the type of guy who falls down after a few steps. Most of his damage has come in garbage time and while the game might get away from Dallas, the idea of feeding Morris for big gains is a fool’s errand. He’ll be bottled up frequently by Washington’s capable rush defenders and doesn’t have the skills to break through tackles anymore. Take the UNDER at even money.

Dez Bryant Receives For 67.5 Yards (Yes -105 / No -115)
There are a lot of things working against Bryant in this NFL prop bet. First, he’s only caught for more than 67.5 yards twice this entire season. He did so against the Rams and Chiefs. Very few pass catchers have been as big of a disappointment as Dez throughout this year. He’s only caught 53 passes for 578 yards and 4 touchdowns.

This doesn’t mean that he’s bad. Bryant is just 29 years old and has routinely been one of the biggest and best redzone threats in the league since he arrived in the NFL eight years ago. The instinct here is likely to go with the OVER, but Bryant will be going up against Josh Norman with an additional safety over top.

Washington normally doesn’t let the best receiver get loose. The last time the Cowboys played the Redskins, Bryant only managed 4 catches for 36 yards. While Bryant is still an absolute beast, this season has been a complete bust on his end. It’s not his fault, but the fact that he’ll be facing elite coverage on Thursday Night Football essentially means that he won’t be much of a factor here.
 

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NBA knowledge

Celtics won nine of last ten games with Philly, but 76ers covered four of last five. Five of last six series games went over total. Sixers covered their last three visits to Boston. Philly won six of last eight games, are 5-2 vs spread as road favorites- three of their last four road games went over total. Boston won 18 of its last 20 games; they’re 5-2-1 as home favorites. Last six Celtics games went over the total.

Hawks won four of last five games with Cleveland; road team won six of last seven series games. Cleveland is 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Atlanta. Seven of last eight series games went over total. Cavaliers won their last nine games (5-4 vs spread); they’re 3-3 as road favorites. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Hawks lost eight of last ten games; they’re 3-5 as home underdogs. Four of their last six games went over the total.

Nuggets won their last three games with Chicago; home side seven of last eight series games. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Bulls are 0-5 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Chicago lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); four of their last five games stayed under. Bulls are 0-5-1 vs spread in last six games as a road underdog. Nuggets won their last five home games, are 5-3 as home favorites. Last three Denver games stayed under total.

Bucks won five of last six games with Portland; home side won seven of last eight series games. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Milwaukee covered three of last four visits to Oregon. Bucks lost three of last five games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs. Last three Milwaukee games went over the total. Trailblazers won seven of last nine games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Portland is 2-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite.

Jazz/Clippers split their last 10 meetings (Utah 6-4 vs spread); Jazz is 4-2 vs spread in last six series games in Staples. Three of last fur series games stayed under. Utah won its last three games, all at home; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Clippers are without Griffin now (knee); they won last three games, are 5-4 as a home favorite. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
 

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[FONT=HelveticaNeue, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif]NBA Trend Sheet
[/FONT]
CLEVELAND @ ATLANTA
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home

PHILADELPHIA @ BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

CHICAGO @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

MILWAUKEE @ PORTLAND
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

UTAH @ LA CLIPPERS
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
LA Clippers is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Utah
 

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