Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17 (Projected Formulated Lines & Wagers)

Loves2kickass · Nov 29, 2017

WEEK #13 PROJECTED FORMULATED LINES

3+ point Line Differential = LEAN
4+ point Line Differential = AVERAGE WAGER
7+ point Line Differential = BEST BET WAGER

Thursday, 11/30/2017

301Washington @ 302Dallas -0.43

Sunday, 12/03/2017

351Detroit @ 352Baltimore -3.26

353San Francisco @ 354Chicago -3.32

355Minnesota -0.39 @ 356Atlanta

357New England -4.72 @ 358Buffalo

359Denver @ 360Miami -0.97

361Houston @ 362Tennessee -2.24

363Indianapolis @ 364Jacksonville -9.25

365Tampa Bay @ 366Green Bay -3.68

367Kansas City @ 368NY Jets -0.86

369Carolina @ 370New Orleans -4.99

371Cleveland @ 372LA Chargers -10.04

373LA Rams -5.77 @ 374Arizona

375NY Giants @ 376Oakland -4.95

377Philadelphia -3.54 @ 378Seattle

Monday, 12/04/2017

379Pittsburgh -2.50 @ 380Cincinnati

cashflow50 · Nov 29, 2017

This is what I’m talking about. Thank you and gl.

Loves2kickass · Nov 29, 2017

FYI There may be one, two or several sides that qualify as a wager and if I haven't posted it/them that's because I usually wait to see if I can get the line to exceed a key number, such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14 etc.

I will post as soon as I make a wager. If I haven't posted, I haven't wagered.

exploited17 · Nov 29, 2017

I'm guessing the Jets will be a play. What happened with college? Did ya give up on that.... or are ya playing the final weeks and bowl games?

Loves2kickass · Nov 29, 2017

exploited17 said:
I'm guessing the Jets will be a play. What happened with college? Did ya give up on that.... or are ya playing the final weeks and bowl games?

The Jets may be a average wager for me. Just waiting to see where the line moves and if it moves back to the opening number +4. If not I may just settle for +3.5, not sure yet.

As far as College Football is concerned I'm trying to integrate a little more statistical info into my data base. Hopefully I have it finished and ready for this week's games. If not, def by bowl season.

Loves2kickass · Nov 30, 2017

If anyone is confused about how I determine if a side is a lean, average play etc I'll explain. I formulate my own lines and compare them to the actual lines. Using tonight's game as an example.....My formulated line is Dallas -0.43 (basically - 1/2) so Dallas +3 or +3.5 would be a LEAN.....+4 to +6.5 would be a AVERAGE WAGER and +7 would be a BEST BET WAGER. Obviously the line won't get to +7 and probably not +4 so more than likely a no play for me. Could possible get to a lean but I doubt it. The game tonight, in my opinion, is a toss up as far as the side is concerned. I look for value in the line, which in my opinion, is the best strategy to use to consistently win. Of course there are other methods but I have had good, steady success with this method.

Also, for example, as you can see I have Dallas as a very slight, slight favorite tonight versus Washington. That doesn't necessarily mean that I think they will win the game. That just means that's the number that I have formulated for that particular game and unless I see line value I don't wager the game. The larger the differential (Line value) between my formulated lines and the actual line increases my opportunity to win the wager.

Good luck tonight and this week.

BetMONSTERS · Nov 30, 2017

Lines look sharp this week, so little value there...

Loves2kickass said:
If anyone is confused about how I determine if a side is a lean, average play etc I'll explain. I formulate my own lines and compare them to the actual lines. Using tonight's game as an example.....My formulated line is Dallas -0.43 (basically - 1/2) so Dallas +3 or +3.5 would be a LEAN.....+4 to +6.5 would be a AVERAGE WAGER and +7 would be a BEST BET WAGER. Obviously the line won't get to +7 and probably not +4 so more than likely a no play for me. Could possible get to a lean but I doubt it. The game tonight, in my opinion, is a toss up as far as the side is concerned. I look for value in the line, which in my opinion, is the best strategy to use to consistently win. Of course there are other methods but I have had good, steady success with this method.

Also, for example, as you can see I have Dallas as a very slight, slight favorite tonight versus Washington. That doesn't necessarily mean that I think they will win the game. That just means that's the number that I have formulated for that particular game and unless I see line value I don't wager the game. The larger the differential (Line value) between my formulated lines and the actual line increases my opportunity to win the wager.

Good luck tonight and this week.

Loves2kickass · Nov 30, 2017

Pretty much, not at the current line. Need the line to at least move to 3 for me to have a opinion. The Skins are not the play, based on the current line. Boys or nothing.

myles · Nov 30, 2017

Loves2kickass said:
Pretty much, not at the current line. Need the line to at least move to 3 for me to have a opinion. The Skins are not the play, based on the current line. Boys or nothing.

cheersgif

Loves2kickass · Nov 30, 2017

myles said:
cheersgif

w-thumbs!^

Loves2kickass · Dec 1, 2017

Sunday, 12/03/2017

355Minnesota +3 (LEAN) @ 356Atlanta

357New England @ 358Buffalo +9 (AVERAGE WAGER)

367Kansas City @ 368NY Jets +3.5 (AVERAGE WAGER)

371Cleveland +14 (LEAN) @ 372LA Chargers

375NY Giants +8.5 (LEAN) @ 376Oakland

361Houston +7 (AVERAGE WAGER) @ 362Tennessee

brendanjack · Dec 1, 2017

In your current ranking for nfc don't you have Atlanta as 1seed ?

Loves2kickass · Dec 1, 2017

brendanjack said:
In your current ranking for nfc don't you have Atlanta as 1seed ?

As of this week, yes.

myles · Dec 1, 2017

You doing any college this week

Loves2kickass · Dec 2, 2017

myles said:
You doing any college this week

Ill probably do a game or two.

Loves2kickass · Dec 2, 2017

myles said:
You doing any college this week

I'll post them in the CFB forum

gamerecognizegame · Dec 3, 2017

What basic statistics do you use to calculate your projected lines? Like a few of these including Buffalo. Probably play a little ML. Not sure why Vegas opened the line at 8.5 at home but it makes me think I could be missing something. Good luck with the system.

Serbone · Dec 3, 2017

gamerecognizegame said:
What basic statistics do you use to calculate your projected lines? Like a few of these including Buffalo. Probably play a little ML. Not sure why Vegas opened the line at 8.5 at home but it makes me think I could be missing something. Good luck with the system.

He won’t say.
It’s top secret.
But I think he has stated it does not take injuries into consideration. Or situational motivation. Or weather.
GL!

Loves2kickass · Dec 3, 2017

gamerecognizegame said:
What basic statistics do you use to calculate your projected lines? Like a few of these including Buffalo. Probably play a little ML. Not sure why Vegas opened the line at 8.5 at home but it makes me think I could be missing something. Good luck with the system.

I agree with the Buffalo line. The current line of 9 would be close to where I'd have it if the game was played in Foxboro, not on the road. Could be wrong, that's just what my numbers indicate which gives good value with the Bills. Funny how its -9 at some books and -7.5 at others. The books with -7.5 are scared of the Bills being used in teasers, which should tell you something.

Loves2kickass · Dec 3, 2017

Sunday, 12/03/2017 UPDATED

357New England @ 358Buffalo +9 (AVERAGE WAGER)

367Kansas City @ 368NY Jets +3.5 (AVERAGE WAGER)

361Houston +7 (AVERAGE WAGER) @ 362Tennessee

Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17 (Projected Formulated Lines & Wagers)

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