Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 13
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER
As we brace for December, I've started looking at some "late season" systems that filter games out by week or month. This is something I love to do for every sport, not just football. There are some very simple trends across all sports when looking at the beginning or end of the season, especially when getting extreme and looking at the first or last game, but we'll get to that next month.
One system that I've already been following for a few weeks that has brought in substantial, consistent profits involves taking the under in divisional games. When taking the under in any divisional game, at any number and at any point of the season, we already start off in the right direction, as they've hit at a 52.7 percent rate since 2003, per Bet Labs Sports.
However, when focusing only on games in Weeks 9-17 and filtering out lower totals, our winning percentage improves and our return on investment (ROI) goes way up.
Why it works
From a very elementary standpoint, taking the under in division games makes a ton of sense. These teams play each other twice every season and are much more familiar with their players, coaching staffs, and game plans than they are with other teams around the league.
As we can see, this has historically favored the defense. I'm no NFL coaching expert, but it's clearly easier for a defense to figure out and subsequently stop an offense than it is for an offense to figure out and beat a defense.
Though the under still has a winning record in Weeks 1 through 8, the 50.9 percent winning rate is not enough to yield a profit given the juice. Though many of the same pieces of an organization may still be intact from the previous season, teams are bound to change a bit over the summer. The unknown elements play a factor early in the season, but by the second half, an organization will have a much better idea of what to expect from divisional opponents.
The number 43 might appear to be random, and you might be wondering why I chose it, but it's actually a very important number when it comes to betting NFL totals. Since 2003, the total at Pinnacle has closed at 43 on 205 occasions -- the second-most frequent total behind 41, which has occurred 209 times.
In an article last year by my former colleague, David Solar, he found that the most frequent final score total since 2003 was 44. However, since the extra point was moved back, 43 has become increasingly more important. What was once essentially a free point is now slightly more difficult, and it has mattered when it comes to betting on totals.
Week 13 system matches
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
We'll be getting started early this week with a little Thursday Night Football action. Though 85 percent of bettors are taking the over in the early going, the total has dropped from 44.5 to 44 at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore sportsbook, but remains at 44.5 at some other books around the market. This suggests sharp bettors might have the same idea about taking the under.
The Redskins' "over record" of 7-4 is among the best in the league, and with the way the Cowboys' defense has looked as of late, it comes as no surprise that public bettors like the over.
The Pick: Under 44.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome is essentially the Coors Field of the NFL, but don't let that scare you off. A wise man once said that some of the best bets you can make will make you feel uncomfortable.
With 90 percent of bets on the over, this is currently the most lopsided spread of the week. Generally speaking, when the public goes one way, you want to go the other. That is definitely the case here.
The Pick: Under 48
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
With a total of 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, this is the highest total of the week at the time of publication. However, at Pinnacle, this total has dropped from 49.5 to 48.5 since opening -- just like we saw with the Redskins-Cowboys game. Try to shop around and get 49 wherever you can.
The Pick: Under 49
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
I didn't think I was going to have to do too much convincing for people to take the under in a game that Blaine Gabbert is starting for Arizona, but maybe I was wrong. Right now, 86 percent of total bets are on the over.
Obviously, the Rams have had one of the better and most surprising offensive units in the NFL this season. Don't forget about their defense, though, which has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. The first showdown between these teams resulted in a 33-0 L.A. shutout. Perhaps this one won't be as lopsided, but I expect the point total to stay on the low end.
The Pick: Under 45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
This game provides the lowest total of our five matches. At just 43.5, this Monday night division showdown isn't expected to feature many scores. This might surprise some, but the Steelers actually have the best "under record" in the league at 8-3. At 23.5 points per game, their star-studded offense is putting up the fewest points per game since 2012, when receiver Antonio Brown was just a youngster and their lead running back was Jonathan Dwyer.
Though many public bettors may see the offensive superstars playing and expect a flurry of points, that hasn't been the case this season.
The Pick: Under 43.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER
As we brace for December, I've started looking at some "late season" systems that filter games out by week or month. This is something I love to do for every sport, not just football. There are some very simple trends across all sports when looking at the beginning or end of the season, especially when getting extreme and looking at the first or last game, but we'll get to that next month.
One system that I've already been following for a few weeks that has brought in substantial, consistent profits involves taking the under in divisional games. When taking the under in any divisional game, at any number and at any point of the season, we already start off in the right direction, as they've hit at a 52.7 percent rate since 2003, per Bet Labs Sports.
However, when focusing only on games in Weeks 9-17 and filtering out lower totals, our winning percentage improves and our return on investment (ROI) goes way up.
Why it works
From a very elementary standpoint, taking the under in division games makes a ton of sense. These teams play each other twice every season and are much more familiar with their players, coaching staffs, and game plans than they are with other teams around the league.
As we can see, this has historically favored the defense. I'm no NFL coaching expert, but it's clearly easier for a defense to figure out and subsequently stop an offense than it is for an offense to figure out and beat a defense.
Though the under still has a winning record in Weeks 1 through 8, the 50.9 percent winning rate is not enough to yield a profit given the juice. Though many of the same pieces of an organization may still be intact from the previous season, teams are bound to change a bit over the summer. The unknown elements play a factor early in the season, but by the second half, an organization will have a much better idea of what to expect from divisional opponents.
The number 43 might appear to be random, and you might be wondering why I chose it, but it's actually a very important number when it comes to betting NFL totals. Since 2003, the total at Pinnacle has closed at 43 on 205 occasions -- the second-most frequent total behind 41, which has occurred 209 times.
In an article last year by my former colleague, David Solar, he found that the most frequent final score total since 2003 was 44. However, since the extra point was moved back, 43 has become increasingly more important. What was once essentially a free point is now slightly more difficult, and it has mattered when it comes to betting on totals.
Week 13 system matches
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
We'll be getting started early this week with a little Thursday Night Football action. Though 85 percent of bettors are taking the over in the early going, the total has dropped from 44.5 to 44 at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore sportsbook, but remains at 44.5 at some other books around the market. This suggests sharp bettors might have the same idea about taking the under.
The Redskins' "over record" of 7-4 is among the best in the league, and with the way the Cowboys' defense has looked as of late, it comes as no surprise that public bettors like the over.
The Pick: Under 44.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome is essentially the Coors Field of the NFL, but don't let that scare you off. A wise man once said that some of the best bets you can make will make you feel uncomfortable.
With 90 percent of bets on the over, this is currently the most lopsided spread of the week. Generally speaking, when the public goes one way, you want to go the other. That is definitely the case here.
The Pick: Under 48
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
With a total of 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, this is the highest total of the week at the time of publication. However, at Pinnacle, this total has dropped from 49.5 to 48.5 since opening -- just like we saw with the Redskins-Cowboys game. Try to shop around and get 49 wherever you can.
The Pick: Under 49
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
I didn't think I was going to have to do too much convincing for people to take the under in a game that Blaine Gabbert is starting for Arizona, but maybe I was wrong. Right now, 86 percent of total bets are on the over.
Obviously, the Rams have had one of the better and most surprising offensive units in the NFL this season. Don't forget about their defense, though, which has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. The first showdown between these teams resulted in a 33-0 L.A. shutout. Perhaps this one won't be as lopsided, but I expect the point total to stay on the low end.
The Pick: Under 45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
This game provides the lowest total of our five matches. At just 43.5, this Monday night division showdown isn't expected to feature many scores. This might surprise some, but the Steelers actually have the best "under record" in the league at 8-3. At 23.5 points per game, their star-studded offense is putting up the fewest points per game since 2012, when receiver Antonio Brown was just a youngster and their lead running back was Jonathan Dwyer.
Though many public bettors may see the offensive superstars playing and expect a flurry of points, that hasn't been the case this season.
The Pick: Under 43.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
