How to bet Washington-Dallas
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Washington Redskins (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent on Washington
Phil Steele
Washington has taken on the NFL's toughest schedule so far and still has a shot at the playoffs, as they should be favored in four of their last five. In Washington's last three games, they are plus-21 yards per game, and Dallas is minus-176 yards per game without Ezekiel Elliott and linebacker Sean Lee. The Chargers beat them worse on Thanksgiving than the final score would indicate, with a 515-247 yardage edge. While Dallas won by 14 in Washington earlier this season, that was aided by a 21-yard interception return touchdown with 21 seconds remaining. Washington has already won on the road against the Rams and Seahawks, while Dallas has lost its last three games by 20, 28 and 22 points.
ATS pick: Washington
Erin Rynning
The Redskins are still a squad that relies on Kirk Cousins and Jay Gruden as an offensive team. Their defense has overachieved throughout the season but still lack above-average talent. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have stumbled since the loss of their star running back. However, kicker Dan Bailey is back in the fold, while key cog linebacker Sean Lee remains out. The value is with both teams' preferred style and offense.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp
Whatever slim chance either of these teams has for the postseason will be decided on Thursday night. The Redskins face another opponent they should be able to run the ball against, and even with Samaje Perine, the Redskins have been hitting a 45 percent or greater success rate in their last three games on the ground. In their last meeting against the Cowboys in the rain at home, the Redskins recorded a 40 percent successful run and pass rate, but without Sean Lee, Dallas has allowed ridiculously poor pass success rates.
The question becomes, What will the Cowboys' offense do to actually put up 10 points, which they have failed to do in the three games they've been without Ezekiel Elliott? But the issues have been less in the run game, where they are recording a 54 percent success rate, the fourth best of any team. The pass game has tailed off tremendously, dropping from 14th to 25th, and their explosive passing offense has been the worst in the league.
The Redskins' defense is the worst explosive pass defense Dallas has faced since Elliott was suspended, but the Cowboys' offensive line must pass protect better for Dak Prescott against a strong Redskins pass rush.
Lean: Redskins
Mike Clay
Prediction: Washington 24, Dallas 22.5
The pick: Dallas and the over --- DAL +1.5, 45.5
John Parolin's prop bets
292.5 passing yards by Kirk Cousins (O/U -110)
Kirk Cousins has thrown for 293 yards in five of his last nine games, but the Cowboys held Cousins to 263 yards in a Week 8 Dallas win. Cousins still completed two-thirds of his passes in the game but was limited to 6.7 yards per attempt, his third-lowest average this season. So what happened (and can Cousins prevent it from happening again)?
First, Dallas still had Ezekiel Elliott, and he ran for 150 yards against Washington in Week 8. That gave Dallas a 6:38 time-of-possession advantage and kept Cousins on the sideline. But Zeke is still suspended. Next, the Redskins were working through some pretty significant issues at their skill positions. Cousins targeted eight different receivers in the game, and there's no longer doubt swirling around the status of Terrelle Pryor or Jordan Reed. Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson have emerged as the top wide receiver duo, with Vernon Davis serving as a capable Reed replacement. Finally, while the Cowboys did a good job limiting big plays against the Redskins, they've struggled since. Dallas has allowed 16 completions for at least 20 yards since Week 9 -- only three teams have allowed more. Clarity of personnel and some developments on Dallas' side put Cousins in a good spot.
The play: Over
22 points by Cowboys (O/U -110)
Speaking of developments in Dallas, the Cowboys' offense has been a disaster of late. The Cowboys have scored fewer than 10 points in three straight games without the suspended Elliott, and Prescott has been brutal. Prescott has averaged less than 6.0 yards per attempt over the past three weeks, throwing five interceptions without a touchdown.
Can Dallas solve these problems on (technically) a short week? Thursday night games aren't conducive to rapid improvements, even if they played a week ago and Tyron Smith came back on Thanksgiving night. There aren't many more Jekyll-and-Hyde defenses than the Redskins, who have held the Rams, Raiders and Seahawks to 20 points or less, but have been gashed for over 30 by the Eagles, Vikings and Saints (in addition to Dallas in Week 8). But the Cowboys had Zeke, and without him they've shown no signs of being a professional offense. Dak Prescott's QBR has fallen by 55 points without Elliott, a bigger drop-off than Tom Brady to Mitchell Trubisky. Dallas ranks dead last in points per game and offensive efficiency over the past three weeks. Even doubling their average in that span leaves them well short -- they have to prove it without Zeke before they can be trusted.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Washington Redskins (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent on Washington
Phil Steele
Washington has taken on the NFL's toughest schedule so far and still has a shot at the playoffs, as they should be favored in four of their last five. In Washington's last three games, they are plus-21 yards per game, and Dallas is minus-176 yards per game without Ezekiel Elliott and linebacker Sean Lee. The Chargers beat them worse on Thanksgiving than the final score would indicate, with a 515-247 yardage edge. While Dallas won by 14 in Washington earlier this season, that was aided by a 21-yard interception return touchdown with 21 seconds remaining. Washington has already won on the road against the Rams and Seahawks, while Dallas has lost its last three games by 20, 28 and 22 points.
ATS pick: Washington
Erin Rynning
The Redskins are still a squad that relies on Kirk Cousins and Jay Gruden as an offensive team. Their defense has overachieved throughout the season but still lack above-average talent. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have stumbled since the loss of their star running back. However, kicker Dan Bailey is back in the fold, while key cog linebacker Sean Lee remains out. The value is with both teams' preferred style and offense.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp
Whatever slim chance either of these teams has for the postseason will be decided on Thursday night. The Redskins face another opponent they should be able to run the ball against, and even with Samaje Perine, the Redskins have been hitting a 45 percent or greater success rate in their last three games on the ground. In their last meeting against the Cowboys in the rain at home, the Redskins recorded a 40 percent successful run and pass rate, but without Sean Lee, Dallas has allowed ridiculously poor pass success rates.
The question becomes, What will the Cowboys' offense do to actually put up 10 points, which they have failed to do in the three games they've been without Ezekiel Elliott? But the issues have been less in the run game, where they are recording a 54 percent success rate, the fourth best of any team. The pass game has tailed off tremendously, dropping from 14th to 25th, and their explosive passing offense has been the worst in the league.
The Redskins' defense is the worst explosive pass defense Dallas has faced since Elliott was suspended, but the Cowboys' offensive line must pass protect better for Dak Prescott against a strong Redskins pass rush.
Lean: Redskins
Mike Clay
Prediction: Washington 24, Dallas 22.5
The pick: Dallas and the over --- DAL +1.5, 45.5
John Parolin's prop bets
292.5 passing yards by Kirk Cousins (O/U -110)
Kirk Cousins has thrown for 293 yards in five of his last nine games, but the Cowboys held Cousins to 263 yards in a Week 8 Dallas win. Cousins still completed two-thirds of his passes in the game but was limited to 6.7 yards per attempt, his third-lowest average this season. So what happened (and can Cousins prevent it from happening again)?
First, Dallas still had Ezekiel Elliott, and he ran for 150 yards against Washington in Week 8. That gave Dallas a 6:38 time-of-possession advantage and kept Cousins on the sideline. But Zeke is still suspended. Next, the Redskins were working through some pretty significant issues at their skill positions. Cousins targeted eight different receivers in the game, and there's no longer doubt swirling around the status of Terrelle Pryor or Jordan Reed. Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson have emerged as the top wide receiver duo, with Vernon Davis serving as a capable Reed replacement. Finally, while the Cowboys did a good job limiting big plays against the Redskins, they've struggled since. Dallas has allowed 16 completions for at least 20 yards since Week 9 -- only three teams have allowed more. Clarity of personnel and some developments on Dallas' side put Cousins in a good spot.
The play: Over
22 points by Cowboys (O/U -110)
Speaking of developments in Dallas, the Cowboys' offense has been a disaster of late. The Cowboys have scored fewer than 10 points in three straight games without the suspended Elliott, and Prescott has been brutal. Prescott has averaged less than 6.0 yards per attempt over the past three weeks, throwing five interceptions without a touchdown.
Can Dallas solve these problems on (technically) a short week? Thursday night games aren't conducive to rapid improvements, even if they played a week ago and Tyron Smith came back on Thanksgiving night. There aren't many more Jekyll-and-Hyde defenses than the Redskins, who have held the Rams, Raiders and Seahawks to 20 points or less, but have been gashed for over 30 by the Eagles, Vikings and Saints (in addition to Dallas in Week 8). But the Cowboys had Zeke, and without him they've shown no signs of being a professional offense. Dak Prescott's QBR has fallen by 55 points without Elliott, a bigger drop-off than Tom Brady to Mitchell Trubisky. Dallas ranks dead last in points per game and offensive efficiency over the past three weeks. Even doubling their average in that span leaves them well short -- they have to prove it without Zeke before they can be trusted.
The play: Under
