Selecting NFL plays ATS with better QB matchup

skyline69 · Nov 30, 2017

This is a thread relating to serbone's posting RE: the better qb. The goal is to achieve 60% ATS thru end of season. My selections and opinions only. The selections will surely vary week to week. For record keeping I will start today at 0-0, and I will use the current line at time of posting. All plays for 1 unit unless noted.

11-30-17 Cousins over Prescott. Current line Wash -1.5

Loves2kickass · Nov 30, 2017

"The better QB".....in YOUR opinion? Based on Football Outsiders, which Serbone used in his previous post as a reference......Cousins is ranked 12th and Prescott 16th (DYAR) and actually Prescott has a better QBR (66.4 - 60.08). That's a QB advantage worthy of a pick? Even Serbone stated in previous post it was a no play but I guess it's your thread so post who you would like. Prime example of a problem with this idea. Grabbing at straws.....GL

Biz · Nov 30, 2017

L2KA is right.

Unless you have specific guidelines on what qualifies as shitty QB or team, it's purely subjective.

It's like the alleged 10-2 record. No official picks before the game, then after we backfit info to bolster the premise. This entire exercise gets more absurd by the day.

It was good vs shitty, not play the team that I think has the better QB.

This game doesn't really qualify. Dak isn't shitty, his team sucks with the people missing. So do we play against shitty QB OR shitty team vs "good" QB??

i thought this was about playing against shitty QBs, Dak isn't shitty. But it's your thread and you can do as you like.

croaker · Nov 30, 2017

There are a lot of factors that affect QB play as well, injuries to other players etc.

A good objective measure for QB skill is completion %. Zak is 64% and Cousins is 66%, so not really a big difference.

Cousins can make the better throws and has more experience, so I would give clear edge to Cousins, but Zak is not a horrible QB. Zak has been getting shade all week so may be a little oversold.

Both teams have full week's rest and Garrett should have been able to put together a realistic game plan for Zak. May be value for Dallas in this spot but close either way. IMO bet for rooting interest only.

exploited17 · Nov 30, 2017

IMO...these games would be the ones with a significant Qb advantage over another QB or team
Maybe we can get a consensus instead of just BETTER QB...because these two are relatively equal I think
Chiefs-3.5 Alex Smith over Mccown
Pats-8.5 Brady over Taylor
TB -2 Winston over Hundley
Titans- 7 Mariotta over Savage
Chargers - 13.5 Rivers over Kizer
Rams- 7 Geoff over Gabbert
Oakland -9 Carr over Smith
Steelers -5.5 Roethlisberger over Daulton
I will use the lines for these games at 10:00 AM Sunday. I think these are significant differences in QB. I will track what happens. skyline69 can do as he pleases with his picks. I think my list is fair

If any cares to weigh on on these games or add or take away something we will come away with the teams where there is a significant advantage at QB and then I will post final lines at 10:00 AM Sunday

croaker · Nov 30, 2017

Carr over Geno and Rivers over Kizer looks like a clear QB advantage.
IMO they others are closer and not enough to outweigh other factors.

These would be good test of Serbone's theory as 1. the lines are quite high, 2. there is big QB skill differential and 3. would probably attract sharp action just from line alone. Oakland under -10 and Chargers under -14 look interesting.

exploited17 · Nov 30, 2017

I think they are all significant advantages. But are we going for that or just playing against really bad QBS? In which case we would play against Smith....Gabbert....Hundley......Kizer and Savage but NOT Taylor and Daulton....So let us first decide is it really bad QBs or a significant advantage

Serbone · Nov 30, 2017

Loves2kickass said:
"The better QB".....in YOUR opinion? Based on Football Outsiders, which Serbone used in his previous post as a reference......Cousins is ranked 12th and Prescott 16th (DYAR) and actually Prescott has a better QBR (66.4 - 60.08). That's a QB advantage worthy of a pick? Even Serbone stated in previous post it was a no play but I guess it's your thread so post who you would like. Prime example of a problem with this idea. Grabbing at straws.....GL

I’ve written several times Daks rating crashes without Zeke.
He is not the same without play action with Zeke. Dak looks good then, sure, but without him he’s a below average QB can’t throw the 20-30 yd strike. Dallas makes it to Super Bowl last year with Cousins. If Skins has a few healthy OL I’d play Skins large tonight.
But pass.

chonce · Nov 30, 2017

It is all subjective. Even if you cite QBR or other metrics, by choosing which ones to emphasize it is subjective.

I personally would not cite this one as a good QB vs Bad QB matchup, since Prescott has been good up until Zeke's injury. He has been horrid since but with such a small sample size, I don't think we see a huge advantage. but we can all decide what matchups/QBs are "good" in our own way.

I think Indy, Ari, NYG, NYJ, Cin, CLE and Hou all qualify as BAD QBS vs either good teams or good QBs (Jax doesn't have a good QB, but a good team. OAK's QB hasn't been good, but "is good," usually. I personally think that card will probably do OK. I am not a believer in betting on good QBs is, per se, a good bet.

But again, no two people will have the same opinion. And we wouldn't find consensus on how to measure it using metrics. I surely don't value QBR, for instance.

cashducats · Nov 30, 2017

Maybe dak is just a below avg qb when he doesn’t have the best rb and the best offensive line in the league?

Loves2kickass · Nov 30, 2017

Cheddar · Nov 30, 2017

This angle is so comical when it is the opinion of the OP as to which QB is worse

exploited17 · Nov 30, 2017

Well...maybe we should dump the idea and get back to picking games whatever way works for whoever is betting

skyline69 · Nov 30, 2017

Wow, I just don't get some of you people. The first game and week hasn't even started and some of you are already beating it down and criticizing, BEFORE THE FIRST WEEK IS EVEN OVER !!! I don't know if it's immaturity or, some of you are just fuckin miserable people. No shit the selections are subjective. Let me make it easy for you, I simply look at the QB's and ask myself who would I rather have on my team. This is not about stats, QB ratings or anything else. I assessed the game tonite and under the current situation I decided I would rather put my money on Cousins to win. I've seen enough of Prescott without Elliot to run the ball. If Elliot were in the lineup, and the Cowboys were not in their current funk, I would have canceled this game out. Plain and simple. I look for the better QB, better team, and better coach, and who I think will win the game. It doesn't get any easier then that. If some of you still don't get it, then ask yourself, who would you want on your team, Brady or Tyrod Taylor, Stafford or Flacco, Phil Rivers or Deshon Kizer. Get it now ?? I do try and stay away from double digit favs, but every selection is based on its own merits. I tried to explain that this a good starting point for me, and reduces the time it takes to make the wagers. It has been 21-12 ATS the last 3 weeks, but for this thread its 0-0 to start. I don't know what the rest of the season numbers will be, but for christ's sake I'm gonna find out. And lastly, if some of you can't grasp this simple concept, don't show your ignorance, just don't open the fucking thread.

Michelangelo · Nov 30, 2017

skyline, That was well put. You defined it pretty simply although it is still a subjective measure.

Why don't you be the arbiter of who is the best vs the not best.

List the games for us with the lines at the time you post and we'll see how this concept does.

Like you said, give the damned concept a chance.

skyline69 · Nov 30, 2017

Michelangelo, That's exactly what I plan to do. I plan on going game by game on the schedule, and in my OPINION will list who I think is the better QB. I don't wager on every game, but as I said this is how I start the new week out. The last 3 weeks were 21-12 for 63%. I'm gonna stick it out till the end of the year. I already know that if it's less than 50% all the assholes will be busting my balls, on the flip side if it produces plus units the same ball busters will be nowhere to be found. The irony is I only posted this to be part of this forum that tries to help people win, go figure.

skyline69 · Nov 30, 2017

Biz, It's not about playing against shitty QB's, although it works out that way sometimes because the fact is that some teams simply have a shitty QB. It's more along the lines of picking the better QB of the 2 opposing each other. I don't know about the 10-2 record you are referring too. It's not my place to question someone when they make a reference to a W/L record. For my thread I tracked the last 3 weeks and it was 21-12. However, I didn't post the selections in advance so you'll just have to take my word for it, thats up to you. I will start tonight at 0-0 taking the skins -1.5. The rest of the season will be documented for all to see.

For example, this is what it looked like last week:

Detroit, Stafford over Keenum L
Chargers, Rivers over Prescott Win
Redskins, Cousins over Manning Win
Bengals, Dalton over Kizer Win
Eagles, Wentz over Trubisky Win ( Not subjective IMO on that one, I think everyone would have selected Wentz)
Patriots, Brady over Moore Win (again wouldn't everybody select Brady ??)
KC, Smith over Taylor L
Falcons, Ryan over Fitzpatrick Win
Panthers, Newton over Mccown Win (very lucky cover by Carolina, but a cashed ticket is a win)
49'ers, Wilson over Beathard Win ( I assume everyone feels Wilson was the better QB in that game)
Rams, Brees over Goff L
Cardinals, Took Bortles over Gabbert L ( mistake in judgement on my part, to me Bortles is one of the worst 3 QB's in the league. Won't do it again)
Raiders, Carr over Lynch Win
Steelers, Big Ben over Hundley L
Ravens, Flacco over Savage L (Push for me @7 with my local. Mostly saw -7.5 and -8 out here so I marked a loser for record keeping purposes)
Colts, I just passed on this one because Mariota not playing well, and Brisset is capable of putting up a good game.

Thats 9-6 for last week. As you can see some of these were real easy to pick, ie: Brady, Rivers, Wentz, Newton, Big Ben, well you get the picture.

Loves2kickass · Nov 30, 2017

0-1 Dont listen to me....or Biz lol

skyline69 · Nov 30, 2017

Loves2kickass said:
"The better QB".....in YOUR opinion? Based on Football Outsiders, which Serbone used in his previous post as a reference......Cousins is ranked 12th and Prescott 16th (DYAR) and actually Prescott has a better QBR (66.4 - 60.08). That's a QB advantage worthy of a pick? Even Serbone stated in previous post it was a no play but I guess it's your thread so post who you would like. Prime example of a problem with this idea. Grabbing at straws.....GL

"Grabbing at straws" I guess you're entitled to your opinion. But, let me ask you, isn't handicapping in general the same "grabbing at straws" ?? Think about it, who here has sufficient access and discipline to score 60% plus annually, and make a good living beating the game ?? Here's a list of better QB's listed from top to bottom. I'll venture to say that anyone with half a brain who has his finger on the pulse of the NFL will agree with my top 7 or 8, just maybe in a different order. I'm sure you understand the rankings are subject to change on a weekly basis. This is what see this week 13 NFL

1. Brady
1. Rodgers
3.Wentz
4. R. Wilson
5. Brees
6. Rivers
7.Roethlisberger
8.Stafford
9. Newton
10. M. Ryan
11. Goff
12. Keenum
13.Carr
14. Cousins
15. Manning
16. A. Smith
17. Prescott
18. Mariota
19. Brissett
20. Flacco
21. Dalton
22. T. Taylor
23. J. Mccown
24. Fitzpatrick
25. Trubisky
26. Beathard
27. Moore
28. Savage
29. Bortles
30. Bortles
31. Kizer
32. Hundley
.

skyline69 · Nov 30, 2017

Loves2kickass said:
0-1 Dont listen to me....or Biz lol

So, I guess the season is over ?? Should just lay down after being down 0-1 !! What an asshole.

Selecting NFL plays ATS with better QB matchup

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