Best bets on Week 13 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's Week 13 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay
have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Atlanta had two cornerbacks injured last week, and they remain questionable here. Minnesota led Detroit 27-10 and won by seven, taking a knee at the Detroit 5-yard line at the end. Atlanta opened up 4-4 and could easily have been 2-6, but the Falcons have looked more like last year's Super Bowl squad lately with home wins by 20 and 14 and a road win over a desperate Seahawks team. Minnesota has had one of the NFL's top defenses the last two seasons, but this year the Vikings have a potent offense to match (they have actually scored more points than Atlanta). The Vikings' defense is holding foes to 52 yards per game below their season average, and the offense is gaining 41 yards per game more than their foes normally allow. Interestingly, Case Keenum has a quarterback rating of 96.2, and Matt Ryan is right behind him at 95.7 which is a far cry from last year's 119.0. The Vikings have won six in a row ATS and are the more complete team, while Atlanta is 6-15 ATS as a home favorite.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: Atlanta has gotten back on track in large part thanks to their deep passing offense to Julio Jones in recent weeks. This game will be a big test for the Falcons, as their schedule has been severely light, especially when considering that they faced the Cowboys and Seahawks recently with neither team close to being full strength. After carving up better defenses, in the Redskins and Rams, the Vikings should have success against a Falcons defense that still has holes, especially defending the run.
Play: Vikings +3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 26, Atlanta 23
The pick: Minnesota and the over -- MIN +3, 47.5
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: Angle players will point out that New England is just 2-8 ATS as a division away favorite, and the Bills have covered four of their last five as a home 'dog. Trumping that is the fact that the Patriots have covered their last three trips to Buffalo winning by two touchdowns per game. Buffalo has been outgained in all but two games and is minus-56 yards per game with a subpar offense (No. 26) and defense (No. 25). Over the last four weeks, New England has the No. 2 offense in the NFL, but more importantly, the No. 8 defense. New England is getting into its groove with seven straight wins (allowing just 13 points per game) and having covered five in a row (18.4-point margin of victory). Prior to their upset of Kansas City last week, the Bills had lost their previous three by 27 points per game. Buffalo has had the turnover edge in every one of its wins. Tom Brady has a TD-INT ratio of 55-6 the last two seasons, so the Patriots are not about to give the Bills the turnovers they need to survive. I like to ride streaks and will continue to lean with the Patriots here, as they've had ATS runs of four or more on three occasions over the past two years.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Warren Sharp's take: The Bills thrive when winning the turnover battle but struggle when they don't. Sandwiched between the tremendous offenses of the Patriots, Chargers and Saints, the Bills were able to hold the weak Chiefs offense to just 10 points. They were blown out by at least 30 points in the other two games. The Patriots' strength defensively has been in the red zone, where they currently rank eighth in my custom red zone metric and are allowing just 40 percent conversions the last three weeks. However, New England isn't great in the red zone this year, ranking just 17th in conversion rate. They simply take a lot of trips (second most) and also score on larger plays. The Bills' defense ranks fourth worst in my red zone metric and has allowed a 69 percent conversion rate at home.
Pick: Lean Patriots
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 29, Buffalo 21
The pick: New England and the over -- NE -8.5, 48.5
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent San Francisco
Phil Steele's take: San Francisco quarterback C.J. Beathard was injured late last week, and that opened the door for the much-anticipated debut of Jimmy Garoppolo. All Garoppolo did was lead the 49ers to a touchdown on his one possession. Chicago was embarrassed by the mighty Philadelphia Eagles last week, but goes from facing the best team in the NFL on the road to playing one of the weakest at home. Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS as a home 'dog, but in its lone role as favorite, the Bears lost to the "Rodger-less" Packers. These two played here last season, and Chicago won 26-6 with a 326-147 yardage edge. Five of San Francisco's eight losses came by three points or fewer. Chicago has the defensive edge allowing just 328 yards per game and holding its foes to 21 yards per game below their season average. The 49ers allow 374 yards per game, and opponents gain 36 yards per game above their season average. I feel the Bears are the stronger team, and while my computer has them winning by eight, I will pass here, as they've lost their last five as a home favorite.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The 49ers look forward to the Garoppolo era starting this Sunday, and he should provide a potent upgrade. Of course, Kyle Shanahan runs a capable offense under the direction of the right signal-caller. Meanwhile, the Bears continue to misfire under the direction of bad head coach John Fox. The Bears are most likely playing out the string for the last days under the Fox regime. The fact the meandering Bears are favored is simply a gift.
Pick: 49ers
Warren Sharp's take: If the 49ers were trying to win games, they would have started Garoppolo last week, coming out of a bye week against a Seahawks team with a shredded secondary. But they are not trying to win games this season. So they took another loss for draft position and now square off against a Bears team which, at 3-8, obviously has its sights now set on the draft as well. However, Fox has less job security and the Bears are the better defensive team. The upgrade that Garoppolo should be able to provide is massive, so there may be value on the 49ers side, but there is a lot of uncertainty.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Chicago 21, San Francisco 15
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI -3, 40.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 27 of 44 passes for 283 yards at Atlanta last week. Tampa was down 27-6, trailed only 27-20 and had the ball at the Atlanta 18, but was stopped on fourth-and-1 before Atlanta tacked on a touchdown with 1:33 left. While the Bucs won two of their last three, they are actually minus-120 yards per game their last four games. For the season, their defense has allowed foes 64 yards per game more than they come in averaging. Aaron Rodgers was injured versus Minnesota, and counting that game, they are 1-5 since, but three of the losses are to the Vikings, Saints and Steelers -- three of the NFL's best teams.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Warren Sharp's take: After getting shut out at home against the No. 1 defense of the Ravens, the Packers went on the road and put up 28 against the No. 4 defense of the Steelers. As surprising as that was, they won't face the same caliber of defense in this game, as the Buccaneers' defense ranks third worst despite playing a middle-of-the-road schedule. While Brett Hundley has not looked good through most of his starts in Green Bay this season, it's impossible to completely overlook the fact that he has played every game against top-half pass defenses (No. 5 Saints, No. 14 Lions, No. 15 Bears, No. 2 Ravens and No. 7 Steelers). The Packers should look much better offensively against the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, it's hard to forecast what Jameis Winston will bring for the Bucs' offense, although he surely would not be thrown in there if he weren't fully healthy and ready go to.
Pick: Lean Packers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 23, Tampa Bay 21
The pick: Green Bay +2.5
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Houston destroyed Tennessee 57-14 in Week 4 with Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus still on the field before their season-ending injuries. Houston is coming off a Monday loss at Baltimore, but did have a 20-17 first-down edge in that game. Tennessee is 7-4, but its last four wins have been by four points or fewer, and on the season, the Titans are being outgained. The Titans were fortunate to get back into the game last weekend in Indianapolis, as they recovered a fumble at their 2-yard line trailing by 10 points in the second half. Tennessee would go on to get the final 14 points in the four-point victory. Marcus Mariota has been subpar for a good portion of the season with just an 8-10 TD-INT ratio and being limited on the ground with a hamstring issue. While Tennessee is in the playoff mix, can you trust the Titans to cover a seven-point spread?
ATS pick: Lean on Houston
Warren Sharp's take: The Titans' offense has been an abject failure, but they still are in position to make the playoffs and win the AFC South (which speaks to the caliber of teams in the AFC). Tennessee desperately needs to insert Derrick Henry more into the run game, as his average of 5.2 yards per carry on early downs (with a 56 percent success rate) is one of the best rates in the NFL -- and substantially better than DeMarco Murray and his 1.8 yards per carry, 31 percent success rate. Mismanaging the snaps isn't a surprise, given this coaching staff, but Mariota's regression this season is a surprise. The Titans' passing game ranks just 24th. The Texans have played substantially better the last two weeks, as compared to Tom Savage's first two starts. Against this Titans defense, they should be able to move the ball better than they did against the Ravens' and Rams' defenses.
Pick: Lean Texans
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 25, Houston 21
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST +6.5, 43
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Miami
Phil Steele's take: Denver started Paxton Lynch last week, but Trevor Siemian came off the bench to lead a pair of touchdown drives in the final quarter. All three of Denver's wins came early, when he was entrenched as the starter. Denver has the No. 2 defense in the NFL, holding foes to 62 yards per game below their season average. Denver is the better team, but the Broncos are 0-5 on the road this year, losing by 15 points per game. I like the fact that Siemian is back under center to go along with the Broncos' superior defense. While I prefer to play on streaks, both are sliding at the moment with Denver dropping seven straight and Miami five in a row. I will go with the better team, and statistically it is not even close. Despite their 3-8 record, the Broncos are actually plus-31 yards per game on the season, while Miami is minus-60 yards per game with its 4-7 mark.
ATS pick: Lean on Denver
Warren Sharp's take: Denver's offense has struggled this entire season, but the Broncos were worse since Week 9 without Siemian. Even against a bad Raiders defense, this offense was terrible. The Broncos recently fired their OC, and Bill Musgrave replaced him last week. He couldn't do much with Lynch, who clearly appears not ready (still), but this offense should look much better this week for three reasons: Siemian, Musgrave and the Dolphins' pass defense. Meanwhile, Miami should be able to take an approach offensively like it did against the Panthers -- who allowed the Dolphins to post a 60 percent success rate on passes and a 58 percent success rate on rushes -- getting the ball out quickly and using a short passing offense.
Play: Denver -1.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Denver 21, Miami 20
The pick: Miami and the over -- MIA +1.5, 38.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at New York Jets
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Buffalo had a 13-1 first-down edge in Arrowhead last weekend at halftime, which was shocking, considering that the Bills' defense had allowed 135 points the previous three weeks. While Kansas City was the Super Bowl favorite after five weeks, which included wins over the Patriots and Eagles, the Chiefs have now won just one contest over their past seven games. The Jets have had fourth-quarter leads versus the Patriots, Falcons and Panthers. Josh McCown just threw for 300 yards versus the mighty Carolina defense, but the Jets' six-game win streak as a home 'dog ended on some late scores in a game in which the Jets had a 391-299 yardage edge. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule during the past four weeks but were plus-3 yards per game, while the Chiefs have faced four lightweights and were minus-32 yards per game. The Jets get another home 'dog win streak started.
ATS pick: New York
Warren Sharp's take: After beating the Patriots in the first game of the season and marching out to a 5-0 record, the Chiefs have hit a major downhill skid. Meanwhile, while the Jets haven't produced many wins on the board, they've been extremely competitive in every single game since Week 2. The Darrelle Revis revenge game should be an interesting subplot to this game, and the Chiefs have had reasonable success holding mediocre-to-poor offenses they've faced recently (such as the Broncos, Giants and Bills) to below 20 points. It's unlikely the Chiefs will get their run game going on the road in New York, so this game will likely come down to how Alex Smith performs through the air. While technically still a top-10 offense, the Chiefs are unlikely to fare better than other top-10 offenses, such as the Patriots or Falcons, both of whom failed to top 25 points.
Play: Jets
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Jets 22, Kansas City 21
The pick: New York Jets +3.5
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Colts
Phil Steele's take: Indianapolis led Tennessee for a good portion of last week's game before a key fumble at the Titans' 2-yard line gave Tennessee the momentum to mount a comeback victory. Last week, I went against something I have played on all year, and that was the up-and-down Jaguars. They have followed every good performance with a bad one, if you count the bye week as absorbing the bad week. Jacksonville had outgained its previous four foes by 185 yards per game prior to Blaine Gabbert and the mediocre Cardinals having a 334-219 yardage edge. The only explanation was that it was the Jaguars' down week. The matchup I like best here is Jacksonville's ferocious defensive front, which has recorded 41 sacks versus a Colts offensive line that has allowed 46 sacks including eight last week. The Colts are minus-80 yards per game this year, but can you actually lay more than a touchdown with the Jaguars? The Jaguars have seven wins this year, and only once did they win by fewer than 12 (average win of 20.2 points per game).
ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Erin Rynning's take: Look for the Jaguars to bounce back, as they've done all season after their loss in Arizona last week. The Jaguars dominated and completely controlled the Colts in the first meeting 27-0. They'll possess those same matchup edges again. They sacked the Colts 10 times in their prior meeting, as Colts center Ryan Kelly is expected to miss this contest. The Colts' defense continues to be injury-plagued, as they now lose upstart cornerback Rashaan Melvin.
Pick: Jaguars
Warren Sharp's take: The strength of the Colts is their run defense, which plays right into the strength of the Jaguars' offense, with their run offense. This game will be decided on the other side of the ball, as the Colts' offense cannot afford to punt consistently and allow the defense to get tired out. After pasting the Colts 27-0 earlier in the season, the Jaguars reeled off three consecutive wins before dropping a game to Gabbert in Arizona. The problem for the Colts' offense has been executing inside the red zone, and despite focusing on that during their bye week, the Colts were once again terrible against the Titans last week.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 25, Indianapolis 13
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX -9.5, 41
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Lions
Phil Steele's take: Baltimore is coming off a Monday night game, and Detroit has extra time off following a Thanksgiving Day contest against Minnesota. Baltimore has won its home games by a 24-16 average, while Detroit is 4-1 on the road this season with a win over Minnesota. The Lions are minus-44 yards per game at home and only minus-4 yards per game on the road. Neither team is a legitimate contender, as both teams are minus-26 yards per game overall. Baltimore has the edge on defense, allowing just 306 yards per game. Detroit has the edge at quarterback with Matthew Stafford completing 62 percent of his passes with a 21-6 TD-INT ratio, while Joe Flacco is at 66 percent but with a 9-11 TD-INT ratio. I rate these teams even, and most of their combined wins are against bad teams. Baltimore has three shutouts already this season, and they also have a top-five unit on special teams. I would look to go against the winner of this game next week, but would favor Baltimore by three here.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The Lions once again must face a very strong run defense in the Ravens. It marks the eighth top-10 run defense they've faced this year, the most of any team in the NFL. The Lions' run offense ranks 29th, and they should attempt to pass even more often this week, but they realize the risk of getting too one-dimensional against this strong Ravens defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens should have more success running the ball this week against the Lions, which should help, as the Lions have the most difficult pass defense (14th) the Ravens have faced since Week 8. The list of starting QBs the Ravens have faced since Week 5 is remarkable: Savage, Hundley, Mariota, Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky and EJ Manuel. They also faced DeShone Kizer and Blake Bortles earlier in the season.
Pick: Lean Lions
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 21, Detroit 20
The pick: Detroit and the over -- DET +3, 41
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-14)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: Los Angeles opened up 0-4 but is on a 5-2 run since, which is good enough to get back into contention in the AFC West. The Chargers clobbered Dallas on Thanksgiving in their most recent contest with a 515-247 yardage edge. Cleveland is much better than their 0-11 record, as they are just minus-8 yards per game, which is No. 17 in the NFL. Last season, Cleveland got its lone win of the season on a snowy day in December vs. the warm weather Chargers despite being outgained by 105 yards (Chargers missed two field goals in the fourth quarter). The Browns continue to find ways to lose, as they are now 2-10 ATS and even outgained Cincinnati in a 14-point home loss last week. Showing how the Browns are better than their record, they have lost only three games by more than this week's 14-point spread all year. Los Angeles has little home-field edge this year, and there is a large contingent of Browns Backers in Southern California. I still lean with the red-hot Chargers here, however, as they have won their previous two games by 30 and 22 points.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers appear to be on track and potentially looking toward winning the AFC West if things break right for them. Their defense is much improved, but their Achilles' heel is their 30th-ranked run defense. And while the Chargers have looked better since their bye week, this matchup will be the easiest run defense the Browns have faced all season. On the other side, the Browns' run defense is phenomenal, and that could become a problem for a Chargers run offense which is too predictable and runs the ball on first down far too often (with little success). If the Chargers come out passing on early downs, this game won't be as close. But if the Chargers run the ball too often on early downs, the Browns could make this one closer.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 27, Cleveland 13
The pick: Los Angeles and the under -- LAC -14, 42.5
New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-8)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Raiders
Phil Steele's take: Last week, I felt that Oakland was one of the top six teams in the AFC despite its 4-6 mark heading into action. The Raiders led Denver 21-0 and had a 259-66 yardage edge at that point (14-2 first downs at half). They gave up two scores in the fourth quarter, but their 348 yards of offense happened to be the third-best output versus the Broncos' defense all season (only the Patriots and Eagles had better performances). The Giants came into the season thinking they were a Super Bowl contender, but those expectations quickly went on the back-burner following a disastrous start. Their lone victories in 2017 have come as large 'dogs in Denver and at home against the Chiefs. If you have Derek Carr on your fantasy team this is a definite week to use him. The Giants' defense allows foes 42 yards above their season average, while Oakland is averaging 399 yards per game over the last four weeks. The only negative for the Raiders coming in will be a shorthanded receiving unit that has Michael Crabtree suspended and Amari Cooper potentially missing with a concussion. Oakland was only a seven-point favorite early on before the announcement of Eli Manning's benching (current line is at 8.5). With Geno Smith lining up under center for the visitor, I think Oakland not only has a great shot of delivering the cover here, but also claiming the AFC West title at season's end.
ATS pick: Lean on Oakland
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants gave us the drama of the week by benching Manning. Ownership and coaches can say they want to look at their younger talent, but it doesn't hurt their draft stock to be moving to Smith followed by Davis Webb. As such, it's difficult to determine what effort we'll get from the Giants. Their win over the Chiefs at home seemed like it was their big game of the year, and in Washington, the team once again played far worse than their talent suggests. The Giants' offensive line is beat up, and as lukewarm as the Raiders are, their passing offense should be in a good spot, given the Giants placing key CB Janoris Jenkins on IR.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 24, New York Giants 18
The pick: New York Giants +8.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Saints were without their top two cornerbacks last week against the Rams, which contributed to their eight-game winning streak ending. No doubt New Orleans has the better offense. I am wondering which version of the Saints defense will show up in this one, however. In their first two games versus Sam Bradford and Brady, and last two games versus Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff, the Saints' defense has allowed 474 yards per game. In the middle, they allowed 255 yards per game versus Miami, Detroit, Green Bay (no Rodgers), Chicago, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Carolina comes into the Superdome having put up 80 points during the past two weeks. They have also held opponents to a league-best 59 yards per game below their season average. Both teams in this key division battle are 8-3, and earlier this year, an 0-2 Saints team handed it to a 2-0 Panthers team on the road by a 34-13 score. Cam Newton was still not 100 percent back then but has resembled his 2015 Superman version lately. New Orleans used to be a great home favorite, going 18-3-1 from 2011 to 2013, but Las Vegas made the Saints pay an extra price since, with that mark dropping down to just 5-16-1. Carolina is 7-1 as a division away 'dog since 2012, and I feel that they are the stronger team.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Warren Sharp's take: The Panthers are one of the NFL's surprises at 8-3 right now, as are the Saints. But the Saints have played the more difficult schedule, and the Panthers' larger wins (over the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Lions, Bills and 49ers) have one thing in common: opponents who don't run the football well. Against teams who run the football well, the Panthers are 2-3, with an early-season win over a then-terrible Patriots defense and a somewhat lucky win over the Falcons. The Saints may get back the services of their cornerback tandem who both missed last week's game. If they do, I'll likely lean to the Saints, as the Panthers struggle to run the ball (apart from Newton) and they haven't faced a top-10 pass defense since Week 6, when the Eagles handled them on a short week in Carolina.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 26, Carolina 21
The pick: New Orleans and the under -- NO -4, 48
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: The Cardinals took advantage of playing Jacksonville in their down week. These two met across the pond in London in late October with the Rams getting a 33-0 shutout win with a 28-10 first-down edge. I thought the Cardinals were a playoff contender at the start of the season, but injuries to key players on both sides of the ball have derailed their chances. They are still plus-25 yards per game the past four weeks, while the potent Rams are at plus-47 yards per game. The Rams are plus-115 yards per game at home, but minus-43 yards per game on the road despite a 4-2 ATS mark. The Rams have a large edge on offense with Goff versus Gabbert at quarterback and Gurley versus Adrian Peterson (averaging just 3.4 yards per carry) at running back. Los Angeles also has our No. 1-rated special teams versus the Cardinals' No. 29 unit. Arizona has lost six games by an average of 14 points per game, with only one loss by fewer than nine. The Rams' eight wins are by 19 points per game with only three coming by fewer than 10. Arizona is just 3-7-1 ATS this season and has yet to cover a game after a win, while Gabbert is now 10-33 as a starter in the NFL.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Warren Sharp's take: The last time these two teams met was in London, and the Cardinals' offense could not do anything. Carson Palmer was knocked out of the game, and Drew Stanton looked completely unfit. But, after exploding for 27 points against the strong Jaguars defense last week, there is optimism in Arizona that the Cardinals could get revenge on the Rams. Last week, the Rams did many things well, as Goff posted a 96 passer rating and Gurley gained 4.4 yards per carry. But the Rams were terrible on third down, converting just 21 percent of the time, and they ended just 2 of 12 drives with a TD. The key for Arizona needs to be on defense, as their defense held the Jaguars to 3.8 yards per play last week with just a 38 percent success rate. That said, it's unlikely the Cardinals can hold Goff to a 58 passer rating with just 4.8 yards per attempt, so they will need a better offensive effort at home to keep it close.
Pick: Lean Cardinals
Erin Rynning' take: Again, the Rams have flashed huge improvements with their offensive game. Still, the defense under the tutelage of Wade Philips cannot be understated. The Rams have held the opposition to 18.7 points per game. When the unit has shown weakness it's been against the run game. Fortunately, the Cardinals continue to be insufficient out of their backfield. The Cardinals still possess the talent on defense to slow down Goff. The unit ranks 11th in the NFL, allowing five yards per play, as they readjust after their rough first meeting overseas.
Pick: Under
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 26, Arizona 21
The pick: Arizona and the over -- ARZ +7, 45
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's Week 13 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay
have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Atlanta had two cornerbacks injured last week, and they remain questionable here. Minnesota led Detroit 27-10 and won by seven, taking a knee at the Detroit 5-yard line at the end. Atlanta opened up 4-4 and could easily have been 2-6, but the Falcons have looked more like last year's Super Bowl squad lately with home wins by 20 and 14 and a road win over a desperate Seahawks team. Minnesota has had one of the NFL's top defenses the last two seasons, but this year the Vikings have a potent offense to match (they have actually scored more points than Atlanta). The Vikings' defense is holding foes to 52 yards per game below their season average, and the offense is gaining 41 yards per game more than their foes normally allow. Interestingly, Case Keenum has a quarterback rating of 96.2, and Matt Ryan is right behind him at 95.7 which is a far cry from last year's 119.0. The Vikings have won six in a row ATS and are the more complete team, while Atlanta is 6-15 ATS as a home favorite.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: Atlanta has gotten back on track in large part thanks to their deep passing offense to Julio Jones in recent weeks. This game will be a big test for the Falcons, as their schedule has been severely light, especially when considering that they faced the Cowboys and Seahawks recently with neither team close to being full strength. After carving up better defenses, in the Redskins and Rams, the Vikings should have success against a Falcons defense that still has holes, especially defending the run.
Play: Vikings +3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 26, Atlanta 23
The pick: Minnesota and the over -- MIN +3, 47.5
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: Angle players will point out that New England is just 2-8 ATS as a division away favorite, and the Bills have covered four of their last five as a home 'dog. Trumping that is the fact that the Patriots have covered their last three trips to Buffalo winning by two touchdowns per game. Buffalo has been outgained in all but two games and is minus-56 yards per game with a subpar offense (No. 26) and defense (No. 25). Over the last four weeks, New England has the No. 2 offense in the NFL, but more importantly, the No. 8 defense. New England is getting into its groove with seven straight wins (allowing just 13 points per game) and having covered five in a row (18.4-point margin of victory). Prior to their upset of Kansas City last week, the Bills had lost their previous three by 27 points per game. Buffalo has had the turnover edge in every one of its wins. Tom Brady has a TD-INT ratio of 55-6 the last two seasons, so the Patriots are not about to give the Bills the turnovers they need to survive. I like to ride streaks and will continue to lean with the Patriots here, as they've had ATS runs of four or more on three occasions over the past two years.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Warren Sharp's take: The Bills thrive when winning the turnover battle but struggle when they don't. Sandwiched between the tremendous offenses of the Patriots, Chargers and Saints, the Bills were able to hold the weak Chiefs offense to just 10 points. They were blown out by at least 30 points in the other two games. The Patriots' strength defensively has been in the red zone, where they currently rank eighth in my custom red zone metric and are allowing just 40 percent conversions the last three weeks. However, New England isn't great in the red zone this year, ranking just 17th in conversion rate. They simply take a lot of trips (second most) and also score on larger plays. The Bills' defense ranks fourth worst in my red zone metric and has allowed a 69 percent conversion rate at home.
Pick: Lean Patriots
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 29, Buffalo 21
The pick: New England and the over -- NE -8.5, 48.5
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent San Francisco
Phil Steele's take: San Francisco quarterback C.J. Beathard was injured late last week, and that opened the door for the much-anticipated debut of Jimmy Garoppolo. All Garoppolo did was lead the 49ers to a touchdown on his one possession. Chicago was embarrassed by the mighty Philadelphia Eagles last week, but goes from facing the best team in the NFL on the road to playing one of the weakest at home. Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS as a home 'dog, but in its lone role as favorite, the Bears lost to the "Rodger-less" Packers. These two played here last season, and Chicago won 26-6 with a 326-147 yardage edge. Five of San Francisco's eight losses came by three points or fewer. Chicago has the defensive edge allowing just 328 yards per game and holding its foes to 21 yards per game below their season average. The 49ers allow 374 yards per game, and opponents gain 36 yards per game above their season average. I feel the Bears are the stronger team, and while my computer has them winning by eight, I will pass here, as they've lost their last five as a home favorite.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The 49ers look forward to the Garoppolo era starting this Sunday, and he should provide a potent upgrade. Of course, Kyle Shanahan runs a capable offense under the direction of the right signal-caller. Meanwhile, the Bears continue to misfire under the direction of bad head coach John Fox. The Bears are most likely playing out the string for the last days under the Fox regime. The fact the meandering Bears are favored is simply a gift.
Pick: 49ers
Warren Sharp's take: If the 49ers were trying to win games, they would have started Garoppolo last week, coming out of a bye week against a Seahawks team with a shredded secondary. But they are not trying to win games this season. So they took another loss for draft position and now square off against a Bears team which, at 3-8, obviously has its sights now set on the draft as well. However, Fox has less job security and the Bears are the better defensive team. The upgrade that Garoppolo should be able to provide is massive, so there may be value on the 49ers side, but there is a lot of uncertainty.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Chicago 21, San Francisco 15
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI -3, 40.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 27 of 44 passes for 283 yards at Atlanta last week. Tampa was down 27-6, trailed only 27-20 and had the ball at the Atlanta 18, but was stopped on fourth-and-1 before Atlanta tacked on a touchdown with 1:33 left. While the Bucs won two of their last three, they are actually minus-120 yards per game their last four games. For the season, their defense has allowed foes 64 yards per game more than they come in averaging. Aaron Rodgers was injured versus Minnesota, and counting that game, they are 1-5 since, but three of the losses are to the Vikings, Saints and Steelers -- three of the NFL's best teams.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Warren Sharp's take: After getting shut out at home against the No. 1 defense of the Ravens, the Packers went on the road and put up 28 against the No. 4 defense of the Steelers. As surprising as that was, they won't face the same caliber of defense in this game, as the Buccaneers' defense ranks third worst despite playing a middle-of-the-road schedule. While Brett Hundley has not looked good through most of his starts in Green Bay this season, it's impossible to completely overlook the fact that he has played every game against top-half pass defenses (No. 5 Saints, No. 14 Lions, No. 15 Bears, No. 2 Ravens and No. 7 Steelers). The Packers should look much better offensively against the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, it's hard to forecast what Jameis Winston will bring for the Bucs' offense, although he surely would not be thrown in there if he weren't fully healthy and ready go to.
Pick: Lean Packers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 23, Tampa Bay 21
The pick: Green Bay +2.5
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Houston destroyed Tennessee 57-14 in Week 4 with Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus still on the field before their season-ending injuries. Houston is coming off a Monday loss at Baltimore, but did have a 20-17 first-down edge in that game. Tennessee is 7-4, but its last four wins have been by four points or fewer, and on the season, the Titans are being outgained. The Titans were fortunate to get back into the game last weekend in Indianapolis, as they recovered a fumble at their 2-yard line trailing by 10 points in the second half. Tennessee would go on to get the final 14 points in the four-point victory. Marcus Mariota has been subpar for a good portion of the season with just an 8-10 TD-INT ratio and being limited on the ground with a hamstring issue. While Tennessee is in the playoff mix, can you trust the Titans to cover a seven-point spread?
ATS pick: Lean on Houston
Warren Sharp's take: The Titans' offense has been an abject failure, but they still are in position to make the playoffs and win the AFC South (which speaks to the caliber of teams in the AFC). Tennessee desperately needs to insert Derrick Henry more into the run game, as his average of 5.2 yards per carry on early downs (with a 56 percent success rate) is one of the best rates in the NFL -- and substantially better than DeMarco Murray and his 1.8 yards per carry, 31 percent success rate. Mismanaging the snaps isn't a surprise, given this coaching staff, but Mariota's regression this season is a surprise. The Titans' passing game ranks just 24th. The Texans have played substantially better the last two weeks, as compared to Tom Savage's first two starts. Against this Titans defense, they should be able to move the ball better than they did against the Ravens' and Rams' defenses.
Pick: Lean Texans
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 25, Houston 21
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST +6.5, 43
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Miami
Phil Steele's take: Denver started Paxton Lynch last week, but Trevor Siemian came off the bench to lead a pair of touchdown drives in the final quarter. All three of Denver's wins came early, when he was entrenched as the starter. Denver has the No. 2 defense in the NFL, holding foes to 62 yards per game below their season average. Denver is the better team, but the Broncos are 0-5 on the road this year, losing by 15 points per game. I like the fact that Siemian is back under center to go along with the Broncos' superior defense. While I prefer to play on streaks, both are sliding at the moment with Denver dropping seven straight and Miami five in a row. I will go with the better team, and statistically it is not even close. Despite their 3-8 record, the Broncos are actually plus-31 yards per game on the season, while Miami is minus-60 yards per game with its 4-7 mark.
ATS pick: Lean on Denver
Warren Sharp's take: Denver's offense has struggled this entire season, but the Broncos were worse since Week 9 without Siemian. Even against a bad Raiders defense, this offense was terrible. The Broncos recently fired their OC, and Bill Musgrave replaced him last week. He couldn't do much with Lynch, who clearly appears not ready (still), but this offense should look much better this week for three reasons: Siemian, Musgrave and the Dolphins' pass defense. Meanwhile, Miami should be able to take an approach offensively like it did against the Panthers -- who allowed the Dolphins to post a 60 percent success rate on passes and a 58 percent success rate on rushes -- getting the ball out quickly and using a short passing offense.
Play: Denver -1.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Denver 21, Miami 20
The pick: Miami and the over -- MIA +1.5, 38.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at New York Jets
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Buffalo had a 13-1 first-down edge in Arrowhead last weekend at halftime, which was shocking, considering that the Bills' defense had allowed 135 points the previous three weeks. While Kansas City was the Super Bowl favorite after five weeks, which included wins over the Patriots and Eagles, the Chiefs have now won just one contest over their past seven games. The Jets have had fourth-quarter leads versus the Patriots, Falcons and Panthers. Josh McCown just threw for 300 yards versus the mighty Carolina defense, but the Jets' six-game win streak as a home 'dog ended on some late scores in a game in which the Jets had a 391-299 yardage edge. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule during the past four weeks but were plus-3 yards per game, while the Chiefs have faced four lightweights and were minus-32 yards per game. The Jets get another home 'dog win streak started.
ATS pick: New York
Warren Sharp's take: After beating the Patriots in the first game of the season and marching out to a 5-0 record, the Chiefs have hit a major downhill skid. Meanwhile, while the Jets haven't produced many wins on the board, they've been extremely competitive in every single game since Week 2. The Darrelle Revis revenge game should be an interesting subplot to this game, and the Chiefs have had reasonable success holding mediocre-to-poor offenses they've faced recently (such as the Broncos, Giants and Bills) to below 20 points. It's unlikely the Chiefs will get their run game going on the road in New York, so this game will likely come down to how Alex Smith performs through the air. While technically still a top-10 offense, the Chiefs are unlikely to fare better than other top-10 offenses, such as the Patriots or Falcons, both of whom failed to top 25 points.
Play: Jets
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Jets 22, Kansas City 21
The pick: New York Jets +3.5
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Colts
Phil Steele's take: Indianapolis led Tennessee for a good portion of last week's game before a key fumble at the Titans' 2-yard line gave Tennessee the momentum to mount a comeback victory. Last week, I went against something I have played on all year, and that was the up-and-down Jaguars. They have followed every good performance with a bad one, if you count the bye week as absorbing the bad week. Jacksonville had outgained its previous four foes by 185 yards per game prior to Blaine Gabbert and the mediocre Cardinals having a 334-219 yardage edge. The only explanation was that it was the Jaguars' down week. The matchup I like best here is Jacksonville's ferocious defensive front, which has recorded 41 sacks versus a Colts offensive line that has allowed 46 sacks including eight last week. The Colts are minus-80 yards per game this year, but can you actually lay more than a touchdown with the Jaguars? The Jaguars have seven wins this year, and only once did they win by fewer than 12 (average win of 20.2 points per game).
ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Erin Rynning's take: Look for the Jaguars to bounce back, as they've done all season after their loss in Arizona last week. The Jaguars dominated and completely controlled the Colts in the first meeting 27-0. They'll possess those same matchup edges again. They sacked the Colts 10 times in their prior meeting, as Colts center Ryan Kelly is expected to miss this contest. The Colts' defense continues to be injury-plagued, as they now lose upstart cornerback Rashaan Melvin.
Pick: Jaguars
Warren Sharp's take: The strength of the Colts is their run defense, which plays right into the strength of the Jaguars' offense, with their run offense. This game will be decided on the other side of the ball, as the Colts' offense cannot afford to punt consistently and allow the defense to get tired out. After pasting the Colts 27-0 earlier in the season, the Jaguars reeled off three consecutive wins before dropping a game to Gabbert in Arizona. The problem for the Colts' offense has been executing inside the red zone, and despite focusing on that during their bye week, the Colts were once again terrible against the Titans last week.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 25, Indianapolis 13
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX -9.5, 41
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Lions
Phil Steele's take: Baltimore is coming off a Monday night game, and Detroit has extra time off following a Thanksgiving Day contest against Minnesota. Baltimore has won its home games by a 24-16 average, while Detroit is 4-1 on the road this season with a win over Minnesota. The Lions are minus-44 yards per game at home and only minus-4 yards per game on the road. Neither team is a legitimate contender, as both teams are minus-26 yards per game overall. Baltimore has the edge on defense, allowing just 306 yards per game. Detroit has the edge at quarterback with Matthew Stafford completing 62 percent of his passes with a 21-6 TD-INT ratio, while Joe Flacco is at 66 percent but with a 9-11 TD-INT ratio. I rate these teams even, and most of their combined wins are against bad teams. Baltimore has three shutouts already this season, and they also have a top-five unit on special teams. I would look to go against the winner of this game next week, but would favor Baltimore by three here.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The Lions once again must face a very strong run defense in the Ravens. It marks the eighth top-10 run defense they've faced this year, the most of any team in the NFL. The Lions' run offense ranks 29th, and they should attempt to pass even more often this week, but they realize the risk of getting too one-dimensional against this strong Ravens defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens should have more success running the ball this week against the Lions, which should help, as the Lions have the most difficult pass defense (14th) the Ravens have faced since Week 8. The list of starting QBs the Ravens have faced since Week 5 is remarkable: Savage, Hundley, Mariota, Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky and EJ Manuel. They also faced DeShone Kizer and Blake Bortles earlier in the season.
Pick: Lean Lions
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 21, Detroit 20
The pick: Detroit and the over -- DET +3, 41
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-14)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: Los Angeles opened up 0-4 but is on a 5-2 run since, which is good enough to get back into contention in the AFC West. The Chargers clobbered Dallas on Thanksgiving in their most recent contest with a 515-247 yardage edge. Cleveland is much better than their 0-11 record, as they are just minus-8 yards per game, which is No. 17 in the NFL. Last season, Cleveland got its lone win of the season on a snowy day in December vs. the warm weather Chargers despite being outgained by 105 yards (Chargers missed two field goals in the fourth quarter). The Browns continue to find ways to lose, as they are now 2-10 ATS and even outgained Cincinnati in a 14-point home loss last week. Showing how the Browns are better than their record, they have lost only three games by more than this week's 14-point spread all year. Los Angeles has little home-field edge this year, and there is a large contingent of Browns Backers in Southern California. I still lean with the red-hot Chargers here, however, as they have won their previous two games by 30 and 22 points.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers appear to be on track and potentially looking toward winning the AFC West if things break right for them. Their defense is much improved, but their Achilles' heel is their 30th-ranked run defense. And while the Chargers have looked better since their bye week, this matchup will be the easiest run defense the Browns have faced all season. On the other side, the Browns' run defense is phenomenal, and that could become a problem for a Chargers run offense which is too predictable and runs the ball on first down far too often (with little success). If the Chargers come out passing on early downs, this game won't be as close. But if the Chargers run the ball too often on early downs, the Browns could make this one closer.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 27, Cleveland 13
The pick: Los Angeles and the under -- LAC -14, 42.5
New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-8)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Raiders
Phil Steele's take: Last week, I felt that Oakland was one of the top six teams in the AFC despite its 4-6 mark heading into action. The Raiders led Denver 21-0 and had a 259-66 yardage edge at that point (14-2 first downs at half). They gave up two scores in the fourth quarter, but their 348 yards of offense happened to be the third-best output versus the Broncos' defense all season (only the Patriots and Eagles had better performances). The Giants came into the season thinking they were a Super Bowl contender, but those expectations quickly went on the back-burner following a disastrous start. Their lone victories in 2017 have come as large 'dogs in Denver and at home against the Chiefs. If you have Derek Carr on your fantasy team this is a definite week to use him. The Giants' defense allows foes 42 yards above their season average, while Oakland is averaging 399 yards per game over the last four weeks. The only negative for the Raiders coming in will be a shorthanded receiving unit that has Michael Crabtree suspended and Amari Cooper potentially missing with a concussion. Oakland was only a seven-point favorite early on before the announcement of Eli Manning's benching (current line is at 8.5). With Geno Smith lining up under center for the visitor, I think Oakland not only has a great shot of delivering the cover here, but also claiming the AFC West title at season's end.
ATS pick: Lean on Oakland
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants gave us the drama of the week by benching Manning. Ownership and coaches can say they want to look at their younger talent, but it doesn't hurt their draft stock to be moving to Smith followed by Davis Webb. As such, it's difficult to determine what effort we'll get from the Giants. Their win over the Chiefs at home seemed like it was their big game of the year, and in Washington, the team once again played far worse than their talent suggests. The Giants' offensive line is beat up, and as lukewarm as the Raiders are, their passing offense should be in a good spot, given the Giants placing key CB Janoris Jenkins on IR.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 24, New York Giants 18
The pick: New York Giants +8.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Saints were without their top two cornerbacks last week against the Rams, which contributed to their eight-game winning streak ending. No doubt New Orleans has the better offense. I am wondering which version of the Saints defense will show up in this one, however. In their first two games versus Sam Bradford and Brady, and last two games versus Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff, the Saints' defense has allowed 474 yards per game. In the middle, they allowed 255 yards per game versus Miami, Detroit, Green Bay (no Rodgers), Chicago, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Carolina comes into the Superdome having put up 80 points during the past two weeks. They have also held opponents to a league-best 59 yards per game below their season average. Both teams in this key division battle are 8-3, and earlier this year, an 0-2 Saints team handed it to a 2-0 Panthers team on the road by a 34-13 score. Cam Newton was still not 100 percent back then but has resembled his 2015 Superman version lately. New Orleans used to be a great home favorite, going 18-3-1 from 2011 to 2013, but Las Vegas made the Saints pay an extra price since, with that mark dropping down to just 5-16-1. Carolina is 7-1 as a division away 'dog since 2012, and I feel that they are the stronger team.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Warren Sharp's take: The Panthers are one of the NFL's surprises at 8-3 right now, as are the Saints. But the Saints have played the more difficult schedule, and the Panthers' larger wins (over the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Lions, Bills and 49ers) have one thing in common: opponents who don't run the football well. Against teams who run the football well, the Panthers are 2-3, with an early-season win over a then-terrible Patriots defense and a somewhat lucky win over the Falcons. The Saints may get back the services of their cornerback tandem who both missed last week's game. If they do, I'll likely lean to the Saints, as the Panthers struggle to run the ball (apart from Newton) and they haven't faced a top-10 pass defense since Week 6, when the Eagles handled them on a short week in Carolina.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 26, Carolina 21
The pick: New Orleans and the under -- NO -4, 48
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: The Cardinals took advantage of playing Jacksonville in their down week. These two met across the pond in London in late October with the Rams getting a 33-0 shutout win with a 28-10 first-down edge. I thought the Cardinals were a playoff contender at the start of the season, but injuries to key players on both sides of the ball have derailed their chances. They are still plus-25 yards per game the past four weeks, while the potent Rams are at plus-47 yards per game. The Rams are plus-115 yards per game at home, but minus-43 yards per game on the road despite a 4-2 ATS mark. The Rams have a large edge on offense with Goff versus Gabbert at quarterback and Gurley versus Adrian Peterson (averaging just 3.4 yards per carry) at running back. Los Angeles also has our No. 1-rated special teams versus the Cardinals' No. 29 unit. Arizona has lost six games by an average of 14 points per game, with only one loss by fewer than nine. The Rams' eight wins are by 19 points per game with only three coming by fewer than 10. Arizona is just 3-7-1 ATS this season and has yet to cover a game after a win, while Gabbert is now 10-33 as a starter in the NFL.
ATS pick: Lean on Los Angeles
Warren Sharp's take: The last time these two teams met was in London, and the Cardinals' offense could not do anything. Carson Palmer was knocked out of the game, and Drew Stanton looked completely unfit. But, after exploding for 27 points against the strong Jaguars defense last week, there is optimism in Arizona that the Cardinals could get revenge on the Rams. Last week, the Rams did many things well, as Goff posted a 96 passer rating and Gurley gained 4.4 yards per carry. But the Rams were terrible on third down, converting just 21 percent of the time, and they ended just 2 of 12 drives with a TD. The key for Arizona needs to be on defense, as their defense held the Jaguars to 3.8 yards per play last week with just a 38 percent success rate. That said, it's unlikely the Cardinals can hold Goff to a 58 passer rating with just 4.8 yards per attempt, so they will need a better offensive effort at home to keep it close.
Pick: Lean Cardinals
Erin Rynning' take: Again, the Rams have flashed huge improvements with their offensive game. Still, the defense under the tutelage of Wade Philips cannot be understated. The Rams have held the opposition to 18.7 points per game. When the unit has shown weakness it's been against the run game. Fortunately, the Cardinals continue to be insufficient out of their backfield. The Cardinals still possess the talent on defense to slow down Goff. The unit ranks 11th in the NFL, allowing five yards per play, as they readjust after their rough first meeting overseas.
Pick: Under
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 26, Arizona 21
The pick: Arizona and the over -- ARZ +7, 45
