Clemson beats Bama

jwhite · Dec 3, 2017

I will be back with an extensive write up but I will be playing the Tigers now and advise you too as well if you like the Tigers. Think this is the best number to get. This is also not saying Bama stinks or any other such nonsense. They are solid and will be much better in a month when they are allowed to heal up (more on that later—I don’t think it’s all that fair to grant them a spot based on potential). However, fwiw I do think Bama is one of the 4 best teams come playoff time. Does that mean they earned their way in...no way. They were granted it. But to be honest, they probably deserve to be granted the spot more than anyone else—meaning I don’t think anyone was screwed to allow them in. Frankly also it will make for the best matchups. Anyway, good luck to all.

I will be playing the Tigers huge as I fully expect them to win. I am actually more confident they win this game than the previous two. FYI, I thought they would cover but probably lose the first game and win last year but thought it was like a 51-49 type scenario and gave them the edge strictly because of Deshaun. Now I think Bama has lost all timers on D and still have a deficien qb (relatively speaking). See him as a Tebow clone. Tough, good leader, mobile, winner. But extremely limited throwing. Well I said my real write up was going to come later so I am checking out for now but will provide one (or at least my first draft) very soon. Maybe tomorrow.

Good luck all! Also lean Oklahoma right now but haven’t made up my mind.

exploited17 · Dec 3, 2017

I'm on Georgia. More diverse attack and better D. Oklahoma is all flash. I'm on Clemson. They won't get me again. Not at even money anyway

cloverleaf · Dec 3, 2017

Personally, I'm looking forward to your extensive write up. on this game.

Looking forward to why you think Vegas is favoring #4 Alabama over #1 Clemson.

What does Vegas sportsbooks know? Again, waiting on your "extensive write up."

Codebreaker · Dec 3, 2017

College betting 101. Always be aware of the lower ranked team being favored over the higher ranked team.

Clemson is simply the better team and you are getting +2 points. When Vegas opened Bama -1 1/2 that was it. I actually laughed and said thank you I don't need to hear anymore. The only write up is Clemson holding Bama to less then 10 points while scoring over 25.

Teasing Clemson to +8 1/2 and Baker Mayfield to +7 should be against the law, you are printing money. Take both teams on the ML and your printing press will be working over time.:toast:

Does it get any easier?puff_>>

jwhite · Dec 3, 2017

You don’t need to wait on my write up for that. Vegas has Bama favored the same reason they had them favored against Clemson the last two years, or Auburn this year, or by two and a half tds or whatever vs miss st, etc. There are a ton of people who don’t watch games that just listen to ESPN’s “experts” tell them how great Bama is. How they are the the best team of all time every year. How they could beat the Browns, etc. That is why they are favored. They are the best program of the last 10 years and people will blindly bet them. The last 3 years though, things have changed. Bama’s d got worse than last year (not saying they are bad this year, they are really good) because they lost Williams, foster, etc etc etc. Clemson’s d got better. Bama stayed the same at qb obviousoy but their offense in general is worse because they lost Lane’s creativity. Clemson got significantly worse at qb from a pure all around talent perspective but their offense may be better in some ways. Bryant doesn’t turn it over like Deshaun did and Etienne is the truth at rb—better pure rb than gallman could ever hope to be (but not as good at pass blocking). Clemson also miss Williams and leggett but renfro has murdered Bama, and Higgins, mcloud, Higgins, Overton, and Powell are a better overall unit. Bama’s kicking game is better. But anyway, to answer your question, none of that has much to do with Vegas making bama a favorite. Clemson is just a tiny school from Sc that is new to the national scene and most people think they are a fluke. So of course Bama is favored. And I think Vegas will take all the money they can get on Bama and not move the line all that much unless some mega sharp or sharps lay big $ on Clemson. Regardless, clemson has played Bama dead even the past two games and I think have gotten better in some areas this year. Your coach straight up said they lost the game bc hurts can’t throw but for some reason only known to him refused to let the lefty freshmen play. That plus all the talent they lost on d was not replaced at same level; therefore, I think clemson d and veneables will key on run and make hurts throw the ball which he isn’t very good at. I think clemson’s more balanced offense and better play calling wil lead to a game much like the auburn game. I think clemson wins like 23-20 or something.

jwhite · Dec 4, 2017

Also saw an interesting stat, clemson has been underdog in every playoff game they have played and is 3-1 with one close loss and cover.

kouga · Dec 4, 2017

jwhite said:
Also saw an interesting stat, clemson has been underdog in every playoff game they have played and is 3-1 with one close loss and cover.

In the postseason, Clemson is 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU as an underdog since 2012. Only SU loss was against Alabama ( 45-40 ) in 2016 but they`ve covered the spread as a 6.5 underdog.

Alabama as a favorite ( 4 points or less ) is 9-1 SU since 2005.

r.a. · Dec 4, 2017

Respectfully disagree as Alabama will be a lot healthier than they were at the end of the regular season. Saban will be on a mission to prove that the committee was right. Something that seems to be underplayed is Clemson's pathetic kicking game. Against Miami it was very apparent they don't have a placekicker or a punter. Alabama will be my biggest wager of the year.

Codebreaker · Dec 4, 2017

Not to be a Richard, I just don't see Bama sustaining drives vs Clemson's defense. It's so obvious, Clemson is going to force J Hurts to throw the ball down the field. A Bama bet is on J Hurts doing some thing he has failed to do in 11 games. Besides that Bama has played no one this year. I had Miss St covering and they darn near beat Bama. I had AUB over Bama for a nice ML win. Neither team is anywhere close to Clemson.

Bama only scored 14 points. Bama was 3 of 11 on 3rd down. They were 1 for 4 on 4th down. J Hurts was 13 of 23. Bama did run the ball for 211 yards, but 85 of it was J Hurts. Bama only possessed the ball for 23 mins vs AUB 36 mins. One of Bama's scores came after a turnover deep in AUB territory.

Clemson is a 2 point dog, Vegas know how to scam suckers. Saben talked AUB up in the pregame at the SEC champ game. I though they had beaten the Patriots in the SuperBowl. He knew what he was selling. I need to buy into a Vegas sports book. I have a ton of South Beach money from last week.

When the Bama fans are streaming out of the Clemson game in the 3rd Q I'm going to start the chant "Run Forrest Run"

r.a. · Dec 4, 2017

Codebreaker said:
Not to be a Richard, I just don't see Bama sustaining drives vs Clemson's defense. It's so obvious, Clemson is going to force J Hurts to throw the ball down the field. A Bama bet is on J Hurts doing some thing he has failed to do in 11 games. Besides that Bama has played no one this year. I had Miss St covering and they darn near beat Bama. I had AUB over Bama for a nice ML win. Neither team is anywhere close to Clemson.

Bama only scored 14 points. Bama was 3 of 11 on 3rd down. They were 1 for 4 on 4th down. J Hurts was 13 of 23. Bama did run the ball for 211 yards, but 85 of it was J Hurts. Bama only possessed the ball for 23 mins vs AUB 36 mins. One of Bama's scores came after a turnover deep in AUB territory.

Clemson is a 2 point dog, Vegas know how to scam suckers. Saben talked AUB up in the pregame at the SEC champ game. I though they had beaten the Patriots in the SuperBowl. He knew what he was selling. I need to buy into a Vegas sports book. I have a ton of South Beach money from last week.

When the Bama fans are streaming out of the Clemson game in the 3rd Q I'm going to start the chant "Run Forrest Run"

I'd love to book all those Monopoly money bets you make ... hell, i'd be able to buy Park Place ten times over ...

Codebreaker · Dec 4, 2017

Whatever, I'm on Clemson

Better jump on Bama now the Alabama inbreeds are going to drive the number to -3 or -4 and I'll put more Monopoly money on it.

tmader7 · Dec 4, 2017

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

~T~

mws · Dec 4, 2017

cloverleaf said:
Personally, I'm looking forward to your extensive write up. on this game.

Looking forward to why you think Vegas is favoring #4 Alabama over #1 Clemson.

What does Vegas sportsbooks know? Again, waiting on your "extensive write up."

Here's what Vegas sportsbooks know: They know what their power ratings were four months ago, four weeks ago, and four days ago.

Four weeks ago they had Bama rated as seven points better than Clemson.

Four days ago they had Bama rated as four points better than Clemson.

Sportsbooks have a long history of turning a profit while being conservative in how they adjust their power ratings.

1osubucks · Dec 5, 2017

#RollTide$$

Serbone · Dec 6, 2017

Will Bama be healthier than they were last couple games? I think they were out 4 LBs and now all but one will be back. I think. And key DBs played banged up the last couple.

Bryant is a good QB but cannot throw nearly as well as Watson. ACC is not as strong as last yr.

I lean to Bama with a month to get healthy and for Saban to plan. Not suggesting I am BIG on Bama.

thekeyman · Dec 6, 2017

Don't need no write up,don't need no vegas magic numbers,don't need to hear about who Bama played,don't need to hear about shit

BAMA WINS THIS GAME

8ate · Dec 6, 2017

Sabin wins this year, he owns college football, accept this..

cloverleaf · Dec 6, 2017

mws said:
Here's what Vegas sportsbooks know: They know what their power ratings were four months ago, four weeks ago, and four days ago.

Four weeks ago they had Bama rated as seven points better than Clemson.

Four days ago they had Bama rated as four points better than Clemson.

Sportsbooks have a long history of turning a profit while being conservative in how they adjust their power ratings.

+1

REDEYE · Dec 7, 2017

I like Clemson in this game. They're better. .alot more Bama fans and bettors out there then Clemson has.. that influences the line..

SABRWinners · Dec 8, 2017

r.a. said:
Respectfully disagree as Alabama will be a lot healthier than they were at the end of the regular season. Saban will be on a mission to prove that the committee was right. Something that seems to be underplayed is Clemson's pathetic kicking game. Against Miami it was very apparent they don't have a placekicker or a punter. Alabama will be my biggest wager of the year.

Clemson's kicking game is not good.

However, I'm very interested in how you divined that from the Miami game. Alex Spence made his only field goal, from 46 yards, and made all of his extra points. On kickoffs, Miami had a long of 26, with an average of 21.2. More often than not, Miami started its drives after kickoffs short of the 25 yard line.

Perhaps you're just full of shit.

Clemson beats Bama

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