BOWL Thread and Week 15

ofred · Dec 3, 2017

Recent weeks in CFB, along with a World Series play have recovered about 88% of my losses(most of them from Week 12). Have won the Army-Navy game going back at least the last 4 years, and this year I really like:

5* Army/ Navy- under 48 This game has gone under this number, or on the 48, for the last 11 years. And this year, Navy's QB, Zach Abbey, is not the passer that other Navy QBs have been in recent years. Abey is a very capable runner, and can break tackles, although he is not particularly elusive or fast. The Army QB is even worse. But of course the biggest factor here is that both teams KNOW exactly how to defend an offense that is so similar to their own. No dynamic passing game here to worry about. Offensively, both teams take advantage of their opponents that usually have one week to prep for an offense they won't see all year. It can be difficult. They gouge them for 4-6 yards carry after carry, sometimes breaking a bigger one, occasionally getting stopped for a little or nothing. In my observation of this game in the past those 4-6 yard runs become more like 2-4 yard runs, and more TFLs and no gains than usual. Run, run, run, and the clock whittles down, often resulting in punts, FGs, and the occasional long, time-sucking drive for a TD. Played at Lincoln Financial Field, on grass, although it's in good shape.

ofred · Dec 3, 2017

o fred said:
Recent weeks in CFB, along with a World Series play have recovered about 88% of my losses(most of them from Week 12). Have won the Army-Navy game going back at least the last 4 years, and this year I really like:

5* Army/ Navy- under 48 This game has gone under this number, or on the 48, for the last 11 years. And this year, Navy's QB, Zach Abbey, is not the passer that other Navy QBs have been in recent years. Abey is a very capable runner, and can break tackles, although he is not particularly elusive or fast. The Army QB is even worse. But of course the biggest factor here is that both teams KNOW exactly how to defend an offense that is so similar to their own. No dynamic passing game here to worry about. Offensively, both teams take advantage of their opponents that usually have one week to prep for an offense they won't see all year. It can be difficult. They gouge them for 4-6 yards carry after carry, sometimes breaking a bigger one, occasionally getting stopped for a little or nothing. In my observation of this game in the past those 4-6 yard runs become more like 2-4 yard runs, and more TFLs and no gains than usual. Run, run, run, and the clock whittles down, often resulting in punts, FGs, and the occasional long, time-sucking drive for a TD. Played at Lincoln Financial Field, on grass, although it's in good shape.

Meant to say the Army QB is even worse as a passer(about 30%, and his passes are ducks for sure)

ofred · Dec 5, 2017

Taggart leaving the Ducks. It's not that they can't find a decent replacement, but that some of their recruiting class will now decommit. Especially the Florida guys. This could also effect the Ducks' performance in their upcoming bowl game. Was liking them at -6 or -7, then went to 8. Probably coming down again.

REDEYE · Dec 5, 2017

Ducks should go after Lane Kiffin.. good fit in my mind. He might be the one guy that can keep the recruits here

ofred · Dec 5, 2017

RED EYE said:
Ducks should go after Lane Kiffin.. good fit in my mind. He might be the one guy that can keep the recruits here

Kiffin can recruit and is very good OC, but unless he's matured, he is a historically flaky head coach. Also, I don't see him staying long either..if he succeeds. No ties to the Pacific NW. Leavitt might be the best hire, but there are mixed reports about whether he is going with Taggart or not.

REDEYE · Dec 6, 2017

o fred said:
Kiffin can recruit and is very good OC, but unless he's matured, he is a historically flaky head coach. Also, I don't see him staying long either..if he succeeds. No ties to the Pacific NW. Leavitt might be the best hire, but there are mixed reports about whether he is going with Taggart or not.

I don't know. seems like a place he could stay for awhile just to prove he can. Its not like he's going back to USC , or probably the SEC .. NFL probably not ready for at least a few years. . it was the first name that came to mind

ofred · Dec 8, 2017

Lean on JMU/ Weber under 42. Read somewhere that JMU has given up only 5 TDs this year that weren't from garbage time, special teams or TOs. (11 total TDs). Weber has a very good QB, but he hasn't seen a D like this, and on the road in front of a big crowd. Possibly 2 OL missing for Weber. Also, JMU has very solid QB as a game manager, but their playmakers are not what they were last year. And Weber was one of the better Ds in the Big Sky. If this line was 46-47, I'd have more on it, but 42 is low for a college game.

ofred · Dec 8, 2017

5* Oregon -7 (-125) Oregon players overwhelmingly wanted Cristobal to be their next head coach, over 70 players signing a petition to make it so. It's now so. More to come...

ofred · Dec 8, 2017

o fred said:
5* Oregon -7 (-125) Oregon players overwhelmingly wanted Cristobal to be their next head coach, over 70 players signing a petition to make it so. It's now so. More to come...

Early bowl games do not usually excite teams like Boise and Oregon, although Oregon didn't go at all last year. I got a feeling this Duck team will play at a more enthusiastic level now that Cristobal is staying. Practices will be spirited. The team leaders have come out and have expressed their appreciation of his coaching abilities and relationships with players. Oregon is also likely to keep a couple of other top assistant coaches even if Leavitt leaves after the bowl game. You might be tired of hearing it from me, but Oregon is a totally different team with Herbert at QB. It seems to make the run game and even the D play up. The Ducks excellent OL can handle a good Boise DL, and keep intact their great balance of run-pass that makes their offense so dangerous.

Both teams are recruiting and have less practices than usual before a bowl game. Boise top RB Mattison(5.1 ypc) likely out. Good news for the Duck D since run defense is so-so, but the pass defense is pretty good. Oregon D has also been good getting the turnovers, and with Rypien, that has been an issue at times. If Boise coach, Bryan Harsin, gets a new HC job by next Saturday, watch this line balloon.

Travex · Dec 8, 2017

I look for this thread every bowl season. Thank you for your insights o fred.

ofred · Dec 8, 2017

Travex said:
I look for this thread every bowl season. Thank you for your insights o fred.

Thanks. I look forward to every bowl season.

Snow in Philly. How much for tomorrow's game looks to be 2-6 inches??

ofred · Dec 9, 2017

Hard to know what to play on these FCS games, so mostly playing nothing. Lean on SH ST./ Kennesaw- over 33.5 1H. Bad matchup for both defenses. Can't see either D stopping the particular style of offense they are facing.

ofred · Dec 9, 2017

Good start. +5

Adding to my Oregon play,
1* Oregon -7(-130) Makes this a 6*. Duck players are going to play at their best for their new coach. This Taggart thing might actually work out for the best for Oregon. Cristobal was known for being an excellent recruiter at Alabama(part of their NC), and at Miami,FL.

1* Troy/ UNT- under 62 These early games are usually low in scoring unless it has two high scoring teams like WKU of the past, or Memphis -type teams. Troy has a very good defense that will likely shut down the UNT running game. UNT RB Jeffrey Wilson, their playmaker is out. Totally up to gamer, and little guy, Mason Fine. He is a tough kid who can make the passes to keep his team competitive. Unfortunately, many of those big plays were vs. a poor Army secondary, UTEP, Rice and other woeful passing defenses. Fine's OL is porous and he has been sacked 33 times, and hurried a whole bunch more. I think Troy will figure out and plan for Fine's better aspects. Troy's offense has struggled at times this season. Their senior RB, Jordan Chunn, tore up LSU, but then kind of faded late in the season. Troy has also had OL issues. QB Brandon Silvers is solid if not spectacular. More of a pocket passer, and has his better games vs. Troy's worst competition. Unknown: Troy's injury list and whether HC Neal Brown gets hired away someplace.

ofred · Dec 11, 2017

2* South Dakota St. +3 Limits on these FCS games, so if you're betting a dime(or more) per unit, you'll have to spread it around. I'm convinced that SD State and NDSU are going to the finals. It's just seems like the perfect matchup. Also, I'm convinced that they are the two best teams in the FCS, not JMU, last year's champ. SD. St. has an offense that is nearly unstoppable. More impressive is how they have played so well in their past 7 games. Beat NDSU, the FCS powerhouse, by 12, and it wasn't a fluke. Crushed 2 good Ds in UNH and Northern Iowa. JMU struggled with Weber, and I think it's because they just don't have the offensive playmakers or the running game they had last year. Getting only 3 on the road to JMU, with its defense and championship to defend, says to me that the lines makers know how good SDSU is. I'm going to be pissed if this line gets bigger.

2* Marshall +5.5 Marshall coach, Doc Holliday, is 4-0 in bowl games, and I'm guessing he knows how to prepare his teams. Colorado State lost both their OC and their DC in the past week, the OC being also their acclaimed OL coach. Both teams faded late in the season, but at least Marshall had a much improved season from 2016. CSU was expected to be a top 2-3 team in the Mt. West. They lost 3 of their last 4, only beating hapless San Jose State. Marshall lost their end of the season games in close contests in the most difficult part of their schedule, losing to FAU by 5, UTSA by 2, and S. Miss by 1. But Marshall's run defense was 18th in the nation in ypc, which is key to stopping CSU's running game. CSU had the 101st ypc run defense, and an overall porous defense, being 96th in pass defense. Marshall is excited to play in New Mexico since they almost never travel west, and did not want to end up in Florida AGAIN, and since many of the players are from Fla. They also won't have the distractions that come with playing near friends and family. I also have a fairly low opinion of the Mt. West, especially their bottom 5-6 teams, which play god-awful defense.

Saints2016 · Dec 11, 2017

Good luck this Bowl season Fred!

dg84 · Dec 12, 2017

o fred said:
2* South Dakota St. +3 Limits on these FCS games, so if you're betting a dime(or more) per unit, you'll have to spread it around. I'm convinced that SD State and NDSU are going to the finals. It's just seems like the perfect matchup. Also, I'm convinced that they are the two best teams in the FCS, not JMU, last year's champ. SD. St. has an offense that is nearly unstoppable. More impressive is how they have played so well in their past 7 games. Beat NDSU, the FCS powerhouse, by 12, and it wasn't a fluke. Crushed 2 good Ds in UNH and Northern Iowa. JMU struggled with Weber, and I think it's because they just don't have the offensive playmakers or the running game they had last year. Getting only 3 on the road to JMU, with its defense and championship to defend, says to me that the lines makers know how good SDSU is. I'm going to be pissed if this line gets bigger.

2* Marshall +5.5 Marshall coach, Doc Holliday, is 4-0 in bowl games, and I'm guessing he knows how to prepare his teams. Colorado State lost both their OC and their DC in the past week, the OC being also their acclaimed OL coach. Both teams faded late in the season, but at least Marshall had a much improved season from 2016. CSU was expected to be a top 2-3 team in the Mt. West. They lost 3 of their last 4, only beating hapless San Jose State. Marshall lost their end of the season games in close contests in the most difficult part of their schedule, losing to FAU by 5, UTSA by 2, and S. Miss by 1. But Marshall's run defense was 18th in the nation in ypc, which is key to stopping CSU's running game. CSU had the 101st ypc run defense, and an overall porous defense, being 96th in pass defense. Marshall is excited to play in New Mexico since they almost never travel west, and did not want to end up in Florida AGAIN, and since many of the players are from Fla. They also won't have the distractions that come with playing near friends and family. I also have a fairly low opinion of the Mt. West, especially their bottom 5-6 teams, which play god-awful defense.

I'm on board with your South Dakota St. play. I watched the entire JM/Weber game & it was apparent that JM's QB Schor holds the ball too long & didn't want to throw unless someone was wide open. They also threw the ball deep repeatedly when it was clear he wasn't on his game. He threw for 360, but was 21 of 45 & if not for that big receiver Stapleton pulling down numerous jump balls, he would have been much worse. Their RB Marshall looked awesome, but they only gave him 15 carries for some reason. Didn't like what I saw out of Schor, or the offensive play calling. Also, West Florida +7.5 is a steal in the D2 Championship this weekend. That conference is always among the best in the nation. North Alabama, Delta State & Valdosta State have all been in multiple championship games over the past 20 years. WF just beat the #1 team (IUP) on their own field in the cold. Numerous D1 transfers from SEC schools populate the West Florida roster. The only reason they're a dog is because they lost 3 games & Texas A&M Comm only lost once, but the level of competition wasn't equal.

MackDonald · Dec 12, 2017

o fred said:
Thanks. I look forward to every bowl season.

Snow in Philly. How much for tomorrow's game looks to be 2-6 inches??

Most of us "sports fans" who have been known to place a "friendly wager" or two on many of these bowl games, we look forward to the bowl season and the games played. To the average (non-betting fan), many of these bowl game don't mean a thing because of their lack of significance other than just another football game long after the regular season has ended.

With the playoffs now the format to determine the NC, these minor bowl games with teams that have 7-5 or even 6-6 win/loss records mean nothing except to the players (maybe) and their families along with the school administrators who look forward to a paycheck thanks to TV money.....certainly not from the revenue derived from the number of tickets actually sold.

1osubucks · Dec 12, 2017

o fred said:
5* Oregon -7 (-125) Oregon players overwhelmingly wanted Cristobal to be their next head coach, over 70 players signing a petition to make it so. It's now so. More to come...

o fred said:
Early bowl games do not usually excite teams like Boise and Oregon, although Oregon didn't go at all last year. I got a feeling this Duck team will play at a more enthusiastic level now that Cristobal is staying. Practices will be spirited. The team leaders have come out and have expressed their appreciation of his coaching abilities and relationships with players. Oregon is also likely to keep a couple of other top assistant coaches even if Leavitt leaves after the bowl game. You might be tired of hearing it from me, but Oregon is a totally different team with Herbert at QB. It seems to make the run game and even the D play up. The Ducks excellent OL can handle a good Boise DL, and keep intact their great balance of run-pass that makes their offense so dangerous.

Both teams are recruiting and have less practices than usual before a bowl game. Boise top RB Mattison(5.1 ypc) likely out. Good news for the Duck D since run defense is so-so, but the pass defense is pretty good. Oregon D has also been good getting the turnovers, and with Rypien, that has been an issue at times. If Boise coach, Bryan Harsin, gets a new HC job by next Saturday, watch this line balloon.

Serbone · Dec 13, 2017

Good write ups, much appreciated, Oregon looks very good to me.

ofred · Dec 13, 2017

dg84 said:
I'm on board with your South Dakota St. play. I watched the entire JM/Weber game & it was apparent that JM's QB Schor holds the ball too long & didn't want to throw unless someone was wide open. They also threw the ball deep repeatedly when it was clear he wasn't on his game. He threw for 360, but was 21 of 45 & if not for that big receiver Stapleton pulling down numerous jump balls, he would have been much worse. Their RB Marshall looked awesome, but they only gave him 15 carries for some reason. Didn't like what I saw out of Schor, or the offensive play calling. Also, West Florida +7.5 is a steal in the D2 Championship this weekend. That conference is always among the best in the nation. North Alabama, Delta State & Valdosta State have all been in multiple championship games over the past 20 years. WF just beat the #1 team (IUP) on their own field in the cold. Numerous D1 transfers from SEC schools populate the West Florida roster. The only reason they're a dog is because they lost 3 games & Texas A&M Comm only lost once, but the level of competition wasn't equal.

Thank you for this. I rarely hear this kind of insight from those that follow FCS or D2 football. I'll be looking at WF now for a possible play. As far as JMU QB Schorr, he'll see a better D this weekend with SD State.

BOWL Thread and Week 15

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