Ranking strength of remainin+g schedule for NFL playoff contenders
Aaron Schatz
ESPN INSIDER
Now that we've gotten to the stretch run of the NFL season, schedule strength is more important than ever in figuring out which teams are most likely to make it to the playoffs. There's a big difference between playing three of your last four on the road and playing three of your last four at home. And there's a big difference between a must-win late-season game against the New England Patriots or New Orleans Saints compared to a must-win late-season game against the Cleveland Browns.
Which teams have the most favorable and least favorable schedules over the final month of the season? To figure that out, we looked at the expected number of games a perfectly average team would win against each team's remaining schedule. This method incorporates both the quality of the teams left on the schedule (based on Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, explained here) and the split of home and road games. The probability of beating Dallas is adjusted during Ezekiel Elliott's suspension, while probabilities for playing teams such as the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans are adjusted for backup quarterbacks. The numbers listed below assume that Aaron Rodgers will return for Green Bay beginning in Week 15.
Our list includes only teams with at least 5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the latest Football Outsiders season simulations.
Hardest NFC schedules
Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
Average team projection: 1.66 wins
Schedule: Saints, at Bucs, at Saints, Panthers
Atlanta's difficult schedule is all about that home-and-home with their hated rivals in New Orleans, because New Orleans is one of the four or five best teams in the NFL right now. Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings have seven teams ahead of the rest of the league: the four NFC division leaders, the Patriots, the Steelers and the Ravens. (Yes, the Baltimore Ravens, who are No. 1 on both defense and special teams.) Only two playoff contenders still have two games against these top seven teams. The Steelers are one, and we'll get to them in a bit. The Falcons are the other, and unlike the Steelers, they have to play the same great team twice. At least they get a mild advantage by hosting the Thursday night game this week while the Saints have to travel on the short week.
Oh, and the Panthers aren't exactly pushovers either.
Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Projection: 1.71 wins
Schedule: at Jaguars, Rams, at Cowboys, Cardinals
We know the Jaguars are a strong defensive team this year, and Seattle to Jacksonville is almost the longest flight any team has to take for a road game. Then come the Rams, although the math doesn't know that Seattle already beat the Rams in Los Angeles. Finally, they travel to Jerry World to play the Cowboys with an angry Zeke Elliott finally coming back from his suspension. That's a tough three-game stretch. The Cardinals in Week 17 should be easy by comparison.
Dallas Cowboys (6-6)
Projection: 1.76 wins
Schedule: at Giants, at Raiders, Seahawks, at Eagles
Part of what's difficult here is that the Cowboys have three of their last four on the road. The Giants and Raiders are weaker teams than the Seahawks and Eagles, but they might not be complete pushovers in their own buildings. At least the Cowboys get to play the two harder opponents with Elliott back on the field. But if they lose one of the first two games, the last two won't matter.
Easiest NFC schedules
Detroit Lions (6-6)
Projection: 2.19 wins
Schedule: at Bucs, Bears, at Bengals, Packers
This stretch will be even easier if Rodgers does not make it back from his broken collarbone as currently planned. Before they get to the Packers at home, the Lions play three teams that rank 21st or worse in DVOA. And it's a good thing Detroit's schedule is so easy. The Lions essentially have to sweep this to make the playoffs. They are in the postseason in only 13 percent of simulations in which they end up 9-7, but 69 percent of simulations in which they end up 10-6. (Yes, only 69 percent; losses to Atlanta and Carolina may end up a problem even if they do sweep the last four games.)
New Orleans Saints (9-3)
Projection: 2.14 wins
Schedule: at Falcons, Jets, Falcons, at Bucs
Here's a good piece of news for fantasy owners of Saints players: No team plays an easier schedule of opposing defenses over the next three weeks. Atlanta is a difficult offense to stop (seventh in DVOA), but they still haven't gotten their young defense working together well (24th in DVOA). The Jets and Bucs should be pretty easy pickings to help get the Saints to 12-4 or 13-3.
Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Projection: 1.99 wins
Schedule: at Panthers, Bengals, at Packers, Bears
What really sticks out here is that Week 16 game in Green Bay. The Packers will have the frozen tundra, the home crowd, and probably a healthy Rodgers. In simulations in which the Vikings win that game, they get the No. 1 seed 66 percent of the time and a bye week 92 percent of the time. In simulations in which they lose, those odds drop to 29 percent and 62 percent, respectively.
The rest of the NFC
Carolina Panthers (8-4): 1.98 wins | Vikings, Packers, Bucs, at Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2): 1.90 wins | at Rams, at Giants, Raiders, Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams (9-3): 1.88 wins | Eagles, at Seahawks, at Titans, 49ers
Green Bay Packers (6-6): 1.83 wins | at Browns, at Panthers, Vikings, at Lions
Hardest AFC schedules
Oakland Raiders (6-6)
Average team projection: 1.57 wins
Schedule: at Chiefs, Cowboys, at Eagles, at Chargers
The Raiders have by far the toughest remaining schedule among the AFC contenders. There's a huge imbalance between the two conferences, and the Raiders still have two of their NFC games left to play. But an even bigger issue is that the Raiders are 2-2 in the AFC West with their final two division games both on the road.
It's also worth noting that the Raiders' defense, which ranks dead last in DVOA, is going to get further torn apart over the final month of the season. Each of these four opponents ranks in the top 11 of offensive DVOA, although at least the Raiders get Dallas in the last game before Elliott returns.
Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Projection: 1.95 wins
Schedule: at Cardinals, at 49ers, Rams, Jaguars
The Titans' final four games present a gantlet of difficult defenses. The 49ers are a break, but the Cardinals have improved to sixth in defensive DVOA. The Rams are fifth, and the Jaguars second. It's good news for the Titans that the two more difficult opponents here are at home, including the one they probably will need to beat to win a division title. Right now, the Titans win the division title 79 percent of the time if they win in Week 17, and only 10 percent of the time if they lose.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2)
Projection: 2.08 wins
Schedule: Ravens, Patriots, at Texans, Browns
Yes, this is how imbalanced the conferences are this year: There are only two AFC contenders whose remaining schedules qualify as harder than average. Obviously, there's one opponent here with a neon sign flashing "DANGER," but the Steelers get to play three of their last four at Heinz Field. As we noted earlier, the Steelers are the only AFC contender that still has two games against the current DVOA top seven. The very strong chance that the Steelers win the last two games outweighs the difficulty of the first two opponents when it comes to measuring schedule strength, but it won't matter to the Steelers if a loss to New England costs them the No. 1 seed.
Easiest AFC schedules
Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Projection: 2.50 wins
Schedule: Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, at Broncos
Despite a massive midseason swoon, Football Outsiders' playoff odds and ESPN's FPI playoff odds both have the Chiefs still listed as division favorites. This schedule is the reason why. Kansas City is 2-1 in the division, and the two teams currently challenging them for the division title both have to come to Arrowhead Stadium in the next two weeks. Kansas City's final two opponents are the worst two teams in the league, according to DVOA. (Yes, they are narrowly worse than winless Cleveland.) As long as the Chiefs win those last two games, they need to only split against the Raiders and Chargers at home and they still win the AFC West at 9-7 in 73 percent of simulations (with a wild card in an additional 10 percent of simulations).
Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Projection: 2.39 wins
Schedule: Colts, Dolphins, at Patriots, at Dolphins
The Bills have the same problem now that they've had since they started falling apart at midseason. It doesn't matter how many wins an average team would get against this schedule because one specific game, Week 16's trip to Foxborough, will be so difficult. It's not ridiculous to suggest that the Bills could sweep the other three games, even if they must use Nathan Peterman at quarterback. But in simulations where they do sweep the non-Pats games, they still make the playoffs only 43 percent of the time. And they have to sweep those games if they can't upset the Patriots, because the Bills make the playoffs in less than 1 percent of simulations where they finish 8-8.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Projection: 2.22 wins
Schedule: Seahawks, Texans, at 49ers, at Titans
The AFC South title may depend on that Week 17 trip to Nashville, but everything else is lining up for the Jaguars to end a 10-year playoff drought. Houston and San Francisco shouldn't be too difficult to beat, and they're favored to beat Seattle at home. Even in simulations in which the Jaguars lose to Tennessee in Week 17, they still make the postseason 96.7 percent of the time (21.5 percent division title and 75.2 percent wild card).
The rest of the AFC
New England Patriots (10-2): 2.15 wins | at Dolphins, at Steelers, Bills, Jets
Los Angeles Chargers (6-6): 2.12 wins | Redskins, at Chiefs, at Jets, Raiders
Baltimore Ravens (7-5): 2.10 wins | at Steelers, at Browns, Colts, Bengals
Aaron Schatz
ESPN INSIDER
Now that we've gotten to the stretch run of the NFL season, schedule strength is more important than ever in figuring out which teams are most likely to make it to the playoffs. There's a big difference between playing three of your last four on the road and playing three of your last four at home. And there's a big difference between a must-win late-season game against the New England Patriots or New Orleans Saints compared to a must-win late-season game against the Cleveland Browns.
Which teams have the most favorable and least favorable schedules over the final month of the season? To figure that out, we looked at the expected number of games a perfectly average team would win against each team's remaining schedule. This method incorporates both the quality of the teams left on the schedule (based on Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, explained here) and the split of home and road games. The probability of beating Dallas is adjusted during Ezekiel Elliott's suspension, while probabilities for playing teams such as the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans are adjusted for backup quarterbacks. The numbers listed below assume that Aaron Rodgers will return for Green Bay beginning in Week 15.
Our list includes only teams with at least 5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the latest Football Outsiders season simulations.
Hardest NFC schedules
Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
Average team projection: 1.66 wins
Schedule: Saints, at Bucs, at Saints, Panthers
Atlanta's difficult schedule is all about that home-and-home with their hated rivals in New Orleans, because New Orleans is one of the four or five best teams in the NFL right now. Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings have seven teams ahead of the rest of the league: the four NFC division leaders, the Patriots, the Steelers and the Ravens. (Yes, the Baltimore Ravens, who are No. 1 on both defense and special teams.) Only two playoff contenders still have two games against these top seven teams. The Steelers are one, and we'll get to them in a bit. The Falcons are the other, and unlike the Steelers, they have to play the same great team twice. At least they get a mild advantage by hosting the Thursday night game this week while the Saints have to travel on the short week.
Oh, and the Panthers aren't exactly pushovers either.
Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Projection: 1.71 wins
Schedule: at Jaguars, Rams, at Cowboys, Cardinals
We know the Jaguars are a strong defensive team this year, and Seattle to Jacksonville is almost the longest flight any team has to take for a road game. Then come the Rams, although the math doesn't know that Seattle already beat the Rams in Los Angeles. Finally, they travel to Jerry World to play the Cowboys with an angry Zeke Elliott finally coming back from his suspension. That's a tough three-game stretch. The Cardinals in Week 17 should be easy by comparison.
Dallas Cowboys (6-6)
Projection: 1.76 wins
Schedule: at Giants, at Raiders, Seahawks, at Eagles
Part of what's difficult here is that the Cowboys have three of their last four on the road. The Giants and Raiders are weaker teams than the Seahawks and Eagles, but they might not be complete pushovers in their own buildings. At least the Cowboys get to play the two harder opponents with Elliott back on the field. But if they lose one of the first two games, the last two won't matter.
Easiest NFC schedules
Detroit Lions (6-6)
Projection: 2.19 wins
Schedule: at Bucs, Bears, at Bengals, Packers
This stretch will be even easier if Rodgers does not make it back from his broken collarbone as currently planned. Before they get to the Packers at home, the Lions play three teams that rank 21st or worse in DVOA. And it's a good thing Detroit's schedule is so easy. The Lions essentially have to sweep this to make the playoffs. They are in the postseason in only 13 percent of simulations in which they end up 9-7, but 69 percent of simulations in which they end up 10-6. (Yes, only 69 percent; losses to Atlanta and Carolina may end up a problem even if they do sweep the last four games.)
New Orleans Saints (9-3)
Projection: 2.14 wins
Schedule: at Falcons, Jets, Falcons, at Bucs
Here's a good piece of news for fantasy owners of Saints players: No team plays an easier schedule of opposing defenses over the next three weeks. Atlanta is a difficult offense to stop (seventh in DVOA), but they still haven't gotten their young defense working together well (24th in DVOA). The Jets and Bucs should be pretty easy pickings to help get the Saints to 12-4 or 13-3.
Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Projection: 1.99 wins
Schedule: at Panthers, Bengals, at Packers, Bears
What really sticks out here is that Week 16 game in Green Bay. The Packers will have the frozen tundra, the home crowd, and probably a healthy Rodgers. In simulations in which the Vikings win that game, they get the No. 1 seed 66 percent of the time and a bye week 92 percent of the time. In simulations in which they lose, those odds drop to 29 percent and 62 percent, respectively.
The rest of the NFC
Carolina Panthers (8-4): 1.98 wins | Vikings, Packers, Bucs, at Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2): 1.90 wins | at Rams, at Giants, Raiders, Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams (9-3): 1.88 wins | Eagles, at Seahawks, at Titans, 49ers
Green Bay Packers (6-6): 1.83 wins | at Browns, at Panthers, Vikings, at Lions
Hardest AFC schedules
Oakland Raiders (6-6)
Average team projection: 1.57 wins
Schedule: at Chiefs, Cowboys, at Eagles, at Chargers
The Raiders have by far the toughest remaining schedule among the AFC contenders. There's a huge imbalance between the two conferences, and the Raiders still have two of their NFC games left to play. But an even bigger issue is that the Raiders are 2-2 in the AFC West with their final two division games both on the road.
It's also worth noting that the Raiders' defense, which ranks dead last in DVOA, is going to get further torn apart over the final month of the season. Each of these four opponents ranks in the top 11 of offensive DVOA, although at least the Raiders get Dallas in the last game before Elliott returns.
Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Projection: 1.95 wins
Schedule: at Cardinals, at 49ers, Rams, Jaguars
The Titans' final four games present a gantlet of difficult defenses. The 49ers are a break, but the Cardinals have improved to sixth in defensive DVOA. The Rams are fifth, and the Jaguars second. It's good news for the Titans that the two more difficult opponents here are at home, including the one they probably will need to beat to win a division title. Right now, the Titans win the division title 79 percent of the time if they win in Week 17, and only 10 percent of the time if they lose.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2)
Projection: 2.08 wins
Schedule: Ravens, Patriots, at Texans, Browns
Yes, this is how imbalanced the conferences are this year: There are only two AFC contenders whose remaining schedules qualify as harder than average. Obviously, there's one opponent here with a neon sign flashing "DANGER," but the Steelers get to play three of their last four at Heinz Field. As we noted earlier, the Steelers are the only AFC contender that still has two games against the current DVOA top seven. The very strong chance that the Steelers win the last two games outweighs the difficulty of the first two opponents when it comes to measuring schedule strength, but it won't matter to the Steelers if a loss to New England costs them the No. 1 seed.
Easiest AFC schedules
Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Projection: 2.50 wins
Schedule: Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, at Broncos
Despite a massive midseason swoon, Football Outsiders' playoff odds and ESPN's FPI playoff odds both have the Chiefs still listed as division favorites. This schedule is the reason why. Kansas City is 2-1 in the division, and the two teams currently challenging them for the division title both have to come to Arrowhead Stadium in the next two weeks. Kansas City's final two opponents are the worst two teams in the league, according to DVOA. (Yes, they are narrowly worse than winless Cleveland.) As long as the Chiefs win those last two games, they need to only split against the Raiders and Chargers at home and they still win the AFC West at 9-7 in 73 percent of simulations (with a wild card in an additional 10 percent of simulations).
Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Projection: 2.39 wins
Schedule: Colts, Dolphins, at Patriots, at Dolphins
The Bills have the same problem now that they've had since they started falling apart at midseason. It doesn't matter how many wins an average team would get against this schedule because one specific game, Week 16's trip to Foxborough, will be so difficult. It's not ridiculous to suggest that the Bills could sweep the other three games, even if they must use Nathan Peterman at quarterback. But in simulations where they do sweep the non-Pats games, they still make the playoffs only 43 percent of the time. And they have to sweep those games if they can't upset the Patriots, because the Bills make the playoffs in less than 1 percent of simulations where they finish 8-8.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Projection: 2.22 wins
Schedule: Seahawks, Texans, at 49ers, at Titans
The AFC South title may depend on that Week 17 trip to Nashville, but everything else is lining up for the Jaguars to end a 10-year playoff drought. Houston and San Francisco shouldn't be too difficult to beat, and they're favored to beat Seattle at home. Even in simulations in which the Jaguars lose to Tennessee in Week 17, they still make the postseason 96.7 percent of the time (21.5 percent division title and 75.2 percent wild card).
The rest of the AFC
New England Patriots (10-2): 2.15 wins | at Dolphins, at Steelers, Bills, Jets
Los Angeles Chargers (6-6): 2.12 wins | Redskins, at Chiefs, at Jets, Raiders
Baltimore Ravens (7-5): 2.10 wins | at Steelers, at Browns, Colts, Bengals
