Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 14
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER
It's December and every morning when I head to work, it seems to be just a bit colder than the day before. If we look ahead to Sunday, there are some chilly temperatures in the forecast at a handful of NFL stadiums. How do these temperatures impact the game?
Cold temperatures must mean low-scoring games, right?
For this week's system, we're going to look at why taking the over in the cold is a wise decision.
Looking at the historical database at Bet Labs Sports, we can see a clear edge by taking overs in games with temperatures below 40 degrees. With a 215-189 record, we've got ourselves started on the right foot with a 53.2 percent win rate. We're not done, though.
If you read last week's article, you may remember that taking the 'under' in late-season division matchups has historically been a smart bet. Therefore, if we eliminate divisional games from this system, our win rate improves to 59.8 percent.
Week 14 Contrarian System
RECORD (WIN%) ROI
Cold overs (39° or less) 215-189-5 (53.2%) +3.9%
Non-division cold overs 137-92-2 (59.8%) +16.5%
Why it works
I believe the main reason this works is because it is the opposite outcome of what an average person would expect. Most people assume that any weather elements will wreak havoc on an offense and cause games to go under the total. We know that windy conditions definitely favor the under, but cold temperatures don't.
By looking at public betting data, we can see whether or not the idea that cold temps lead to low-scoring games translates over to bettors taking a different approach.
Spoiler: It does.
Dating back to 2003, taking the over has been the public's favorite thing to do. In all regular-season games over that span, the over has received the majority of bets 86.74 percent of the time. It has received at least 60 percent of bets 68.78 percent of the time, and at least 70 percent of bets 35.97 percent of the time.
In our cold-game sample, the over has received the majority of bets 77.06 percent of the time, at least 60 percent of bets 58.01 percent of the time, and at least 70 percent of bets just 21.21 percent of the time. Though the public still likes to take the over no matter the situation, it's clear they are less inclined to do so in the cold.
This system has actually worked even better in more extreme cold, though our sample size gets cut down substantially. With temperatures in the 30s, this system has produced a 4.1 percent return on investment (ROI). In temperatures below 30 degrees, it has produced a 40.4 percent ROI in a 79-game sample. Over 40 percent! Lucky for us, it appears as if we will have at least one of those games this week.
Week 14 system matches
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
With just a 37.5 total, oddsmakers have set the bar low for this game. This isn't that surprising, though, seeing as how the Bears are one of just four teams in the league with an over record of 4-8. These teams both have two of the worst offenses in the league, scoring less than 35 points per game combined.
With temperatures expected to be in the low 30s, this game is almost sure to be a match. It also features an unrelated match on another system I particularly like: Games featuring a home team that is coming off a Monday Night Football game have gone over the total 59 percent of the time.
The Pick: Over 37.5
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
Bettors are going to need some convincing to take the over in this game. With quarterbacks Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer set to face off, the over is receiving just 41 percent of bets in the early going.
However, perhaps it is the defenses that bettors should be paying attention to, not the offenses. At over 350 yards allowed per game, the Packers' defense ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. The Browns have actually done a good job as far as yards per game are concerned, but given their league-worst 30 turnovers, opposing teams don't have to march down the field to score points. Cleveland has allowed almost 26 points per game, sixth worst in the league. Given this perfect storm of defensive ineptitude, this game should go over no matter how bad of a quarterback duel it is.
The Pick: Over 40.5
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
This game remains off the board due to quarterback Tyrod Taylor's injury against the Patriots, but it will be a match, trust me. With temperatures expected in the mid-20s, this will likely be the coldest game of the week.
If backup Bills QB Nathan Peterman does get the nod, this game will cause a conundrum in the minds of many bettors. He surely can't play as bad as he did against the Chargers, but will the Bills be able to score enough points for the over to hit? Conversely, will Peterman's poor play lead to a high-scoring day for the Colts?
The Pick: Over
There are two more games with expected temperatures right around 40 degrees that could become matches by week's end as forecasts become more accurate -- Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, and Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants.
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER
It's December and every morning when I head to work, it seems to be just a bit colder than the day before. If we look ahead to Sunday, there are some chilly temperatures in the forecast at a handful of NFL stadiums. How do these temperatures impact the game?
Cold temperatures must mean low-scoring games, right?
For this week's system, we're going to look at why taking the over in the cold is a wise decision.
Looking at the historical database at Bet Labs Sports, we can see a clear edge by taking overs in games with temperatures below 40 degrees. With a 215-189 record, we've got ourselves started on the right foot with a 53.2 percent win rate. We're not done, though.
If you read last week's article, you may remember that taking the 'under' in late-season division matchups has historically been a smart bet. Therefore, if we eliminate divisional games from this system, our win rate improves to 59.8 percent.
Week 14 Contrarian System
RECORD (WIN%) ROI
Cold overs (39° or less) 215-189-5 (53.2%) +3.9%
Non-division cold overs 137-92-2 (59.8%) +16.5%
Why it works
I believe the main reason this works is because it is the opposite outcome of what an average person would expect. Most people assume that any weather elements will wreak havoc on an offense and cause games to go under the total. We know that windy conditions definitely favor the under, but cold temperatures don't.
By looking at public betting data, we can see whether or not the idea that cold temps lead to low-scoring games translates over to bettors taking a different approach.
Spoiler: It does.
Dating back to 2003, taking the over has been the public's favorite thing to do. In all regular-season games over that span, the over has received the majority of bets 86.74 percent of the time. It has received at least 60 percent of bets 68.78 percent of the time, and at least 70 percent of bets 35.97 percent of the time.
In our cold-game sample, the over has received the majority of bets 77.06 percent of the time, at least 60 percent of bets 58.01 percent of the time, and at least 70 percent of bets just 21.21 percent of the time. Though the public still likes to take the over no matter the situation, it's clear they are less inclined to do so in the cold.
This system has actually worked even better in more extreme cold, though our sample size gets cut down substantially. With temperatures in the 30s, this system has produced a 4.1 percent return on investment (ROI). In temperatures below 30 degrees, it has produced a 40.4 percent ROI in a 79-game sample. Over 40 percent! Lucky for us, it appears as if we will have at least one of those games this week.
Week 14 system matches
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
With just a 37.5 total, oddsmakers have set the bar low for this game. This isn't that surprising, though, seeing as how the Bears are one of just four teams in the league with an over record of 4-8. These teams both have two of the worst offenses in the league, scoring less than 35 points per game combined.
With temperatures expected to be in the low 30s, this game is almost sure to be a match. It also features an unrelated match on another system I particularly like: Games featuring a home team that is coming off a Monday Night Football game have gone over the total 59 percent of the time.
The Pick: Over 37.5
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
Bettors are going to need some convincing to take the over in this game. With quarterbacks Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer set to face off, the over is receiving just 41 percent of bets in the early going.
However, perhaps it is the defenses that bettors should be paying attention to, not the offenses. At over 350 yards allowed per game, the Packers' defense ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. The Browns have actually done a good job as far as yards per game are concerned, but given their league-worst 30 turnovers, opposing teams don't have to march down the field to score points. Cleveland has allowed almost 26 points per game, sixth worst in the league. Given this perfect storm of defensive ineptitude, this game should go over no matter how bad of a quarterback duel it is.
The Pick: Over 40.5
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
This game remains off the board due to quarterback Tyrod Taylor's injury against the Patriots, but it will be a match, trust me. With temperatures expected in the mid-20s, this will likely be the coldest game of the week.
If backup Bills QB Nathan Peterman does get the nod, this game will cause a conundrum in the minds of many bettors. He surely can't play as bad as he did against the Chargers, but will the Bills be able to score enough points for the over to hit? Conversely, will Peterman's poor play lead to a high-scoring day for the Colts?
The Pick: Over
There are two more games with expected temperatures right around 40 degrees that could become matches by week's end as forecasts become more accurate -- Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, and Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants.
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
