Best bets on Week 14 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS ESPN INSDER
It's Week 14 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Cincinnati
Phil Steele's take: Chicago has a solid defense that is holding foes to 13 yards per game below their season average (No. 11 in the NFL). While its offense was serviceable for most of the season, the Bears have managed just eight first downs and less than 150 yards the past two weeks in losses to the Eagles and 49ers. The Bengals put up a great fight in last week's 23-20 loss to the Steelers, but the loss all but ended their playoff hopes. While the Bears are being outgained by 58 yards per game, they are more than capable of staying within a touchdown of a deflated Bengals team that is being outgained by 53 yards per game.
ATS pick: Lean on Chicago
Warren Sharp's take: After another game in which the final score was closer than it should have been (thanks to non-offensive touchdowns), the Bears travel to take on a beaten-up team in the Bengals. Chicago has had the fortune of playing three of its past four games at home, and the last time the Bears were on the road, they lost 31-3 to the Eagles. That said, it's hard to know what defensive players the Bengals will actually trot onto the field, given they lost a number to concussions in their game against the Steelers last week. The Bengals' run defense is much different without Vontaze Burfict at linebacker, and he's likely out this week, so the Bears could have a slight edge there. The mental state of the Bengals also will be a question mark, after blowing the big lead to the Steelers.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 18, Chicago 15
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI +6, 37.5
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: Everyone, including myself, figured that the Packers' season was over when Aaron Rodgers went down. They were 4-1 but dropped five of the next six. Last week, they were outgained 395-204 in regulation at home by the Buccaneers but pulled out the game in overtime, all with Rodgers inching closer to a return. The Browns have played four of their past five games on the road, but last week was just the second time all season that they had been outgained by more than 100 yards (and they still managed to cover). Cleveland has a two-game lead in the race for the No. 1 draft pick. Cleveland actually has a top-10 defense but somehow manages to find ways not to cover (3-9 ATS). Even with Rodgers playing five games, Green Bay is minus-49 yards per game this season. (The Browns are only minus-19 yards per game despite being winless.) This might be the Browns' best chance at a win this season, and as long as they are getting at least a field goal, I will side with the Browns.
ATS pick: Lean on Cleveland
Warren Sharp's take: The Packers' run-heavy strategy won't work so well against the Browns, as Cleveland has the No. 2 run defense in the NFL. It's better than any run defense the Packers have faced this season; they have played just three games against top-10 run defenses this season, and they lost all three games: 23-0, 23-10 and 31-28. So it will be on Brett Hundley to open things up, and I'm not sure if that is the ticket for success. On the other side of the ball, the Browns just received their top two WRs back, as Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman started together last week for the first time.
Last week, against the Chargers, they weren't as successful, but the Chargers allow just 6.5 yards per target to WRs, which ranks second best in the league. In fact, during the past three weeks, the Browns' offense has faced the No. 1 (Jaguars), No. 2 (Chargers) and No. 4 (Bengals) defenses in yards per attempt allowed to WRs. In the Packers, they will get to face the No. 31-ranked team, which is allowing a massive 8.7 yards per attempt to WRs. The Packers also allow 55 percent of WR targets to grade as successful, also No. 31.
Play: Browns +3.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 21, Cleveland 19
The pick: Cleveland +3
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: Many weeks ago, I mentioned that the Raiders could still make the playoffs. They have won three of their past four, with the only loss coming in Mexico City to the altitude-hardened Patriots. The Raiders have beaten three of the NFL's weakest teams during that stretch, but who is to say that these Chiefs don't fall into that category? Over the past four weeks, the Chiefs are 0-4, with losses to the Giants, Bills and Jets (minus-13 yards per game during that stretch). Last week, Oakland was down its top two wide receivers in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, but it had a 391-219 yardage edge versus the Giants. Oakland is plus-48 yards per game during its past six games. Everyone knows the Raiders have a poor defense, but they are allowing 346 yards per game on the season, while the Chiefs are surprisingly allowing 382 yards per game (third worst in the NFL). Oakland had a 32-19 first-down edge on the Chiefs earlier this season, and the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 trips to Arrowhead.
ATS pick: Lean on Oakland
Erin Rynning's take: One can look at the numbers and see the Raiders ranked 16th on offense and 22nd on defense. However, make no mistake, this is a team that's much more offense-first with Derek Carr. Over the past two weeks, this still-weak Raiders secondary played Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch. The Chiefs had struggled offensively, until they woke up last week averaging a ridiculous 10.3 yards per play. Teams have adjusted to them taking away the big play, but again, plays can be made against this Raiders secondary. These two teams combined for 930 yards and 61 points in the first matchup.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: As predicted last week, the Chiefs lost to the explosive pass offense of the Jets. It remains Kansas City's largest deficiency on defense, and the Raiders have an even more explosive pass offense than do the Jets. That said, they will be without Cooper, but they do receive back the services of Crabtree. This is an absolutely huge game for the AFC West, with both teams sitting at 6-6 in the division (and Oakland winning the first matchup this season). There are matchup edges for both offenses, whether they decide to run or pass the ball. The question becomes whether the Chiefs are able to continue the more explosive passing offense they unveiled in New York last week versus the Jets. Last week, the Chiefs went 76 percent pass, including 73 percent pass on early downs, which is a very high rate. I'll be intriguing to seeing whether, in such a huge game, the Chiefs elect for a more ball-control style of offense or if they go pass-heavy with high risk and high reward.
Pick: Lean Chiefs
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Oakland 21
The pick: Oakland and the under -- OAK +4, 47
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: The Giants just fired head coach Ben McAdoo and reinstated Eli Manning to the starting quarterback job. Something I have followed for decades is that teams generally play well the first game under an interim head coach (in this case Steve Spagnuolo). Last week, Oakland was down its top two wide receivers in Crabtree and Cooper but had a 391-219 yardage edge in the victory. Dallas destroyed the Giants with a 392-233 yardage edge in the opener, and the Giants never recovered. While the Giants would love to return the favor, Dallas should get back linebacker Sean Lee here (missed last three) and last week's win over Washington kept its slim playoff hopes alive. The Giants' minus-98 yards per game is the worst in the NFL, and making it even worse is that is has been against the No. 24 schedule. Only once all season have the Giants covered back-to-back games, and the spread is manageable for the Cowboys.
ATS pick: Lean on Dallas
Warren Sharp's take: This game hinges entirely on the energy the Giants approach it with. It's far more narrative driven than matchup driven. The Giants fired their head coach and GM, and reinstated their starting QB, while allowing their beloved defensive coordinator Spagunolo, to take over as head coach. At home against the rival Cowboys, this game is massive. The return of Lee at LB is a big addition for the Cowboys defense, and they have extra rest to prepare for this game. If the Giants are able to establish a run game which can keep their defense fresher, as the Cowboys are likely to bring their run game and try to wear down the 24th-ranked Giants run defense.
Lean: Giants
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 22, New York Giants 17
The pick: Dallas and the under -- DAL -4.5, 41.5
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: I have called the Panthers a playoff team since Week 1 this season, and they had a firm grasp on a postseason berth until they lost at New Orleans last week. They are now in the No. 6 spot and cannot afford many more mistakes. Minnesota is in firm control of its division and is now the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Vikings have perhaps the best defense in the NFL, while Case Keenum has proved to be much more than a game manager, hitting 68 percent of his passes with a 16:5 TD:INT ratio. The Panthers' defense was near the top two weeks ago, but it slipped to No. 6 after allowing 391 and 400 yards in its past two games. I do feel Minnesota is the more complete team at this point, but the Vikings are on their third-straight road game (including two marquee wins), while the Panthers are at home with their backs to the wall. It is time for Superman to return this weekend for the Panthers. Prior to last week's games, Carolina was favored by 2.5 points in this matchup. A five-point overreaction is too much.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Warren Sharp's take: This game comes down to what happens in the first quarter. And it relates entirely to Cam Newton's ability to stay clean in the pocket and operate downfield. It's no surprise that the Panthers are 0-3 against top-10 pass rushes this season, because if Newton gets knocked around, his front-running style turtles up and falls into a more passive mode. The Vikings' pass rush ranks only average, which should slightly favor Newton. That said, the Panthers have played the fourth-easiest schedule of pass rushes this year, and the Vikings' defense is still more than capable of getting pressure, especially with the Panthers' below-average run game and the potential for Minnesota's sixth-ranked run defense to make Carolina more one-dimensional than it would originally hope to be.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 21, Carolina 20
The pick: Carolina and the under -- CAR +2.5, 41
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Houston has lost its top two defensive players and quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season and is playing a guard at left tackle who had three consecutive false starts at one crucial point last week versus playoff contender Tennessee. The Texans have lost five of their past six games, but they are not as bad as all of that would indicate. Houston has outgained each of its past three foes. San Francisco opened the season 0-9 but has won two of its past three game. The Niners actually have the No. 9 offense and No. 6 defense in the NFL over the past four weeks. Jimmy Garoppolo hit 26-of-37 for 293 passing yards last week in his first start for the 49ers, but while they finished with a 388-147 yardage edge, they settled for five field goals in the matchup, including the game-winning 24-yarder with :04 remaining. While I could make a case for both teams, I will go with the angles here, as Houston is on an 11-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite over the past three years, while San Francisco is just 4-16 ATS outside of its division dating back to late in the 2015 season, when it dropped a matchup in Cleveland.
ATS pick: Lean on Houston
Erin Rynning's take: Ever apparent in the current landscape of the NFL, a competent quarterback can make all the difference in the world. Of course, the 49ers hope they found their man in Garoppolo, who looks like a clear upgrade. He and the 49ers' offense played much better last week than their 15 total points indicate. Garoppolo was 26 for 37 passing with 293 yards. Overall, the 49ers garnered 388 yards and controlled the game. The Texans have lost key talent on their defense and rank 20th in the NFL, as they've allowed 23 touchdown passes on the season.
Pick: 49ers and lean over
Warren Sharp's take: Garoppolo definitely made a difference for the 49ers last week, but they still were not productive inside the red zone. The 49ers' defense also looked substantially better, but a function of that might have simply been the anemic offense of the Bears. That said, the Bears were a strong rushing team, and they mustered only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and posted a 26 percent success rate. Houston has a balanced offense, but it lost a substantial number of receivers last week, as pass-catchers C.J. Fiedorowicz and Bruce Ellington left the game (they'll miss the rest of the season), and Braxton Miller and Alfred Blue left with concussions (questionable to go this week). This begs the question of whether the Texans will rely more on the run (the strength of the 49ers' defense, if there is one) or will simply funnel a ton of targets to their top WR, DeAndre Hopkins.
Pick: Lean 49ers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 23, San Francisco 22
The pick: San Francisco and the over -- SF +3, 43
New York Jets (-1) at Denver Broncos
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Two weeks into the season, Denver had beaten both the Chargers and Cowboys at home by a combined 28 points and was considered a strong playoff contender with its defense. Ten weeks later, they still have the No. 5 defense in the NFL and are plus-20 yards per game. After two weeks, the Jets were 0-2 with a pair of big losses and were thought to be tanking the season. They are still minus-25 yards per game after 12 weeks. The Jets are just 2-4 on the road and minus-124 yards per game away from home. Denver is plus-78 yards at home. Given that criteria in September, you would have thought that Denver would be a double-digit home favorite! The Broncos are actually a home underdog, however. All of those numbers say this could be the week that the Broncos rise up and snap their eight-game losing streak. The overriding factor is that Denver has now lost eight in a row ATS, and when you play on a streak, you win many times and lose only once; I will play on the Jets, who are on a 7-2-1 ATS run and won for me last week in their upset of Kansas City.
ATS pick: Lean on New York Jets
Warren Sharp's take: The Jets have been one of the most fun teams to watch over the second half of the season. One slight problem emerged this week, as WR Robby Anderson tweaked his hamstring in practice and will likely now enter this game as questionable. He has been a huge difference-maker for this passing offense. The Jets will unlikely get much going on the ground, as their run offense ranks 28th and has played the third-easiest schedule of run defenses, while the Broncos' run defense ranks second in the league and Denver is coming off of a humiliating loss to the Dolphins. The Broncos' defense should be in better shape, but their offense has been a disaster; and while I expect Trevor Siemian to play much better than he did last week, this offense needs a lot of work.
Pick: Lean Jets
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Jets 23, Denver 20
The pick: New York Jets and the over -- NYJ -1, 41
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Arizona
Phil Steele's take: If you look at the standings, this one seems simple, as Tennessee is sitting as the No. 3 seed in the AFC (won six of its past seven games). Arizona was thinking playoffs, but it has lost some key players and is barely mathematically alive in the rough NFC at 5-7. Tennessee is actually the most unimpressive 8-4 team I have seen in a long time. If you take away a pair of Derrick Henry touchdown runs late in games, when a first down would have had them going to a knee, the Titans would be on a 1-5-3 ATS run over their past nine games. That one cover cost me an ATS winner, as Indianapolis blew a 16-6 lead in the fourth quarter, with the Titans winning by four as a 3.5-point favorite. Arizona has outgained every opponent at home and is plus-46 yards per game there this season, including a win over what I consider to be a stronger Jacksonville squad.
ATS pick: Arizona
Warren Sharp's take: The Cardinals played the Rams closer than the final score indicated last week. After facing two of the NFL's best teams, Arizona has to face yet another team slated to make the playoffs in the 8-4 Titans, but Tennessee is not nearly as good as its record. And after facing the No. 1 and No. 3 pass defenses of the Jags and Rams the past two weeks, the 25th-ranked Titans should be a welcome sight for Bruce Arians and Blaine Gabbert. On the other side of the ball, a major injury is CB Patrick Peterson, who was limited in practice on Wednesday but did not practice at all on Thursday. His status will be extremely important for the Cardinals to have a chance in this game.
Lean: Cardinals
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Arizona 22
The pick: Arizona and the over -- ARZ +3, 43
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, with their recent 6-2 mark pushing them into a first-place tie in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders. The Redskins are headed in the opposite direction, losing five of their past seven, but they are still mathematically alive in the NFC. Washington has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and lost at Minnesota by eight, blew a 15-point lead against the Saints with three minutes remaining and were minus-four in turnovers last week against the Cowboys in the eventual 24-point defeat. Washington has been good enough to win at Seattle and at the Los Angeles Rams, and they are plus-10 yards per game versus that brutal schedule.
The Chargers have taken the opposite tack, as they have faced the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL, with their six wins coming against the Giants; a Raiders squad that just got Carr back from injury; Denver; a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team; Dallas without stars Ezekiel Elliott and Lee; and Cleveland. The Chargers are only plus-28 yards per game, despite the light list of opponents. Chargers fans often are outnumbered in their temporary home venue, and they have a showdown at Kansas City on deck. I like the value with the Redskins this week and, worst-case scenario, quarterback Kirk Cousins providing backdoor potential.
ATS pick: Lean on Washington
Warren Sharp's take: After a massive drubbing at the hands of division rival Dallas, the 5-7 Redskins are all but eliminated from the postseason. They sit 11th in the NFC and are squarely behind the 6-6 Cowboys -- who swept the Redskins this year -- and five other teams for the wild-card spot (two of which have already won eight games). However, this game is extremely meaningful for the Chargers, who are in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for the AFC West crown. The Redskins' defense has collapsed in recent weeks, though most of those losses came against really strong run teams. The Redskins' lone two wins since Week 8 were against the Seahawks and Giants, neither of which can run the ball; the Chargers fall into that category, ranking 30th in rushing efficiency. But the problem will be the Chargers' pass rush against an injured Redskins offensive line, as well as the Chargers' balanced offense, which has intelligently shifted to one that is more pass-heavy.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 26, Washington 19
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the under -- LAC -6, 46
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-2)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles were regarded as the best team in the NFL at 10-1 and in control of the NFC. They outgained Seattle last week on the road (425-310) in a surprising 14-point defeat and are now going into Los Angeles, trying to avoid falling all the way back to the No. 3 seed in the conference. The Rams lost at Minnesota two weeks ago but stopped the Saints' eight-game win streak in their last home matchup. The Rams might be just 4-2 at home, but they have a 28-13 point edge and are plus-115 yards per game inside Memorial Coliseum. Tight end Zach Ertz is questionable for the Eagles, and Jared Goff has an 11:2 TD:INT ratio the past five games. The Rams have the best special teams in the NFL, but the Eagles have are fifth best, which negates an edge Los Angeles usually has. The Eagles (who remained in California following last week's game) are the best team in the NFL statistically at plus-92 yards per game, and the Rams are actually just minus-46 yards per game over their past three. There will not be many times this season the Eagles are a 'dog, and I love to play on the premier teams in the NFL when they are coming off a loss.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp's take: The Rams and their second most pass-heavy offense might have found more to like in the Eagles secondary earlier in the season, but the Eagles pass defense has really stiffened up of late. However, they have not faced a pass offense that schemes and audibles as much as the Rams do under Sean McVay. That matchup will be fascinating to watch. The most intriguing angle to this game will be how the Eagles start the game. I felt Doug Pederson really insulted Carson Wentz as well as the Seahawks offense last week by going so ultra-conservative to start the game. Wentz barely threw the ball downfield, and it was as if Pederson didn't have confidence in his ability to do so against a really good defense on the road. Philadelphia should try to attack the run defense of the Rams, which has faced just one top-10 run offense since week 5, but the Eagles must still attack deep -- and do so early and often. Zach Ertz, who has started to practice again but is still in the concussion protocol, is extremely essential this week.
Lean: Eagles
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 26, Philadelphia 25
The pick: Philadelphia and the over -- PHI +2, 49.5
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Total:
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars have come through like clockwork this season, but this is my strongest play of the week. Jacksonville opened the season with an impressive win over Houston, followed by a poor loss to Tennessee. Every ATS win has been followed by an ATS loss, and vice versa. The Jaguars do have a big edge with their fierce pass rush, having recorded 45 sacks and taking on an average Seattle offensive line. All the other edges go to Seattle. For all the gloom and doom over the Seahawks' defensive injuries, Seattle just held the potent Eagles to a season-low 10 points. The Seahawks own regular-season games in the month of December and January at 20-5 under Pete Carroll (best record in the NFL during that span since he took over in 2010). The Jaguars are on just a 2-17 ATS mark against NFC foes dating back to 2013.
ATS pick: Seattle
Erin Rynning's take: When we've seen this Seattle offense struggle, it's from an overwhelmed offensive line. Well, the Jaguars have flashed the best defensive front in football all season, while leading the NFL in sacks at 45. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost a tremendous amount of talent on the defensive side of the football in Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor & Co. Their defense has shown issue stopping the run at various times throughout the campaign, while the Jaguars lead the NFL in rush yards per game. The Seahawks just haven't shown their consistent form from years past, as they bounce negatively off their huge Sunday night win against the Eagles.
Pick: Jaguars
Warren Sharp's take: So far this season against top-six defenses, the Seahawks are 3-0, defeating the Rams 16-10, the Cardinals 22-16 and the Eagles 24-10 -- and two of those three games were on the road. With the status of the Seahawks' secondary, they are substantially better defending the run than the pass, which works opposite of what the Jaguars' offense would like to do, which is to run the ball as much as possible. This game hinges on whether the Jaguars can see any success running the ball and whether the acquisition of Duane Brown at left tackle for the Seahawks is enough to slow down the NFL's best pass rush of the Jaguars. This matchup will be fascinating, but at the current line of 2.5, I don't see the line as being off by enough to initiate value.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Seattle 16
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX -3, 39
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS ESPN INSDER
It's Week 14 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Cincinnati
Phil Steele's take: Chicago has a solid defense that is holding foes to 13 yards per game below their season average (No. 11 in the NFL). While its offense was serviceable for most of the season, the Bears have managed just eight first downs and less than 150 yards the past two weeks in losses to the Eagles and 49ers. The Bengals put up a great fight in last week's 23-20 loss to the Steelers, but the loss all but ended their playoff hopes. While the Bears are being outgained by 58 yards per game, they are more than capable of staying within a touchdown of a deflated Bengals team that is being outgained by 53 yards per game.
ATS pick: Lean on Chicago
Warren Sharp's take: After another game in which the final score was closer than it should have been (thanks to non-offensive touchdowns), the Bears travel to take on a beaten-up team in the Bengals. Chicago has had the fortune of playing three of its past four games at home, and the last time the Bears were on the road, they lost 31-3 to the Eagles. That said, it's hard to know what defensive players the Bengals will actually trot onto the field, given they lost a number to concussions in their game against the Steelers last week. The Bengals' run defense is much different without Vontaze Burfict at linebacker, and he's likely out this week, so the Bears could have a slight edge there. The mental state of the Bengals also will be a question mark, after blowing the big lead to the Steelers.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 18, Chicago 15
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI +6, 37.5
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: Everyone, including myself, figured that the Packers' season was over when Aaron Rodgers went down. They were 4-1 but dropped five of the next six. Last week, they were outgained 395-204 in regulation at home by the Buccaneers but pulled out the game in overtime, all with Rodgers inching closer to a return. The Browns have played four of their past five games on the road, but last week was just the second time all season that they had been outgained by more than 100 yards (and they still managed to cover). Cleveland has a two-game lead in the race for the No. 1 draft pick. Cleveland actually has a top-10 defense but somehow manages to find ways not to cover (3-9 ATS). Even with Rodgers playing five games, Green Bay is minus-49 yards per game this season. (The Browns are only minus-19 yards per game despite being winless.) This might be the Browns' best chance at a win this season, and as long as they are getting at least a field goal, I will side with the Browns.
ATS pick: Lean on Cleveland
Warren Sharp's take: The Packers' run-heavy strategy won't work so well against the Browns, as Cleveland has the No. 2 run defense in the NFL. It's better than any run defense the Packers have faced this season; they have played just three games against top-10 run defenses this season, and they lost all three games: 23-0, 23-10 and 31-28. So it will be on Brett Hundley to open things up, and I'm not sure if that is the ticket for success. On the other side of the ball, the Browns just received their top two WRs back, as Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman started together last week for the first time.
Last week, against the Chargers, they weren't as successful, but the Chargers allow just 6.5 yards per target to WRs, which ranks second best in the league. In fact, during the past three weeks, the Browns' offense has faced the No. 1 (Jaguars), No. 2 (Chargers) and No. 4 (Bengals) defenses in yards per attempt allowed to WRs. In the Packers, they will get to face the No. 31-ranked team, which is allowing a massive 8.7 yards per attempt to WRs. The Packers also allow 55 percent of WR targets to grade as successful, also No. 31.
Play: Browns +3.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 21, Cleveland 19
The pick: Cleveland +3
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: Many weeks ago, I mentioned that the Raiders could still make the playoffs. They have won three of their past four, with the only loss coming in Mexico City to the altitude-hardened Patriots. The Raiders have beaten three of the NFL's weakest teams during that stretch, but who is to say that these Chiefs don't fall into that category? Over the past four weeks, the Chiefs are 0-4, with losses to the Giants, Bills and Jets (minus-13 yards per game during that stretch). Last week, Oakland was down its top two wide receivers in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, but it had a 391-219 yardage edge versus the Giants. Oakland is plus-48 yards per game during its past six games. Everyone knows the Raiders have a poor defense, but they are allowing 346 yards per game on the season, while the Chiefs are surprisingly allowing 382 yards per game (third worst in the NFL). Oakland had a 32-19 first-down edge on the Chiefs earlier this season, and the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 trips to Arrowhead.
ATS pick: Lean on Oakland
Erin Rynning's take: One can look at the numbers and see the Raiders ranked 16th on offense and 22nd on defense. However, make no mistake, this is a team that's much more offense-first with Derek Carr. Over the past two weeks, this still-weak Raiders secondary played Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch. The Chiefs had struggled offensively, until they woke up last week averaging a ridiculous 10.3 yards per play. Teams have adjusted to them taking away the big play, but again, plays can be made against this Raiders secondary. These two teams combined for 930 yards and 61 points in the first matchup.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: As predicted last week, the Chiefs lost to the explosive pass offense of the Jets. It remains Kansas City's largest deficiency on defense, and the Raiders have an even more explosive pass offense than do the Jets. That said, they will be without Cooper, but they do receive back the services of Crabtree. This is an absolutely huge game for the AFC West, with both teams sitting at 6-6 in the division (and Oakland winning the first matchup this season). There are matchup edges for both offenses, whether they decide to run or pass the ball. The question becomes whether the Chiefs are able to continue the more explosive passing offense they unveiled in New York last week versus the Jets. Last week, the Chiefs went 76 percent pass, including 73 percent pass on early downs, which is a very high rate. I'll be intriguing to seeing whether, in such a huge game, the Chiefs elect for a more ball-control style of offense or if they go pass-heavy with high risk and high reward.
Pick: Lean Chiefs
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Oakland 21
The pick: Oakland and the under -- OAK +4, 47
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: The Giants just fired head coach Ben McAdoo and reinstated Eli Manning to the starting quarterback job. Something I have followed for decades is that teams generally play well the first game under an interim head coach (in this case Steve Spagnuolo). Last week, Oakland was down its top two wide receivers in Crabtree and Cooper but had a 391-219 yardage edge in the victory. Dallas destroyed the Giants with a 392-233 yardage edge in the opener, and the Giants never recovered. While the Giants would love to return the favor, Dallas should get back linebacker Sean Lee here (missed last three) and last week's win over Washington kept its slim playoff hopes alive. The Giants' minus-98 yards per game is the worst in the NFL, and making it even worse is that is has been against the No. 24 schedule. Only once all season have the Giants covered back-to-back games, and the spread is manageable for the Cowboys.
ATS pick: Lean on Dallas
Warren Sharp's take: This game hinges entirely on the energy the Giants approach it with. It's far more narrative driven than matchup driven. The Giants fired their head coach and GM, and reinstated their starting QB, while allowing their beloved defensive coordinator Spagunolo, to take over as head coach. At home against the rival Cowboys, this game is massive. The return of Lee at LB is a big addition for the Cowboys defense, and they have extra rest to prepare for this game. If the Giants are able to establish a run game which can keep their defense fresher, as the Cowboys are likely to bring their run game and try to wear down the 24th-ranked Giants run defense.
Lean: Giants
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 22, New York Giants 17
The pick: Dallas and the under -- DAL -4.5, 41.5
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: I have called the Panthers a playoff team since Week 1 this season, and they had a firm grasp on a postseason berth until they lost at New Orleans last week. They are now in the No. 6 spot and cannot afford many more mistakes. Minnesota is in firm control of its division and is now the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Vikings have perhaps the best defense in the NFL, while Case Keenum has proved to be much more than a game manager, hitting 68 percent of his passes with a 16:5 TD:INT ratio. The Panthers' defense was near the top two weeks ago, but it slipped to No. 6 after allowing 391 and 400 yards in its past two games. I do feel Minnesota is the more complete team at this point, but the Vikings are on their third-straight road game (including two marquee wins), while the Panthers are at home with their backs to the wall. It is time for Superman to return this weekend for the Panthers. Prior to last week's games, Carolina was favored by 2.5 points in this matchup. A five-point overreaction is too much.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Warren Sharp's take: This game comes down to what happens in the first quarter. And it relates entirely to Cam Newton's ability to stay clean in the pocket and operate downfield. It's no surprise that the Panthers are 0-3 against top-10 pass rushes this season, because if Newton gets knocked around, his front-running style turtles up and falls into a more passive mode. The Vikings' pass rush ranks only average, which should slightly favor Newton. That said, the Panthers have played the fourth-easiest schedule of pass rushes this year, and the Vikings' defense is still more than capable of getting pressure, especially with the Panthers' below-average run game and the potential for Minnesota's sixth-ranked run defense to make Carolina more one-dimensional than it would originally hope to be.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 21, Carolina 20
The pick: Carolina and the under -- CAR +2.5, 41
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Houston has lost its top two defensive players and quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season and is playing a guard at left tackle who had three consecutive false starts at one crucial point last week versus playoff contender Tennessee. The Texans have lost five of their past six games, but they are not as bad as all of that would indicate. Houston has outgained each of its past three foes. San Francisco opened the season 0-9 but has won two of its past three game. The Niners actually have the No. 9 offense and No. 6 defense in the NFL over the past four weeks. Jimmy Garoppolo hit 26-of-37 for 293 passing yards last week in his first start for the 49ers, but while they finished with a 388-147 yardage edge, they settled for five field goals in the matchup, including the game-winning 24-yarder with :04 remaining. While I could make a case for both teams, I will go with the angles here, as Houston is on an 11-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite over the past three years, while San Francisco is just 4-16 ATS outside of its division dating back to late in the 2015 season, when it dropped a matchup in Cleveland.
ATS pick: Lean on Houston
Erin Rynning's take: Ever apparent in the current landscape of the NFL, a competent quarterback can make all the difference in the world. Of course, the 49ers hope they found their man in Garoppolo, who looks like a clear upgrade. He and the 49ers' offense played much better last week than their 15 total points indicate. Garoppolo was 26 for 37 passing with 293 yards. Overall, the 49ers garnered 388 yards and controlled the game. The Texans have lost key talent on their defense and rank 20th in the NFL, as they've allowed 23 touchdown passes on the season.
Pick: 49ers and lean over
Warren Sharp's take: Garoppolo definitely made a difference for the 49ers last week, but they still were not productive inside the red zone. The 49ers' defense also looked substantially better, but a function of that might have simply been the anemic offense of the Bears. That said, the Bears were a strong rushing team, and they mustered only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and posted a 26 percent success rate. Houston has a balanced offense, but it lost a substantial number of receivers last week, as pass-catchers C.J. Fiedorowicz and Bruce Ellington left the game (they'll miss the rest of the season), and Braxton Miller and Alfred Blue left with concussions (questionable to go this week). This begs the question of whether the Texans will rely more on the run (the strength of the 49ers' defense, if there is one) or will simply funnel a ton of targets to their top WR, DeAndre Hopkins.
Pick: Lean 49ers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 23, San Francisco 22
The pick: San Francisco and the over -- SF +3, 43
New York Jets (-1) at Denver Broncos
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Two weeks into the season, Denver had beaten both the Chargers and Cowboys at home by a combined 28 points and was considered a strong playoff contender with its defense. Ten weeks later, they still have the No. 5 defense in the NFL and are plus-20 yards per game. After two weeks, the Jets were 0-2 with a pair of big losses and were thought to be tanking the season. They are still minus-25 yards per game after 12 weeks. The Jets are just 2-4 on the road and minus-124 yards per game away from home. Denver is plus-78 yards at home. Given that criteria in September, you would have thought that Denver would be a double-digit home favorite! The Broncos are actually a home underdog, however. All of those numbers say this could be the week that the Broncos rise up and snap their eight-game losing streak. The overriding factor is that Denver has now lost eight in a row ATS, and when you play on a streak, you win many times and lose only once; I will play on the Jets, who are on a 7-2-1 ATS run and won for me last week in their upset of Kansas City.
ATS pick: Lean on New York Jets
Warren Sharp's take: The Jets have been one of the most fun teams to watch over the second half of the season. One slight problem emerged this week, as WR Robby Anderson tweaked his hamstring in practice and will likely now enter this game as questionable. He has been a huge difference-maker for this passing offense. The Jets will unlikely get much going on the ground, as their run offense ranks 28th and has played the third-easiest schedule of run defenses, while the Broncos' run defense ranks second in the league and Denver is coming off of a humiliating loss to the Dolphins. The Broncos' defense should be in better shape, but their offense has been a disaster; and while I expect Trevor Siemian to play much better than he did last week, this offense needs a lot of work.
Pick: Lean Jets
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Jets 23, Denver 20
The pick: New York Jets and the over -- NYJ -1, 41
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Arizona
Phil Steele's take: If you look at the standings, this one seems simple, as Tennessee is sitting as the No. 3 seed in the AFC (won six of its past seven games). Arizona was thinking playoffs, but it has lost some key players and is barely mathematically alive in the rough NFC at 5-7. Tennessee is actually the most unimpressive 8-4 team I have seen in a long time. If you take away a pair of Derrick Henry touchdown runs late in games, when a first down would have had them going to a knee, the Titans would be on a 1-5-3 ATS run over their past nine games. That one cover cost me an ATS winner, as Indianapolis blew a 16-6 lead in the fourth quarter, with the Titans winning by four as a 3.5-point favorite. Arizona has outgained every opponent at home and is plus-46 yards per game there this season, including a win over what I consider to be a stronger Jacksonville squad.
ATS pick: Arizona
Warren Sharp's take: The Cardinals played the Rams closer than the final score indicated last week. After facing two of the NFL's best teams, Arizona has to face yet another team slated to make the playoffs in the 8-4 Titans, but Tennessee is not nearly as good as its record. And after facing the No. 1 and No. 3 pass defenses of the Jags and Rams the past two weeks, the 25th-ranked Titans should be a welcome sight for Bruce Arians and Blaine Gabbert. On the other side of the ball, a major injury is CB Patrick Peterson, who was limited in practice on Wednesday but did not practice at all on Thursday. His status will be extremely important for the Cardinals to have a chance in this game.
Lean: Cardinals
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Arizona 22
The pick: Arizona and the over -- ARZ +3, 43
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, with their recent 6-2 mark pushing them into a first-place tie in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders. The Redskins are headed in the opposite direction, losing five of their past seven, but they are still mathematically alive in the NFC. Washington has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and lost at Minnesota by eight, blew a 15-point lead against the Saints with three minutes remaining and were minus-four in turnovers last week against the Cowboys in the eventual 24-point defeat. Washington has been good enough to win at Seattle and at the Los Angeles Rams, and they are plus-10 yards per game versus that brutal schedule.
The Chargers have taken the opposite tack, as they have faced the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL, with their six wins coming against the Giants; a Raiders squad that just got Carr back from injury; Denver; a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team; Dallas without stars Ezekiel Elliott and Lee; and Cleveland. The Chargers are only plus-28 yards per game, despite the light list of opponents. Chargers fans often are outnumbered in their temporary home venue, and they have a showdown at Kansas City on deck. I like the value with the Redskins this week and, worst-case scenario, quarterback Kirk Cousins providing backdoor potential.
ATS pick: Lean on Washington
Warren Sharp's take: After a massive drubbing at the hands of division rival Dallas, the 5-7 Redskins are all but eliminated from the postseason. They sit 11th in the NFC and are squarely behind the 6-6 Cowboys -- who swept the Redskins this year -- and five other teams for the wild-card spot (two of which have already won eight games). However, this game is extremely meaningful for the Chargers, who are in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for the AFC West crown. The Redskins' defense has collapsed in recent weeks, though most of those losses came against really strong run teams. The Redskins' lone two wins since Week 8 were against the Seahawks and Giants, neither of which can run the ball; the Chargers fall into that category, ranking 30th in rushing efficiency. But the problem will be the Chargers' pass rush against an injured Redskins offensive line, as well as the Chargers' balanced offense, which has intelligently shifted to one that is more pass-heavy.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 26, Washington 19
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the under -- LAC -6, 46
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-2)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles were regarded as the best team in the NFL at 10-1 and in control of the NFC. They outgained Seattle last week on the road (425-310) in a surprising 14-point defeat and are now going into Los Angeles, trying to avoid falling all the way back to the No. 3 seed in the conference. The Rams lost at Minnesota two weeks ago but stopped the Saints' eight-game win streak in their last home matchup. The Rams might be just 4-2 at home, but they have a 28-13 point edge and are plus-115 yards per game inside Memorial Coliseum. Tight end Zach Ertz is questionable for the Eagles, and Jared Goff has an 11:2 TD:INT ratio the past five games. The Rams have the best special teams in the NFL, but the Eagles have are fifth best, which negates an edge Los Angeles usually has. The Eagles (who remained in California following last week's game) are the best team in the NFL statistically at plus-92 yards per game, and the Rams are actually just minus-46 yards per game over their past three. There will not be many times this season the Eagles are a 'dog, and I love to play on the premier teams in the NFL when they are coming off a loss.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp's take: The Rams and their second most pass-heavy offense might have found more to like in the Eagles secondary earlier in the season, but the Eagles pass defense has really stiffened up of late. However, they have not faced a pass offense that schemes and audibles as much as the Rams do under Sean McVay. That matchup will be fascinating to watch. The most intriguing angle to this game will be how the Eagles start the game. I felt Doug Pederson really insulted Carson Wentz as well as the Seahawks offense last week by going so ultra-conservative to start the game. Wentz barely threw the ball downfield, and it was as if Pederson didn't have confidence in his ability to do so against a really good defense on the road. Philadelphia should try to attack the run defense of the Rams, which has faced just one top-10 run offense since week 5, but the Eagles must still attack deep -- and do so early and often. Zach Ertz, who has started to practice again but is still in the concussion protocol, is extremely essential this week.
Lean: Eagles
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 26, Philadelphia 25
The pick: Philadelphia and the over -- PHI +2, 49.5
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Total:
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars have come through like clockwork this season, but this is my strongest play of the week. Jacksonville opened the season with an impressive win over Houston, followed by a poor loss to Tennessee. Every ATS win has been followed by an ATS loss, and vice versa. The Jaguars do have a big edge with their fierce pass rush, having recorded 45 sacks and taking on an average Seattle offensive line. All the other edges go to Seattle. For all the gloom and doom over the Seahawks' defensive injuries, Seattle just held the potent Eagles to a season-low 10 points. The Seahawks own regular-season games in the month of December and January at 20-5 under Pete Carroll (best record in the NFL during that span since he took over in 2010). The Jaguars are on just a 2-17 ATS mark against NFC foes dating back to 2013.
ATS pick: Seattle
Erin Rynning's take: When we've seen this Seattle offense struggle, it's from an overwhelmed offensive line. Well, the Jaguars have flashed the best defensive front in football all season, while leading the NFL in sacks at 45. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost a tremendous amount of talent on the defensive side of the football in Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor & Co. Their defense has shown issue stopping the run at various times throughout the campaign, while the Jaguars lead the NFL in rush yards per game. The Seahawks just haven't shown their consistent form from years past, as they bounce negatively off their huge Sunday night win against the Eagles.
Pick: Jaguars
Warren Sharp's take: So far this season against top-six defenses, the Seahawks are 3-0, defeating the Rams 16-10, the Cardinals 22-16 and the Eagles 24-10 -- and two of those three games were on the road. With the status of the Seahawks' secondary, they are substantially better defending the run than the pass, which works opposite of what the Jaguars' offense would like to do, which is to run the ball as much as possible. This game hinges on whether the Jaguars can see any success running the ball and whether the acquisition of Duane Brown at left tackle for the Seahawks is enough to slow down the NFL's best pass rush of the Jaguars. This matchup will be fascinating, but at the current line of 2.5, I don't see the line as being off by enough to initiate value.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Seattle 16
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX -3, 39
