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SOUTH FLORIDA -2½ -110 over Florida Int
7:00 PM EST. The South Florida Bulls are a disappointing 4-5 this season after dropping three straight games before breaking for final exams. On its current losing skid, USF has been blown out by 23 (App State) and 18 (EMU), with the latter coming at home on November 26th. Sandwiched in between those losses was a 79-78 overtime defeat at Elon, but there was some good, as the Bulls did cover as a +9½ point pooch. While USF's start to the season has been poor, it's been largely self-inflicted, as the Bulls have been without high profile transfer, senior forward Isaiah Manderson, who was benched by the team for the first six games. Manderson returned in the EMU game and has logged 20 minutes a night while shooting 9-for-19 and bringing down 10 boards in a role off the bench since joining the lineup. As the prized 6-10 forward gets his legs, those numbers should increase, as he gives the Bulls a presence in the low post they did not have prior. USF has benefited from another grad transfer that's making an impact in senior guard Stephan Jiggetts. Jiggets has scored 109 points so far this season and became the first player in almost two years to log more than 40 minutes in a game for the Bulls.

Like USF, the Golden Panthers of Florida International have been idle since December 2nd, but unlike the Bulls, FIU won three of its last four before hitting the books. In their previous game, the Golden Panthers crushed South Alabama 87-58 as a +2-point dog, and before that, FIU beat Florida National by 18. A pair of double-digit wins will stand out in the market, especially that near 30-point beat down of the USA Jaguars.

In their current forms, the Golden Panthers have some appeal here, but we are in the business of looking for overvalued and undervalued programs. We trust we've done that with USF, who hasn't just been losing but has been getting crushed, while FIU is blitzing everyone in its path. Further inflating FIU's stock is its record this season against the spread, which is an impressive 3-1-1 with its other games being off the board. Meanwhile, South Florida appears much harder to trust, as the Bulls are just .500 ATS. While we do not factor meaningless trends into our handicapping, we are aware of them, as it does influence the market. We read today that the favorite in this series has had the bulk of the success which may be true, but these schools have not played each other in a decade. On the surface, taking points with what appears to be the better team looks like the prudent choice. Our job is to look deeper and find the reasons why the oddsmakers opened with the Bulls being a 5½-point choice. We trust we’ve done that and have outlined it above and now have an opportunity to capitalize on a wrong market perception (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
 

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I liked the line drop as well, but became hesitant when it was time to pull the trigger. Nunez and Stamps have just become eligible in the last 2-3 games and it looks like they have added some scoring punch to the FIU lineup. May sit this one out. Good luck, always enjoy your perspective.
 

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I liked the line drop as well, but became hesitant when it was time to pull the trigger. Nunez and Stamps have just become eligible in the last 2-3 games and it looks like they have added some scoring punch to the FIU lineup. May sit this one out. Good luck, always enjoy your perspective.

Thanks LowTide good luck to you too.
Thanks and good luck to both Buck and Chris as well.
 

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To clarify, Nunez appeared in the last 2 games and stamps appeared in 2 of the first 3 games. I have sloppy handwriting and can’t read my own notes sometimes. I hate posting erroneous information. Anyway,on to the next game and looking forward to your future insight.
 

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